Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (neutral site)
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 45% for the Cowboys in Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys, NFL Week 3 2026, while our model has the Cowboys by 0.5 (52% to win) — a 7.6pp gap. Value side: the Cowboys.
Kickoff board
Week 3 · 2026-09-151 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 7.6pp on Cowboys moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
BAL
+1.2
DAL
+1.4
Ravens
48%
model win prob
Cowboys
52%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
50%
Madden 27
50%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Ravens at Cowboys
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Cowboys −7.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
4 more rungsCowboys −9.5 → Cowboys −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
No home field: pricing Ravens–Cowboys on neutral ground
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +1.4 for the Cowboys against +1.2 for the Ravens, giving the Cowboys by 0.5 and 52% to win. The Cowboys are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Dallas.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.0 (12th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -3.5 (32nd) — 4.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+4.1, 3rd) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 11th), a 4.4-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Cowboys against 9.2 for the Ravens, favored in 11 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 8th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Ravens'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Ravens won 28-25 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Cowboys are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Cowboys at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL contract implies 45% for the Cowboys against our 52% — a 7.6-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Cowboys as the value side at 45c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Cowboys on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL
- Market-implied (Cowboys)
- 45c · 45%
- Our model (Cowboys)
- 52%
- Model vs market
- +7.6pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 45c on the Cowboys is an implied 45% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 52%, a 7.6pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Ravens vs Cowboys trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Cowboys | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 45% 45c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 45% 45c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 45% 45c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Ravens vs Cowboys — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Cowboys in Week 3?
Our power-rating model picks the Cowboys by 0.5 points, a 52% win probability over the Ravens, for a projected score of Cowboys 27, Ravens 26 on a ratings-implied 52.9-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL market implies 45% for the Cowboys — a 7.6pp gap versus the model.
Is there a home-field advantage in this game?
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Cowboys are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Cowboys by 0.5 — is the raw ratings gap between +1.4 and +1.2.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Cowboys?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Cowboys YES is quoted around 45c against our 52% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Where do the Cowboys and Ravens play this game?
Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys meet at Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Sunday, September 27, 2026, NFL Week 3. The Cowboys are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
What does the model project for the Cowboys and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cowboys at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the Ravens at 9.2 (favored in 10). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Ravens vs Cowboys?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL. The Cowboys YES contract sits around 45c, which is an implied 45% — against our model's 52%. That is a 7.6pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Ravens vs Cowboys on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Cowboys?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Cowboys at 52% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Cowboys moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 52% against a market price implying 45%, an edge of +7.6 points. Model 52% vs market 45% on DAL. We rate it lean, sized at 3.4% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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