Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Jets by 1.5 in Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets, NFL Week 7 2026 — 54% to win, and a AFC East game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 49c or below (or Dolphins at 41c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIA
-3.0
NYJ
-4.0
Dolphins
46%
model win prob
Jets
54%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 49c or below, or the Dolphins at 41c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
AFC East math: Dolphins at Jets
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets is a AFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 12. The model has the Jets by 1.5 (54%) off a -4.0 to -3.0 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Jets grade -3.1 on offense (30th of 32) and -2.2 on defense (27th); the Dolphins -1.3 (25th) and -2.5 (28th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field, though special teams does tilt to the Jets (+1.3, 1st).
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 12, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC East race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.5 projected wins for the Jets against 6.7 for the Dolphins, favored in 4 and 4 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Dolphins'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 28-20 in the Dolphins' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Dolphins won 34-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Jets at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJ is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 54% / 46% — the tradable window is narrow: Jets at 49c or below, Dolphins at 41c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs Jets — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Jets in Week 7?
Our power-rating model favors the Jets by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Dolphins. The Jets rate 31st of 32 (-4.0) and the Dolphins 28th (-3.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 12. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Jets by 1.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Jets?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25MIANYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 49c or below, or the Dolphins at 41c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the New York Jets on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.5 wins (favored in 4) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 4). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Jets?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Jets at 54% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 12. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Dolphins–Jets, Week 12 →
More Week 7 matchups
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