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Home/NFL/Week 2/Packers vs Jets
Gridiron EdgeWeek 2 · 2026

Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17 (OT)

Final. Jets' next game: Jets vs Raiders, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17 (OT) — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 3.5 (62% to win); the Packers won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Packers at 62c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17 (OT)Final / OT

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 3.5 (62% to win). The Packers won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Packers: -5c — we archived the Packers at 67c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 62c on Sep 20. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Green Bay 20, New York 17 (OT): down ten in the fourth with 133 yards of penalties, and Trey Smack ended a six-game skid from 26

The Jets led 17-7 with eleven minutes left and had outplayed Green Bay for most of a rainy afternoon at MetLife. Jordan Love, playing through numbness in his throwing hand after a hit to the elbow, threw a three-yard touchdown to Christian Watson, Smack tied it from 34 with 2:59 left, and after Geno Smith was sacked on consecutive plays to open overtime Smack won it from 26. The Packers were flagged fourteen times for 133 yards and went one for nine on third down; they won anyway.

Packers 20—Jets 17

Final / OT✓ Call hit

The chip grades the stored probability, which had the Jets at 37.8% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 3.5-point Green Bay margin — and Green Bay won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was Green Bay by 2.6, the right team by three points in overtime, and a point inside the market. No position was published: no weekly-edges ledger row exists for 2026_02_GB_NYJ, the lean sat on the same side as the price by less than a point, and the board published the read in points. Nothing outside the ledger was published on this game. The player board went one for one where it could be seen: MarShawn Lloyd under 39.5 rushing yards at 61.5c, STRONG, on a 29.2 projection, and he ran six times for 20. Two passing-yards strikes also sit in the ledger, Love over 249.5 and Smith under 224.5, and both would have lost — Love threw for 145, Smith for 247. Neither counts. pass_yds is suppressed, and the 327.8-yard Love projection behind that over is the kind of number the suppression exists to keep off a page. Ten WATCH rows went six and four and are graded apart.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Packers −6.5 → Packers −3.5
Total
42.5 → 44.5
Moneyline
GB −285 / NYJ +230 → GB −185 / NYJ +154

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 2 to 44.5; the game landed on 37.

How it happened

Q1

Jayden Reed and Zach Bako-Bewele carted off on consecutive plays, and a scoreless quarter

Green Bay lost its receiver and its right tackle on back-to-back plays of the opening drive: Reed with a neck injury — he had movement in his extremities and stayed overnight at a hospital for observation — and Bako-Bewele with a knee that Matt LaFleur said did not look good. Nobody scored in the first quarter; the rain had already started.

After one
Packers 0, Jets 0
Green Bay penalties
14 accepted · 133 yds
Attendance
78,674

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

Love to Lloyd from six, Braelon Allen from five, 7-7 at the half

Love found Lloyd from six yards with 9:35 left in the half for the game’s first points; Allen answered from five three and a half minutes later. The Jets held the ball for 37:40 on the day, converting eight of nineteen third downs while the Packers converted one of nine.

Halftime
Packers 7, Jets 7
Possession
NYJ 37:40 · GB 26:57
Third down
NYJ 8/19 · GB 1/9

ESPN — box score

Q3

Smith to Garrett Wilson from five, then a Sanders field goal for 17-7

Smith hit Wilson from five with 2:30 left in the third for 14-7, and Jason Sanders’ 32-yarder with 11:04 to play made it 17-7. Smith finished 27 of 41 for 247 and the touchdown without an interception, and was sacked four times; Breece Hall ran sixteen times for 29 yards but caught five passes for 63.

After three
Jets 14, Packers 7
Smith
27/41 · 247 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · sacked 4
Hall
16 car · 29 yds · 5 rec · 63 yds

ESPN — box score

Overtime

Watson from three, Smack from 34, and the Jets faced third-and-30 on their overtime possession

Love found Watson from three with 7:58 left for 14-17, and Smack tied it from 34 with 2:59 to go. The Jets won the toss and took the ball; Smith was sacked on consecutive plays and a false start made it third-and-30, and New York punted. Kaleb Johnson ran for 11 and 3, Love hit Chris Brooks for 15 with an unnecessary-roughness flag on Jarvis Brownlee Jr. tacked on, Matthew Golden’s 14-yard catch put it at the 8, and LaFleur sent Smack out to end a six-game losing streak.

Final
Packers 20, Jets 17 (OT)
Love
16/29 · 145 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
Smack
2/2 (34, 26 in OT)

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game — result, pnl_cents and graded_at were null on every Week 2 prop row when this was written, and no game-level row exists. Every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The severity of Reed’s and Bako-Bewele’s injuries was not known when this was published beyond what LaFleur said after the game.
  • ESPN’s summary carried no weather block; the rain is the AP’s description. Attendance is ESPN’s figure.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game or in overtime. Nothing above is a live price.

Reporting verified 2026-09-20. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Trey Smack’s OT kick lifts the Packers past the Jets, ending a 6-game skid · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

Depleted Packers front and no Jacobs meet a 1-0 Jets team that never let Geno Smith get touched.

Green Bay travels to MetLife Stadium on Sunday without Micah Parsons (ACL) and without Josh Jacobs (commissioner's exempt list), and with two more defensive linemen in concussion protocol. The Jets opened 23-10 at Tennessee behind an offensive line that allowed zero sacks and 152 rushing yards, while Green Bay blew a 22-10 lead in a 39-22 loss at Minnesota in which Jordan Love was pressured 25 times. The trench matchups in both directions are the story traders should watch.

Packers pass protection · Jets pass rush

Jordan Morgan and a patched Packers line vs. Will McDonald IV's edge rush

Edge: Jets

Green Bay's line was overwhelmed in Week 1, posting a 9% pass-blocking win rate while Love absorbed 25 pressures — the most of any quarterback in the week. The Week 1 five was Jordan Morgan (LT), Donovan Jennings (LG), Sean Rhyan (C), Jacob Monk (RG) and Zach Bako-Bewele (RT), with Morgan alone allowing five pressures and Bako-Bewele four. Aaron Banks (knee) and Bako-Bewele (knee) were limited in practice both Wednesday and Thursday, so the group may again be improvised. The counterweight is that the Jets' own sack leader, Will McDonald IV, was newly added to Thursday's report with an ankle issue.

Packers Week 1 pass-block win rate
9%
Jordan Love pressures faced, Week 1
25 (most in NFL that week)
Week 1 pressures allowed, Morgan / Bako-Bewele
5 / 4

Source: Last Word on Sports — Packers At Jets Preview

Jets pass protection and run blocking · Packers defensive front

An untouched Geno Smith vs. a Packers defensive line missing four contributors

Edge: Jets

The Jets' line of Olu Fashanu, Dylan Parham, Josh Myers, Joe Tippmann and Armand Membou allowed zero sacks in Week 1, with Smith saying he was untouched, and paved 152 rushing yards. They now face a Green Bay front missing Micah Parsons (ACL), with Javon Hargrave downgraded to a non-participant Thursday (knee/concussion), Warren Brinson (calf) yet to practice in the regular season, and Devonte Wyatt (ankle) limited. Those four combined for 18.5 sacks last season. Green Bay carries only four edge players on its 53-man roster, and both starters — Lukas Van Ness (concussion protocol) and Barryn Sorrell (foot) — were limited.

Jets sacks allowed, Week 1
0
Jets rushing yards, Week 1
152
Packers edge players on 53-man roster
4

Source: The Jet Press — Week 1 Showed the Jets' O-Line Could Take Them Farther

Packers run offense · Jets run defense

MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson vs. a rebuilt Jets run defense

Edge: Jets

Josh Jacobs was placed on the commissioner's exempt list on August 31 over misdemeanor battery and criminal damage charges from a May arrest, with a court date set for November 17 — he will not play. Green Bay managed only 79 rushing yards on 21 carries at Minnesota; Lloyd took 30 snaps for 13 carries and 37 yards in his first game since Week 2 of 2024, while Chris Brooks played more snaps (38) largely for pass protection and Kaleb Johnson, acquired from Pittsburgh, was limited to two kickoff returns. The Jets rebuilt their interior specifically for this, adding 366-pound T'Vondre Sweat and David Onyemata alongside Demario Davis and Jamien Sherwood.

Packers rushing, Week 1
79 yards on 21 carries
MarShawn Lloyd Week 1
30 snaps, 13 carries, 37 yards
Chris Brooks Week 1 snaps
38 (most in the RB room)

Source: NFL.com — NFL Places Packers RB Josh Jacobs on Commissioner's Exempt List

Jets run offense · Packers run defense

Breece Hall's 102-yard opener vs. a Green Bay front in concussion protocol

Edge: Jets

Hall ran for 102 yards on 22 carries and a 4-yard touchdown at Tennessee, with Braelon Allen adding 40, and the Jets held the ball for 38:46. Green Bay's run defense itself held Minnesota to 108 yards on 29 carries and the defense allowed just 239 total yards, so the Week 1 tape is not damning. The problem is availability: the interior rotation that produced that number is now missing Hargrave and Brinson entirely, with Wyatt limited. Kene Nwangwu (back) did not practice for the Jets, but he is a returner rather than a factor in the early-down run game.

Breece Hall Week 1
102 rushing yards, 22 carries, 1 TD
Jets time of possession, Week 1
38:46
Vikings rushing vs. Packers, Week 1
108 yards on 29 carries

Source: NewYorkJets.com — Jets-Titans Game Recap, 23-10 Week 1 Victory

Packers pass offense · Jets secondary

Christian Watson and Matthew Golden vs. Brandon Stephens and Azareye'h Thomas

Close to even

Sauce Gardner is no longer here — the Jets traded him to Indianapolis for two first-round picks and WR Adonai Mitchell, so the outside corners are now Brandon Stephens and Azareye'h Thomas, with Jarvis Brownlee Jr. and D'Angelo Ponds competing in the slot. Stephens allowed two catches on five targets for 24 yards in Week 1 per PFF; Thomas gave up seven of eight for 46 yards, though several came against backs and a tight end. They draw a Green Bay passing game that still produced 387 yards at Minnesota, with Watson going for 147 yards and two scores on six catches and Golden catching six of twelve targets for 95. Safety help is thinner than usual: Minkah Fitzpatrick (groin) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday.

Christian Watson Week 1
6 catches, 147 yards, 2 TDs
Matthew Golden Week 1
6 of 12 targets, 95 yards
Brandon Stephens Week 1 coverage
2 catches allowed on 5 targets, 24 yards

Source: Last Word on Sports — Brandon Stephens, Azareye'h Thomas: Keys To Defeating Packers

Jets pass offense · Packers pass defense

Garrett Wilson vs. Keisean Nixon, Brandon Cisse and Jonathan Gannon's blitz script

Edge: Jets

Green Bay keeps its corners on fixed sides rather than traveling: Keisean Nixon plays left corner and second-round rookie Brandon Cisse plays right, which lets the Jets choose Wilson's matchup by formation. Nixon played all 65 snaps at Minnesota with an interception, a half-sack and two quarterback hits, while Cisse left briefly with cramps and was a full participant Wednesday. New DC Jonathan Gannon blitzed on 62.5% of first downs in Week 1 but only 20-25% on second and third down, a tendency the Jets can attack with downfield concepts against a four-man rush. Wilson had 79 yards on seven targets in the opener, and Smith went 19-of-24 spreading the ball to eight targets.

Packers CB alignment
Nixon left, Cisse right; corners do not travel
Gannon blitz rate, Week 1
62.5% on first down, 20-25% on second and third
Geno Smith Week 1
19-of-24, 215 yards, 8 different targets

Source: Yardbarker / Jets X-Factor — The Garrett Wilson-Focused Strategy NY Jets Must Use vs. Packers

Sideline · situational

Matt LaFleur's fourth-quarter scrutiny vs. Aaron Glenn calling his own defense

Close to even

Aaron Glenn confirmed at the February combine that he would call the Jets' defensive plays himself, describing play calling as his "superpower," with Frank Reich hired as offensive coordinator and play caller after Tanner Engstrand was let go. Green Bay counters with Matt LaFleur in his eighth season, Adam Stenavich as OC and Jonathan Gannon as a first-year DC. LaFleur's fourth-quarter management drew criticism after Green Bay surrendered 29 unanswered points, and the Packers have lost six straight games dating to last season. The Jets are chasing their first 2-0 start since 2015 and will debut white-on-white helmet shells.

Packers losing streak entering Week 2
6 games
Packers Week 1 penalties and turnovers
12 penalties, 2 turnovers
Jets last 2-0 start
2015

Source: NewYorkJets.com — Aaron Glenn Will Call Defensive Plays This Season

What this read does not know

  • Which side each Jets outside corner plays is not confirmed by an official source. Ourlads lists Azareye'h Thomas at LCB and Brandon Stephens at RCB, but Last Word on Sports explicitly declines to say which side each occupies. No official Jets release confirming sides was located.
  • No published source assigns Christian Watson or Matthew Golden to a specific Jets corner. Last Word on Sports states outright that the matchups are not assigned. Any pairing is inference from Green Bay's side-fixed alignment, not reporting.
  • Whether Lukas Van Ness clears concussion protocol before Sunday is unresolved. He was limited Wednesday and Thursday and had not completed the five-step process as of Thursday; LaFleur called the practice participation encouraging but made no declaration.
  • Javon Hargrave's status is trending the wrong way and unsettled. He was limited Wednesday and a non-participant Thursday with a knee injury and a concussion. The Friday designation was not available at the time of writing.
  • Will McDonald IV's ankle severity is unquantified. He appeared on the injury report for the first time Thursday as a limited participant. No reporting locates the injury's origin or projects his snap count.
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick's availability is unclear. Two straight non-participations with a groin strain; Glenn said only that other experienced safeties can step up, which was not a ruling.
  • The Packers' Week 2 starting offensive line is not confirmed. Aaron Banks missed Week 1 with tendinitis and Jacob Monk started at right guard. Whether Banks returns at left guard and whether Donovan Jennings or Monk starts has not been announced.
  • The Packers' lead back is not designated. Chris Brooks out-snapped MarShawn Lloyd 38-30 in Week 1 but Lloyd out-carried him 13-7. No source names a Week 2 starter, and Kaleb Johnson's offensive role is untested.
  • Josh Jacobs' return timeline is open-ended. The exempt list is described by the NFL as an administrative procedure pending review, and his court appearance is November 17. No source projects a return date.
  • Week 1 defensive rankings cited by the Jets are one-game samples. The team's claim of a second-ranked defense at 195.0 yards per game rests on a single result against Tennessee and should not be treated as a stable measure.
  • Conflicting Week 1 score reporting exists. The Jets' own preview page describes the Packers' loss as 29-22; ESPN, Packers.com and the Vikings box score all record 39-22. The 39-22 figure is used throughout this document.
  • Whether Green Bay shadows Garrett Wilson is unknown. Reporting says the corners hold fixed sides, but no source addresses whether Gannon would break tendency for a receiver of Wilson's caliber.

Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: Last Word on Sports — Packers At Jets Preview · Sports Illustrated — Snaps, Studs and Duds From Packers' Collapse at Vikings · SI — Packers-Jets Thursday Injury Report: Two Key Wrinkles at Edge Rusher · The Jet Press — Week 1 Showed the Jets' O-Line Could Take Them Farther · SI — Jets' Offense Won't Have Any Excuses After Packers' Latest Injury Updates · Packers.com — Packers-Jets Injury Report, Sept. 16, 2026 · NFL.com — NFL Places Packers RB Josh Jacobs on Commissioner's Exempt List · Vikings.com — Packers at Vikings Week 1 Box Score · NewYorkJets.com — 2026 Camp Preview: Defensive Line Gets Bigger · NewYorkJets.com — Jets-Titans Game Recap, 23-10 Week 1 Victory · amNewYork — Jets vs. Packers Week 2 Preview · Last Word on Sports — Brandon Stephens, Azareye'h Thomas: Keys To Defeating Packers

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 2 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 20
AWAY GB +1.4
vs GB -3.5
HOME NYJ -2.7
Fair (books) · NYJ 38% home win prob
Kalshi · NYJ — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 East Rutherford, NJ PASS — no position

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Packers

62%

fair value (books)

Jets

38%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

57%

Madden 27

43%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Packers at Jets How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Packers at JetsSpreadQB HOLD

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Packers at Jets Kalshi spread ladder for Week 2: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Packers–Jets spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Packers vs Jets power ratings (Week 2) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Green Bay Packers+1.410thPlayoff
    New York Jets-2.727thBelow Avg

    Packers and Jets season outlook

    GBNYJ
    Average wins9.76.3
    Make playoffs57%10%
    Win division11%3%
    Win Super Bowl3.5%0.5%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Packers vs Jets — player pages

    All players →

    Tucker Kraft

    TE

    Jordan Love

    QB

    Breece Hall

    RB

    Josh Jacobs

    RB

    Garrett Wilson

    WR

    Christian Watson

    WR

    Matthew Golden

    WR

    Kenyon Sadiq

    TE

    Omar Cooper Jr.

    WR

    Geno Smith

    QB

    Braelon Allen

    RB

    Adonai Mitchell

    Mason Taylor

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: What the model sees in Packers at Jets

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17 (OT) — the graded call is above.

    The Packers travel to face the Jets in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Jets 27th of 32 at -2.7 (Below Avg tier) and the Packers 10th at +1.4 (Playoff tier) — a 4.1-point gap that home field narrows to a 2.5-point line on the Packers, 57% to win. It rates as the 13th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +1.6 (11th of 32) against a Jets defense at -2.0 (25th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jets offense (-1.4, 28th) meets the Packers defense (-0.2, 10th), a 1.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +0.7, 5th in the league, against +0.0 (28th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 6.3 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 11) — 3.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 10th-hardest on the Packers'.

    The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Jets won 27-10 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Packers at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Packers vs Jets on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ
    Market-implied (Jets)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Jets)
    held — QB pending
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 38% for the Jets. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Packers vs Jets trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueJetsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig39% 39cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Packers vs Jets

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    Packers vs Jets — frequently asked

    Who won Packers vs Jets in Week 2?

    Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17 (OT) — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Packers won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Packers vs Jets before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Packers by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Jets. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Packers vs Jets?

    Packers offense (+1.6, 11th of 32) against Jets defense (-2.0, 25th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Jets (+0.7, 5th).

    How do you take a position on Packers vs Jets?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 36c or below, or the Packers at 60c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Jets host the Packers?

    Green Bay Packers visit the New York Jets on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.

    What does the model project for the Jets and Packers this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.3 wins (favored in 3) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Packers', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Packers vs Jets?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Packers vs Jets on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Packers?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Packers at 57% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

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    Next up for each team

    Packers: Week 3 vs FalconsModel line →Jets: Week 3 at LionsModel line →

    More Week 2 matchups

    Lions at BillsModel: Bills −4Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4Saints at RavensModel: Ravens −5.5Vikings at BearsModel: Bears −6Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3Jaguars at BroncosModel: Broncos −0.5Raiders at ChargersModel: Chargers −6.5Seahawks at CardinalsModel: Seahawks −6Commanders at CowboysModel: Cowboys −4.5Dolphins at 49ersModel: 49ers −6.5Colts at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −2.5Giants at RamsModel: Rams −7.5

    Full Week 2 board →Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →

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