Wed, Sep 9, 11:15 PM EDT
NEatSEA
Seattle, WA
Our Model
56.9%
SEA win
Kalshi
66¢
SEA YES
Edge
-8.6pp
model − mkt
BUY YES NE @ 35¢
Power ratings: NE 4.64 · SEA 4.49. Projected margin +2.4 for SEA (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: NE 34¢ · SEA 66¢.
2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
Gridiron EdgeGame Edges
2026 NFL Week 1 Predictions: All 16 Games vs. Kalshi Markets
Power-rating + home-field win probabilities vs. live Kalshi prices · 5pp actionable threshold
Last updated: Jul 19, 8:58 PM UTC9 edges7 no-play
Where the Model Disagrees
2026 Week 1 · the biggest gaps between our model and the market, ranked · free
GameModel backsMarketEdge
Edge = our model's win probability for the backed side minus the Kalshi-implied price, in percentage points. Biggest gaps first; only disagreements past our 5pp threshold are shown. When the model and the market converge, that game simply isn't listed here.
2026 NFL · Week 1 · Featured EdgeSun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
BALatIND
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Our Model
58.1%
IND win
Kalshi
36¢
IND YES
Edge
+22.1pp
model − mkt
Verdict: BUY YES IND @ 38¢
Trade on KalshiPower Ratings
BAL-0.36
IND-0.10
Home-field+2.50
Projected margin+2.8
IND favored (2.8 pts)
How We Predict NFL Games
Every 2026 team gets a single number on the points-per-game scale — our 2026 power rating — built from 27 seasons of opponent-adjusted EPA, a Bayesian preseason prior that shrinks last season's results toward the mean, and per-component offense / defense / special-teams shrinkage. To predict a Week 1 game, we take the home team's rating, subtract the away team's rating, add a standard +2.5 home-field bump, and convert that point spread to a win probability through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5 — the standard deviation of single-game margins across modern NFL history.
Then we pull the live Kalshi orderbook for both sides of the matchup, take the mid of the best YES bid and the implied YES ask (100 minus the best NO bid), and compare. If our model probability beats the market by at least 5 percentage points, we recommend buying YES at the actionable side — that's our floor for action, set wide enough to clear typical Kalshi 2–4¢ bid/ask spreads. Anything tighter than 5pp is a pass: real edge, but not enough to overcome friction.
The result for Week 1: 9 games with actionable edges, 7games where the market and our model agree closely enough to skip, and any “quiet markets” listed but not yet trading actively on Kalshi.
All 16 Week 1 Games
NEatSEAThu, Sep 10, 11:35 PM EDT
SFatLA
Melbourne, Australia
Our Model
63.6%
LA win
Kalshi
63¢
LA YES
Edge
+0.6pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: SF 0.73 · LA 5.42. Projected margin +4.7 for LA (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: SF 36¢ · LA 63¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
NOatDET
Detroit, MI
Our Model
68.8%
DET win
Kalshi
76¢
DET YES
Edge
-6.7pp
model − mkt
BUY YES NO @ 26¢
Power ratings: NO -2.05 · DET 2.08. Projected margin +6.6 for DET (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: NO 25¢ · DET 76¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
BALatINDIndianapolis, IN
Our Model
58.1%
IND win
Kalshi
36¢
IND YES
Edge
+22.1pp
model − mkt
BUY YES IND @ 38¢
Power ratings: BAL -0.36 · IND -0.10. Projected margin +2.8 for IND (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: BAL 64¢ · IND 36¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
CHIatCAR
Charlotte, NC
Our Model
48.7%
CAR win
Kalshi
43¢
CAR YES
Edge
+5.7pp
model − mkt
BUY YES CAR @ 44¢
Power ratings: CHI 1.32 · CAR -1.62. Projected margin -0.4 for CAR (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: CHI 57¢ · CAR 43¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
BUFatHOU
Houston, TX
Our Model
53.1%
HOU win
Kalshi
50¢
HOU YES
Edge
+3.6pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: BUF 2.99 · HOU 1.54. Projected margin +1.0 for HOU (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: BUF 50¢ · HOU 50¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
CLEatJAX
Jacksonville, FL
Our Model
72.5%
JAX win
Kalshi
78¢
JAX YES
Edge
-5.0pp
model − mkt
BUY YES CLE @ 27¢
Power ratings: CLE -3.22 · JAX 2.33. Projected margin +8.1 for JAX (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: CLE 25¢ · JAX 78¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
ATLatPIT
Pittsburgh, PA
Our Model
56.8%
PIT win
Kalshi
59¢
PIT YES
Edge
-1.7pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: ATL -1.74 · PIT -1.93. Projected margin +2.3 for PIT (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: ATL 41¢ · PIT 59¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
NYJatTEN
Nashville, TN
Our Model
54.4%
TEN win
Kalshi
57¢
TEN YES
Edge
-2.1pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: NYJ -3.46 · TEN -4.46. Projected margin +1.5 for TEN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: NYJ 42¢ · TEN 57¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
TBatCIN
Cincinnati, OH
Our Model
57.1%
CIN win
Kalshi
65¢
CIN YES
Edge
-7.4pp
model − mkt
BUY YES TB @ 37¢
Power ratings: TB -0.40 · CIN -0.48. Projected margin +2.4 for CIN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: TB 36¢ · CIN 65¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
WASatPHI
Philadelphia, PA
Our Model
67.1%
PHI win
Kalshi
67¢
PHI YES
Edge
+0.6pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: WAS -1.33 · PHI 2.14. Projected margin +6.0 for PHI (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: WAS 34¢ · PHI 67¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
GBatMIN
Minneapolis, MN
Our Model
43.2%
MIN win
Kalshi
53¢
MIN YES
Edge
-9.3pp
model − mkt
BUY YES GB @ 52¢
Power ratings: GB 2.54 · MIN -2.27. Projected margin -2.3 for MIN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: GB 50¢ · MIN 53¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
ARIatLAC
Inglewood, CA
Our Model
69.3%
LAC win
Kalshi
83¢
LAC YES
Edge
-13.2pp
model − mkt
BUY YES ARI @ 22¢
Power ratings: ARI -4.61 · LAC -0.31. Projected margin +6.8 for LAC (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: ARI 20¢ · LAC 83¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
MIAatLV
Las Vegas, NV
Our Model
50.2%
LV win
Kalshi
64¢
LV YES
Edge
-13.3pp
model − mkt
BUY YES MIA @ 36¢
Power ratings: MIA -4.07 · LV -6.51. Projected margin +0.1 for LV (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: MIA 36¢ · LV 64¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM EDT
DALatNYG
East Rutherford, NJ
Our Model
46.5%
NYG win
Kalshi
43¢
NYG YES
Edge
+4.0pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: DAL 1.30 · NYG -2.39. Projected margin -1.2 for NYG (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: DAL 58¢ · NYG 43¢.
Mon, Sep 14, 9:15 PM EDT
DENatKC
Kansas City, MO
Our Model
53.0%
KC win
Kalshi
58¢
KC YES
Edge
-4.5pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: DEN 1.02 · KC -0.45. Projected margin +1.0 for KC (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: DEN 44¢ · KC 58¢.
Every 2026 NFL Week 1 Matchup: Our Model vs. the Kalshi Market
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks — Week 1 Prediction
The Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots at Lumen Field. Our 2026 power rating has SEA at +4.49 and NE at +4.64 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.4-point projected margin in favor of Seattle Seahawks. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 56.9% on SEA and 43.1% on NE. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing SEA YES around 66¢ and NE YES around 34¢. That's a -8.6pp gap pricing SEA too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy NE YES at 35¢.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams — Week 1 Prediction
The Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers at Melbourne Cricket Ground. Our 2026 power rating has LA at +5.42 and SF at +0.73 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 4.7-point projected margin in favor of Los Angeles Rams. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 63.6% on LA and 36.4% on SF. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing LA YES around 63¢ and SF YES around 36¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions — Week 1 Prediction
The Detroit Lions host the New Orleans Saints at Ford Field. Our 2026 power rating has DET at +2.08 and NO at -2.05 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 6.6-point projected margin in favor of Detroit Lions. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 68.8% on DET and 31.2% on NO. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing DET YES around 76¢ and NO YES around 25¢. That's a -6.7pp gap pricing DET too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy NO YES at 26¢.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts — Week 1 Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts host the Baltimore Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has IND at -0.10 and BAL at -0.36 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.8-point projected margin in favor of Indianapolis Colts. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 58.1% on IND and 41.9% on BAL. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing IND YES around 36¢ and BAL YES around 64¢. That's a +22.1pp gap in favor of IND — above our 5pp action floor. Buy IND YES at 38¢.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers — Week 1 Prediction
The Carolina Panthers host the Chicago Bears at Bank of America Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has CAR at -1.62 and CHI at +1.32 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.4-point projected margin in favor of Chicago Bears. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 48.7% on CAR and 51.3% on CHI. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing CAR YES around 43¢ and CHI YES around 57¢. That's a +5.7pp gap in favor of CAR — above our 5pp action floor. Buy CAR YES at 44¢.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans — Week 1 Prediction
The Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has HOU at +1.54 and BUF at +2.99 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 1.0-point projected margin in favor of Houston Texans. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 53.1% on HOU and 46.9% on BUF. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing HOU YES around 50¢ and BUF YES around 50¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars — Week 1 Prediction
The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Cleveland Browns at EverBank Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has JAX at +2.33 and CLE at -3.22 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 8.1-point projected margin in favor of Jacksonville Jaguars. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 72.5% on JAX and 27.5% on CLE. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing JAX YES around 78¢ and CLE YES around 25¢. That's a -5.0pp gap pricing JAX too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy CLE YES at 27¢.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers — Week 1 Prediction
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Atlanta Falcons at Acrisure Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has PIT at -1.93 and ATL at -1.74 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.3-point projected margin in favor of Pittsburgh Steelers. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 56.8% on PIT and 43.2% on ATL. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing PIT YES around 59¢ and ATL YES around 41¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans — Week 1 Prediction
The Tennessee Titans host the New York Jets at Nissan Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has TEN at -4.46 and NYJ at -3.46 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 1.5-point projected margin in favor of Tennessee Titans. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 54.4% on TEN and 45.6% on NYJ. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing TEN YES around 57¢ and NYJ YES around 42¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals — Week 1 Prediction
The Cincinnati Bengals host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Paycor Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has CIN at -0.48 and TB at -0.40 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.4-point projected margin in favor of Cincinnati Bengals. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 57.1% on CIN and 42.9% on TB. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing CIN YES around 65¢ and TB YES around 36¢. That's a -7.4pp gap pricing CIN too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy TB YES at 37¢.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles — Week 1 Prediction
The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field. Our 2026 power rating has PHI at +2.14 and WAS at -1.33 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 6.0-point projected margin in favor of Philadelphia Eagles. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 67.1% on PHI and 32.9% on WAS. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing PHI YES around 67¢ and WAS YES around 34¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings — Week 1 Prediction
The Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has MIN at -2.27 and GB at +2.54 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.3-point projected margin in favor of Green Bay Packers. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 43.2% on MIN and 56.8% on GB. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing MIN YES around 53¢ and GB YES around 50¢. That's a -9.3pp gap pricing MIN too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy GB YES at 52¢.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers — Week 1 Prediction
The Los Angeles Chargers host the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has LAC at -0.31 and ARI at -4.61 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 6.8-point projected margin in favor of Los Angeles Chargers. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 69.3% on LAC and 30.7% on ARI. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing LAC YES around 83¢ and ARI YES around 20¢. That's a -13.2pp gap pricing LAC too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy ARI YES at 22¢.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders — Week 1 Prediction
The Las Vegas Raiders host the Miami Dolphins at Allegiant Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has LV at -6.51 and MIA at -4.07 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.1-point projected margin in favor of Las Vegas Raiders. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 50.2% on LV and 49.8% on MIA. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing LV YES around 64¢ and MIA YES around 36¢. That's a -13.3pp gap pricing LV too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy MIA YES at 36¢.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants — Week 1 Prediction
The New York Giants host the Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has NYG at -2.39 and DAL at +1.30 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 1.2-point projected margin in favor of Dallas Cowboys. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 46.5% on NYG and 53.5% on DAL. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing NYG YES around 43¢ and DAL YES around 58¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs — Week 1 Prediction
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead. Our 2026 power rating has KC at -0.45 and DEN at +1.02 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 1.0-point projected margin in favor of Kansas City Chiefs. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 53.0% on KC and 47.0% on DEN. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing KC YES around 58¢ and DEN YES around 44¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
Methodology Notes & Outliers
Injuries read live, not baked into the prior. We retired the manual preseason injury override — a team's availability is pulled from the live injury feed at edge-compute time rather than frozen into its preseason rating. So a KC-game verdict moves with real news the day of the slate, not a static flag set in the summer.
σ=13.5 is locked. That's the consensus standard deviation of single-game NFL margins fit against no-vig closing moneylines across 2017–2025. Same value 538, FPI, and Massey converge on. Playoff games use σ=14.0 to match historical playoff variance.
Want the full methodology? See our Gridiron Edge model documentation — 66.2% backtested accuracy across 2003–2025 walk-forward.
NFL game edges vs Kalshi — FAQ
What is a Gridiron Edge, and how is it different from a Kalshi price?
A Kalshi price is the market-implied probability of an outcome — a 58¢ moneyline contract means the market thinks that team wins 58% of the time. Our Gridiron Edge is our own DAEPA power-rating model’s win probability for the same game. The "edge" is the gap between the two, in percentage points: when our model says 66% and Kalshi is pricing 58%, that’s an 8-point edge on the YES side.
How big does an edge have to be before you flag it?
Our floor for action is 5 percentage points — wide enough to clear the typical 2–4¢ Kalshi bid/ask spread so a real model edge isn’t eaten by friction. Anything tighter is a pass. In-season we tier the flagged edges: STRONG ≥12pp, HIGH ≥8pp, MODERATE ≥5pp. Treat the tier as the conviction signal, not the raw percentage.
How accurate is the model behind these edges?
The Gridiron Edge model backtests to 66.2% straight-up accuracy across 6,218 NFL games from 2003–2025, walk-forward — the model never sees future results when pricing a game. That’s in line with the leading public opponent-adjusted efficiency benchmarks (~66%). An edge is a probabilistic lean, not a lock.
Can you trade these NFL game markets on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states. Each game market is a yes/no contract that settles at $1 or $0 — a position on an outcome, not a wager against a sportsbook line. Contracts trade 1¢–99¢ as implied probabilities with no vig.