Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

Friday, December 25, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Packers

44%

model win prob

Bears

56%

model win prob

Model line

Bears −2

Kalshi (Bears)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bears — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Green Bay Packers+1.46thPlayoff

Chicago Bears+0.910thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 16, the Green Bay Packers travel to face the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bears 10th of 32 (Average tier, +0.9) and the Packers 6th (Playoff tier, +1.4). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bears by 2 — a 56% win probability for the Bears.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 56% (Bears) / 44% (Packers) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a NFC North divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the NFC North race. Track the full division on the NFC North hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Packers vs Bears — frequently asked

Who is favored in Packers vs Bears in Week 16?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bears by 2 points and gives them a 56% win probability over the Packers. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Packers vs Bears?

Home win probability 56% (Bears), away 44% (Packers). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bears rate 10th of 32 (Average tier), the Packers 6th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Packers vs Bears on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.