Politics Prediction Markets

In 2024, both Polymarket and Kalshi called all seven swing states correctly the night before — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. The polling averages had at least three of those tilting the other direction, with Polymarket pricing Trump at 61¢ on election eve while RealClearPolitics showed effectively a coin flip. Full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in our 2024 audit.

Kalshi is the only fully CFTC-regulated venue for US traders to take positions on political contracts — including 2026 midterm Senate and House races, 2028 congressional control, and the next-Speaker contender ladder. Polymarket is offshore and currently restricted for US traders, but its prices are useful as a cross-platform reference.

Yes — Kalshi is fully regulated by the CFTC and legally accessible to US traders in all 50 states for political event contracts. Polymarket is not currently licensed for US users due to a CFTC settlement; US traders can read its prices but cannot legally take positions.

A 60¢ Yes price means the market is implying a 60% probability the event happens. Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so 60¢ in / $1 out is roughly +67 American odds. The No side is implicitly priced at 40¢, or 40% probability the event does not happen.