Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Jets by 0.5 in Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets, NFL Week 5 2026 — 51% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.0 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 46c or below (or Browns at 44c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CLE
-2.0
NYJ
-4.0
Browns
49%
model win prob
Jets
51%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 46c or below, or the Browns at 44c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Browns–Jets is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Browns rate -2.0 (25th of 32) against -4.0 for the Jets (31st) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 2.0-point gap between them, so the model lands at 51% for the Jets anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 3rd-closest of the 15 games in Week 5, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 6.5 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Browns at 7.9 (favored in 6) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Browns'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Browns grade +1.9 on that side of the ball (3rd of 32) against a Jets offense at -3.1 (30th) — 5.0 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Browns offense (-3.7, 31st) meets the Jets defense (-2.2, 27th), a 1.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against -0.2 (31st) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the calendar, the Browns are on 10 days and the Jets are on 7 days. The Browns come in off the Steelers, the Jets off the Bears. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Recent history, for context only: 15 regular-season meetings since 2002, 9-6 in the Jets' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Jets won 27-20 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Jets at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 51% / 49% — the tradable window is narrow: Jets at 46c or below, Browns at 44c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Browns vs Jets — frequently asked
Who is favored in Browns vs Jets in Week 5?
Our power-rating model favors the Jets by 0.5 points, a 51% win probability over the Browns. The Jets rate 31st of 32 (-4.0) and the Browns 25th (-2.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Jets (-4.0, 31st) and Browns (-2.0, 25th) are only 2.0 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 51%/49%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Browns vs Jets?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 46c or below, or the Browns at 44c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Browns?
Cleveland Browns visit the New York Jets on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Browns this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.5 wins (favored in 4) and the Browns at 7.9 (favored in 6). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Browns', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Jets?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Jets at 51% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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