Politics Prediction Markets
Kalshi + Polymarket prices on every political contract that matters — 2026 midterms, 2028 congressional control, daily movers, and the 2024 accuracy audit.
Updated Aug 5, 10:53 AM UTC
2026 Midterms
31 Senate states · 66 House districts · balance of power
Open markets →2028 Congressional
Senate, House, governors, next Speaker
Open markets →2028 Presidential
Dem nom · Rep nom · general winner · Trump-term contracts
Open markets →Politics Tools
Live 2028 Election Tracker →
Candidate prices + electoral map
Live 2026 Midterms Tracker →
Seat counts + control probabilities
Government Shutdown Tracker →
Market-implied shutdown odds
Fed Rate Tracker →
FOMC cut/hold/hike probabilities
State Availability Map →
Where you can legally trade, by state
Mispricing Scanner →
Daily edge report — politics included
2024 Accuracy AuditDid the markets actually call the 2024 election?
Polymarket had Trump at 61¢ on election eve. RealClearPolitics polling had it a coin flip. Two years later, with every county counted, here’s the state-by-state scorecard for Kalshi and Polymarket — including the races where the markets actually missed.
Midterms Money Tracker
Live volume · updated hourly19,817,402
contracts traded across the 2026 U.S. Senate, House, and chamber-control prediction markets on Kalshi.
227,478
Traded · 24h
12,803,913
Open interest
39
Live races
Where the money’s going — most-active races (24h)
- GA SenateJon Ossoff16,258
- ME SenateTroy Jackson14,553
- IA SenateAshley Hinson9,808
- AK SenateDemocratic party2,949
- MI-07Democratic party1,376
- TX-15Bobby Pulido1,303
Derived from live Kalshi and Polymarket public market data. Volume is contract count, not dollars. Reporters and researchers: these figures are free to cite with attribution to PredictionMarketsPicks. Updated hourly.
Live Political Market Movers
Reads & Analysis
Why McConnell Isn't Resigning Before the Midterms
Kalshi's McConnell resignation market is spiking on health headlines. But the contract settles on resignation, not health — and a death pays last traded price, not YES. Dane on why The 7 Oracles are on NO.
Read articlePolitics Markets — FAQ
How accurate are prediction markets at predicting elections?
In 2024, both Polymarket and Kalshi called all seven swing states correctly the night before — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. The polling averages had at least three of those tilting the other direction, with Polymarket pricing Trump at 61¢ on election eve while RealClearPolitics showed effectively a coin flip. Full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in our 2024 audit.
Where can I trade political prediction markets in the US?
Kalshi carries the deepest CFTC-regulated slate of political contracts for US traders — 2026 midterm Senate and House races, 2028 congressional control, and the next-Speaker contender ladder — and accepts accounts in all 50 states, though it geofences election contracts in Nevada from August 12, 2026 and faces a Washington injunction reaching politics markets. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-designated venue open to US traders since December 2025 with a narrower political slate, and its own listing states availability in every state except Nevada. The international Polymarket book is closed to US persons, but its prices are useful as a cross-platform reference.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and accepts accounts in all 50 states for political event contracts, with state-level exceptions worth knowing: under its July 24, 2026 stipulation with the Nevada Gaming Control Board, Kalshi geofences election contracts for Nevada traders from August 12, 2026, and a Washington preliminary injunction entered in early August covers elections and politics markets alongside sports. Polymarket US is also open to US traders for political contracts — a CFTC-designated exchange that launched in December 2025, whose own listing states availability in every state except Nevada. Polymarket's separate international book remains closed to US persons; we quote its prices as a cross-platform reference only. Check your state before trading — this is moving weekly.
How do I read a 60¢ price on a prediction market?
A 60¢ Yes price means the market is implying a 60% probability the event happens. Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so you risk 60¢ to win 40¢ — the equivalent of -150 in American odds. Any contract above 50¢ is a favorite, so it always converts to minus-money odds. The No side is implicitly priced at 40¢, or 40% probability the event does not happen.
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