Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Neutral site
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Cowboys by 0 in Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys, NFL Week 3 2026 — 51% to win, and a neutral-site game, so the model applies no home-field adjustment. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cowboys at 46c or below (or Ravens at 44c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BAL
+1.3
DAL
+1.5
Ravens
49%
model win prob
Cowboys
51%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDALhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cowboys at 46c or below, or the Ravens at 44c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
No home field: pricing Ravens–Cowboys on neutral ground
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +1.5 for the Cowboys against +1.3 for the Ravens, giving the Cowboys by 0 and 51% to win. The Cowboys are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Dallas.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.2 (11th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -3.2 (32nd) — 4.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+3.9, 3rd) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 12th), a 4.2-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Cowboys against 9.3 for the Ravens, favored in 11 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 8th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Ravens'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Ravens won 28-25 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Cowboys are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Cowboys at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 51% / 49% — the tradable window is narrow: Cowboys at 46c or below, Ravens at 44c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Cowboys — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Cowboys in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Cowboys by 0 points, a 51% win probability over the Ravens. The Cowboys rate 11th of 32 (+1.5) and the Ravens 12th (+1.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Is there a home-field advantage in this game?
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Cowboys are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Cowboys by 0 — is the raw ratings gap between +1.5 and +1.3.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Cowboys?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27BALDAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cowboys at 46c or below, or the Ravens at 44c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Where do the Cowboys and Ravens play this game?
Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys meet at a neutral site on Sunday, September 27, 2026, NFL Week 3. The Cowboys are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
What does the model project for the Cowboys and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cowboys at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Cowboys?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Cowboys at 51% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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