NFL Week 12 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 12 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 16 games is the Jaguars at 69% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 12 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Packers at Rams — Model winner: Rams (64%)
- Bears at Lions — Model winner: Lions (62%)
- Eagles at Cowboys — Model winner: Cowboys (57%)
- Chiefs at Bills — Model winner: Bills (65%)
- Broncos at Steelers — Model winner: Steelers (53%)
- Saints at Bengals — Model winner: Bengals (63%)
- Raiders at Browns — Model winner: Browns (68%)
- Ravens at Texans — Model winner: Texans (60%)
- Giants at Colts — Model winner: Colts (62%)
- Jets at Dolphins — Model winner: Dolphins (61%)
- Falcons at Vikings — Model winner: Vikings (52%)
- Titans at Jaguars — Model winner: Jaguars (69%)
- Commanders at Cardinals — Model winner: Cardinals (50%)
- Seahawks at 49ers — Model winner: Seahawks (56%)
- Patriots at Chargers — Model winner: Patriots (61%)
- Panthers at Buccaneers — Model winner: Buccaneers (61%)
All 16 Week 12 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
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Week 12 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 16 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Rams over Packers64%—
- Lions over Bears62%—
- Cowboys over Eagles57%—
- Bills over Chiefs65%—
- Steelers over Broncos53%—
- Bengals over Saints63%—
- Browns over Raiders68%—
- Texans over Ravens60%—
- Colts over Giants62%—
- Dolphins over Jets61%—
- Vikings over Falcons52%—
- Jaguars over Titans69%—
- Cardinals over Commanders50%—
- Seahawks over 49ers56%—
- Patriots over Chargers61%—
- Buccaneers over Panthers61%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 12 projected scores
- PackersatRams23.4–28.051.4
- BearsatLions22.0–25.647.6
- EaglesatCowboys24.0–26.350.3
- ChiefsatBills21.1–28.449.5
- BroncosatSteelers21.7–22.544.1
- SaintsatBengals20.8–25.045.7
- RaidersatBrowns15.2–21.837.0
- RavensatTexans19.2–22.241.4
- GiantsatColts23.1–26.749.8
- JetsatDolphins20.4–23.844.2
- FalconsatVikings21.3–21.742.9
- TitansatJaguars17.8–26.644.4
- CommandersatCardinals24.9–25.150.0
- Seahawksat49ers26.3–24.350.6
- PatriotsatChargers24.7–21.245.9
- PanthersatBuccaneers21.7–24.846.5
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 12 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 12 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 12 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 16 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 12 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 12 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 12 games, with its win probability. Rams over Packers (64%); Lions over Bears (62%); Cowboys over Eagles (57%); Bills over Chiefs (65%); Steelers over Broncos (53%); Bengals over Saints (63%); Browns over Raiders (68%); Texans over Ravens (60%); Colts over Giants (62%); Dolphins over Jets (61%); Vikings over Falcons (52%); Jaguars over Titans (69%); Cardinals over Commanders (50%); Seahawks over 49ers (56%); Patriots over Chargers (61%); Buccaneers over Panthers (61%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 12?
Projected scores, winner first: Rams 28.0, Packers 23.4; Lions 25.6, Bears 22.0; Cowboys 26.3, Eagles 24.0; Bills 28.4, Chiefs 21.1; Steelers 22.5, Broncos 21.7; Bengals 25.0, Saints 20.8; Browns 21.8, Raiders 15.2; Texans 22.2, Ravens 19.2; Colts 26.7, Giants 23.1; Dolphins 23.8, Jets 20.4; Vikings 21.7, Falcons 21.3; Jaguars 26.6, Titans 17.8; Cardinals 25.1, Commanders 24.9; Seahawks 26.3, 49ers 24.3; Patriots 24.7, Chargers 21.2; Buccaneers 24.8, Panthers 21.7. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 12 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.