NFL Week 12 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated Β· model ratings
Quick Answer
As of October 28, 2026, the Week 12 slate is not loaded yet.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability and straight-up winner; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Week 12 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 16 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open. 16 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so they carry no call yet.
- Packers at Rams Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Bears at Lions Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Eagles at Cowboys Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Chiefs at Bills Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Broncos at Steelers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Saints at Bengals Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Raiders at Browns Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Ravens at Texans Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Giants at Colts Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Jets at Dolphins Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Falcons at Vikings Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Titans at Jaguars Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Commanders at Cardinals Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Seahawks at 49ers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Patriots at Chargers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Panthers at Buccaneers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored β it is the marketβs number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the modelβs own read. The modelβs separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winnerβs contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play β the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles Β· DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 12 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
- Packers at Rams β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bears at Lions β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Eagles at Cowboys β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Chiefs at Bills β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Broncos at Steelers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Saints at Bengals β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Raiders at Browns β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Ravens at Texans β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Giants at Colts β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Jets at Dolphins β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Falcons at Vikings β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Titans at Jaguars β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Commanders at Cardinals β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Seahawks at 49ers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Patriots at Chargers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Panthers at Buccaneers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
All 16 Week 12 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the modelβs own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market β β the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week β the defensive injury cluster board.
Week 12 QB & injury watch
Where a quarterback's status moves our number. An unconfirmed starter gets two lines that collapse to one when the team names him; an unvetted room gets no line until it is.
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Packers at Rams because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Packers at Rams β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Bears at Lions because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Bears at Lions β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Eagles at Cowboys because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Eagles at Cowboys β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Chiefs at Bills because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Chiefs at Bills β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Broncos at Steelers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Broncos at Steelers β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Saints at Bengals because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Saints at Bengals β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Raiders at Browns because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Raiders at Browns β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Ravens at Texans because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Ravens at Texans β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Giants at Colts because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Giants at Colts β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Jets at Dolphins because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Jets at Dolphins β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Falcons at Vikings because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Falcons at Vikings β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Titans at Jaguars because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Titans at Jaguars β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Commanders at Cardinals because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Commanders at Cardinals β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Seahawks at 49ers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Seahawks at 49ers β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Patriots at Chargers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Patriots at Chargers β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Panthers at Buccaneers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Panthers at Buccaneers β
How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means β
Live: every Week 12 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board β
Go Pro Β· 26% off your first year
Every NFL game priced against the live Kalshi line, every week β $150/yr
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
Week 12 primetime, live
Run Week 12 yourself
All tools βRankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)
Week 12 players to watch
All players βOne page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
NFL Week 12 predictions β frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 12 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 12 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 16 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 12 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability β the fair value (books) once a game is priced β minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54Β’. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 12 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 12 games, with its win probability. Packers at Rams (QB pending); Bears at Lions (QB pending); Eagles at Cowboys (QB pending); Chiefs at Bills (QB pending); Broncos at Steelers (QB pending); Saints at Bengals (QB pending); Raiders at Browns (QB pending); Ravens at Texans (QB pending); Giants at Colts (QB pending); Jets at Dolphins (QB pending); Falcons at Vikings (QB pending); Titans at Jaguars (QB pending); Commanders at Cardinals (QB pending); Seahawks at 49ers (QB pending); Patriots at Chargers (QB pending); Panthers at Buccaneers (QB pending). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50Β’ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls β the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
How often are the Week 12 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the modelβs own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β trade responsibly.