Politics Prediction Markets
Kalshi + Polymarket prices on every political contract that matters — 2026 midterms, 2028 congressional control, daily movers, and the 2024 accuracy audit.
Updated Jun 21, 7:45 AM UTC
2026 Midterms
31 Senate states · 66 House districts · balance of power
Open markets →2028 Congressional
Senate, House, governors, next Speaker
Open markets →2028 Presidential
Dem nom · Rep nom · general winner · Trump-term contracts
Open markets →
2024 Accuracy AuditDid the markets actually call the 2024 election?
Polymarket had Trump at 61¢ on election eve. RealClearPolitics polling had it a coin flip. Two years later, with every county counted, here’s the state-by-state scorecard for Kalshi and Polymarket — including the races where the markets actually missed.
Live Political Market Movers
Reads & Analysis
Can Spencer Pratt Win the Los Angeles Mayor's Race?
NAndo on the $3M Kalshi LA mayor market, the $38k first-round contract, and why a 47¢ YES on a Trump primary endorsement is the cleanest position on the board.
Read articlePolitics Markets — FAQ
How accurate are prediction markets at predicting elections?
In 2024, both Polymarket and Kalshi called all seven swing states correctly the night before — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. The polling averages had at least three of those tilting the other direction, with Polymarket pricing Trump at 61¢ on election eve while RealClearPolitics showed effectively a coin flip. Full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in our 2024 audit.
Where can I trade political prediction markets in the US?
Kalshi is the only fully CFTC-regulated venue for US traders to take positions on political contracts — including 2026 midterm Senate and House races, 2028 congressional control, and the next-Speaker contender ladder. Polymarket is offshore and currently restricted for US traders, but its prices are useful as a cross-platform reference.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
Yes — Kalshi is fully regulated by the CFTC and legally accessible to US traders in all 50 states for political event contracts. Polymarket is not currently licensed for US users due to a CFTC settlement; US traders can read its prices but cannot legally take positions.
How do I read a 60¢ price on a prediction market?
A 60¢ Yes price means the market is implying a 60% probability the event happens. Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so 60¢ in / $1 out is roughly +67 American odds. The No side is implicitly priced at 40¢, or 40% probability the event does not happen.
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