Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Raiders by 0 in Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 16 2026 — 50% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.4 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27TENLV yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Raiders at 45c or below (or Titans at 45c or below) is where the model would take a position.
TEN
-3.4
LV
-5.8
Titans
50%
model win prob
Raiders
50%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27TENLVhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Raiders at 45c or below, or the Titans at 45c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Titans–Raiders is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Titans rate -3.4 (29th of 32) against -5.8 for the Raiders (32nd) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 2.4-point gap between them, so the model lands at 50% for the Raiders anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 2nd-closest of the 16 games in Week 16, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Titans at 6.8 (favored in 3) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 14th-hardest on the Titans'. It is the softest spot on the Raiders' entire schedule.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Titans grade -1.4 on that side of the ball (21st of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.1 (32nd) — 2.7 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.5, 28th) meets the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th), a 0.6-point gap.
On the calendar, the Titans are on 7 days and the Raiders are on 7 days. The Raiders are 3 games into a home stand. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Recent history, for context only: 13 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-6 in the Raiders' favour, plus 4 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Raiders won 20-10 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Raiders at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC27TENLV is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 50% / 50% — the tradable window is narrow: Raiders at 45c or below, Titans at 45c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Titans vs Raiders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Titans vs Raiders in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Raiders by 0 points, a 50% win probability over the Titans. The Raiders rate 32nd of 32 (-5.8) and the Titans 29th (-3.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27TENLV yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Raiders (-5.8, 32nd) and Titans (-3.4, 29th) are only 2.4 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 50%/50%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Titans vs Raiders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27TENLV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Raiders at 45c or below, or the Titans at 45c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Raiders host the Titans?
Tennessee Titans visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
What does the model project for the Raiders and Titans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1) and the Titans at 6.8 (favored in 3). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 14th-hardest on the Titans', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 50% on a team like the Raiders?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Raiders at 50% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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