Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 36% for the Jets in Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets, NFL Week 2 2026, while our market-anchored fair value has the Packers by 2.5 (62% to win) — a 2.3pp gap. Value side: the Jets. The model's own line is Packers by 2.6 against a market line of Packers by 3.5 — a 0.9-point lean toward the Jets, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-15No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
GB
+3.0
NYJ
-4.0
Packers
62%
model win prob
Jets
38%
model win prob
Market-anchored fair value: NYJ 38% (+2.2pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
57%
Madden 27
43%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Packers at Jets
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
We agree with the market about the middle and disagree about the tail. The gap changes sign near -7.1.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets +10.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Jets +9.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Jets +7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Jets +6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Jets +5.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Jets +4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Jets +3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Jets +2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Jets +1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Jets −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jets −1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Jets −2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Jets −3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Jets −4.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Packers at Jets
The Packers travel to face the Jets in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Jets 31st of 32 at -4.0 (Below Avg tier) and the Packers 5th at +3.0 (Playoff tier) — a 7.0-point gap that home field narrows to a 2.5-point line on the Packers, 62% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.3 (5th of 32) against a Jets defense at -2.1 (26th) — 5.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jets offense (-3.1, 30th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 14th), a 2.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.3 (21st) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 6.7 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13) — 3.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 13th-hardest on the Packers'.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Jets won 27-10 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ contract implies 36% for the Jets against our 38% — a 2.3-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Jets as the value side at 36c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Packers vs Jets on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ
- Market-implied (Jets)
- 36c · 36%
- Our model (Jets)
- 38%
- Model vs market
- +2.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 36c on the Jets is an implied 36% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 38%, a 2.3pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Packers vs Jets trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Jets | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 36% 36c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 36% 36c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 36% 36c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 36% 36c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Packers vs Jets — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Jets in Week 2?
Our power-rating model picks the Packers by 2.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Jets, for a projected score of Packers 25, Jets 22 on a ratings-implied 46.8-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ market implies 36% for the Jets — a 2.3pp gap versus the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Packers vs Jets?
Packers offense (+3.3, 5th of 32) against Jets defense (-2.1, 26th) — 5.4 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Jets (+1.3, 1st).
How do you take a position on Packers vs Jets?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Jets YES is quoted around 36c against our 38% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the New York Jets on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Packers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.7 wins (favored in 4) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 13th-hardest on the Packers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Packers vs Jets?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ. The Jets YES contract sits around 36c, which is an implied 36% — against our model's 38%. That is a 2.3pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Packers vs Jets on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20GBNYJ. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Packers?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Packers at 62% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Jets moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 36%, an edge of +2.3 points. Model 38% vs market 36% on NYJ. We pass — no position.
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