NFL Player Props vs Kalshi: The Model Edge Board
Every Kalshi player-prop contract we have a projection for, with the model’s probability next to the market’s price and the gap between them. A prop contract pays $1 if the player clears the line, so its price in cents is an implied probability — which makes the comparison direct in a way a traditional price never allows. Sorted by the size of the disagreement, biggest first.
The board opens Week 1
Kalshi lists player-prop contracts once a week’s slate firms up, a few days before kickoff, so there is nothing priced to compare against right now. The 2026 season opens Wednesday, September 9 — the first Wednesday opener since 2012 — and this board fills in as those contracts list.
We would rather show you an empty board than a stale one. Until the markets exist, the methodology below is the whole of what we can honestly claim, and the player projection board carries the underlying numbers in the meantime.
How to read this board — and what we are not claiming
The edge column is our probability minus the market’s, in percentage points. The confidence tier buckets that gap: STRONG at 12 points or more, HIGH at 8, MODERATE at 5, LOW below that. A wide edge on a thinly quoted contract often means nobody has priced it carefully yet rather than that we have found something — the tier sorts, it does not recommend.
We are not claiming to beat the market. Our prop backtest grades against a trailing-average proxy line, not against real closing prices, so it tells us whether a stated 10-point edge behaves like ten points — calibration — and nothing about beat rate. The measure that would settle it is closing line value, and CLV exists only if it is captured live, contract by contract, as the season runs. We start capturing at Week 1 and will publish the record once there is a season of it. The game model underneath, DAEPA, is graded on 3,266 games (2013–2024): 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, 0.664 log loss — figures that grade game outcomes, not props.
NFL player props vs Kalshi — FAQ
What is an NFL player prop edge?
A prop contract on Kalshi pays $1 if a player clears a stated line — say 249.5 passing yards — so its price in cents is the market’s implied probability. We run our own projection for that same line and convert it to a probability. The edge is the gap between the two, in percentage points. A +9pp edge means our model thinks the outcome is 9 points more likely than the price implies. It is a disagreement, not a guarantee.
Does this board beat the market?
We do not claim that, and we will not until we can show it. Our prop backtest grades against a trailing-average proxy line rather than against real closing prices, which makes it a calibration check — does a stated edge of 10 points behave like 10 points — and not a measure of whether we beat the market. The only honest measure is closing line value, and CLV can only be captured live, contract by contract, as the season runs. We capture it from Week 1 and we will publish it once we have a season of it. A number we have to walk back later is worth less than the wait.
What does the confidence tier mean?
It buckets the size of the edge: STRONG is 12 percentage points or more, HIGH is 8 or more, MODERATE is 5 or more, and LOW is under 5. Bigger is not automatically better — a large edge on a thin market can just mean nobody has quoted it properly yet. Tier is a sorting aid, not a recommendation, and position size is your call.
How accurate is the model behind these props?
The game model these projections descend from, DAEPA, is graded on 3,266 games from 2013–2024 in a walk-forward backtest: 59.6% straight up, a Brier score of 0.236 and log loss of 0.664. Its hit rate rises monotonically with its own stated edge, which is the property that matters — the model knows when it knows. Those figures grade game outcomes, not player props; the prop layer is newer and is why we publish CLV rather than borrowing the game model’s record.
When do the prop markets open?
Kalshi lists player-prop contracts for a given week once the slate firms up, which in practice is a few days before kickoff. The 2026 season opens Wednesday September 9. Before markets populate, this page shows methodology rather than a board — an empty board is the honest state, and we would rather show nothing than show something that looks live and is not.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
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