Politics Prediction Markets
Kalshi + Polymarket prices on every political contract that matters — 2026 midterms, 2028 congressional control, daily movers, and the 2024 accuracy audit.
Updated Nov 4, 12:27 AM UTC
2026 Midterms
35 Senate races · 66 House districts · balance of power
Open markets →2028 Congressional
Senate, House, governors, next Speaker
Open markets →2028 Presidential
Dem nom · Rep nom · general winner · Trump-term contracts
Open markets →Polls lie. Markets don’t. — Latest video
3:03New episodePoliticsSouth Carolina Senate Midterm: Is the Market Underestimating Annie Andrews? | 7 OraclesThe video examines the South Carolina Senate race between Republican Darlene Graham and Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews, noting that Graham's market position has slipped from 89% to 76% over the past two months. The host points to new polls showing Andrews within one or two points, margin-of-error territory, and highlights high-profile endorsements from former governors Jim Hodges and David Beasley boosting her momentum. The discussion frames this as a race where trader sentiment is shifting faster than some expected, suggesting possible trading opportunities beyond the core winner market.▶ Watch nowNov 2, 2026Up next
18:44The Election Night Trading Strategy: Why “TOO EARLY TO CALL” Could Mean BIG Opportunities | 7OraclesOct 30, 2026
1:55Finding the Edge in the New Hampshire Senate Race | The 7 OraclesOct 29, 2026
5:26Ohio Senate Showdown: Why Prediction Markets Are Backing Sherrod BrownOct 24, 2026
5:05The Tool We Use to Find Midterm Trading Edges on Kalshi | The 7 Oracles Midterm HubOct 17, 2026Put the 2028 board on your site
Live prices · free to preview · publish under license, credit line includedPolitics Tools
Live 2028 Presidential Race →
Candidate ladder, ranked by market price
Live 2026 Midterms Tracker →
Seat counts + control probabilities
Government Shutdown Tracker →
Market-implied shutdown odds
Fed Rate Tracker →
FOMC cut/hold/hike probabilities
State Availability Map →
Where you can legally trade, by state
2024 Accuracy AuditDid the markets actually call the 2024 election?
Polymarket had Trump at 61¢ on election eve. RealClearPolitics polling had it a coin flip. Two years later, with every county counted, here’s the state-by-state scorecard for Kalshi and Polymarket — including the races where the markets actually missed.
Midterms Money Tracker
Live volume · updated hourly390,021,203
contracts traded across the 2026 U.S. Senate, House, and chamber-control prediction markets on Kalshi.
78,366,830
Traded · 24h
270,211,237
Open interest
100
Live races
Where the money’s going — most-active races (24h)
- TX SenateJames Talarico23,846,055
- MI SenateAbdul El-Sayed8,301,010
- IA SenateJosh Turek3,007,646
- ME SenateTroy Jackson2,814,717
- OH Senate (Special)Sherrod Brown2,244,156
- FL Senate (Special)Ashley Moody2,143,653
Derived from live Kalshi and Polymarket public market data. Volume is contract count, not dollars. Reporters and researchers: these figures are free to cite with attribution to PredictionMarketsPicks. Updated hourly.
Live Political Market Movers
The presidential history game
Road to Office: the presidential history game
Road to Office · 23 elections, FDR to Trump · Made by Ethan, age 11
Play free →Reads & Analysis
Texas Senate Odds: The Polls Are Wrong About Talarico vs. Paxton
Kalshi has James Talarico at 63¢ to beat Ken Paxton while Cook and Sabato call it a toss-up and Inside Elections says Lean R. The chart, the $131M that didn't move it, and the math on 63¢.
Read articlePolitics Markets — FAQ
How accurate are prediction markets at predicting elections?
In 2024, both Polymarket and Kalshi called all seven swing states correctly the night before — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. The polling averages had at least three of those tilting the other direction, with Polymarket pricing Trump at 61¢ on election eve while RealClearPolitics showed effectively a coin flip. Full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in our 2024 audit.
Where can I trade political prediction markets in the US?
Kalshi carries the deepest CFTC-regulated slate of political contracts for US traders — 2026 midterm Senate and House races, 2028 congressional control, and the next-Speaker contender ladder — and is available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some; it also geofences election contracts in Nevada from August 12, 2026 and faces a Washington injunction reaching politics markets. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-designated venue open to US traders since December 2025 with a narrower political slate, and its own listing states availability in every state except Nevada. The international Polymarket book is closed to US persons, but its prices are useful as a cross-platform reference.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and is available in most states for political event contracts, with state-level exceptions worth knowing: under its July 24, 2026 stipulation with the Nevada Gaming Control Board, Kalshi geofences election contracts for Nevada traders from August 12, 2026, and a Washington preliminary injunction entered in early August covers elections and politics markets alongside sports. Polymarket US is also open to US traders for political contracts — a CFTC-designated exchange that launched in December 2025, whose own listing states availability in every state except Nevada. Polymarket's separate international book remains closed to US persons; we quote its prices as a cross-platform reference only. Check your state before trading — this is moving weekly.
How do I read a 60¢ price on a prediction market?
A 60¢ Yes price means the market is implying a 60% probability the event happens. Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so you risk 60¢ to win 40¢ — the equivalent of -150 in American odds. Any contract above 50¢ is a favorite, so it always converts to minus-money odds. The No side is implicitly priced at 40¢, or 40% probability the event does not happen.
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