Wed, Sep 9, 11:15 PM EDT
NEatSEA
Seattle, WA
Our Model
57.8%
SEA win
Kalshi
66¢
SEA YES
Edge
-7.7pp
model − mkt
BUY YES NE
Power ratings: NE 3.34 · SEA 3.49. Projected margin +2.7 for SEA (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: NE 35¢ · SEA 66¢.
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Gridiron EdgeGame Edges
2026 NFL Week 1 Predictions: All 16 Games vs. Kalshi Markets
Power-rating + home-field win probabilities vs. live Kalshi prices · 5pp actionable threshold
Last updated: Jun 4, 4:28 PM UTC2 edges0 no-bet14 quiet markets
2026 NFL · Week 1 · Featured EdgeSun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
CHIatCAR
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Our Model
51.4%
CAR win
Kalshi
43¢
CAR YES
Edge
+8.9pp
model − mkt
Verdict: BUY YES CAR
Trade on KalshiPower Ratings
CHI+0.95
CAR-1.08
Home-field+2.50
Projected margin+0.5
CAR favored (0.5 pts)
How We Predict NFL Games
Every 2026 team gets a single number on the points-per-game scale — our 2026 power rating — built from 27 seasons of opponent-adjusted EPA, a Bayesian preseason prior that shrinks last season's results toward the mean, and per-component offense / defense / special-teams shrinkage. To predict a Week 1 game, we take the home team's rating, subtract the away team's rating, add a standard +2.5 home-field bump, and convert that point spread to a win probability through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5 — the standard deviation of single-game margins across modern NFL history.
Then we pull the live Kalshi orderbook for both sides of the matchup, take the mid of the best YES bid and the implied YES ask (100 minus the best NO bid), and compare. If our model probability beats the market by at least 5 percentage points, we recommend buying YES at the actionable side — that's our floor for action, set wide enough to clear typical Kalshi 2–4¢ bid/ask spreads. Anything tighter than 5pp is a pass: real edge, but not enough to overcome friction.
The result for Week 1: 2 games with actionable edges, 0games where the market and our model agree closely enough to skip, and any “quiet markets” listed but not yet trading actively on Kalshi.
All 16 Week 1 Games
NEatSEAThu, Sep 10, 11:35 PM EDT
SFatLA
Inglewood, CA
Our Model
63.0%
LA win
Kalshi
—
LA YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: SF 1.01 · LA 2.99. Projected margin +4.5 for LA (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
NOatDET
Detroit, MI
Our Model
63.6%
DET win
Kalshi
—
DET YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: NO -1.01 · DET 1.17. Projected margin +4.7 for DET (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
BALatIND
Indianapolis, IN
Our Model
60.8%
IND win
Kalshi
—
IND YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: BAL -0.46 · IND 0.74. Projected margin +3.7 for IND (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
CHIatCARCharlotte, NC
Our Model
51.4%
CAR win
Kalshi
43¢
CAR YES
Edge
+8.9pp
model − mkt
BUY YES CAR
Power ratings: CHI 0.95 · CAR -1.08. Projected margin +0.5 for CAR (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: CHI 58¢ · CAR 43¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
BUFatHOU
Houston, TX
Our Model
54.5%
HOU win
Kalshi
—
HOU YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: BUF 2.24 · HOU 1.28. Projected margin +1.5 for HOU (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
CLEatJAX
Jacksonville, FL
Our Model
72.2%
JAX win
Kalshi
—
JAX YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: CLE -2.75 · JAX 2.71. Projected margin +8.0 for JAX (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
ATLatPIT
Pittsburgh, PA
Our Model
56.6%
PIT win
Kalshi
—
PIT YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: ATL -0.63 · PIT -0.90. Projected margin +2.2 for PIT (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
NYJatTEN
Nashville, TN
Our Model
54.1%
TEN win
Kalshi
—
TEN YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: NYJ -3.01 · TEN -4.11. Projected margin +1.4 for TEN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
TBatCIN
Cincinnati, OH
Our Model
56.7%
CIN win
Kalshi
—
CIN YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: TB -0.25 · CIN -0.48. Projected margin +2.3 for CIN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
WASatPHI
Philadelphia, PA
Our Model
62.6%
PHI win
Kalshi
—
PHI YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: WAS -1.08 · PHI 0.74. Projected margin +4.3 for PHI (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
GBatMIN
Minneapolis, MN
Our Model
52.7%
MIN win
Kalshi
—
MIN YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: GB 1.41 · MIN -0.18. Projected margin +0.9 for MIN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
ARIatLAC
Inglewood, CA
Our Model
66.2%
LAC win
Kalshi
—
LAC YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: ARI -2.73 · LAC 0.42. Projected margin +5.7 for LAC (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
MIAatLV
Las Vegas, NV
Our Model
51.4%
LV win
Kalshi
—
LV YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: MIA -1.97 · LV -3.99. Projected margin +0.5 for LV (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM EDT
DALatNYG
East Rutherford, NJ
Our Model
51.4%
NYG win
Kalshi
—
NYG YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: DAL 0.92 · NYG -1.12. Projected margin +0.5 for NYG (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Mon, Sep 14, 9:15 PM EDT
DENatKC
Kansas City, MO
Our Model
43.0%
KC win
Kalshi
—
KC YES
Edge
—
model − mkt
Market quiet — no live price
Power ratings: DEN 0.87 · KC -4.02. Projected margin -2.4 for KC (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.
Every 2026 NFL Week 1 Matchup: Our Model vs. the Kalshi Market
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks — Week 1 Prediction
The Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots at Lumen Field. Our 2026 power rating has SEA at +3.49 and NE at +3.34 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.7-point projected margin in favor of Seattle Seahawks. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 57.8% on SEA and 42.2% on NE. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing SEA YES around 66¢ and NE YES around 35¢. That's a -7.7pp gap pricing SEA too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy NE YES.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams — Week 1 Prediction
The Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers at SoFi Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has LA at +2.99 and SF at +1.01 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 4.5-point projected margin in favor of Los Angeles Rams. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 63.0% on LA and 37.0% on SF. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions — Week 1 Prediction
The Detroit Lions host the New Orleans Saints at Ford Field. Our 2026 power rating has DET at +1.17 and NO at -1.01 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 4.7-point projected margin in favor of Detroit Lions. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 63.6% on DET and 36.4% on NO. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts — Week 1 Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts host the Baltimore Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has IND at +0.74 and BAL at -0.46 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 3.7-point projected margin in favor of Indianapolis Colts. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 60.8% on IND and 39.2% on BAL. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers — Week 1 Prediction
The Carolina Panthers host the Chicago Bears at Bank of America Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has CAR at -1.08 and CHI at +0.95 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.5-point projected margin in favor of Carolina Panthers. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 51.4% on CAR and 48.6% on CHI. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. That's a +8.9pp gap in favor of CAR — above our 5pp action floor. Buy CAR YES.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans — Week 1 Prediction
The Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has HOU at +1.28 and BUF at +2.24 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 1.5-point projected margin in favor of Houston Texans. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 54.5% on HOU and 45.5% on BUF. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars — Week 1 Prediction
The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Cleveland Browns at EverBank Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has JAX at +2.71 and CLE at -2.75 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 8.0-point projected margin in favor of Jacksonville Jaguars. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 72.2% on JAX and 27.8% on CLE. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers — Week 1 Prediction
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Atlanta Falcons at Acrisure Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has PIT at -0.90 and ATL at -0.63 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.2-point projected margin in favor of Pittsburgh Steelers. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 56.6% on PIT and 43.4% on ATL. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans — Week 1 Prediction
The Tennessee Titans host the New York Jets at Nissan Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has TEN at -4.11 and NYJ at -3.01 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 1.4-point projected margin in favor of Tennessee Titans. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 54.1% on TEN and 45.9% on NYJ. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals — Week 1 Prediction
The Cincinnati Bengals host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Paycor Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has CIN at -0.48 and TB at -0.25 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.3-point projected margin in favor of Cincinnati Bengals. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 56.7% on CIN and 43.3% on TB. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles — Week 1 Prediction
The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field. Our 2026 power rating has PHI at +0.74 and WAS at -1.08 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 4.3-point projected margin in favor of Philadelphia Eagles. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 62.6% on PHI and 37.4% on WAS. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings — Week 1 Prediction
The Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has MIN at -0.18 and GB at +1.41 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.9-point projected margin in favor of Minnesota Vikings. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 52.7% on MIN and 47.3% on GB. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers — Week 1 Prediction
The Los Angeles Chargers host the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has LAC at +0.42 and ARI at -2.73 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 5.7-point projected margin in favor of Los Angeles Chargers. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 66.2% on LAC and 33.8% on ARI. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders — Week 1 Prediction
The Las Vegas Raiders host the Miami Dolphins at Allegiant Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has LV at -3.99 and MIA at -1.97 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.5-point projected margin in favor of Las Vegas Raiders. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 51.4% on LV and 48.6% on MIA. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants — Week 1 Prediction
The New York Giants host the Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has NYG at -1.12 and DAL at +0.92 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.5-point projected margin in favor of New York Giants. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 51.4% on NYG and 48.6% on DAL. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs — Week 1 Prediction
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead. Our 2026 power rating has KC at -4.02 and DEN at +0.87 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.4-point projected margin in favor of Denver Broncos. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 43.0% on KC and 57.0% on DEN. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.
Methodology Notes & Outliers
Kansas City's prior reflects Mahomes' status. The 2026 KC prior carries an offensive override accounting for Patrick Mahomes' expected weeks-1–8 absence net of his return-to-form bounce. If that picture changes before Week 1, the rating moves substantially and so do the KC-game verdicts.
σ=13.5 is locked. That's the consensus standard deviation of single-game NFL margins fit against no-vig closing moneylines across 2017–2025. Same value 538, FPI, and Massey converge on. Playoff games use σ=14.0 to match historical playoff variance.
Want the full methodology? See our Gridiron Edge model documentation — 66.5% backtested accuracy across 2003–2024 walk-forward.