Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Dolphins

42%

model win prob

Jets

58%

model win prob

Model line

Jets −3

Kalshi (Jets)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Jets — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Miami Dolphins-2.630thBelow Avg

New York Jets-2.329thBelow Avg

The prediction-market read

In Week 7, the Miami Dolphins travel to face the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Jets 29th of 32 (Below Avg tier, -2.3) and the Dolphins 30th (Below Avg tier, -2.6). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Jets by 3 — a 58% win probability for the Jets.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 58% (Jets) / 42% (Dolphins) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC East divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC East race. Track the full division on the AFC East hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Dolphins vs Jets — frequently asked

Who is favored in Dolphins vs Jets in Week 7?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Jets by 3 points and gives them a 58% win probability over the Dolphins. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Dolphins vs Jets?

Home win probability 58% (Jets), away 42% (Dolphins). That comes from a power-rating differential of +0.3 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Jets rate 29th of 32 (Below Avg tier), the Dolphins 30th (Below Avg tier).

Can you trade Dolphins vs Jets on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.