Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks
Monday, December 7, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 6 in Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 13 2026 — 68% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Cowboys, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Seahawks at 63c or below (or Cowboys at 27c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DAL
+1.5
SEA
+5.2
Cowboys
32%
model win prob
Seahawks
68%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEAhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Seahawks at 63c or below, or the Cowboys at 27c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Cowboys at Seahawks
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Cowboys come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 8 days' rest for the Seahawks against 11 days' rest for the Cowboys. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Seahawks by 6 (68%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Cowboys come in off the Eagles, the Seahawks off the 49ers. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -3.2 (32nd) — 5.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+3.9, 3rd) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.8, 4th), a 2.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.7 (7th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Seahawks at 10.8 wins (favored in 16 of 17) and the Cowboys at 8.8 (favored in 11) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Seahawks' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Cowboys'.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 68% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Seahawks 68%, Cowboys 32%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Seahawks contracts a buy at 63c or below and Cowboys contracts a buy at 27c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Cowboys vs Seahawks — frequently asked
Who is favored in Cowboys vs Seahawks in Week 13?
Our power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 6 points, a 68% win probability over the Cowboys. The Seahawks rate 3rd of 32 (+5.2) and the Cowboys 11th (+1.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Cowboys have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 6-point line or the 68% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Cowboys vs Seahawks?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC07DALSEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Seahawks at 63c or below, or the Cowboys at 27c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Seahawks host the Cowboys?
Dallas Cowboys visit the Seattle Seahawks on Monday, December 7, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 13, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
What does the model project for the Seahawks and Cowboys this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.8 wins (favored in 16) and the Cowboys at 8.8 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Cowboys', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 68% on a team like the Seahawks?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Seahawks at 68% over the Cowboys sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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