Upcoming
BALatIND
MODERATEMoneyline
Our Prob
58.1%
Market
38¢
Edge
+20.6pp
2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
Gridiron EdgeGame Edges
2026 NFL Week 1 Predictions: All 16 Games vs. Kalshi Markets
Model as of · prices live
Free, always · 2026 season · DAEPA model vs. Kalshi market price · Updated Wednesdays
Where the Model Disagrees
Week 1 · 2026 · the biggest gaps between our model and the market, ranked · free
GameModel backsMarketEdge
Edge = our model's win probability for the backed side minus the Kalshi-implied price, in percentage points. Biggest gaps first; only disagreements past our 5pp threshold are shown. When the model and the market converge, that game simply isn't listed here.
† Unanchored — the gap exceeds 15 points with no consensus line behind it. Graded in public either way, but on the moneyline our model has been the less accurate of the two, so a gap that large is more often ours than the market's.
How We Predict NFL Games
Every 2026 team gets a single number on the points-per-game scale — our 2026 power rating — built from 27 seasons of opponent-adjusted EPA, a Bayesian preseason prior that shrinks last season's results toward the mean, and per-component offense / defense / special-teams shrinkage. To predict a Week 1 game we take the home team's rating, subtract the away team's, add a standard +2.5 home-field bump, and convert that spread to a win probability through the margin distribution the model fits to actual game results, rather than assuming a bell curve. A Normal fitted to the same data has σ=14.4 — the spread of results around our projected margin, wider than the ≈13.3 you get around a closing line, because a closing line is a better centre than our rating difference is. The empirical version differs most in the middle, where NFL margins pile up on 3 and 7 and a bell curve does not.
The edge is that number minus the market's. A prediction-market contract settles at $1 or $0, so its price in cents is an implied probability, which makes the comparison direct. We publish the disagreement, not a recommendation.
MODERATE (6)
BALatINDUpcoming
CHIatCAR
MODERATEMoneyline
Our Prob
45.9%
Market
41¢
Edge
+5.3pp
Upcoming
BUFatHOU
MODERATEMoneyline
Our Prob
43.4%
Market
49¢
Edge
-5.1pp
Upcoming
NOatDET
MODERATEMoneyline
Our Prob
67.2%
Market
74¢
Edge
-6.3pp
Upcoming
WASatPHI
MODERATEMoneyline
Our Prob
62.0%
Market
70¢
Edge
-7.5pp
Upcoming
MIAatLV
MODERATEMoneyline
Our Prob
37.7%
Market
64¢
Edge
-25.8pp
LOW (4)
Upcoming
NEatSEA
LOWMoneyline
Our Prob
65.7%
Market
62¢
Edge
+4.2pp
Upcoming
TBatCIN
LOWMoneyline
Our Prob
61.9%
Market
65¢
Edge
-3.1pp
Upcoming
DENatKC
LOWMoneyline
Our Prob
52.4%
Market
56¢
Edge
-3.1pp
Upcoming
GBatMIN
LOWMoneyline
Our Prob
49.0%
Market
53¢
Edge
-3.5pp
All 16 Week 1 Games
Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM EDT
NEatSEASeattle, WA
Our Model
57.5%
SEA win
Kalshi
63¢
SEA YES
Edge
-5.0pp
model − mkt
BUY YES NE @ 39¢
Power ratings: NE 5.50 · SEA 5.48. Projected margin +2.5 for SEA (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: NE 39¢ · SEA 63¢.
Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM EDT
SFatLAR
Melbourne, Australia
Our Model
63.2%
LAR win
Kalshi
65¢
LAR YES
Edge
-1.3pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: SF 1.00 · LAR 5.13. Projected margin +4.1 for LAR (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: SF 35¢ · LAR 65¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
NOatDETDetroit, MI
Our Model
64.9%
DET win
Kalshi
74¢
DET YES
Edge
-8.6pp
model − mkt
BUY YES NO @ 27¢
Power ratings: NO -2.27 · DET 2.50. Projected margin +7.3 for DET (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: NO 27¢ · DET 74¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
BALatINDIndianapolis, IN
Our Model
54.4%
IND win
Kalshi
38¢
IND YES
Edge
+16.9pp
model − mkt
BUY YES IND @ 38¢
Power ratings: BAL 1.20 · IND 0.02. Projected margin +1.3 for IND (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: BAL 63¢ · IND 38¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
CHIatCARCharlotte, NC
Our Model
49.2%
CAR win
Kalshi
41¢
CAR YES
Edge
+8.7pp
model − mkt
BUY YES CAR @ 41¢
Power ratings: CHI 1.37 · CAR -1.81. Projected margin -0.7 for CAR (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: CHI 60¢ · CAR 41¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
BUFatHOUHouston, TX
Our Model
52.6%
HOU win
Kalshi
50¢
HOU YES
Edge
+3.1pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: BUF 3.79 · HOU 1.97. Projected margin +0.7 for HOU (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: BUF 50¢ · HOU 50¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
CLEatJAX
Jacksonville, FL
Our Model
65.4%
JAX win
Kalshi
79¢
JAX YES
Edge
-13.1pp
model − mkt
BUY YES CLE @ 22¢
Power ratings: CLE -2.31 · JAX 2.63. Projected margin +7.4 for JAX (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: CLE 22¢ · JAX 79¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
ATLatPIT
Pittsburgh, PA
Our Model
57.0%
PIT win
Kalshi
62¢
PIT YES
Edge
-4.4pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: ATL -0.37 · PIT -0.48. Projected margin +2.4 for PIT (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: ATL 39¢ · PIT 62¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
NYJatTEN
Nashville, TN
Our Model
58.0%
TEN win
Kalshi
54¢
TEN YES
Edge
+4.5pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: NYJ -3.95 · TEN -3.70. Projected margin +2.8 for TEN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: NYJ 47¢ · TEN 54¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
TBatCINCincinnati, OH
Our Model
57.5%
CIN win
Kalshi
65¢
CIN YES
Edge
-7.0pp
model − mkt
BUY YES TB @ 35¢
Power ratings: TB -0.55 · CIN -0.63. Projected margin +2.4 for CIN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: TB 35¢ · CIN 65¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
WASatPHIPhiladelphia, PA
Our Model
67.2%
PHI win
Kalshi
70¢
PHI YES
Edge
-2.3pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: WAS -1.46 · PHI 2.36. Projected margin +6.3 for PHI (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: WAS 32¢ · PHI 70¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
GBatMINMinneapolis, MN
Our Model
39.9%
MIN win
Kalshi
53¢
MIN YES
Edge
-12.6pp
model − mkt
BUY YES GB @ 48¢
Power ratings: GB 3.01 · MIN -2.64. Projected margin -3.1 for MIN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: GB 47¢ · MIN 53¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
ARIatLAC
Inglewood, CA
Our Model
65.5%
LAC win
Kalshi
82¢
LAC YES
Edge
-16.5pp
model − mkt
BUY YES ARI @ 19¢
Power ratings: ARI -3.70 · LAC -0.58. Projected margin +5.6 for LAC (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: ARI 18¢ · LAC 82¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
MIAatLVLas Vegas, NV
Our Model
50.4%
LV win
Kalshi
63¢
LV YES
Edge
-12.1pp
model − mkt
BUY YES MIA @ 38¢
Power ratings: MIA -3.33 · LV -5.99. Projected margin -0.2 for LV (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: MIA 37¢ · LV 63¢.
Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM EDT
DALatNYG
East Rutherford, NJ
Our Model
50.4%
NYG win
Kalshi
41¢
NYG YES
Edge
+9.9pp
model − mkt
BUY YES NYG @ 41¢
Power ratings: DAL 1.37 · NYG -1.30. Projected margin -0.2 for NYG (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: DAL 60¢ · NYG 41¢.
Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM EDT
DENatKCKansas City, MO
Our Model
53.0%
KC win
Kalshi
56¢
KC YES
Edge
-2.5pp
model − mkt
No edge — pass
Power ratings: DEN 1.20 · KC -0.60. Projected margin +0.7 for KC (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: DEN 45¢ · KC 56¢.
Every 2026 NFL Week 1 Matchup: Our Model vs. the Kalshi Market
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks — Week 1 Prediction
The Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots at Lumen Field. Our 2026 power rating has SEA at +5.48 and NE at +5.50 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.5-point projected margin in favor of Seattle Seahawks. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 57.5% on SEA and 42.5% on NE. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing SEA YES around 63¢ and NE YES around 39¢. That's a -5.0pp gap pricing SEA too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy NE YES at 39¢.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams — Week 1 Prediction
The Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers at Melbourne Cricket Ground. Our 2026 power rating has LAR at +5.13 and SF at +1.00 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 4.1-point projected margin in favor of Los Angeles Rams. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 63.2% on LAR and 36.8% on SF. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing LAR YES around 65¢ and SF YES around 35¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions — Week 1 Prediction
The Detroit Lions host the New Orleans Saints at Ford Field. Our 2026 power rating has DET at +2.50 and NO at -2.27 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 7.3-point projected margin in favor of Detroit Lions. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 64.9% on DET and 35.1% on NO. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing DET YES around 74¢ and NO YES around 27¢. That's a -8.6pp gap pricing DET too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy NO YES at 27¢.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts — Week 1 Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts host the Baltimore Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has IND at +0.02 and BAL at +1.20 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 1.3-point projected margin in favor of Indianapolis Colts. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 54.4% on IND and 45.6% on BAL. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing IND YES around 38¢ and BAL YES around 63¢. That's a +16.9pp gap in favor of IND — above our 5pp action floor. Buy IND YES at 38¢.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers — Week 1 Prediction
The Carolina Panthers host the Chicago Bears at Bank of America Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has CAR at -1.81 and CHI at +1.37 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.7-point projected margin in favor of Chicago Bears. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 49.2% on CAR and 50.8% on CHI. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing CAR YES around 41¢ and CHI YES around 60¢. That's a +8.7pp gap in favor of CAR — above our 5pp action floor. Buy CAR YES at 41¢.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans — Week 1 Prediction
The Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has HOU at +1.97 and BUF at +3.79 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.7-point projected margin in favor of Houston Texans. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 52.6% on HOU and 47.4% on BUF. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing HOU YES around 50¢ and BUF YES around 50¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars — Week 1 Prediction
The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Cleveland Browns at EverBank Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has JAX at +2.63 and CLE at -2.31 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 7.4-point projected margin in favor of Jacksonville Jaguars. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 65.4% on JAX and 34.6% on CLE. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing JAX YES around 79¢ and CLE YES around 22¢. That's a -13.1pp gap pricing JAX too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy CLE YES at 22¢.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers — Week 1 Prediction
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Atlanta Falcons at Acrisure Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has PIT at -0.48 and ATL at -0.37 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.4-point projected margin in favor of Pittsburgh Steelers. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 57.0% on PIT and 43.0% on ATL. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing PIT YES around 62¢ and ATL YES around 39¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans — Week 1 Prediction
The Tennessee Titans host the New York Jets at Nissan Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has TEN at -3.70 and NYJ at -3.95 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.8-point projected margin in favor of Tennessee Titans. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 58.0% on TEN and 42.0% on NYJ. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing TEN YES around 54¢ and NYJ YES around 47¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals — Week 1 Prediction
The Cincinnati Bengals host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Paycor Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has CIN at -0.63 and TB at -0.55 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.4-point projected margin in favor of Cincinnati Bengals. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 57.5% on CIN and 42.5% on TB. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing CIN YES around 65¢ and TB YES around 35¢. That's a -7.0pp gap pricing CIN too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy TB YES at 35¢.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles — Week 1 Prediction
The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field. Our 2026 power rating has PHI at +2.36 and WAS at -1.46 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 6.3-point projected margin in favor of Philadelphia Eagles. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 67.2% on PHI and 32.8% on WAS. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing PHI YES around 70¢ and WAS YES around 32¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings — Week 1 Prediction
The Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has MIN at -2.64 and GB at +3.01 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 3.1-point projected margin in favor of Green Bay Packers. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 39.9% on MIN and 60.1% on GB. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing MIN YES around 53¢ and GB YES around 47¢. That's a -12.6pp gap pricing MIN too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy GB YES at 48¢.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers — Week 1 Prediction
The Los Angeles Chargers host the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has LAC at -0.58 and ARI at -3.70 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 5.6-point projected margin in favor of Los Angeles Chargers. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 65.5% on LAC and 34.5% on ARI. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing LAC YES around 82¢ and ARI YES around 18¢. That's a -16.5pp gap pricing LAC too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy ARI YES at 19¢.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders — Week 1 Prediction
The Las Vegas Raiders host the Miami Dolphins at Allegiant Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has LV at -5.99 and MIA at -3.33 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.2-point projected margin in favor of Miami Dolphins. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 50.4% on LV and 49.6% on MIA. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing LV YES around 63¢ and MIA YES around 37¢. That's a -12.1pp gap pricing LV too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy MIA YES at 38¢.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants — Week 1 Prediction
The New York Giants host the Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has NYG at -1.30 and DAL at +1.37 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.2-point projected margin in favor of Dallas Cowboys. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 50.4% on NYG and 49.6% on DAL. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing NYG YES around 41¢ and DAL YES around 60¢. That's a +9.9pp gap in favor of NYG — above our 5pp action floor. Buy NYG YES at 41¢.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs — Week 1 Prediction
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead. Our 2026 power rating has KC at -0.60 and DEN at +1.20 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.7-point projected margin in favor of Kansas City Chiefs. Converted through the model's fitted margin distribution, the model lands at 53.0% on KC and 47.0% on DEN. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing KC YES around 56¢ and DEN YES around 45¢. Gap is inside our 5pp action floor — pass on a position.
Three market types per game — moneyline, spread, total. Edge = our implied probability minus Kalshi price, in percentage points. STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH ≥8pp · MODERATE ≥5pp · LOW <5pp. Spread/total β and σ are heuristic pending backtest calibration — use the tier as the confidence signal, not the raw number. Full methodology →
Preseason offer
Gridiron Edge Pro — 50% off your first payment
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
Claim 50% off →
$75 for the first year, or $7.50 for the first month. Code applies automatically. Ends Sep 10.
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Drafting this month? Same model, fantasy side.
The 2026 projection engine behind these numbers also runs a free fantasy draft desk inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor — the ranked board, the best available at your pick, sleepers and busts vs consensus ADP, and a who-do-I-draft call mid-draft. 8 tools, no account.
Open the fantasy draft assistant →NFL game edges vs Kalshi — FAQ
What is a Gridiron Edge, and how is it different from a Kalshi price?
A Kalshi price is the market-implied probability of an outcome — a 58¢ moneyline contract means the market thinks that team wins 58% of the time. Our Gridiron Edge is our own DAEPA power-rating model’s win probability for the same game. The "edge" is the gap between the two, in percentage points: when our model says 66% and Kalshi is pricing 58%, that’s an 8-point edge on the YES side.
How big does an edge have to be before you flag it?
Our floor for action is 5 percentage points — wide enough to clear the typical 2–4¢ Kalshi bid/ask spread so a real model edge isn’t eaten by friction. Anything tighter is a pass. In-season we tier the flagged edges: STRONG ≥12pp, HIGH ≥8pp, MODERATE ≥5pp. Treat the tier as the conviction signal, not the raw percentage.
How accurate is the model behind these edges?
The Gridiron Edge model backtests to 59.6% straight-up accuracy across 3,266 NFL games from 2013–2024, walk-forward, with no market line among the inputs — the model never sees future results when pricing a game. Accuracy climbs with the model’s own confidence, to 71.5% on the games where it flags an edge above 20%. The market’s closing line is still the stronger raw predictor; the model earns its keep by disagreeing with it in a measurable way. An edge is a probabilistic lean, not a lock.
Can you trade these NFL game markets on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states. Each game market is a yes/no contract that settles at $1 or $0 — a position on an outcome, not a wager against a sportsbook line. Contracts trade 1¢–99¢ as implied probabilities with no vig.