Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Titans by 0 in Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans, NFL Week 13 2026 — 51% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.2 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06WASTEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Titans at 46c or below (or Commanders at 44c or below) is where the model would take a position.
WAS
-1.5
TEN
-3.7
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Commanders
49%
model win prob
Titans
51%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
49%
Madden 27
51%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06WASTEN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Titans at 46c or below, or the Commanders at 44c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Commanders at Titans
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Titans −6.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 more rungsTitans −7.5 → Titans −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Commanders–Titans is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Commanders rate -1.5 (23rd of 32) against -3.7 for the Titans (29th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 2.2-point gap between them, so the model lands at 51% for the Titans anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 1st-closest of the 14 games in Week 13, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.7 projected wins for the Titans against 7.6 for the Commanders, favored in 3 and 3 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 15th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 14th-hardest on the Commanders'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Commanders offense grades +1.0 (13th of 32) against a Titans defense at -1.5 (21st) — 2.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.8, 29th) meets the Commanders defense (-2.8, 29th), a 0.1-point gap.
Recent history, for context only: 7 regular-season meetings since 2002, 4-3 in the Commanders' favour. They last met in 2024: Commanders won 42-19 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
On conditions: Tennessee home games in December have run a median 51°F and 8 mph of wind across 13 games since 2015, with 15% at or below 40°F and a low of 23°F. Our model has no weather term, so treat that as an input it has not priced.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Titans at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC06WASTEN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 51% / 49% — the tradable window is narrow: Titans at 46c or below, Commanders at 44c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Commanders vs Titans on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC06WASTEN
- Market-implied (Titans)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Titans)
- 51%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06WASTEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Titans at 46c or below, or the Commanders at 44c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Commanders vs Titans trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Titans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Commanders vs Titans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Commanders vs Titans in Week 13?
Our power-rating model calls it a toss-up, 51% on the Titans, for a projected score of Titans 24, Commanders 23 on a ratings-implied 46.5-point total. The Titans rate 29th of 32 (-3.7) and the Commanders 23rd (-1.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06WASTEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Titans (-3.7, 29th) and Commanders (-1.5, 23rd) are only 2.2 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 51%/49%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Commanders vs Titans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06WASTEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Titans at 46c or below, or the Commanders at 44c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Titans host the Commanders?
Washington Commanders visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.
What does the model project for the Titans and Commanders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Titans at 6.7 wins (favored in 3) and the Commanders at 7.6 (favored in 3). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 14th-hardest on the Commanders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Commanders vs Titans?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06WASTEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Titans at 46c or below or the Commanders at 44c or below, off a 0-point line.
Can you trade Commanders vs Titans on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 13 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC06WASTEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Titans?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Titans at 51% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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