NFL Player Prop Prices — Kalshi vs Sportsbook Consensus vs Novig
Every NFL player prop Kalshi lists this week, priced against what the big books agree on at the same line and what the other exchanges are asking. A Kalshi contract pays $1 if the player clears the line, so its price in cents is a probability — which makes the comparison direct. Where Kalshi is cheaper than everyone else for a side, the gap says so in cents.
2026 · Week 1 · Kalshi as of Sep 11, 9:00 PM ET · books as of Sep 11, 8:15 PM ET · 3744 Kalshi prop strikes listed · 1744 with a real two-sided book · 224 priced against 3+ books · widest gap: Bijan Robinson 50+ rush yds, Kalshi 28¢ above consensus · top Oracle call: Justin Herbert
This week at a glance
Oracle calls
Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough, on a prop type our backtest validates, we publish a call — YES or NO on the contract as Kalshi lists it (“3+ receptions”, not “over 2.5”), with the market price of that side beside it. This is the only thing on the page that says play. Priced Sep 12. Projections refresh Wednesday 10 AM ET and again Friday 4 PM ET after the final game-status report; Kalshi prices every 10 minutes.
| Player | Contract | Matchup | Call | Our proj | Our odds | Mkt | Edge | Tier | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase BrownRB | 4+ receptionsover 3.5 | CIN vs TB | NOSkew | 3.5 | 58% | 50¢ | +7.0 pp | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Justin HerbertQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | LAC vs ARI | NO | 1.5 | 57% | 37¢ | +20.1 pp | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Garrett WilsonWR | 6+ receptionsover 5.5 | NYJ vs TEN | NOSkew | 5.6 | 57% | 50¢ | +6.4 pp | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Derrick HenryRBWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | BAL vs IND | YES | 1.6 | 52% | 33¢ | +19.3 pp | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| RJ HarveyRB | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | DEN vs KC | NO | 2.4 | 62% | 51¢ | +10.0 pp | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Breece HallRB | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | NYJ vs TEN | NOSkew | 2.6 | 58% | 45¢ | +12.1 pp | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | PIT vs ATL | NO | 2.4 | 62% | 44¢ | +17.5 pp | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Ladd McConkeyWR | 5+ receptionsover 4.5 | LAC vs ARI | NO | 4.4 | 59% | 46¢ | +13.4 pp | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Dalton KincaidTE | 4+ receptionsover 3.5 | BUF vs HOU | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Zay FlowersWR | 5+ receptionsover 4.5 | BAL vs IND | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| George PickensWR | 5+ receptionsover 4.5 | DAL vs NYG | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Jalen HurtsQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | PHI vs WAS | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Kalif RaymondWR | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | CHI vs CAR | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Caleb WilliamsQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | CHI vs CAR | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Jonathan TaylorRB | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | IND vs BAL | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Kyler MurrayQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | MIN vs GB | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| James CookRB | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | BUF vs HOU | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Sam LaPortaTE | 4+ receptionsover 3.5 | DET vs NO | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Jaxson DartQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | NYG vs DAL | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Tommy TrembleTE | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | CAR vs CHI | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy YES → |
| Pat BryantWR | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | DEN vs KC | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Isaiah LikelyTE | 4+ receptionsover 3.5 | NYG vs DAL | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Noah GrayTEWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | KC vs DEN | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Bryce YoungQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | CAR vs CHI | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | JAX vs CLE | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Andrei IosivasWR | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | CIN vs TB | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy YES → |
| Parker WashingtonWR | 5+ receptionsover 4.5 | JAX vs CLE | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Pat FreiermuthTE | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | PIT vs ATL | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR | 7+ receptionsover 6.5 | CIN vs TB | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Kirk CousinsQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | LV vs MIA | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Quentin JohnstonWR | 4+ receptionsover 3.5 | LAC vs ARI | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Tony PollardRB | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | TEN vs NYJ | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Tyler ShoughQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | NO vs DET | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Rashod BatemanWR | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | BAL vs IND | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy YES → |
| Jauan JenningsWRWatch | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | MIN vs GB | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Cam SkatteboRB | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | NYG vs DAL | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy YES → |
| Dawson KnoxTEWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | BUF vs HOU | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Quinshon JudkinsRBWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | CLE vs JAX | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Deshaun WatsonQBWatch | 1+ pass TDsover 0.5 | CLE vs JAX | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Kayshon BoutteWRWatch | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | HOU vs BUF | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Ja'Kobi LaneWRWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | BAL vs IND | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Greg DulcichTEWatch | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | MIA vs LV | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Rico DowdleRBWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | PIT vs ATL | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Tyler ShoughQB | 15+ rush ydsover 14.5 | NO vs DET | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Cooper RushQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | ATL vs PIT | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR | 5+ receptionsover 4.5 | TEN vs NYJ | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy YES → |
| Malik WillisQB | 1+ pass TDsover 0.5 | MIA vs LV | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy YES → |
| Caleb WilliamsQB | 20+ rush ydsover 19.5 | CHI vs CAR | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Jalen HurtsQB | 25+ rush ydsover 24.5 | PHI vs WAS | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Charlie KolarTE | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | LAC vs ARI | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Mason TaylorTEWatch | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | NYJ vs TEN | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Kenny GainwellRBWatch | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | TB vs CIN | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Jahan DotsonWRWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | ATL vs PIT | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| CeeDee LambWR | 7+ receptionsover 6.5 | DAL vs NYG | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Jerry JeudyWRWatch | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | CLE vs JAX | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Charlie KolarTEWatch | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | LAC vs ARI | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Tee HigginsWR | 6+ receptionsover 5.5 | CIN vs TB | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| David MontgomeryRBWatch | 40+ rush ydsover 39.5 | HOU vs BUF | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Josh AllenQB | 30+ rush ydsover 29.5 | BUF vs HOU | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Adonai MitchellWRWatch | 3+ receptionsover 2.5 | NYJ vs TEN | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| De'Von AchaneRB | 60+ rush ydsover 59.5 | MIA vs LV | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Jaxson DartQB | 30+ rush ydsover 29.5 | NYG vs DAL | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Bryce YoungQB | 15+ rush ydsover 14.5 | CAR vs CHI | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Chase BrownRB | 25+ rec ydsover 24.5 | CIN vs TB | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Carnell TateWRWatch | 4+ receptionsover 3.5 | TEN vs NYJ | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Darren WallerTEWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | CAR vs CHI | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Daniel JonesQB | 10+ rush ydsover 9.5 | IND vs BAL | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Mark AndrewsTE | 35+ rec ydsover 34.5 | BAL vs IND | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Mark AndrewsTEWatch | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | BAL vs IND | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Sam LaPortaTE | 40+ rec ydsover 39.5 | DET vs NO | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Jonathan TaylorRB | 70+ rush ydsover 69.5 | IND vs BAL | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Javonte WilliamsRB | 60+ rush ydsover 59.5 | DAL vs NYG | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| James CookRB | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | BUF vs HOU | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Isaiah LikelyTE | 40+ rec ydsover 39.5 | NYG vs DAL | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Breece HallRB | 50+ rush ydsover 49.5 | NYJ vs TEN | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Omarion HamptonRB | 50+ rush ydsover 49.5 | LAC vs ARI | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Saquon BarkleyRB | 70+ rush ydsover 69.5 | PHI vs WAS | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Joe BurrowQBWatch | 10+ rush ydsover 9.5 | CIN vs TB | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Cam SkatteboRB | 50+ rush ydsover 49.5 | NYG vs DAL | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | JAX vs CLE | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Omarion HamptonRB | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | LAC vs ARI | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy YES → |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | 60+ rush ydsover 59.5 | CLE vs JAX | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Jordan MasonRBWatch | 40+ rush ydsover 39.5 | MIN vs GB | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Patrick MahomesQBWatch | 15+ rush ydsover 14.5 | KC vs DEN | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| De'Von AchaneRB | 25+ rec ydsover 24.5 | MIA vs LV | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Bucky IrvingRB | 50+ rush ydsover 49.5 | TB vs CIN | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Kyler MurrayQB | 25+ rush ydsover 24.5 | MIN vs GB | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Samaje PerineRB | 20+ rush ydsover 19.5 | CIN vs TB | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH | Buy YES → |
| Bucky IrvingRBWatch | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | TB vs CIN | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| James CookRB | 50+ rush ydsover 49.5 | BUF vs HOU | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Aaron JonesRBWatch | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | MIN vs GB | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Justin HerbertQBWatch | 20+ rush ydsover 19.5 | LAC vs ARI | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Woody MarksRBWatch | 30+ rush ydsover 29.5 | HOU vs BUF | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| RJ HarveyRBWatch | 20+ rush ydsover 19.5 | DEN vs KC | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Cam SkatteboRBWatch | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | NYG vs DAL | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Mason TaylorTEWatch | 25+ rec ydsover 24.5 | NYJ vs TEN | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Greg DulcichTEWatch | 25+ rec ydsover 24.5 | MIA vs LV | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
| Malik WillisQB | 40+ rush ydsover 39.5 | MIA vs LV | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG | Buy NO → |
| Bhayshul TutenRBWatch | 50+ rush ydsover 49.5 | JAX vs CLE | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Bijan RobinsonRBWatch | 15+ rec ydsover 14.5 | ATL vs PIT | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE | Buy YES → |
100 of 100 props · 92 locked (Pro)
Skew — our projection is an average, and on a right-skewed stat a few big games can pull it past a threshold most games never reach. The call comes from the full distribution, not the average; the badge says the two disagree. Never the top call.
Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.
Showing 8 of 100 — free, always.
Pro opens the full board, plus edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, the cross-market scanner and agent access over MCP. 26% off your first month ($11.09) — code applies automatically, ends Dec 31.
Prop market board
Every Kalshi strike this week. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents — positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books. Exchange quotes are shown raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call — and it is read across two clocks: Kalshi prices refresh every 10 minutes, the sportsbook consensus hourly, so late in an hour a gap can be a fresh Kalshi mid against a book median up to an hour old. Both times are stated on the board.
| Player | Prop | Game | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Novig | ProphetX | Best price | Our P(over) | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreySF v LARarb | 3+ rec | SF @ LAR | 92.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -614 / u -9900 | o -890 | over · DK 85.1¢under · Kalshi 9.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.SF v LAR | 5+ rec | SF @ LAR | 29.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +335 / u -9900 | o +270 | over · DK 21.1¢under · Kalshi 76.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 50+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 56.5¢ | 51.4%2bk | +5.1¢ | o -127 | o -132 | over · Novig 55.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v CAR | 15+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 47.0¢ | 50.5%2bk | -3.5¢ | o -111 | — | over · FD 50.5¢under · BetRivers 53.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Luther Burden IIICHI v CAR | 60+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 46.5¢ | 49.8%3bk | -3.3¢ | o +100 | o -101 / u -118 | over · Fanatics 47.6¢under · ProphetX 54.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungQBCAR v CHI | 15+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 47.5¢ | 50.5%5bk | -3.0¢ | o +104 / u -108 | o +102 / u -134 | over · Novig 49¢under · Novig 51.9¢ | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Luther Burden IIICHI v CAR | 5+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 51.5¢ | 54.5%6bk | -3.0¢ | o -111 / u +102 | o -125 / u +112 | over · Novig 52.6¢under · ProphetX 47.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 40+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 52.5¢ | 50.0%7bk | +2.5¢ | o -120 / u -104 | o -112 / u -103 | over · BetRivers 51.9¢under · Kalshi 49.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Cole KmetCHI v CAR | 15+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 48.0¢ | 49.8%4bk | -1.8¢ | o -111 / u -115 | o -112 | over · FD 50.5¢under · Novig 53.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Tommy TrembleTECAR v CHI | 2+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 46.5¢ | 48.1%6bk | -1.6¢ | o -106 / u +100 | o +106 / u -122 | over · ProphetX 48.5¢under · Novig 50¢ | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Kyle MonangaiCHI v CAR | 2+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 32.5¢ | 34.0%4bk | -1.5¢ | o +182 / u -239 | o +180 / u -215 | over · Kalshi 34.6¢under · ProphetX 68.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v CAR | 2+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 63.0¢ | 61.8%4bk | +1.2¢ | o -208 / u +160 | o -186 / u -260 | over · ProphetX 65¢under · Novig 38.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Darren WallerTECAR v CHI | 2+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 61.0¢ | 59.9%3bk | +1.1¢ | — | o -168 / u +138 | over · ProphetX 62.7¢under · Kalshi 41.7¢ | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 1+ pass TDs | CHI @ CAR | 78.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungQBCAR v CHI | 2+ pass TDs | CHI @ CAR | 43.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungQBCAR v CHI | 3+ pass TDs | CHI @ CAR | 16.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 125+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 89.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -1438 | — | over · Kalshi 91.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 150+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 82.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -567 | — | over · Kalshi 84¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungQBCAR v CHI | 200+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 54.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -147 | — | over · Fanatics 56.5¢ | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungQBCAR v CHI | 225+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 40.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +117 | — | over · BetRivers 41.2¢ | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungQBCAR v CHI | 250+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 25.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +228 | — | over · BetRivers 27¢ | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 275+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 16.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +388 | — | over · Fanatics 18.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 300+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 8.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +669 | — | over · Kalshi 9.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 325+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 6.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +852 | — | over · Fanatics 7.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 10+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 63.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -223 | — | over · Kalshi 66.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 20+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 34.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +170 | — | over · Kalshi 36.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 25+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 25.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +264 | — | over · FD 27¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 30+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 17.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +400 | o +400 | over · Kalshi 19¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce YoungCAR v CHI | 40+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 8.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +809 | o +860 | over · Kalshi 9.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 1+ pass TDs | CHI @ CAR | 83.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsQBCHI v CAR | 2+ pass TDs | CHI @ CAR | 49.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsQBCHI v CAR | 3+ pass TDs | CHI @ CAR | 19.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 150+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 89.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -1150 | — | over · Kalshi 90.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 175+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 78.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -456 | — | over · Kalshi 80.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 200+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 65.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -233 | — | over · Kalshi 67.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 225+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 50.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -122 | — | over · Fanatics 52.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 250+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 34.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +153 | — | over · Kalshi 36.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 275+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 21.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +251 | — | over · Kalshi 24.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 300+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 14.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +441 | — | over · Kalshi 15.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 350+ pass yds | CHI @ CAR | 5.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +1150 | — | over · Kalshi 6.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 10+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 75.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -426 | — | over · Kalshi 78.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 15+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 62.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -212 | — | over · Kalshi 65.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsQBCHI v CAR | 25+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 38.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +127 | o +138 | over · Kalshi 40.7¢ | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 30+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 27.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +194 | o +225 | over · Kalshi 30.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 40+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 15.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +456 | o +455 | over · FD 17.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v CAR | 50+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 8.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +852 | o +860 | over · Kalshi 9.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Chuba HubbardCAR v CHI | 15+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 33.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Chuba HubbardCAR v CHI | 50+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 47.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 52.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Chuba HubbardCAR v CHI | 60+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 34.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 41.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Chuba HubbardCAR v CHI | 70+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 24.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 31.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Chuba HubbardCAR v CHI | 80+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 18.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 23.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Chuba HubbardCAR v CHI | 100+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 10.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 12.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Chuba HubbardCAR v CHI | 110+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 8.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 9.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 25+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 79.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 84.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 40+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 62.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -217 / u +150 | o -240 | over · Novig 68.5¢under · Novig 40¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 60+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 43.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +127 / u -186 | o +127 | over · Novig 44.1¢under · Kalshi 58.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 70+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 32.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o +196 | over · ProphetX 33.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 80+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 24.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +285 | o +290 | over · ProphetX 25.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 90+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 14.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o +440 | over · ProphetX 18.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 100+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 11.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +567 | o +620 | over · FD 13.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 110+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 6.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 7.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 120+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 3.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 4.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 130+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 2.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 3.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 3+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 80.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -700 | — | over · Kalshi 84¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 4+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 63.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -292 | — | over · Kalshi 69.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 6+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 30.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +153 | — | over · Kalshi 33.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v CAR | 7+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 20.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +277 | — | over · BetRivers 21.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v CAR | 25+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 24.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · FD 30.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v CAR | 60+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 52.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -138 | — | over · Kalshi 55.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v CAR | 80+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 31.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +182 | o +178 | over · DK 33¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v CAR | 100+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 16.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +365 | o +380 | over · DK 17.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v CAR | 110+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 12.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +525 | o +540 | over · DK 12¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v CAR | 120+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 9.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · DK 8.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v CAR | 130+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 5.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · DK 6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Darren WallerCAR v CHI | 15+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 53.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 56.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Darren WallerCAR v CHI | 25+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 29.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 35.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Darren WallerCAR v CHI | 40+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 14.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 16.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Darren WallerCAR v CHI | 4+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 16.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 19¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 15+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 82.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 86.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 25+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 68.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 75.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 50+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 34.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o +150 | over · Kalshi 37.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 60+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 24.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +213 | o +235 | over · Kalshi 28.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 70+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 16.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o +355 | over · Kalshi 20.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 90+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 7.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o +740 | over · Kalshi 9.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 110+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 3.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 4.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 2+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 87.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -1233 | — | over · Kalshi 90.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 3+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 72.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -326 | — | over · Kalshi 75.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 4+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 52.5¢ | 53.5%6bk | -1.0¢ | o -125 / u +120 | o -126 / u +115 | over · Kalshi 54.7¢under · Novig 45.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 5+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 33.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +156 | — | over · ESPN Bet 36.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen CokerCAR v CHI | 6+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 18.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +292 | — | over · Kalshi 21.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jonathon BrooksCAR v CHI | 50+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 26.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Jonathon BrooksCAR v CHI | 70+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 14.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Jonathon BrooksCAR v CHI | 80+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 10.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Kalif RaymondCHI v CAR | 15+ rec yds | CHI @ CAR | 51.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · DK 55.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kalif RaymondWRCHI v CAR | 2+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 48.5¢ | 49.5%4bk | -1.0¢ | o -106 / u -111 | o -115 / u -109 | over · Kalshi 50.8¢under · ProphetX 52.2¢ | Pro subscribers only | Kalshi → |
| Kalif RaymondCHI v CAR | 3+ rec | CHI @ CAR | 23.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | over · Kalshi 26.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyle MonangaiCHI v CAR | 15+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 79.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -471 | — | over · Kalshi 82.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyle MonangaiCHI v CAR | 20+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 70.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -292 | — | over · Kalshi 73.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyle MonangaiCHI v CAR | 25+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 61.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -194 | — | over · Kalshi 63.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyle MonangaiCHI v CAR | 30+ rush yds | CHI @ CAR | 52.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -133 | — | over · Kalshi 54.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
MCP · nfl_prop_board
Season leaders: Kalshi vs Polymarket, widest gaps
Updated Sep 11, 8:50 PM ETThe same player, the same season-long question, two prediction-market prices. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the Polymarket mid in cents — where the two venues disagree most on who leads the league or wins the award.
| Player · market | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRushing yards leader | 11.5¢ | 19.0¢ | -7.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| James Cook IIIRushing yards leader | 6.5¢ | 14.0¢ | -7.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Saquon BarkleyRushing touchdowns leader | 4.5¢ | 11.0¢ | -6.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Caleb WilliamsPassing touchdowns leader | 8.5¢ | 2.3¢ | +6.2¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving touchdowns leader | 3.5¢ | 9.0¢ | -5.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Maxx CrosbySacks leader | 7.0¢ | 12.5¢ | -5.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving yards leader | 5.5¢ | 10.5¢ | -5.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Puka NacuaReceiving touchdowns leader | 4.0¢ | 9.0¢ | -5.0¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Justin HerbertPassing yards leader | 6.5¢ | 2.0¢ | +4.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
| Jonathan TaylorRushing yards leader | 11.0¢ | 15.5¢ | -4.5¢ | Kalshi → · Polymarket → |
Full season-leader board — 153 players priced on both venues across 9 markets →
Polymarket prices are from the international book. Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own order book — verify the price there before taking a position.
How to read this board — and what we are not claiming
Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike: exact when a book quotes that line, linearly interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, and refused — shown as off-ladder — when they do not. We never extrapolate past the ladder and never count a line quoted by a single book. Exchange quotes (Novig, ProphetX) are shown exactly as quoted and labelled raw: their ladders are mostly one-sided, and de-vigging one side would invent a number.
Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only — spread within our prop gate and open interest or volume above zero. A strike quoted 1¢/99¢ is listed, not priced, and shows as such. A gap wider than 30 cents on a booked strike is flagged check rather than published: on a liquid market that size of disagreement is far likelier to be a stale quote than a price.
We are not claiming to beat the market. The Oracle calls come from a prop backtest graded against a trailing-average proxy line, not real closing prices, so it tells us whether a stated 10-point edge behaves like ten points — calibration — and nothing about beat rate. The measure that would settle it is closing line value, captured live from Week 1 and published once there is a season of it. The game model underneath, DAEPA, is graded on 3,266 games (2013–2024): 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, 0.664 log loss — figures that grade game outcomes, not props.
NFL player props on Kalshi — FAQ
What is on the NFL prop market board?
Every player-prop contract Kalshi lists for the current NFL week — passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and anytime touchdown, one row per strike. Beside each Kalshi price sits the sportsbook consensus probability read at that exact strike, the prices Novig and ProphetX quote for the same line, and the gap between Kalshi and consensus in cents. Kalshi prices refresh every 10 minutes; the sportsbook consensus is re-read hourly, and the board says when each was last read.
What does the gap column mean?
A Kalshi contract pays $1 if the player clears the line, so its price in cents is an implied probability. The gap is that price minus the sportsbook consensus probability at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over higher than the books; negative means Kalshi is cheaper. We tag a gap at 5¢ or more when at least three books underpin the consensus, and a wide gap at 8¢. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation — it is where two markets disagree, which is where a trader should look first.
Why do some rows say "listed · no book" or "off-ladder"?
Kalshi lists a week’s prop strikes early and most are not priced until a day or two before kickoff — a 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a book, and we never manufacture a mid from it. Off-ladder means the sportsbooks quote lines that do not bracket that Kalshi strike; we read the book curve at a strike only when it sits between two real quoted lines, and we never extrapolate past the ladder.
Does Polymarket have NFL player props?
Not weekly ones. Polymarket lists season-long leader markets — passing, rushing and receiving yards leaders, receptions and touchdown leaders, MVP and the AP awards — but no per-game player props, so there is no Polymarket column on the weekly board. Kalshi is the only prediction market with a weekly prop ladder, which is why this board is built around it.
Why does the board say YES or NO on "3+ receptions" instead of over/under 2.5?
Because that is the contract. Every Kalshi NFL player prop is an "X or more" market — 3+ receptions, 50+ rushing yards, 4+ passing touchdowns — and a YES contract pays $1 if the player gets there. The sportsbook phrasing "over 2.5" describes the same event, and we keep it as a muted note on each row, but a reader comparing a 2.6-reception projection to "2.5" gets the wrong answer: the contract needs 3. So the call is YES or NO on the contract, the market price shown is the price of the side we are calling, and the edge is stated on that side. Where our average projection sits on the other side of the threshold from our call — a right-skewed stat where a few big games lift the average — the row carries a SKEW badge.
What is an Oracle call, and does the model beat the market?
An Oracle call is a strike where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough, on a prop type our own backtest validates, that we publish it as a PLAY or a WATCH. We do not claim the model beats the market. Our prop backtest grades against a trailing-average proxy line, not real closing prices, so it is a calibration check — does a stated 10-point edge behave like 10 points — and nothing more. The honest measure is closing line value, captured live from Week 1, and we will publish it once we have a season of it.
How accurate is the model behind the Oracle calls?
The game model these projections descend from, DAEPA, is graded on 3,266 games from 2013–2024 in a walk-forward backtest: 59.6% straight up, a Brier score of 0.236 and log loss of 0.664. Those figures grade game outcomes, not player props; the prop layer is newer, which is why we publish CLV rather than borrowing the game model’s record.
Which prop types get Oracle calls, and why not all of them?
Rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and passing touchdowns. Passing yards and anytime touchdown are deliberately never published as calls, even when Kalshi lists them and our model shows a gap: across 10,161 graded player-weeks from 2024 and 2025 the top edge decile hits between 54% and 66% on the four we publish, 46% on passing yards, and anytime touchdown fails the same test. Their Kalshi prices still appear on the market board — the price is real even where our opinion is not worth stating.
Every player on this board has a page — projection, range, every booked Kalshi strike. Browse all player pages →
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
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