NFL Week 10 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 10 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 14 games is the Seahawks at 79% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 14 Week 10 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Commanders at Giants — Model winner: Giants (58%)
- Patriots at Lions — Model winner: Patriots (58%)
- Chiefs at Falcons — Model winner: Falcons (58%)
- Texans at Browns — Model winner: Texans (54%)
- Vikings at Packers — Model winner: Packers (67%)
- Dolphins at Colts — Model winner: Colts (66%)
- Panthers at Saints — Model winner: Saints (54%)
- Bills at Jets — Model winner: Bills (67%)
- Jaguars at Titans — Model winner: Jaguars (62%)
- Rams at Cardinals — Model winner: Rams (68%)
- Seahawks at Raiders — Model winner: Seahawks (79%)
- 49ers at Cowboys — Model winner: Cowboys (61%)
- Steelers at Bengals — Model winner: Bengals (57%)
- Chargers at Ravens — Model winner: Ravens (64%)
All 14 Week 10 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
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Week 10 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 14 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Giants over Commanders58%—
- Patriots over Lions58%—
- Falcons over Chiefs58%—
- Texans over Browns54%—
- Packers over Vikings67%—
- Colts over Dolphins66%—
- Saints over Panthers54%—
- Bills over Jets67%—
- Jaguars over Titans62%—
- Rams over Cardinals68%—
- Seahawks over Raiders79%—
- Cowboys over 49ers61%—
- Bengals over Steelers57%—
- Ravens over Chargers64%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 10 projected scores
- CommandersatGiants24.1–26.750.8
- PatriotsatLions25.0–22.347.3
- ChiefsatFalcons21.5–24.245.6
- TexansatBrowns19.3–17.737.0
- VikingsatPackers18.9–27.045.8
- DolphinsatColts21.2–26.948.0
- PanthersatSaints21.3–22.643.9
- BillsatJets26.8–20.947.8
- JaguarsatTitans24.1–20.344.4
- RamsatCardinals28.1–21.749.8
- SeahawksatRaiders25.7–16.442.2
- 49ersatCowboys25.9–29.155.0
- SteelersatBengals22.1–24.546.7
- ChargersatRavens20.0–24.544.5
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 10 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 10 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 10 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 14 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 10 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 10 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 14 Week 10 games, with its win probability. Giants over Commanders (58%); Patriots over Lions (58%); Falcons over Chiefs (58%); Texans over Browns (54%); Packers over Vikings (67%); Colts over Dolphins (66%); Saints over Panthers (54%); Bills over Jets (67%); Jaguars over Titans (62%); Rams over Cardinals (68%); Seahawks over Raiders (79%); Cowboys over 49ers (61%); Bengals over Steelers (57%); Ravens over Chargers (64%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 10?
Projected scores, winner first: Giants 26.7, Commanders 24.1; Patriots 25.0, Lions 22.3; Falcons 24.2, Chiefs 21.5; Texans 19.3, Browns 17.7; Packers 27.0, Vikings 18.9; Colts 26.9, Dolphins 21.2; Saints 22.6, Panthers 21.3; Bills 26.8, Jets 20.9; Jaguars 24.1, Titans 20.3; Rams 28.1, Cardinals 21.7; Seahawks 25.7, Raiders 16.4; Cowboys 29.1, 49ers 25.9; Bengals 24.5, Steelers 22.1; Ravens 24.5, Chargers 20.0. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 10 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.