Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Vikings

43%

model win prob

Buccaneers

57%

model win prob

Model line

Buccaneers −2.5

Kalshi (Buccaneers)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Buccaneers — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Minnesota Vikings-0.216thAverage

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-0.317thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 3, the Minnesota Vikings travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Buccaneers 17th of 32 (Average tier, -0.3) and the Vikings 16th (Average tier, -0.2). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Buccaneers by 2.5 — a 57% win probability for the Buccaneers.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 57% (Buccaneers) / 43% (Vikings) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Vikings vs Buccaneers — frequently asked

Who is favored in Vikings vs Buccaneers in Week 3?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Buccaneers by 2.5 points and gives them a 57% win probability over the Vikings. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Vikings vs Buccaneers?

Home win probability 57% (Buccaneers), away 43% (Vikings). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.1 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Buccaneers rate 17th of 32 (Average tier), the Vikings 16th (Average tier).

Can you trade Vikings vs Buccaneers on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.