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NFL 2026

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NFL Player Prop Prices — Kalshi vs Sportsbook Consensus vs Novig

Every NFL player prop Kalshi lists this week, priced against what the big books agree on at the same line and what the other exchanges are asking. A Kalshi contract pays $1 if the player clears the line, so its price in cents is a probability — which makes the comparison direct. Where Kalshi is cheaper than everyone else for a side, the gap says so in cents.

New to the maker seat? Markets 101: market maker vs market taker — why resting a bid beats paying the ask.

2026 · Week 5 · Kalshi as of Oct 10, 10:10 PM ET · books as of Oct 10, 10:15 PM ET · 4209 Kalshi prop strikes listed · 2744 with a real two-sided book · 207 priced against 3+ books · widest gap: Kaelon Black 15+ rush yds, Kalshi 5¢ below consensus · top Oracle call: Parker Washington

This week on the boardNFL Week 5 predictions →NFL Week 6 predictions — early lines →Week 4 results →

Week 5 gamesBuccaneers at CowboysEagles at JaguarsBengals at DolphinsRaiders at PatriotsVikings at SaintsBrowns at JetsColts at SteelersTexans at TitansGiants at CommandersBroncos at ChargersLions at CardinalsBears at Packers49ers at SeahawksRavens at FalconsBills at Rams

This week at a glance

Strikes listed
4,209
Two-sided books
2,744
Priced vs 3+ books
207
Gaps ≥ 5¢
1

Oracle calls

Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough, on a prop type our backtest validates, we publish a call — YES or NO on the contract as Kalshi lists it (“3+ receptions”, not “over 2.5”), with the market price of that side beside it. This is the only thing on the page that says play. Priced Oct 11. Projections refresh Wednesday 10 AM ET and again Friday 4 PM ET after the final game-status report; Kalshi prices every 10 minutes.

NFL player prop edges — our projection against each Kalshi contract (X or more), on the strike closest to our projection. The call is YES or NO on that contract, the market price is the price of the called side, and the edge is stated on the called side. Rows badged WATCH are not plays; rows badged SKEW are calls where the average projection sits on the other side of the threshold.
PlayerContractMatchupCallOur projOur oddsMktEdgeTierTrade
Parker WashingtonWR5+ receptionsover 4.5JAX vs PHINO4.459%49¢+9.8 ppHIGHBuy NO →
Trevor LawrenceQB2+ pass TDsover 1.5JAX vs PHINO1.459%50¢+8.3 ppHIGHBuy NO →
Geno SmithQB10+ rush ydsover 9.5NYJ vs CLENO9.456%47¢+8.3 ppHIGHBuy NO →
Trevor LawrenceQBWatch10+ rush ydsover 9.5JAX vs PHINO9.456%35¢+20.3 ppMODERATEBuy NO →
Sam LaPortaTEWatch5+ receptionsover 4.5DET vs ARINO4.360%45¢+14.7 ppMODERATEBuy NO →
Josh AllenQBWatch2+ pass TDsover 1.5BUF vs LARNO1.556%49¢+6.6 ppMODERATEBuy NO →
Jonathan TaylorRBWatch3+ receptionsover 2.5IND vs PITNOSkew2.658%51¢+6.3 ppMODERATEBuy NO →
Skyy MooreWRWatch2+ receptionsover 1.5GB vs CHIYES1.551%46¢+5.2 ppMODERATEBuy YES →
Bo NixQB2+ pass TDsover 1.5DEN vs LACNO🔒HIGHBuy NO →
Bhayshul TutenRB2+ receptionsover 1.5JAX vs PHIYES🔒HIGHBuy YES →
Jalen HurtsQB25+ rush ydsover 24.5PHI vs JAXNO🔒HIGHBuy NO →
Daniel JonesQB2+ pass TDsover 1.5IND vs PITNO🔒HIGHBuy NO →
Kendrick BourneWR4+ receptionsover 3.5ARI vs DETYES🔒HIGHBuy YES →
Braelon AllenRB3+ receptionsover 2.5NYJ vs CLENO🔒HIGHBuy NO →
Jalen HurtsQB1+ pass TDsover 0.5PHI vs JAXYES🔒HIGHBuy YES →
Braelon AllenRB90+ rush ydsover 89.5NYJ vs CLENO🔒HIGHBuy NO →
Drake MayeQB3+ pass TDsover 2.5NE vs LVNO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Kirk CousinsQBWatch2+ pass TDsover 1.5LV vs NEYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Darnell WashingtonTEWatch25+ rec ydsover 24.5PIT vs INDNO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Drake MayeQBWatch30+ rush ydsover 29.5NE vs LVNO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Tyler ShoughQBWatch2+ pass TDsover 1.5NO vs MINYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Jacoby BrissettQBWatch2+ pass TDsover 1.5ARI vs DETNO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Brock PurdyQBWatch2+ pass TDsover 1.5SF vs SEAYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Darnell MooneyWRWatch2+ receptionsover 1.5NYG vs WASYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Kenyon SadiqTEWatch4+ receptionsover 3.5NYJ vs CLENO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Jaylen WarrenRBWatch3+ receptionsover 2.5PIT vs INDNO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Elic AyomanorWRWatch2+ receptionsover 1.5TEN vs HOUYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Dalton KincaidTEWatch5+ receptionsover 4.5BUF vs LARNO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Darius CooperWRWatch4+ receptionsover 3.5PHI vs JAXYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Carnell TateWRWatch5+ receptionsover 4.5TEN vs HOUNO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Cam SkatteboRBWatch40+ rush ydsover 39.5NYG vs WASNO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Kyler MurrayQBWatch2+ pass TDsover 1.5MIN vs NONO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Derrick HenryRBWatch2+ receptionsover 1.5BAL vs ATLYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Tony PollardRBWatch2+ receptionsover 1.5TEN vs HOUYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Sam LaPortaTEWatch50+ rec ydsover 49.5DET vs ARINO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Keon ColemanWRWatch4+ receptionsover 3.5BUF vs LARYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Laquon TreadwellWRWatch2+ receptionsover 1.5IND vs PITYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRWatch5+ receptionsover 4.5TEN vs HOUYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →
Braelon AllenRBWatch15+ rec ydsover 14.5NYJ vs CLENO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →
Quinshon JudkinsRBWatch3+ receptionsover 2.5CLE vs NYJYES🔒MODERATEBuy YES →

40 of 89 props · 32 locked (Pro) ·

Skew — our projection is an average, and on a right-skewed stat a few big games can pull it past a threshold most games never reach. The call comes from the full distribution, not the average; the badge says the two disagree. Never the top call.

Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.

Showing 8 of 89 — free, always.

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Prop market board

Every Kalshi strike this week. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents — positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books. Exchange quotes are shown raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call — and it is read across two clocks: Kalshi prices refresh every 10 minutes, the sportsbook consensus hourly, so late in an hour a gap can be a fresh Kalshi mid against a book median up to an hour old. Both times are stated on the board.

14 games · 2,744 two-sided strikes · + 1,465 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced · book consensus as of Oct 10, 10:15 PM ET · open a game to load its strikes.

BAL @ ATL178 two-sided strikes · 21 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →BAL @ ATL full ladder →

BUF @ LAR170 two-sided strikes · 24 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →BUF @ LAR full ladder →

CHI @ GB216 two-sided strikes · 25 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →CHI @ GB full ladder →

CIN @ MIA154 two-sided strikes · 21 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →CIN @ MIA full ladder →

CLE @ NYJ196 two-sided strikes · 20 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →CLE @ NYJ full ladder →

DEN @ LAC160 two-sided strikes · 23 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →DEN @ LAC full ladder →

DET @ ARI251 two-sided strikes · 20 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →DET @ ARI full ladder →

HOU @ TEN208 two-sided strikes · 22 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →HOU @ TEN full ladder →

IND @ PIT187 two-sided strikes · 18 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →IND @ PIT full ladder →

LV @ NE211 two-sided strikes · 26 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →LV @ NE full ladder →

MIN @ NO175 two-sided strikes · 23 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →MIN @ NO full ladder →

NYG @ WAS160 two-sided strikes · 22 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →NYG @ WAS full ladder →

PHI @ JAX263 two-sided strikes · 24 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →PHI @ JAX full ladder →

SF @ SEA215 two-sided strikes · 23 players · show strikes ▾

Build a combo →SF @ SEA full ladder →

Teams on the board:ARIATLBALBUFCHICINCLEDENDETGBHOUINDJAXLACLARLVMIAMINNENONYGNYJPHIPITSEASFTENWAS

Players with Oracle calls this week (2)

ATL Kyle Pitts

BUF James Cook

The Ladder: the shape of the distribution vs every strike

The prop board shows strikes; the Ladder shows the whole margin distribution beside the Kalshi price at each rung, with the verdict — SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. This week's widest gap, auto-advancing.

MCP · nfl_prop_board

One prompt, every venue: the agent calls nfl_prop_board and returns the best over and under on a prop, venue by venue. See it in your agent →

Season leaders: Kalshi vs Polymarket, widest gaps

Updated Oct 10, 10:20 PM ET

The same player, the same season-long question, two prediction-market prices. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the Polymarket mid in cents — where the two venues disagree most on who leads the league or wins the award.

Season leaders: Kalshi vs Polymarket, widest gaps — Kalshi mid, Polymarket mid, and the gap in cents per player
Player · marketKalshiPolymarketGapTrade
Josh AllenPassing touchdowns leader4.5¢8.2¢-3.7¢Kalshi → · Polymarket →
T.J. WattSacks leader8.0¢4.3¢+3.7¢Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Jared GoffPassing yards leader14.5¢18.0¢-3.5¢Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Jordan LovePassing yards leader2.0¢5.3¢-3.3¢Kalshi → · Polymarket →
James Cook IIIRushing yards leader8.5¢11.5¢-3.0¢Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving yards leader4.0¢7.0¢-3.0¢Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Brock PurdyMVP19.5¢22.1¢-2.6¢Kalshi → · Polymarket →
George PickensReceiving yards leader1.5¢4.0¢-2.5¢Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Jared GoffPassing touchdowns leader12.5¢15.0¢-2.5¢Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Aidan HutchinsonSacks leader6.0¢8.5¢-2.5¢Kalshi → · Polymarket →

Full season-leader board — 155 players priced on both venues across 9 markets →

Polymarket prices are from the international book. Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own order book — verify the price there before taking a position.

How to read this board — and what we are not claiming

Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike: exact when a book quotes that line, linearly interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, and refused — shown as off-ladder — when they do not. We never extrapolate past the ladder and never count a line quoted by a single book. Exchange quotes (Novig, ProphetX) are shown exactly as quoted and labelled raw: their ladders are mostly one-sided, and de-vigging one side would invent a number.

Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only — spread within our prop gate and open interest or volume above zero. A strike quoted 1¢/99¢ is listed, not priced, and shows as such. A gap wider than 30 cents on a booked strike is flagged check rather than published: on a liquid market that size of disagreement is far likelier to be a stale quote than a price.

We are not claiming to beat the market. The Oracle calls come from a prop backtest graded against a trailing-average proxy line, not real closing prices, so it tells us whether a stated 10-point edge behaves like ten points — calibration — and nothing about beat rate. The measure that would settle it is closing line value, captured live from Week 1 and published once there is a season of it. The game model underneath, DAEPA, is graded on 3,266 games (2013–2024): 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, 0.664 log loss — figures that grade game outcomes, not props.

NFL player props on Kalshi — FAQ

What is on the NFL prop market board?

Every player-prop contract Kalshi lists for the current NFL week — passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and anytime touchdown, one row per strike. Beside each Kalshi price sits the sportsbook consensus probability read at that exact strike, the prices Novig and ProphetX quote for the same line, and the gap between Kalshi and consensus in cents. Kalshi prices refresh every 10 minutes; the sportsbook consensus is re-read hourly, and the board says when each was last read.

What does the gap column mean?

A Kalshi contract pays $1 if the player clears the line, so its price in cents is an implied probability. The gap is that price minus the sportsbook consensus probability at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over higher than the books; negative means Kalshi is cheaper. We tag a gap at 5¢ or more when at least three books underpin the consensus, and a wide gap at 8¢. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation — it is where two markets disagree, which is where a trader should look first.

Why do some rows say "listed · no book" or "off-ladder"?

Kalshi lists a week’s prop strikes early and most are not priced until a day or two before kickoff — a 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a book, and we never manufacture a mid from it. Off-ladder means the sportsbooks quote lines that do not bracket that Kalshi strike; we read the book curve at a strike only when it sits between two real quoted lines, and we never extrapolate past the ladder.

Does Polymarket have NFL player props?

Not weekly ones. Polymarket lists season-long leader markets — passing, rushing and receiving yards leaders, receptions and touchdown leaders, MVP and the AP awards — but no per-game player props, so there is no Polymarket column on the weekly board. Kalshi is the only prediction market with a weekly prop ladder, which is why this board is built around it.

Why does the board say YES or NO on "3+ receptions" instead of over/under 2.5?

Because that is the contract. Every Kalshi NFL player prop is an "X or more" market — 3+ receptions, 50+ rushing yards, 4+ passing touchdowns — and a YES contract pays $1 if the player gets there. The sportsbook phrasing "over 2.5" describes the same event, and we keep it as a muted note on each row, but a reader comparing a 2.6-reception projection to "2.5" gets the wrong answer: the contract needs 3. So the call is YES or NO on the contract, the market price shown is the price of the side we are calling, and the edge is stated on that side. Where our average projection sits on the other side of the threshold from our call — a right-skewed stat where a few big games lift the average — the row carries a SKEW badge.

What is an Oracle call, and does the model beat the market?

An Oracle call is a strike where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough, on a prop type our own backtest validates, that we publish it as a PLAY or a WATCH. We do not claim the model beats the market. Our prop backtest grades against a trailing-average proxy line, not real closing prices, so it is a calibration check — does a stated 10-point edge behave like 10 points — and nothing more. The honest measure is closing line value, captured live from Week 1, and we will publish it once we have a season of it.

How accurate is the model behind the Oracle calls?

The game model these projections descend from, DAEPA, is graded on 3,266 games from 2013–2024 in a walk-forward backtest: 59.6% straight up, a Brier score of 0.236 and log loss of 0.664. Those figures grade game outcomes, not player props; the prop layer is newer, which is why we publish CLV rather than borrowing the game model’s record.

Which prop types get Oracle calls, and why not all of them?

Rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and passing touchdowns. Passing yards and anytime touchdown are deliberately never published as calls, even when Kalshi lists them and our model shows a gap: across 10,161 graded player-weeks from 2024 and 2025 the top edge decile hits between 54% and 66% on the four we publish, 46% on passing yards, and anytime touchdown fails the same test. Their Kalshi prices still appear on the market board — the price is real even where our opinion is not worth stating.

Every player on this board has a page — projection, range, every booked Kalshi strike. Browse all player pages →

Same model, inside your AI agent

The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

See the in-season NFL tools →

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