Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Jets by 0.5 in Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets, NFL Week 5 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 1.7 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 47c or below (or Browns at 43c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CLE
-2.3
NYJ
-4.0
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Browns
48%
model win prob
Jets
52%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
46%
Madden 27
54%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 47c or below, or the Browns at 43c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Browns at Jets
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jets −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jets −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jets −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jets −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jets −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jets −7.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
4 more rungsJets −9.5 → Jets −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Browns–Jets is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Browns rate -2.3 (26th of 32) against -4.0 for the Jets (31st) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.7-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Jets anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 1st-closest of the 15 games in Week 5, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 6.7 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Browns at 7.8 (favored in 6) — 1.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Browns'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Browns grade +1.9 on that side of the ball (3rd of 32) against a Jets offense at -3.1 (30th) — 5.0 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Browns offense (-4.0, 31st) meets the Jets defense (-2.1, 26th), a 1.9-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against -0.2 (31st) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the calendar, the Browns are on 10 days and the Jets are on 7 days. The Browns come in off the Steelers, the Jets off the Bears. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Recent history, for context only: 15 regular-season meetings since 2002, 9-6 in the Jets' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Jets won 27-20 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Jets at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 52% / 48% — the tradable window is narrow: Jets at 47c or below, Browns at 43c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Browns vs Jets on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ
- Market-implied (Jets)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Jets)
- 52%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Jets at 47c or below, or the Browns at 43c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Browns vs Jets trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Jets | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Browns vs Jets — frequently asked
Who is favored in Browns vs Jets in Week 5?
Our power-rating model picks the Jets by 0.5 points, a 52% win probability over the Browns, for a projected score of Jets 19, Browns 18 on a ratings-implied 37.2-point total. The Jets rate 31st of 32 (-4.0) and the Browns 26th (-2.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Jets (-4.0, 31st) and Browns (-2.3, 26th) are only 1.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 52%/48%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Browns vs Jets?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 47c or below, or the Browns at 43c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Browns?
Cleveland Browns visit the New York Jets on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Browns this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.7 wins (favored in 4) and the Browns at 7.8 (favored in 6). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Browns', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Browns vs Jets?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Jets at 47c or below or the Browns at 43c or below, off a 0.5-point line.
Can you trade Browns vs Jets on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Jets?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Jets at 52% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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