The 7 Oracles
Original prediction market analysis — read, listen, or watch.
Deep-dive analysis across politics, sports, crypto, and event markets. Powered by PredictionMarketsPicks, analysis by The 7 Oracles.
Written Analysis
Jun 26, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Friday: The 7 Oracles' Best Plays for the June 26 Slate
Groups G, H and I close the group stage, and the table has already sorted the board: France and Norway are both through…
Jun 25, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Thursday: The 7 Oracles' Best Plays for the June 25 Slate
Groups D, E and F close the group stage, and three sides are already through, so half the board is dead chalk and the ot…
Jun 24, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
PFL Prediction Markets: How to Trade MMA on Kalshi & Polymarket
How to trade PFL and MMA on prediction markets. Read Kalshi and Polymarket prices for PFL fights, method-of-victory prop…
Jun 24, 2026 · The 7 Oracles
PFL San Diego Odds & Prediction: McKee vs. Isbulaev on the Markets
PFL San Diego prediction and odds for McKee vs. Isbulaev, June 27 at Pechanga Arena. What the Kalshi and Polymarket pric…
Jun 24, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Wednesday: The 7 Oracles' Best Plays for the June 24 Slate
Groups A, B and C close out the group stage on Wednesday. Scotland–Brazil headlines in Miami and Mexico hosts at the Azt…
Jun 23, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Tuesday: The 7 Oracles' Best Plays for the June 23 Slate
Groups K and L play their second round and England vs. Ghana is already a control-of-the-group decider, with both sides…
Jun 22, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Monday: The 7 Oracles' Best Plays for the June 22 Slate
Groups I and J play their second round and two of the four games are already control-of-the-group deciders. Argentina vs…
Jun 21, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Sunday: The 7 Oracles' Best Plays for the June 21 Slate
Groups G and H run their second round, and the pre-tournament chalk is sitting on one point. Spain were held 0-0 by Cape…
Jun 20, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Saturday: The 7 Oracles' Best Plays for the June 20 Slate
Groups E and F run it back. Germany and Ecuador headline as heavy chalk, but the cleanest edge is in Houston — Sweden le…
Jun 19, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Friday: The 7 Oracles' Best Plays for the June 19 Slate
Groups C and D run it back. The USMNT headline Seattle and Brazil rolls in Philly — but the cleanest edge is the table f…
Jun 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
How Kalshi Settles Bitcoin: The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index, 60-Second Averaging, and Edge Cases
Every Kalshi bitcoin contract — 15-minute to yearly — settles the same way: a 60-second average of the CF Benchmarks Bit…
Jun 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Kalshi Bitcoin 15-Minute Markets (KXBTC15M): How They Settle and Where the Edge Is
Kalshi's KXBTC15M opens a fresh up/down bitcoin contract every quarter hour, 24/7. It settles on a 60-second average of…
Jun 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Kalshi Bitcoin Markets by Frequency: 15-Min, Hourly, Daily, Weekly, Monthly — Which to Trade
Kalshi runs bitcoin contracts at six cadences — 15-minute, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly. They all settle o…
Jun 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Thursday: Benny's Best Plays for the June 18 Slate
Groups A and B run it back. Mexico–Son and a 63% Switzerland headline — but the red cards already moved one game: South…
Jun 17, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Wednesday: Benny's Best Plays for the June 17 Slate
Groups K and L open. Ronaldo and Kane headline — but the value's in the close ones: a true Ghana–Panama three-way and th…
Jun 16, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Is Polymarket Legal in the US? 2026 Rules + Legal Alternatives
No — US residents are blocked from Polymarket under the 2022 CFTC settlement, and that's still true in 2026. Here's why,…
Jun 16, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Tuesday: Benny's Best Plays for the June 16 Slate
Groups I and J open — star-striker day. The cleanest positions on a chalk-heavy Tuesday are Mbappé, Haaland and an Argen…
Jun 14, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Ivory Coast vs. Ecuador: A Coin Flip Priced as a Favorite
Ecuador open as the market favorite over Ivory Coast in Philadelphia, but the model reads a near three-way coin flip, fa…
Jun 14, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Monday: Benny's Best Plays for the June 15 Slate
FULL-TIME: Spain held 0-0 by Cape Verde — the tournament's biggest shock blows up the demolition call and cracks Group H…
Jun 13, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Australia vs. Turkey: A Fragile Favorite and a Live Draw
Turkey open as the market favorite over Australia in Vancouver — but the model fades the price to 42%, likes the draw, a…
Jun 13, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Saturday: Benny's Best Plays for the June 13 Slate
Three games, three positions. Embolo to score against Qatar, both teams to score in Brazil–Morocco, and the under in a S…
Jun 13, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup Sunday: Benny's Best Plays for the June 14 Slate
Five games, five positions. Sunday's board overprices favorites in three coin-flips — Turkey, Sweden, Ecuador — and that…
Jun 9, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Mexico vs. South Africa: The Market Read on the World Cup Opener
Mexico open the 2026 World Cup as heavy home favorites (74%) over South Africa — Raúl Jiménez leads the line with Giméne…
Jun 8, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Brazil vs. Morocco: Clear Favorites, a Live Underdog, a BTTS Edge
Ancelotti's Brazil open the World Cup as clear favorites (54%) over 2022 semifinalist Morocco — but the model's edge sit…
Jun 8, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Best-Ever Squad Meets a Farewell Tour
Canada open at home in Toronto as the model's clear favorite (53%) over Edin Dzeko's Bosnia-Herzegovina, with goals expe…
Jun 8, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
South Korea vs. Czechia: Why the Market Says This One Stays Low
South Korea edge a stubborn Czechia in the model (43%), but the high draw and the slate's lowest goal total point one wa…
Jun 8, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
USA vs. Paraguay: Pulisic, a Home Crowd, and the Coach Nobody Wanted
The USA open their home World Cup in Los Angeles as clear favorites (65%) over Paraguay. Why the model expects goals — a…
Jun 5, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Which 7 Oracles Tools Are Actually Winning? The Full Graded Scoreboard
We grade all six 7 Oracles tools in public — win %, P/L, and Brier score. Bitcoin Edge leads at 79.7% (0.089 Brier); Sil…
Jun 4, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
KL Divergence: How to Tell a Real Mispricing From a Coincidence
A 10-cent gap at 50¢ is not the same trade as a 10-cent gap at 90¢. KL divergence scores how far two prices actually dis…
Jun 4, 2026 · Nando
What We're Buying This Week: Sarah Jessica Parker, Scary Movie, and More
This week's picks from The 7 Oracles: the obscure Kalshi market on what Sarah Jessica Parker says at Northwestern's comm…
Jun 2, 2026 · The 7 Oracles
The 7 Oracles Roundtable: Bitcoin Edge Live, World Cup Cash-Outs & NBA Championship Picks
Benny, Nando, Coach Gene, and Dane around one table for an hour: a live demo of the Bitcoin Edge tool, the Myles Garrett…
May 30, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
KC's Mahomes-Out-A-Few-Weeks Math: Kalshi Has Them at 10.5-Win Pricing
Patrick Mahomes is likely out the first stretch of 2026. Our model has the half-season backup costing KC about a game an…
May 29, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Ancelotti's Brazil Isn't the Brazil the Market Is Pricing
Carlo Ancelotti rebuilt Brazil around defensive solidity, Rodrygo's ACL gutted the attack, and Neymar made the cut on ex…
May 28, 2026 · Gene & CJ
Fade the Field Ep. 10: Knicks 30¢, Spurs 24¢, Dybantsa 80¢ — The Real Kalshi Numbers
Round 2 of the 2026 NBA Playoffs is in the books and the live Kalshi tote board tells a different story than Twitter. Kn…
May 26, 2026 · Nando
Trump 2028? The Real Trump on the Ballot Might Be Don Jr. — A 5¢ Kalshi Thesis
Donald Trump Jr. sits at 5¢ to be the 2028 Republican nominee on Kalshi while J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio carry the marke…
May 25, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Five QBs Kalshi Is Pricing at Literal Pennies for 2026 NFL MVP
Sam Darnold at 3¢. Trevor Lawrence at 3¢. Drake Maye at 5¢. Stafford at 5¢. Jared Goff at 1¢. Our model says four of the…
May 22, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
How to Trade Bitcoin Edge: Plain English, $25 Bankroll, and the Tool Doing the Math
Bitcoin Edge in 30 seconds — Kalshi prices a yes/no bitcoin contract every hour. IBIT options price the same number a di…
May 20, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Wemby Finals MVP at 40¢ on Kalshi: The Spurs-Clinch Re-Rate Is Already Starting
I called Victor Wembanyama Finals MVP at 37¢ on Kalshi yesterday. Twenty-four hours later the market is at 40¢. If San A…
May 18, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Get Off My Fantasy Football Lawn: The NFL 2026 Schedule Is Breaking Fantasy Football
Dane Martinez on the NFL 2026 schedule: a Wednesday opener, nine international games, a five-day Thanksgiving slate, and…
May 17, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Drake YES at 73¢ on Kalshi: The Triple-Album Repricing Already Happened — Is There Still Edge?
Kalshi has Drake at 73¢ to win Spotify USA Top Artist 2026. Two weeks ago he was 29¢ and Bad Bunny was the 68¢ favorite.…
May 16, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Bitcoin Edge: The 7 Kalshi Settles a Day Worth Trading
Kalshi's KXBTCD market settles a new bitcoin contract every hour, around the clock. Only seven of those settles per week…
May 16, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Kalshi Bitcoin vs Spot vs Options-Implied: Three Bitcoin Probabilities, Three Different Answers
Kalshi KXBTCD, Pyth spot, and IBIT options-implied probability are three pricing channels on the same underlying bitcoin…
May 14, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Marjorie 'Traitor' Greene at 38¢: Dane's Call on Trump's Next Nickname (Kalshi)
Donald Trump has built an entire vocabulary out of nicknames — and Kalshi has a live market on the next one. Dane Martin…
May 14, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Buy the Fear, Skip the Hike: The 2¢ Kalshi Fed Trade Nobody's Watching
$25 into $100 in 4 weeks. Kalshi's June FOMC Hike 25bps contract sits at 2¢ while CPI runs hot, payrolls grind, WTI hits…
May 13, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
WTI Contract Rollover Explained — Why Kalshi Oil Markets Pause Three Days a Month
Every month, Kalshi rolls its WTI settlement contract two days before CME's Last Trading Day. Here's the mechanic, the b…
May 12, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
The Live Longshot Scanner: How We Hunt Mispriced Longshots the Crowd Wrote Off
Most longshot contracts are dusty Beanie Babies. A few are the real ones. Here's how the Live Longshot Scanner tells the…
May 12, 2026 · Dane Martinez
The Hantavirus Trade: Kalshi's Pandemic Contract at 15¢ Is a Media-Frenzy Buy
Kalshi has 'Pandemic in 2026' at 15¢ YES while the hantavirus story builds — cruise-ship cluster, CDC Level 3, nine stat…
May 9, 2026 · Coach Gene Clemons
Breaking Down the WNBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Lauren Betts, Azzi Fudd and More
Four rookies have a real path to WNBA ROY honors. Gene reads the Kalshi orderbook on Fudd, Miles, Betts, and Flau'jae Jo…
May 7, 2026 · Nando
Spencer Pratt for LA Mayor: Polls vs. Kalshi's Read
UCLA's poll has Spencer Pratt 2nd for LA mayor; Kalshi's $3M market has him 3rd at 18%. Where polls and prediction marke…
May 6, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Gold Is Going Higher — and the Options Market Already Knows It
Oil is cratering today. The options market is pricing gold above $4,853 at 26–33% probability. Kalshi has it at 2–6 cent…
May 6, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Michael Jackson 'No' at 40¢ on Kalshi: A 2.5x Spotify Global #1 Trade for May
Kalshi has Michael Jackson at 60¢ to land a #1 song on Spotify Global in May. The biopic bump put Billie Jean at #9 and…
May 3, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Will Ice Spice Attend the 2026 Met Gala? Kalshi & Polymarket Predictions
Ice Spice is sitting at roughly 10% on Kalshi's Met Gala attendance market — and we think that's a steal. Here's why the…
May 1, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Did Prediction Markets Predict the 2024 Election? A State-by-State Accuracy Audit
Polymarket had Trump at 61% the night before. Polls had a coin flip. Two years later, here's the honest state-by-state a…
Apr 30, 2026 · Nando
Musk vs. OpenAI at 52¢: Why I'm Taking YES
I worked at CourtTV for five years. Trials almost never happen. This one is. And the Kalshi market is already giving us…
Apr 30, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Silver Edge: How Options-Implied Probability Reveals Mispricings on Kalshi's Weekly Silver Market
Every Friday at 5pm EDT, Kalshi settles weekly silver on a deterministic XAG/USD spot oracle. SLV options price the same…
Apr 29, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Todd Blanche at 55¢ Is the Smart Pick for Trump's Next AG on Kalshi
Pam Bondi is out. Todd Blanche is sitting in the chair as acting AG and recent reporting calls it 'his job to lose.' Kal…
Apr 28, 2026 · Gene & CJ
Fade the Field Ep. 7: OROY Value, the 2027 #1 Pick Trade & Why LSU Is the CFB Buy
Four prediction markets, one episode. Jeremiah Love at 27¢ for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Jeremiah Smith at 9¢ for th…
Apr 28, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
France Takes the Throne: How the Market Just Made Les Bleus the 2026 World Cup Favorite
France has overtaken Spain as the World Cup 2026 favorite on prediction markets, with nearly $3M in single-day Polymarke…
Apr 28, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Oil Hit $100 Today. The UAE Story Is Noise. Here's the Trade.
WTI crude crossed $100 this morning for the first time since April 13th. Kalshi is pricing only a 39% chance it holds th…
Apr 27, 2026 · Dane Martinez
2026 NFL OROY Sleepers: Fading Mendoza & Love, Buying Tate (17%) and Price (12%)
Dane Martinez breaks down the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year market. Mendoza to Raiders and Love to Cardinals are…
Apr 25, 2026 · Nando
WHCD 2026: A 7¢ Kalshi Play With $134 Upside If Trump Says 'Epstein'
Trump speaks at the White House Correspondents' Dinner tonight for the first time as president. Here's the Kalshi 'What…
Apr 25, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
WHCD 2026: A Hardcore Portfolio Read on the Kalshi 'What Will Trump Say' Market — With Kelly Sizing
47 outcomes. $871k of volume. One prepared speech he's never given before. Here's the full edge map on Kalshi's KXTRUMPM…
Apr 24, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Spurs at 12% to Win the NBA Championship: Dane’s Play of the Day
The Spurs are trading at 12¢ on Kalshi to win the 2026 NBA Championship. Dane Martinez breaks down why that’s the best v…
Apr 24, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
8 Teams, 72 Open Kalshi Markets: The Day 2 NFL Draft Trade Nobody's Making Yet
Eight franchises skipped Round 1 entirely. Their first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft happens Friday night — and Kalshi's po…
Apr 23, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
2026 NFL Draft — Oracle Reads: Live Kalshi Market Snapshot (Draft Night)
Live Kalshi market snapshot from draft night. Mendoza is a lock at 99¢ ($1.38M volume). Bain Jr. at 98¢, Styles at 93¢,…
Apr 23, 2026 · Gene
Caleb Banks at 27¢: Why Kalshi Is Sleeping on a 1st-Round DT
Late-round DT-needy teams, tape that holds up, and an orderbook that already has sharp money stacked in the 28–30¢ range…
Apr 23, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
2026 NFL Draft: The Market Moved All Day — Here Are the 10 Biggest Kalshi Swings Before Kickoff
We pulled the Kalshi orderbook at 10:45am ET and again at 3pm. Ten market leaders changed. Carnell Tate rocketed +39¢ to…
Apr 22, 2026 · Dane Martinez
2026 NFL Draft: Jeremiyah Love to the Titans at #4 — One of the Best Edges on the Board
Kalshi 36%. DraftKings -105 (in from -120). FanDuel +115. Dane Martinez breaks down why Jeremiyah Love at #4 to the Tita…
Apr 21, 2026 · Nando
American Idol Season 24: Why a 1¢ longshot has captured our attention
Analysis of American Idol Season 24 prediction markets reveals why one underdog contestant at 1¢ odds is worth watching…
Apr 20, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
2026 NFL Draft Market Movement: Love, Tyson, Reese & the Bailey Lotto Ticket
Four live market moves from the 2026 NFL Draft board — Jordan Love climbing to #3, Jordyn Tyson pricing in as WR2, Arvel…
Apr 20, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Drake's ICEMAN: Central Cee YES at 67¢ Is the Cleanest 1.4x on the Board
Kalshi has Central Cee at ~67¢ to appear on Drake's ICEMAN. Between 'Which One,' the Iceman livestream, and a decade of…
Apr 20, 2026 · Nando
How 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' Can Get 90+ on Rotten Tomatoes
Analyzing prediction markets for The Mandalorian and Grogu's Rotten Tomatoes score. Why the film could hit 90+ despite 5…
Apr 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Bayesian Reasoning in Prediction Markets: How Sharp Traders Update Their Beliefs
Updated April 2026. Sharp prediction-market traders don't flip their views on every news headline. They update with Baye…
Apr 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Kalshi vs Polymarket Arbitrage: Find Price Gaps in 2026
Updated April 2026. When Kalshi and Polymarket price the same event differently, one of them is wrong. Here's how to use…
Apr 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
How Kalshi Combos Work: Mechanics, Probability, and When to Use Them
Updated April 2026. A clear breakdown of Kalshi combo mechanics — how combined probability is calculated, what the vig l…
Apr 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
How Prediction Markets Work: A Complete Guide for Traders (2026)
Prediction markets are event derivatives that pay $1 if your outcome hits and $0 if it does not. Here is how the mechani…
Apr 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Is Better in 2026?
A direct, 2026-current comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket — regulatory status, fees, market depth, US access, sports co…
Apr 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
World Cup 2026 Prediction Markets Guide: Where and How to Trade the Tournament
Full prediction-market guide to the 2026 FIFA World Cup: where to trade, what markets exist, Kalshi vs Polymarket covera…
Apr 12, 2026 · Dane
What (and Who) We're Buying This Week
This week's top prediction market picks: Cirie for Survivor, Tom Steyer for California Governor, and more trading opport…
Apr 7, 2026 · Dane Martinez
How We're Trading Trump's Cabinet Chaos on Kalshi and Other Prediction Markets
We're on YES at around 61% that Trump makes another cabinet change this month on Kalshi — targeting 1.5–1.6x. Noem and B…
Apr 7, 2026 · Coach Gene
Fade the Field Ep. 4: NCAA Championship, WNBA #1 Pick, NBA ROY & All-Pro Breakdown
Coach Gene breaks down Michigan's NCAA title run, the WNBA #1 pick debate between Fudd and Fam, the Flagg vs. Knueppel N…
Apr 5, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Are Gas Prices Headed for a Massive Spike? Prediction Market Breakdown
Dane Martinez dives into the energy landscape — WTI crude past $110, geopolitical supply risks, and where the smart mone…
Apr 3, 2026 · The 7 Oracles
Next Attorney General: Lee Zeldin at 60¢ — Bayesian Edge Analysis
Zeldin moved from 3% to 68% in 48 hours. Our Bayesian framework says Kalshi's 60¢ is still underpriced — fair value is 7…
Apr 2, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Bondi Out as AG: Polymarket 77%, Kalshi 48-56% — The Cross-Platform Spread
Polymarket: 77% next to leave cabinet. Kalshi: 48-56%. The same event, 20+ points apart. Dane Martinez breaks down the B…
Apr 1, 2026 · Gene Clemons
Oklahoma vs Colorado: Prediction Market Play of the Day
Gene Clemons breaks down the Oklahoma vs Colorado prediction market matchup. Full video analysis on where the value sits…
Apr 1, 2026 · The 7 Oracles
An Outerspace Edge?
Trump speaks on Iran tonight. NASA launches Artemis II at 6:24 PM ET. One prediction market angle nobody is pricing: wha…
Mar 31, 2026 · Dane Martinez
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce Wedding Location: Rhode Island at 47% Is the Play
Rhode Island trades at 47% (1.97x payout) on Kalshi for the Swift-Kelce wedding location. Dane Martinez breaks down why…
Mar 31, 2026 · The 7 Oracles
Polymarket Whale Playbooks: How 3 Wallets Run Taleb, Simons, and Soros Strategies
Three wallets. Three Wall Street playbooks. Hans323 turned $92K into $1.11M on weather markets. 0x8dxd turned $313 into…
Mar 30, 2026 · Dane Martinez
2026 NFL Draft: Arvell Reese to the Jets at #2 — Is the Prediction Market Price Right?
Arvell Reese leads the 2026 NFL Draft #2 overall pick market at 63% on Polymarket and -140 on Kalshi. Is the Jets pick a…
Mar 29, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
2026 NCAA Final Four Odds, Matchups & Picks
Championship futures, spreads, and moneylines for the 2026 NCAA Final Four in Indianapolis. Arizona is the favorite — he…
Mar 25, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
DraftKings Prediction Market Picks — Week of March 24, 2026
Benny Ricciardi's DraftKings prediction market picks for the week of March 24, 2026 — EV-positive contracts, Kelly sizin…
Mar 25, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
DraftKings Prediction Markets: The Complete Guide (2026)
Everything you need to know about trading DraftKings prediction markets in 2026 — how they work, where the edge is, and…
Mar 24, 2026 · Coach Gene Clemons (Orunmila)
Hooperpalooza: A Thorough Rundown of Everything Basketball
Houston at 8.55x, Michigan State at 31.2x, and the Lakers 55-win market at 13.3x. Coach Gene Clemons breaks down March M…
Mar 22, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Bayesian Mispricing: The Spec in Plain English
How the Polymarket Mispricing Scanner uses two AI agents, a Bayesian swarm, and Kelly sizing — explained without the mat…
Mar 22, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
I Saw a Twitter Thread About an Options Trader Who Cracked Polymarket — So I Built the Tool
A fired options trader opened Polymarket and immediately saw what nobody else was seeing: the whole market ignores time.…
Mar 22, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
How the Polymarket Mispricing Scanner Works
Every morning a two-agent Bayesian swarm scans Polymarket for mispricings. Here's exactly what it does, why it works, an…
Mar 18, 2026 · The 7 Oracles
The Wild "Sadie Sink/Jean Grey" Roller Coaster
A $16,982 Kalshi market swung from NO to YES at 91% on a Spider-Man trailer drop. Here's the cash-out story and what the…
Mar 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Base Rates: The Starting Point Every Prediction Market Trader Ignores
Before you analyze any specific prediction market, you need a base rate. Here's how historical frequency data anchors yo…
Mar 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Expected Value Is the Only Number That Matters in Prediction Markets
Every prediction market trade is a probability call. If you're not calculating expected value before you click, you're g…
Mar 18, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Kelly Criterion for Prediction Markets: Sizing Calculator + Examples
The Kelly Criterion is the mathematically optimal position sizing formula for any positive-EV trade. Here's how to apply…
Mar 17, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Crypto Prediction Markets: Trading Bitcoin and Ethereum on Kalshi
How to trade crypto prediction markets on Kalshi — Bitcoin price targets, ETH milestones, and how crypto markets compare…
Mar 17, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Macro Prediction Markets: Trading Fed Rates, Inflation, and GDP on Kalshi
How to trade macroeconomic prediction markets on Kalshi — Fed rate decisions, CPI inflation, GDP growth, and recession p…
Mar 17, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
MLB Prediction Markets: Trading Baseball on Kalshi
How to trade MLB prediction markets on Kalshi — World Series odds, division winners, game outcomes, and player awards.
Mar 17, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
NBA Prediction Markets: Kalshi vs Polymarket for Basketball Betting
How to trade NBA prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket — player props, game outcomes, and championship odds compar…
Mar 17, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
NFL Prediction Markets: How to Trade Football on Kalshi
Everything you need to know about NFL prediction markets on Kalshi — Super Bowl odds, game winners, player props, and co…
Mar 17, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Politics Prediction Markets: Kalshi vs Polymarket for Political Events
How to trade political prediction markets — elections, legislation, Fed decisions, and more. Kalshi vs Polymarket compar…
Mar 17, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Soccer Prediction Markets: Trading Football on Kalshi and Polymarket
How to trade soccer prediction markets — World Cup, Champions League, Premier League, and MLS on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Mar 15, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
DraftKings Predictions Review 2026: Honest Pros, Cons, and Best Use Cases
An honest, detailed review of DraftKings Predictions — what works, what does not, how it compares to Kalshi and Polymark…
Mar 15, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
FanDuel Predicts Review 2026: Pros, Cons, and State Availability
An honest review of FanDuel Predicts — how it works, state availability, how it compares to Kalshi and DraftKings, and w…
Mar 15, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
How to Read Prediction Market Prices: A Beginner's Guide to Implied Probability
Prediction market prices explained from scratch — what the cents mean, how to convert them to probabilities, what the vi…
Mar 15, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Kalshi vs Polymarket for Sports Markets: Liquidity, Depth, and Quality Compared
A detailed comparison of sports market quality on Kalshi versus Polymarket — covering liquidity, market depth, available…
Mar 15, 2026 · Benny Ricciardi
Reading Kalshi Like a Bond Desk: Prediction Markets as Derivatives
How a bond trading background reframes prediction markets as mispriced probability instruments. The framework I use to f…
Mar 14, 2026 · The 7 Oracles
Beware the Maxx Crosby "Next Team" Fine Print
The Maxx Crosby market doesn't close until Nov 30, 2026 — which means "no" on Stays with Raiders at $61 for $20 is the s…
Mar 9, 2026 · The 7 Oracles
The SNL Host Market is Underrated Fun
Kalshi's SNL host market has $255K in volume. Sydney Sweeney at 16 cents and Sarah Silverman at 26 cents are the plays —…
Feb 26, 2026 · The 7 Oracles
The Curious Case of Scream 7
The Scream 7 Rotten Tomatoes market collapsed to 48% after production chaos. Meanwhile, Baltimore at 7 cents to win the…
Feb 22, 2026 · Coach Gene Clemons (Orunmila)
How Many "Sinners" at the Oscars?
Sinners got 16 Oscar nominations. "Exactly 5" wins is trading at 12 cents — a 7.5:1 payout with a realistic path through…
Feb 21, 2026 · Chris Manzo
A Pledge To My Gut
Chris Manzo's gut-check column: Wembanyama quadruple double at 8 cents, Alcaraz 3+ Grand Slams at 48 cents, and Leo DiCa…
Feb 20, 2026 · The 7 Oracles
The Talarico Margin, the Alysa Liu Fumble, and the SOTU
A Texas Senate margin play at 17 cents, a missed figure skating gold at 28 cents, and the Barron Trump SOTU market. Thre…
Video
Will the #Rams Win 14 Games This Season? #NFL #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #football
2026-06-25
More Videos
3 episodesWhy the #NFL Denied Brendan Sorsby for Betting!
2026-06-24
Fade the Field Ep. 11
2026-06-23
Christiano Ronaldo after the #soccer world doubted him. #portugal #worldcup2026 #predictionmarkets
2026-06-23
Oracle Gas Edge
Live AAA + GasBuddy + Kalshi cross-read for the KXAAAGASD daily gas market. Predicts tomorrow's AAA print at 11:55 PM ET — 4½ hours before the rest of the market sees the data. Free preview during the 40-day calibration window.
Podcast
Survivor 50: Our Predictions on Who Will Win plus The New Mt. Rushmore
Survivor 50 Chaos: Rise of the Rizgod and the Ultimate Devens Kalshi Hedge
Survivor 50 Recap: We Love Rick Devens (even if Kalshi doesn't)
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is The 7 Oracles?
The 7 Oracles is the analysis brand from PredictionMarketsPicks. It covers prediction market movements, mispricing opportunities, and cross-platform edges through written columns, a podcast, and video breakdowns.
How often is new content published?
New video, podcast, and written analysis is published weekly — sometimes more frequently around major events like elections, championship games, and breaking news markets.
Which prediction markets do you cover?
The 7 Oracles covers Polymarket, Kalshi, DraftKings Prediction Markets, FanDuel, Robinhood, and other legal U.S. and international prediction market platforms.
Is The 7 Oracles free?
Yes. All video and podcast content is free. Written analysis is delivered free via the PredictionMarketsPicks newsletter.