Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills
Updated · model ratings
Saturday, December 19, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 5.5 in Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills, NFL Week 15 2026 — 65% to win, and a Buffalo December game that has run a median 32°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC19CHIBUF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bills at 60c or below (or Bears at 30c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CHI
+1.4
BUF
+3.8
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Bears
35%
model win prob
Bills
65%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
40%
Madden 27
60%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC19CHIBUF hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bills at 60c or below, or the Bears at 30c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bears at Bills
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Bills −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Cold-weather math: Bears at Bills in December
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 16 Buffalo home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 32°F with 8 mph of wind, and 88% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 22°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +3.8 for the Bills, +1.4 for the Bears, and lands on the Bills by 5.5 (65%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.1 (2nd of 32) against a Bears defense at -1.1 (19th) — 5.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+2.0, 8th) meets the Bills defense (-0.7, 16th), a 2.7-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bills at 10.1 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Bears at 8.8 (favored in 11) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Bills' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Bears'.
Scheduling note: this is a Saturday game — one of 2 that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Bills won 35-13 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Bills are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 65% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC19CHIBUF, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Bills 65%, Bears 35%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Bills contracts a buy at 60c or below and Bears contracts a buy at 30c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bears vs Bills on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC19CHIBUF
- Market-implied (Bills)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Bills)
- 65%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC19CHIBUF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Bills at 60c or below, or the Bears at 30c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bears vs Bills trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bills | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bears vs Bills — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bears vs Bills in Week 15?
Our power-rating model picks the Bills by 5.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Bears, for a projected score of Bills 29, Bears 23 on a ratings-implied 51.9-point total. The Bills rate 4th of 32 (+3.8) and the Bears 10th (+1.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC19CHIBUF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for Buffalo games in December?
Across 16 Buffalo home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 32°F with 8 mph wind, 88% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 22°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 5.5-point line.
How do you take a position on Bears vs Bills?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC19CHIBUF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bills at 60c or below, or the Bears at 30c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bills host the Bears?
Chicago Bears visit the Buffalo Bills on Saturday, December 19, 2026 — a Saturday game in NFL Week 15, at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
What does the model project for the Bills and Bears this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bills at 10.1 wins (favored in 13) and the Bears at 8.8 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Bears', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bears vs Bills?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC19CHIBUF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Bills at 60c or below or the Bears at 30c or below, off a 5.5-point line.
Can you trade Bears vs Bills on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 15 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC19CHIBUF. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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