Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders
Updated · model ratings
Monday, November 23, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Commanders by 2 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders, NFL Week 11 2026 — 56% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Commanders, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Commanders at 51c or below (or Bengals at 39c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CIN
-0.6
WAS
-1.5
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Bengals
44%
model win prob
Commanders
56%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
52%
Madden 27
48%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Commanders at 51c or below, or the Bengals at 39c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bengals at Commanders
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Commanders −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Commanders −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Commanders −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Commanders −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Commanders −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Commanders −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Commanders −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsCommanders −10.5 → Commanders −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Rest first, ratings second: Bengals at Commanders
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Commanders come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 11 days' rest for the Commanders against 8 days' rest for the Bengals. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Commanders by 2 (56%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Bengals come in off the Steelers, the Commanders off the Giants. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bengals offense grades +0.7 (15th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.8 (29th) — 3.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Bengals defense (-2.1, 25th), a 3.1-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Bengals grade +0.8, 5th in the league, against +0.4 (20th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.6 projected wins for the Commanders against 8.6 for the Bengals, favored in 3 and 8 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Bengals'.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Commanders at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 56% / 44% — the tradable window is narrow: Commanders at 51c or below, Bengals at 39c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bengals vs Commanders on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS
- Market-implied (Commanders)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Commanders)
- 56%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Commanders at 51c or below, or the Bengals at 39c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bengals vs Commanders trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Commanders | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bengals vs Commanders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bengals vs Commanders in Week 11?
Our power-rating model picks the Commanders by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Bengals, for a projected score of Commanders 26, Bengals 24 on a ratings-implied 50.6-point total. The Commanders rate 23rd of 32 (-1.5) and the Bengals 21st (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Commanders have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 2-point line or the 56% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Bengals vs Commanders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Commanders at 51c or below, or the Bengals at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Commanders host the Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Washington Commanders on Monday, November 23, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 11, at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD.
What does the model project for the Commanders and Bengals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 7.6 wins (favored in 3) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 8). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Bengals', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bengals vs Commanders?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Commanders at 51c or below or the Bengals at 39c or below, off a 2-point line.
Can you trade Bengals vs Commanders on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 11 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Commanders?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Commanders at 56% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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