Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 5.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills, NFL Week 8 2026 — 65% to win, and a 7-day rest edge for the Bills, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01BALBUF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bills at 60c or below (or Ravens at 30c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BAL
+1.3
BUF
+4.2
Ravens
35%
model win prob
Bills
65%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV01BALBUFhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bills at 60c or below, or the Ravens at 30c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Ravens at Bills
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Bills come in with 7 more days off than the other side — 14 days' rest for the Bills against 7 days' rest for the Ravens. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Bills by 5.5 (65%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 7-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Ravens come in off the Bengals, the Bills off the Raiders. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.0 (2nd of 32) against a Ravens defense at -0.3 (12th) — 4.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Ravens offense (+1.2, 11th) meets the Bills defense (-0.2, 11th), a 1.4-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.3 projected wins for the Bills against 9.3 for the Ravens, favored in 13 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 11th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Ravens'. Nothing on the Ravens' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-4 in the Ravens' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Bills won 41-40 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Bills are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 65% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01BALBUF, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Bills 65%, Ravens 35%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Bills contracts a buy at 60c or below and Ravens contracts a buy at 30c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Bills — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Bills in Week 8?
Our power-rating model favors the Bills by 5.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Ravens. The Bills rate 4th of 32 (+4.2) and the Ravens 12th (+1.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01BALBUF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Bills have 7 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 5.5-point line or the 65% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Bills?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV01BALBUF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bills at 60c or below, or the Ravens at 30c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bills host the Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
What does the model project for the Bills and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bills at 10.3 wins (favored in 13) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 65% on a team like the Bills?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Bills at 65% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.