Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Buccaneers by 4.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL Week 3 2026 — 64% to win, and the 56th meeting between these two. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Buccaneers at 59c or below (or Vikings at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIN
-2.6
TB
-0.6
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Vikings
36%
model win prob
Buccaneers
64%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
44%
Madden 27
56%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Buccaneers at 59c or below, or the Vikings at 31c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Vikings at Buccaneers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Vikings–Buccaneers, 56 games in
These two have played 56 times going back through the record we hold, and the modern-era series is 7-2 to the Buccaneers since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: -0.6 against -2.6, Buccaneers by 4.5, 64% to win.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Buccaneers grade -1.1 on that side of the ball (20th of 32) against a Vikings offense at -2.5 (28th) — 1.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (+0.4, 18th) meets the Vikings defense (-0.5, 15th), a 0.9-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Buccaneers at 8.3 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Vikings at 7.2 (favored in 4) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Buccaneers' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Vikings'. It is the softest spot on the Buccaneers' entire schedule.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Buccaneers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Buccaneers 64%, Vikings 36%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Buccaneers contracts a buy at 59c or below and Vikings contracts a buy at 31c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Vikings vs Buccaneers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB
- Market-implied (Buccaneers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Buccaneers)
- 64%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Buccaneers at 59c or below, or the Vikings at 31c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Vikings vs Buccaneers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Buccaneers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Vikings vs Buccaneers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Vikings vs Buccaneers in Week 3?
Our power-rating model picks the Buccaneers by 4.5 points, a 64% win probability over the Vikings, for a projected score of Buccaneers 24, Vikings 20 on a ratings-implied 43.6-point total. The Buccaneers rate 18th of 32 (-0.6) and the Vikings 27th (-2.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the all-time record between the Vikings and Buccaneers?
Our records hold 56 meetings. Since 2002 the regular-season series is 7-2 for the Buccaneers over 9 games. The model does not use series history — it prices the 2026 ratings only.
How do you take a position on Vikings vs Buccaneers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Buccaneers at 59c or below, or the Vikings at 31c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Buccaneers host the Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.
What does the model project for the Buccaneers and Vikings this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Buccaneers at 8.3 wins (favored in 7) and the Vikings at 7.2 (favored in 4). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Buccaneers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Vikings', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Vikings vs Buccaneers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Buccaneers at 59c or below or the Vikings at 31c or below, off a 4.5-point line.
Can you trade Vikings vs Buccaneers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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