Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks
Updated · model ratings
Monday, December 7, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 6 in Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 13 2026 — 67% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Cowboys, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Seahawks at 62c or below (or Cowboys at 28c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DAL
+1.4
SEA
+5.5
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Cowboys
33%
model win prob
Seahawks
67%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
48%
Madden 27
52%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Seahawks at 62c or below, or the Cowboys at 28c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Cowboys at Seahawks
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −13.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Seahawks −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Rest first, ratings second: Cowboys at Seahawks
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Cowboys come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 8 days' rest for the Seahawks against 11 days' rest for the Cowboys. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Seahawks by 6 (67%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Cowboys come in off the Eagles, the Seahawks off the 49ers. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -3.5 (32nd) — 5.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+4.1, 3rd) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 2.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.7 (7th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Seahawks at 10.9 wins (favored in 16 of 17) and the Cowboys at 8.8 (favored in 11) — 2.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Seahawks' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Cowboys'. Nothing on the Cowboys' schedule projects harder than this one.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Seahawks 67%, Cowboys 33%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Seahawks contracts a buy at 62c or below and Cowboys contracts a buy at 28c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Cowboys vs Seahawks on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA
- Market-implied (Seahawks)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Seahawks)
- 67%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Seahawks at 62c or below, or the Cowboys at 28c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Cowboys vs Seahawks trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Seahawks | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Cowboys vs Seahawks — frequently asked
Who is favored in Cowboys vs Seahawks in Week 13?
Our power-rating model picks the Seahawks by 6 points, a 67% win probability over the Cowboys, for a projected score of Seahawks 29, Cowboys 23 on a ratings-implied 52.0-point total. The Seahawks rate 2nd of 32 (+5.5) and the Cowboys 11th (+1.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Cowboys have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 6-point line or the 67% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Cowboys vs Seahawks?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Seahawks at 62c or below, or the Cowboys at 28c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Seahawks host the Cowboys?
Dallas Cowboys visit the Seattle Seahawks on Monday, December 7, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 13, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
What does the model project for the Seahawks and Cowboys this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.9 wins (favored in 16) and the Cowboys at 8.8 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Cowboys', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Cowboys vs Seahawks?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Seahawks at 62c or below or the Cowboys at 28c or below, off a 6-point line.
Can you trade Cowboys vs Seahawks on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 13 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Seahawks?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Seahawks at 67% over the Cowboys sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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