Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders
Monday, November 23, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Commanders by 1.5 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders, NFL Week 11 2026 — 54% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Commanders, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Commanders at 49c or below (or Bengals at 41c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CIN
-0.6
WAS
-1.5
Bengals
46%
model win prob
Commanders
54%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAShasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Commanders at 49c or below, or the Bengals at 41c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Bengals at Commanders
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Commanders come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 11 days' rest for the Commanders against 8 days' rest for the Bengals. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Commanders by 1.5 (54%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Bengals come in off the Steelers, the Commanders off the Giants. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bengals offense grades +0.7 (15th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.9 (30th) — 3.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Bengals defense (-2.1, 25th), a 3.1-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Bengals grade +0.8, 5th in the league, against +0.4 (20th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Commanders at 7.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 7) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Commanders' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Bengals'.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Commanders at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 54% / 46% — the tradable window is narrow: Commanders at 49c or below, Bengals at 41c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bengals vs Commanders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bengals vs Commanders in Week 11?
Our power-rating model favors the Commanders by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Bengals. The Commanders rate 23rd of 32 (-1.5) and the Bengals 21st (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Commanders have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 1.5-point line or the 54% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Bengals vs Commanders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV23CINWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Commanders at 49c or below, or the Bengals at 41c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Commanders host the Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Washington Commanders on Monday, November 23, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 11, at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD.
What does the model project for the Commanders and Bengals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 7.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 7). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Bengals', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Commanders?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Commanders at 54% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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