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Home/NFL/Week 7/Dolphins vs Jets
Gridiron EdgeWeek 7 · 2026AFC East rivalry

Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25

Final. The rematch: Jets vs Dolphins, Week 12 →Upset: Dolphins closed +180 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 25, 2026): Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jets by 4.5 (65% to win); the Dolphins won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Jets at 65c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

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Settled

Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jets by 4.5 (65% to win). The Dolphins won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Jets: -4c — we archived the Jets at 69c on Oct 18; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 65c on Oct 25. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 7 · 2026-10-26

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Jets moneylineModel 65% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 65% on NYJ — kept as the pre-game record.65c66%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Dolphins 28, Jets 25: Malik Willis throws two touchdowns to Caleb Douglas, the second from 63, and pushes for the fourth-and-1 that gives Jeff Hafley his first win

Miami arrived 0-5 and won its first game under Hafley on Willis’s 2-yard push on fourth-and-1 at the two-minute warning. Willis completed 14 of 21 for 208 yards and two touchdowns to rookie Caleb Douglas, the second a 63-yard catch-and-run for a 28-17 lead with 4:44 left, and ran for another score. The Jets cut it to 28-25 on Geno Smith’s second touchdown pass to Mason Taylor and a 2-point conversion to Taylor. DraftKings opened New York a 2.5-point favorite and closed it at 3.5; Miami won outright, and 53 points finished over both the opening 41.5 and the closing 39.5.

Dolphins 28—Jets 25

Final✗ Call missed

The chip reads a miss. It grades our stored probability, which had New York at 65.5% (Miami 34.5%): the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 4.5-point line. Miami won. The quarterback gate read PASS. The model’s own read was New York by 4.7, a 0.2-point lean toward the Jets, tier NONE, and the Jets lost: the lean was wrong. The ledger holds no live position; its one row, a MODERATE Dolphins moneyline at 31.5¢, was voided on 2026-10-21 (no_longer_edge) and counts in neither direction. The preview on this page called Miami the league’s worst passing offense against a good pass defense; Willis averaged 9.9 yards per attempt. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Thirteen visible WATCH rows went 6-7 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. Greg Dulcich won all four (over 1.5 catches and over 9.5, 19.5 and 24.5 receiving yards) on five catches for 86, and both Taylor receiving-yards overs (14.5, 19.5) won on 62. The losses: all three Kenyon Sadiq overs (one catch for 6 yards), both Douglas catch overs (2.5 and 3.5; he caught two, for 70 yards and two touchdowns), Adonai Mitchell over 1.5 catches (none, on three targets) and Smith under 1.5 touchdown passes (three). Six rows on suppressed stats (four passing-yards rows, two anytime-touchdown rows) were never displayed and count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Jets −2.5 → Jets −3.5
Total
41.5 → 39.5
Moneyline
MIA +120 / NYJ −142 → MIA +180 / NYJ −218

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 2 to 39.5; the game landed on 53.

How it happened

Q1

Three touchdowns in the first 14 minutes

Miami went 76 yards in seven plays and took its first lead of the season on Willis’s 7-yard touchdown to Douglas, ending a five-game run in which the Jets had not allowed a point on an opening possession, per the AP. Smith hit Taylor from 13 yards to finish a four-play answer, and the Dolphins replied with a 14-play drive and Ollie Gordon II’s 1-yard run.

Miami opening drive
7 plays · 76 yds · 4:07
Gordon TD drive
14 plays · 60 yds · 7:35
After one
Dolphins 14, Jets 7

AP via ESPN — Malik Willis sparks first win for Jeff Hafley and Dolphins hold off late Jets rally in 28-25 victory

Q3

Sanders hits the upright, Cooper goes 60, and the Jets settle at the 1

Jason Sanders, the longtime Dolphins kicker in his first season with the Jets, hit the right upright from 40 on New York’s first drive of the half. Omar Cooper Jr.’s 60-yard catch on third-and-7 kept the next drive alive, and he finished it with a 3-yard touchdown. The Jets later reached the Miami 1 but settled for Sanders’s 33-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter after Smith was sacked on third down.

Cooper
5 catches · 115 yds · 1 TD
Cooper TD drive
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:26
After Cooper’s TD
Dolphins 21, Jets 14

AP via ESPN — Malik Willis sparks first win for Jeff Hafley and Dolphins hold off late Jets rally in 28-25 victory

Q4

Douglas from 63, a late Jets rally, and Willis on fourth-and-1

Willis side-armed a short throw to Douglas, who tiptoed the sideline and went 63 yards for a 28-17 lead with 4:44 left. Isaiah Davis turned a fourth-and-4 throw into a 41-yard gain, Smith found Taylor from 12, and a 2-point throw to Taylor made it 28-25 with 3:24 left. At the two-minute warning, on fourth-and-1 at the Jets 49, Hafley asked his linemen and kept the offense on the field, and Willis pushed for 2 yards.

Final
Dolphins 28, Jets 25
Willis
14 of 21 · 208 yds · 2 TD · 8 carries · 37 yds · 1 TD
Smith
23 of 30 · 287 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
Gordon
25 carries · 103 yds · 1 TD
Braelon Allen
17 carries · 104 yds

AP via ESPN — Malik Willis sparks first win for Jeff Hafley and Dolphins hold off late Jets rally in 28-25 victory

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (the one Dolphins moneyline row was voided on 2026-10-21). Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W7_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-25/prop-reconciliation-w07.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The AP says penalties negated New York’s first two 2-point tries after Taylor’s late touchdown; ESPN’s play-by-play logs one nullified try. This recap gives no count.
  • The opening-possession streak and Sanders’s background come from the AP alone.
  • Miami’s Jaylen Wright (quadriceps) left in the fourth quarter, Dante Trader Jr. (shoulder) was hurt in the third and returned, and the Jets’ T’Vondre Sweat (knee) left late in the second, per the AP and the play-by-play; severity was not known when this was published.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-25. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Malik Willis sparks first win for Jeff Hafley and Dolphins hold off late Jets rally in 28-25 victory

The league’s worst passing offense visits a good pass defense, and both Jets running backs are hurt

0-5 against 2-4, and the two things that decide it pull in opposite directions. Miami cannot throw — last in the league in passing yards, by a distance — against a Jets secondary that is the stingiest on this part of the slate. But New York has to run to score, and it has lost both of its top two running backs while Miami’s run defense is quietly one of the better units in football by efficiency. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate.

Jets run offense · Dolphins run defense

Braelon Allen alone against Miami’s one good unit

Close to even

New York’s passing attack is not a credible fallback, so the ground game is the plan — and Breece Hall and Kene Nwangwu both missed Wednesday, leaving Braelon Allen to carry it. Allen has been good when asked: a career-high 116 yards and a touchdown against Cleveland in Week 5, then 78 at 4.6 a carry in the Week 6 loss at New England. Miami is fourth in the league in expected points allowed per rush, which is the number that matters here — its raw 110.6 rushing yards a game allowed is almost exactly league average, and the gap between those two figures is the whole point: Miami gives up yards but very few of them cheaply. For an 0-5 team this is the one unit that has held up.

Miami run defense
4th in the league in expected points allowed per rush (−0.18) — SI, 2026-10-22 · 110.6 rush yards a game, essentially the league average of 110.0 — Pro-Football-Reference, 2026-10-21
Both Jets backs down
RB Breece Hall and RB Kene Nwangwu DNP Wednesday — NFL.com Week 7
Braelon Allen
Career-high 116 yards and a TD vs Cleveland in Week 5 · 78 yards at 4.6 a carry in the Week 6 loss at New England

Source: SI — The biggest question for every NFL game in Week 7 (2026-10-22)

Dolphins pass offense · Jets coverage

Last in the league through the air, against the best pass defense on this part of the slate

Edge: Jets

This is why Miami is 0-5. It is last in the league in passing yards with two touchdowns against four interceptions — 89 yards behind the thirty-first team and roughly half the leader’s total, in five games — and it has scored fourteen points a game. New York allows 185.0 passing yards a game, the lowest figure of any team we reviewed this week, and 20.3 points. The Jets’ weakness is the run, at 123.0 rushing yards a game allowed, and Miami’s offense is not built to exploit it. Worth stating plainly about Miami’s 0-5: it comes off a bye with the cleanest injury report of any team on the slate, so this is an execution problem, not an availability one.

Miami passing offense
849 yards, last in the league, 2 TD against 4 INT — NFL.com, 2026-10-22 (five games) · 70 points in 5 games (14.0)
New York pass defense
185.0 pass yards a game allowed — lowest of any team reviewed this week · 20.3 points a game (9th)
Where New York is soft
123.0 rush yards a game allowed — not something Miami’s offense is built to attack

Source: Pro-Football-Reference — 2026 opponent stats (2026-10-21)

Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture

Miami is healthy and rested; New York is down its backfield

Close to even

Geno Smith is not on the Week 7 report. Malik Willis was a full participant on Wednesday and his starting status has been settled since he signed in March 2026; the gate passes on both sides. New York’s DNPs: Hall, Nwangwu, Francisco Mauigoa and Joseph Ossai, with Will McDonald IV, Adonai Mitchell, Dylan Parham and T’Vondre Sweat limited. Miami’s is the cleanest report on the slate — one DNP, cornerback Reese Taylor, with six limited and five full including Willis. One item to treat carefully: an undated report describes an undisclosed minor injury to Willis which the coach played down, and it is consistent with his practicing in full, but neither the injury nor the quote carries a date we could verify.

New York DNP
RB Breece Hall · RB Kene Nwangwu · LB Francisco Mauigoa · DE Joseph Ossai
Miami DNP
CB Reese Taylor only · QB Malik Willis full
Games played
Miami has played 5 (Week 6 bye), New York 6

Source: NFL.com — official Week 7 2026 injury report

What this read does not know

  • Breece Hall’s injury nature and designation are not established. One source says only that he is injured; the league report shows a DNP with no description. Whether he plays changes the first section of this page completely.
  • The reported minor injury to Malik Willis is undisclosed at source, and the report carries no date. We note it rather than build on it.
  • Miami’s "last in passing yards" is our own ordering of raw season totals, not a published rank — NFL.com’s team tables carry no rank column. Because Miami has played a game fewer than most teams, its per-game rank could differ slightly, though not materially given the size of the gap.
  • No Thursday report and no game-status designations for either club; the league report’s description column renders blank.
  • We could not verify the Miami head coach’s name beyond a single undated reference, so no coach is named on this page.

Reporting verified 2026-10-22. Further sources: SI — The biggest question for every NFL game in Week 7 (2026-10-22) · NFL.com — official Week 7 2026 injury report · Pro-Football-Reference — 2026 opponent stats (2026-10-21) · Pro-Football-Reference — 2026 season index, records (2026-10-21) · NFL.com — 2026 team offense passing · WTOP — Malik Willis introduced as the Dolphins’ presumptive starting quarterback (March 2026) · CBS Sports — 2026 standings (2026-10-22)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 7 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 25
AWAY MIA -4.3
vs NYJ -4.5
HOME NYJ -2.7
Fair (books) · NYJ 65% home win prob
Kalshi · NYJ — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 East Rutherford, NJ PASS — no position

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Dolphins

35%

fair value (books)

Jets

65%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

40%

Madden 27

60%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Dolphins at Jets How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Dolphins at JetsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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    Dolphins at Jets Kalshi spread ladder for Week 7: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Dolphins–Jets spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Dolphins vs Jets power ratings (Week 7) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Miami Dolphins-4.330thBelow Avg
    New York Jets-2.727thBelow Avg

    Dolphins and Jets season outlook

    MIANYJ
    Average wins5.06.3
    Make playoffs3%10%
    Win division1%3%
    Win Super Bowl0.1%0.5%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Dolphins vs Jets — player pages

    All players →

    Breece Hall

    RB

    Garrett Wilson

    WR

    Malik Willis

    QB

    Kenyon Sadiq

    TE

    Omar Cooper Jr.

    WR

    Geno Smith

    QB

    Malik Washington

    WR

    Braelon Allen

    RB

    Greg Dulcich

    TE

    Caleb Douglas

    Ollie Gordon II

    Chris Bell

    Adonai Mitchell

    Mason Taylor

    Jaylen Wright

    Kevin Coleman Jr.

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: AFC East math: Dolphins at Jets

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 — the graded call is above.

    Miami Dolphins at New York Jets is a AFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 12. The model has the Jets by 4.5 (63%) off a -2.7 to -4.3 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jets offense grades -1.4 (28th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -3.9 (31st) — 2.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the Jets defense (-2.0, 25th), a 1.3-point gap.

    On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 12, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC East race.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 6.3 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Dolphins at 5.0 (favored in 2) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Dolphins'. It is the softest spot on the Jets' entire schedule.

    Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 28-20 in the Dolphins' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Dolphins won 34-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 63% on the Jets here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJ, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the AFC East hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Dolphins vs Jets on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJ
    Market-implied (Jets)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Jets)
    65%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 65% for the Jets. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Dolphins vs Jets trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueJetsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig66% 66cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Dolphins vs Jets

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    Dolphins vs Jets — frequently asked

    Who won Dolphins vs Jets in Week 7?

    Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 — final, played Sunday, October 25, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jets by 4.5 (65% to win), and the Dolphins won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Dolphins vs Jets before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Jets by 4.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Dolphins. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJ market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    How much does a AFC East result matter here?

    Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 12. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Jets by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.

    How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Jets?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 63c or below, or the Dolphins at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Jets host the Dolphins?

    Miami Dolphins visit the New York Jets on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.

    What does the model project for the Jets and Dolphins this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.3 wins (favored in 3) and the Dolphins at 5.0 (favored in 2). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Dolphins', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Dolphins vs Jets?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJ, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Dolphins vs Jets on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJ has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Jets?

    59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Jets at 63% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Jets moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 66% against a market price implying 65%, an edge of +0.5 points. Model 65% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 65% on NYJ — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 12. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Dolphins–Jets, Week 12 →

    Next up for each team

    Dolphins: Week 8 vs PatriotsModel line →Jets: Week 8 vs RaidersModel line →

    More Week 7 matchups

    Patriots at BearsModel: Bears −2.5Steelers at SaintsModel: Steelers −2.549ers at FalconsModel: 49ers −2Bengals at RavensModel: Bengals −1.5Buccaneers at PanthersModel: Panthers −3Giants at TexansModel: Texans −5Colts at VikingsModel: Vikings −4Browns at TitansModel: Browns −1Broncos at CardinalsModel: Broncos −2.5Packers at LionsModel: Lions −1.5Rams at RaidersModel: Rams −2.5Chiefs at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −5Cowboys at EaglesModel: Cowboys −1

    Full Week 7 board →Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →

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