Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills

Saturday, December 19, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Bears

37%

model win prob

Bills

63%

model win prob

Model line

Bills −4.5

Kalshi (Bills)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bills — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Chicago Bears+0.711thAverage

Buffalo Bills+2.54thPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 15, the Chicago Bears travel to face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bills 4th of 32 (Playoff tier, +2.5) and the Bears 11th (Average tier, +0.7). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bills by 4.5 — a 63% win probability for the Bills.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 63% (Bills) / 37% (Bears) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bears vs Bills — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bears vs Bills in Week 15?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bills by 4.5 points and gives them a 63% win probability over the Bears. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bears vs Bills?

Home win probability 63% (Bills), away 37% (Bears). That comes from a power-rating differential of +1.9 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bills rate 4th of 32 (Playoff tier), the Bears 11th (Average tier).

Can you trade Bears vs Bills on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.