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Home/NFL/Week 3/Ravens vs Cowboys
Gridiron EdgeWeek 3 · 2026

Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31

Final. Cowboys' next game: Cowboys vs Cardinals, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (neutral site)

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 27, 2026): Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 — NFL Week 3, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 3.5 (62% to win); the Ravens won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Ravens at 63c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 3.5 (62% to win). The Ravens won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Ravens: +4c — we archived the Ravens at 59c on Sep 21; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 63c on Sep 27. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Every game · Week 3

The best play from every Week 3 game, and where to get in

This game: Mark Andrews under 5 receptions (NO). Wait for the Zay Flowers news before you size it.

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 3 · 2026-09-28

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Cowboys to winModel 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 37% on DAL — kept as the pre-game record.37c38%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Baltimore 34, Dallas 31 in Rio: seven seconds, a 27-yard pass to Flowers, a timeout with one second left, and Loop from 56

Brandon Aubrey’s 23-yard field goal tied it at 31 with seven seconds left, after a pass-interference call on Nate Wiggins had given Dallas the ball at the 2. Lamar Jackson then hit Zay Flowers for 27, called a timeout with one second on the clock, and Tyler Loop’s 56-yarder won the NFL’s first game in Rio de Janeiro in front of an announced 72,792 at the Maracanã. Derrick Henry ran for two touchdowns and passed Eric Dickerson for ninth on the career rushing list; Dallas went 96 yards for the go-ahead touchdown after rookie Jaishawn Barham stuffed Henry on fourth-and-inches at the goal line.

Ravens 34—Cowboys 31

Final✓ Call hit

The chip grades the stored probability, which had Dallas at 37.8% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 3.5-point Baltimore line — so it picked Baltimore, and Baltimore won: a hit. The model’s own read was Baltimore by 0.6, the right team and closer to the three-point final than the anchor was, but expressed as a 2.9-point lean toward Dallas at WATCH — and Dallas did cover the 3.5 by half a point, so the lean was right about the number and the chip was right about the winner. Neither is a position: no weekly-edges ledger row exists for 2026_03_BAL_DAL, and the page published the read in points. This was a neutral-site game; Dallas is the designated home team and the scoreline and slug treat it that way. DraftKings opened Ravens minus 2.5 and closed minus 3, and the code’s verdict on that half-point is toward-winner. What the house did publish was on the player board, and all three visible calls cleared. Saturday’s article took Mark Andrews under five receptions, the NO at 60c, PLAY, HIGH — a quarter of the position on Saturday and the rest only if Flowers was active; Flowers played and caught five for 84, Andrews caught three, and the call won. The same strike on the final board (BAL Andrews receptions 4.5 UNDER, HIGH, the YES at 43.5c so the NO cost 56.5c, the YES closing 44.5c, CLV minus 1c) cleared with an asterisk the projection did not contain: Andrews left in the first half with a hand injury and returned later, per the AP. DAL CeeDee Lamb under 7.5 receptions, HIGH, the YES at 35c so the NO cost 65c, closing 33.5c, CLV plus 1.5c — he caught exactly seven, a win by half a catch. DAL Ryan Flournoy under 4.5 receptions, HIGH, the YES at 25.5c so the NO cost 74.5c, closing 25.5c, CLV flat — two catches on eight targets, a win. Nineteen WATCH rows went 8-11 and are graded apart, among them Andrews at the 3.5 rung and Andrews over 14.5 receiving yards, both of which also resolved our way.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Ravens −2.5 → Ravens −3
Total
52.5 → 54.5
To win
BAL −135 / DAL +114 → BAL −162 / DAL +136

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 2 to 54.5; the game landed on 65.

How it happened

Q1

Aubrey from 28, a Baltimore fourth-down failure at its own 30, Williams from the 2 — and Henry from 4

Dallas went 57 yards in eleven plays for Aubrey’s 28-yarder, and when Baltimore failed on fourth down at its own 30, Javonte Williams scored from two five plays later, 10-0. Jackson then took the Ravens 60 yards in six plays and Henry scored from four. Baltimore ran the ball 38 times for 192 yards on the day, Jackson six times for 50.

After one
Cowboys 10, Ravens 7
Baltimore rushing
38 carries · 192 yds (Henry 26-89-2, Jackson 6-50)
Williams
19 carries · 98 yds · 1 TD

ESPN — box score

Q2

Eighty-nine yards in six plays to Henry from 3, and 17 straight Baltimore points for a 17-13 half

From its own 11, Baltimore went 89 yards in six plays and 3:30, Henry finishing from three; a five-yard run earlier in the quarter had moved him past Dickerson into ninth all-time. Dallas failed on fourth down at its own 44, Loop kicked a 27-yarder off the short field, and Aubrey’s 38-yarder with 18 seconds left made it 17-13. Jackson was 15 of 20 for 186 on the day without a sack or an interception.

Halftime
Ravens 17, Cowboys 13
Jackson
15/20 · 186 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · 0 sacks
Henry
Passed Eric Dickerson (13,259) for 9th all-time (AP)

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Ferguson fumbled a shovel pass, Keondre Jackson blocked a 59-yard try, Moore scored from 4 — and Barham stuffed Henry on fourth-and-inches

Jake Ferguson fumbled a shovel pass at the Baltimore 23, and when Dallas tried a 59-yard field goal on its next possession Keondre Jackson blocked it, giving the Ravens the ball near midfield; four plays later Lamar Jackson hit Chris Moore from four, 24-13. Ferguson answered from 19 and Prescott hit Lamb for two, 24-21, and Baltimore then drove 76 yards to the Dallas 1 — where, early in the fourth quarter, rookie linebacker Barham sliced through and stopped Henry in the backfield on fourth-and-inches.

Dallas turnovers
1 (Ferguson fumble)
Baltimore fourth down
0 for 2 (own 30; Dallas 1)
Aubrey
3/4 FG (28, 38, 23; 59-yard try blocked)

ESPN — AP recap

Q4

96 yards and Turpin from 9; Hibner with 1:30 left; Aubrey with 0:07; Loop at 0:00

From the 4, Dallas went 96 yards in seven plays — a 49-yard pass to Lamb among them — and KaVontae Turpin ran it in from nine, 28-24. Baltimore answered with an 11-play, 64-yard drive and Jackson’s two-yard touchdown to rookie tight end Matthew Hibner with 1:30 left. Wiggins’ pass interference with 23 seconds left put Dallas at the 2; an incompletion and a false start pushed it to the 7, and Aubrey tied it from 23 with seven seconds left. Jackson to Flowers for 27, a timeout with one second on the clock, Loop from 56.

Winning possession
2 plays · 27 yards · 7 seconds
Loop
2/2 FG (27, 56)
Lamb
7 rec · 112 yds; Prescott 25/40 · 276 yds · 1 TD

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • No game-level row exists in nfl_weekly_edges for 2026_03_BAL_DAL, so the ledger has nothing to grade on the game itself; the chip above is derived on this page from the stored probability and the final score. The prop rows on this page are not yet graded by the ledger — the Tue/Wed launchd pass owns them (--tables prop was not run) — so every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W3_SUNDAY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w03-sunday.csv), never by hand; entry_price on a NO or UNDER row is the YES price, so that side’s cost is 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • There is no weekly-edges ledger row for 2026_03_BAL_DAL, so there is no entry, no close and no CLV to report. The 37.8% the chip graded is the anchored (market) probability, not the model’s.
  • Lamb’s under 7.5 receptions cleared on exactly seven catches and is exposed to any official-gamebook correction. Andrews’ under 4.5 cleared on three catches with a first-half hand injury in between (AP); the projection did not contain that absence, and the win is reported with it attached.
  • The AP story available at write time was a first version filed within the hour; the first-half sequence above is read from ESPN’s scoring log, drive chart and box score, and the second-half detail (the blocked kick, the fourth-and-inches stop, the 49-yard Lamb catch) is the AP’s. The Ferguson fumble spot is the drive chart’s.
  • The game was played on grass at the Maracanã, the NFL’s third game in Brazil and first in Rio; the AP says the surface held up. ESPN’s summary carried no weather block. Attendance (72,792) is the announced figure.
  • Jalen Thompson (hamstring) left in the second quarter for Dallas; Markquese Bell (dehydration) left and returned. No severity is known for Andrews’ hand.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close, and the prop grades are resolutions against the box score, not settlements read off the exchange.

Reporting verified 2026-09-27. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Jackson’s pass, alert timeout call lead to Loop’s 56-yard field goal as Ravens beat Cowboys 34-31 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

Two 1-1 teams in Rio, and Baltimore is missing most of the people who were supposed to fix its defense

This one is played at the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro, so neither side has a crowd and neither is credited home-field advantage on our board. Dallas arrives with the fourth-best offense in the league by both EPA per play and success rate. Baltimore arrives having let Tyler Shough throw for 7.4 yards an attempt, and held its top receiver, its left tackle and its best pass rusher out of Wednesday’s practice.

Cowboys offense · Ravens defense

The Cowboys’ offense against the part of Baltimore that is not working

Edge: Cowboys

Dallas ranks fourth in the league in both EPA per play and offensive success rate through two weeks. Baltimore’s defense allowed Tyler Shough 7.4 yards per attempt in a Week 2 loss to New Orleans, and this week it held out Trey Hendrickson (finger) and rested Calais Campbell, with safety Malaki Starks limited with a hamstring. If Hendrickson does not go, the pass rush and the secondary are compromised in the same game against the more efficient offense on the field.

Cowboys offense
4th in EPA/play and success rate
Ravens Week 2
Allowed Tyler Shough 7.4 yds/attempt in a loss
Ravens (latest report)
Hendrickson limited; Stanley DNP; Flowers questionable; Campbell full

Source: Covers — Ravens vs Cowboys Week 3 preview

Ravens offense · Cowboys front

Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry against a pass rush that has not shown up

Edge: Ravens

Jackson is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt with a 10.9-yard average depth of target, and Henry is at 5.3 yards a carry — which is to say Baltimore’s offense is not the problem. What it faces is a Dallas pass rush that has generated very little through two games. The complication for Baltimore is protection and personnel: left tackle Ronnie Stanley (toe) did not practise, guard John Simpson (groin) was limited, and Zay Flowers (hamstring), the team’s leading receiver, sat out Wednesday and is questionable after only individual drills on Friday.

Lamar Jackson
10.0 yards per attempt, 10.9 aDoT
Derrick Henry
5.3 yards per carry
Zay Flowers (hamstring)
Questionable; individual drills only Friday

Source: Covers — Ravens vs Cowboys Week 3 preview

Ravens pass offense · Cowboys secondary

Dallas ruled out three defensive backs and a linebacker

Edge: Ravens

Cobie Durant (hamstring), Malik Hooker (forearm), P.J. Locke (foot) and Demarvion Overshown (hamstring) are all OUT — Overshown did not even travel to Brazil — which is a large share of the back seven that has to deal with Jackson. Baltimore’s absences are still questions; Dallas’s are answered.

Cowboys ruled OUT
Durant, Hooker, Locke (DBs), Overshown (LB)
Venue
Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro — neutral site
Records
Both teams 1-1

Source: Russell Street Report — Ravens at Cowboys Wednesday injury report

What this read does not know

  • Zay Flowers’s hamstring and Ronnie Stanley’s toe are the two that decide the shape of this game. Flowers is questionable after individual drills only; Stanley had not practised in the latest official report. Hendrickson (finger) returned as a limited participant.
  • Baltimore’s complete Friday designations had not posted when this was verified ; the Flowers status is from beat reporting the same day.
  • The neutral-site effect on a game in Rio is not something we model beyond removing home-field advantage. Travel, altitude, surface and kickoff-time effects for an international game are not in our numbers, and the flat removal of home field is the whole of the adjustment.
  • Two stale articles from the 2025 season — a December piece on Jackson missing practice with an illness and a November piece on Prescott being limited with a hip — rank highly in search for this matchup. Neither applies. If either turns up quoted this week, it is last season’s.
  • We publish no position on this game — the model rows for it sit in held stat families on a run with a systemic one-way lean. See the week’s handoff.

Reporting verified 2026-09-25. Further sources: Russell Street Report — Ravens at Cowboys Wednesday injury report · Covers — Ravens vs Cowboys Week 3 preview · NFL.com — official Week 3 injury report (latest practice participation) · ESPN — NFL injuries, Friday 09-25 designations

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 3 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 27
AWAY BAL +1.2
vs BAL -3.5
HOME DAL -0.6
Fair (books) · DAL 38% home win prob
Kalshi · DAL — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil PASS — no position

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Ravens

62%

fair value (books)

Cowboys

38%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

50%

Madden 27

50%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Ravens at Cowboys How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Ravens at CowboysSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Ravens at Cowboys Kalshi spread ladder for Week 3: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Ravens–Cowboys spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Ravens vs Cowboys power ratings (Week 3) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Baltimore Ravens+1.211thPlayoff
    Dallas Cowboys-0.619thAverage

    Ravens and Cowboys season outlook

    BALDAL
    Average wins9.28.0
    Make playoffs49%32%
    Win division13%25%
    Win Super Bowl2.9%1.9%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Ravens vs Cowboys — player pages

    All players →

    CeeDee Lamb

    WR

    Javonte Williams

    RB

    Derrick Henry

    RB

    George Pickens

    WR

    Zay Flowers

    WR

    Lamar Jackson

    QB

    Dak Prescott

    QB

    Jake Ferguson

    TE

    Mark Andrews

    TE

    Ryan Flournoy

    WR

    Josh Cuevas

    TE

    Devontez Walker

    Ja'Kobi Lane

    WR

    Rashod Bateman

    Brevyn Spann-Ford

    Justice Hill

    RB

    Tyler Goodson

    Nick Vannett

    Matt Hibner

    DAL Cowboys D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: No home field: pricing Ravens–Cowboys on neutral ground

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 — the graded call is above.

    The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: -0.6 for the Cowboys against +1.2 for the Ravens, giving the Ravens by 0.5 and 52% to win. The Cowboys are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Dallas.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +2.0 (10th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -4.6 (32nd) — 6.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+3.5, 3rd) meets the Ravens defense (-1.1, 17th), a 4.7-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cowboys at 8.0 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the Ravens at 9.2 (favored in 10) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 6th-hardest game on the Cowboys' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Ravens'.

    One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Ravens won 28-25 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Cowboys are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Ravens at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Ravens vs Cowboys on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL
    Market-implied (Cowboys)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Cowboys)
    38%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 38% for the Cowboys. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Ravens vs Cowboys trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueCowboysTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig38% 38cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Ravens vs Cowboys, Week 3 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/ravens-vs-cowboys-week-03-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Watch the breakdown: Ravens vs Cowboys

    NFL Edge: Every 2026 Game Priced Against Kalshi (50% Off) — video thumbnail0:31NFL Edge: Every 2026 Game Priced Against Kalshi (50% Off)Aug 16, 2026

    Ravens vs Cowboys — frequently asked

    Who won Ravens vs Cowboys in Week 3?

    Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 — final, played Sunday, September 27, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Ravens won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Ravens vs Cowboys before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Ravens by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Cowboys. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Is there a home-field advantage in this game?

    No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Cowboys are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Ravens by 0.5 — is the raw ratings gap between -0.6 and +1.2.

    How do you take a position on Ravens vs Cowboys?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cowboys at 36c or below, or the Ravens at 60c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    Where do the Cowboys and Ravens play this game?

    Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys meet at Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Sunday, September 27, 2026, NFL Week 3. The Cowboys are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.

    What does the model project for the Cowboys and Ravens this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Cowboys at 8.0 wins (favored in 6) and the Ravens at 9.2 (favored in 10). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Ravens', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Ravens vs Cowboys?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Ravens vs Cowboys on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 3 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Ravens?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Ravens at 52% over the Cowboys sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Cowboys to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 37%, an edge of +0.8 points. Model 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 37% on DAL — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Ravens: Week 4 vs TitansModel line →Cowboys: Week 4 at TexansModel line →

    More Week 3 matchups

    Falcons at PackersModel: Packers −6Chargers at BillsModel: Bills −7.5Panthers at BrownsModel: Browns −1.5Jets at LionsModel: Lions −6Texans at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5Patriots at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −0.5Chiefs at DolphinsModel: Chiefs −1Titans at GiantsModel: evenBengals at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Seahawks at CommandersModel: Seahawks −8Cardinals at 49ersModel: 49ers −7.5Vikings at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −2.5Raiders at SaintsModel: Saints −5Rams at BroncosModel: Rams −0.5Eagles at BearsModel: Eagles −2

    Full Week 3 board →Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

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