Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Buccaneers by 4.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL Week 3 2026 — 64% to win, and the 56th meeting between these two. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Buccaneers at 59c or below (or Vikings at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIN
-2.6
TB
-0.5
Vikings
36%
model win prob
Buccaneers
64%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTBhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Buccaneers at 59c or below, or the Vikings at 31c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Vikings–Buccaneers, 56 games in
These two have played 56 times going back through the record we hold, and the modern-era series is 7-2 to the Buccaneers since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: -0.5 against -2.6, Buccaneers by 4.5, 64% to win.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Buccaneers grade -1.1 on that side of the ball (20th of 32) against a Vikings offense at -2.5 (29th) — 1.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (+0.5, 18th) meets the Vikings defense (-0.5, 16th), a 1.0-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Buccaneers at 8.3 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Vikings at 7.1 (favored in 4) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Buccaneers' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Vikings'. It is the softest spot on the Buccaneers' entire schedule.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Buccaneers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Buccaneers 64%, Vikings 36%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Buccaneers contracts a buy at 59c or below and Vikings contracts a buy at 31c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Vikings vs Buccaneers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Vikings vs Buccaneers in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Buccaneers by 4.5 points, a 64% win probability over the Vikings. The Buccaneers rate 18th of 32 (-0.5) and the Vikings 27th (-2.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the all-time record between the Vikings and Buccaneers?
Our records hold 56 meetings. Since 2002 the regular-season series is 7-2 for the Buccaneers over 9 games. The model does not use series history — it prices the 2026 ratings only.
How do you take a position on Vikings vs Buccaneers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27MINTB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Buccaneers at 59c or below, or the Vikings at 31c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Buccaneers host the Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.
What does the model project for the Buccaneers and Vikings this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Buccaneers at 8.3 wins (favored in 7) and the Vikings at 7.1 (favored in 4). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Buccaneers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Vikings', by model win probability.
Get the daily NFL prediction-market read — free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 3 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.