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Home/NFL/Week 5/Browns vs Jets
Gridiron EdgeWeek 5 · 2026

Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17

Final. Jets' next game: Jets vs Patriots, Week 6 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jets by 2.5 (59% to win); the Jets won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Jets at 56c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

Settled

Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jets by 2.5 (59% to win). The Jets won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Jets: +3c — we archived the Jets at 53c on Oct 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 56c on Oct 11. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Jets moneylineModel 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on NYJ — kept as the pre-game record.56c59%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Jets 17, Browns 12: a punt snap through Corey Bojorquez’s hands set up Braelon Allen’s 22-yard go-ahead run with 3:01 left

New York ended a three-game losing streak in the rain at MetLife Stadium, sacking Deshaun Watson eight times, three of them by rookie David Bailey. Watson’s 29-yard touchdown to Denzel Boston put Cleveland ahead 12-10 with 6:15 left, but Andre Szmyt’s extra point hit the right upright, and after a Browns three-and-out the snap went through Bojorquez’s hands and Trevin Wallace recovered at the Cleveland 23. Allen scored three plays later, and Will McDonald IV’s fourth-down strip-sack ended Cleveland’s last drive. DraftKings opened the Jets −1.5 and closed −2.5, and 29 points finished well under a 38.5 total that never moved.

Browns 12—Jets 17

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit, and on this game it is the market’s call. The stored probability had the Jets at 58.8%, the market’s own number anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 2.5-point line, and the Jets won. The model’s own read was New York by 0.8, a 1.7-point lean toward Cleveland, tier NONE, and the Jets won by five: the lean was wrong. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds no live position here. It held two rows and both were voided before kickoff, so neither counts in either direction: a Jets moneyline, voided on 2026-10-10, and a total at the 38 rung, voided Sunday at 15:34 UTC. The final pre-kickoff board carried four PLAY rows, all on the Jets, and all four won. Allen under 2.5 catches, HIGH, YES at 46¢ (so the NO cost 54¢), closed 45.5¢: one catch. Geno Smith under 1.5 touchdown passes, MODERATE, YES at 38.5¢ (NO 61.5¢), closed 38.5¢: one, to Garrett Wilson. Smith under 9.5 rushing yards, HIGH, YES at 53¢ (NO 47¢), closed 52.5¢: five carries for seven yards. Kenyon Sadiq under 3.5 catches, HIGH, YES at 48.5¢ (NO 51.5¢), closed 43.5¢: two. Thirteen visible WATCH rows went 5-8 and are graded apart from the record, and most of the damage is one ladder: Allen under 49.5, 59.5, 69.5, 79.5 and 89.5 rushing yards lost all five rungs on 116 yards. Isaiah Williams over 2.5 and 3.5 catches lost on one, and Quinshon Judkins over 14.5 receiving yards lost on six. The wins were Allen under 14.5 receiving yards, Jerry Jeudy over 1.5 catches, Judkins over 2.5 catches and both Mason Taylor overs. No suppressed rows sat on this game.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Jets −1.5 → Jets −2.5
Total
38.5 → 38.5
Moneyline
CLE +105 / NYJ −125 → CLE +114 / NYJ −135

The spread moved toward the side that won.

How it happened

Q1

Wilson spun out of a tackle for 32, and Cleveland lost KC Concepcion on a Minkah Fitzpatrick hit

The Jets forced a three-and-out and went 80 yards in eight plays, Smith’s short throw to Wilson turning into a 32-yard touchdown. Cleveland answered with 12 plays and 67 yards, but lost Concepcion, a rookie first-round pick, on the way: Fitzpatrick was flagged for unnecessary roughness on the hit that knocked a deep ball loose at the Jets 25, and Concepcion was ruled out. Szmyt kicked a 25-yarder.

Jets opening drive
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:32 · TD
Browns reply
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:50 · FG
After one
Jets 7, Browns 3

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Szmyt made it 7-6, and Sadiq fumbled at the Cleveland 5

Szmyt’s 41-yarder early in the second quarter cut it to 7-6, and every other first-half drive ended in a punt. With just under six minutes left in the third, Sadiq caught a six-yard pass and Quincy Williams forced a fumble that Ronnie Hickman recovered at the Cleveland 7. Jason Sanders finally made it 10-6 with a 54-yarder 23 seconds into the fourth quarter, on a drive that survived an interception wiped out by an offside flag.

Halftime
Jets 7, Browns 6
Sadiq fumble
forced by Quincy Williams, recovered at CLE 7
Sanders
54-yard FG, 14:37 left in the fourth

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Watson to Boston for 29, the extra point off the upright, and a strip-sack the other way

Cleveland went 86 yards in nine plays, helped by a 14-yard pass-interference flag and a 20-yard Watson scramble, and Watson found Boston for 29 yards and a 12-10 lead with 6:15 left. Szmyt’s extra point hit the right upright. Four plays into the Jets’ reply, Carson Schwesinger sacked Smith and forced a fumble that Adin Huntington recovered in New York territory.

Go-ahead drive
9 plays · 86 yds · 4:23
Score
Browns 12, Jets 10, 6:15 left

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

A snap through the punter’s hands, Allen for 22, and McDonald’s strip-sack on fourth down

The Browns went three-and-out and Rex Sunahara’s high snap went through Bojorquez’s hands; Wallace recovered at the Cleveland 23. Three plays later Allen ran 22 yards off the left side for a 17-12 lead with 3:01 left. Cleveland’s last drive started at its own 20 with 1:41 left and no timeouts, and on fourth down McDonald sacked Watson, forced the fumble and recovered it himself.

Final
Jets 17, Browns 12
Allen
24 carries · 116 yds · 1 TD
Smith
17 of 30 · 182 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
Wilson
7 catches · 104 yds · 1 TD
Watson
15 of 33 · 155 yds · 1 TD · sacked 8 times
Bailey
3 sacks

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (the Jets moneyline was voided on 2026-10-10 and the 38-rung total on Sunday at 15:34 UTC), and grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W5_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-12/prop-reconciliation-w05-sunday.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • Concepcion was ruled out after the first-quarter hit; Todd Monken said he assumed Concepcion is in the concussion protocol, and Aaron Glenn said Sadiq is in it after his third-quarter fumble. Raheim Sanders (hip) and Tytus Howard (knee) left in the fourth quarter, per the AP. The severity of all four was not known when this was published.
  • ESPN’s summary carried no weather block; the rain is the AP’s account.
  • The AP names the defender Wilson spun away from on the opening touchdown as Ronnie Hillman; Cleveland’s box score carries Ronnie Hickman. The name is left out of the moment above.
  • The DraftKings line moved one point, from Jets −1.5 to −2.5, and the total did not move. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, and this recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game.

Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Allen has late 22-yard TD run and Jets’ defense, special teams come up big in 17-12 win over Browns

PMP · WK 5 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 11
AWAY CLE -0.9
vs NYJ -2.5
HOME NYJ -2.3
Fair (books) · NYJ 59% home win prob
Kalshi · NYJ — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 East Rutherford, NJ PASS — no position

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Browns

41%

fair value (books)

Jets

59%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

46%

Madden 27

54%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Browns at Jets

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Browns at JetsSpreadMARKET READ

Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Browns at Jets Kalshi spread ladder for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Browns–Jets spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Browns vs Jets power ratings (Week 5)

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Cleveland Browns-0.923rdAverage
    New York Jets-2.326thBelow Avg

    Browns and Jets season outlook

    CLENYJ
    Average wins8.97.4
    Make playoffs42%25%
    Win division18%8%
    Win Super Bowl1.6%1.0%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Before kickoff: Browns–Jets is a coin flip on our numbers

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 — the graded call is above.

    The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Browns rate -0.9 (23rd of 32) against -2.3 for the Jets (26th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.4-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Jets anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 3rd-closest of the 15 games in Week 5, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 7.4 wins (favored in 5 of 17) and the Browns at 8.9 (favored in 8) — 1.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Browns'.

    The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Browns grade +1.4 on that side of the ball (3rd of 32) against a Jets offense at -2.1 (28th) — 3.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Browns offense (-2.4, 29th) meets the Jets defense (-1.0, 19th), a 1.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +0.8, 3rd in the league, against +0.2 (24th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

    On the calendar, the Browns are on 10 days and the Jets are on 7 days. The Browns come in off the Steelers, the Jets off the Bears. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

    Recent history, for context only: 15 regular-season meetings since 2002, 9-6 in the Jets' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Jets won 27-20 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Jets at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jets 59%, Browns 41%. Applying our 2 points net of the book's spread floor, that makes Jets contracts a buy at 57c or below and Browns contracts a buy at 39c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Browns vs Jets on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ
    Market-implied (Jets)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Jets)
    59%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 59% for the Jets. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Browns vs Jets trades

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueJetsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig56% 56cOpen Novig →
    Polymarketno captured price for this game — international bookSign-up offer →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Browns vs Jets

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    Browns vs Jets — frequently asked

    Who won Browns vs Jets in Week 5?

    Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jets by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Jets won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Browns vs Jets before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Jets by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Browns. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Why does the model call this a toss-up?

    Because the Jets (-2.3, 26th) and Browns (-0.9, 23rd) are only 1.4 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 59%/41%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

    How do you take a position on Browns vs Jets?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 57c or below, or the Browns at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Jets host the Browns?

    Cleveland Browns visit the New York Jets on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.

    What does the model project for the Jets and Browns this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 7.4 wins (favored in 5) and the Browns at 8.9 (favored in 8). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Browns', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Browns vs Jets?

    Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Jets at 57c or below or the Browns at 39c or below, off a 1-point line.

    Could you trade Browns vs Jets on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CLENYJ has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Jets?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Jets at 52% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Jets moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 56%, an edge of +2.7 points. Model 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on NYJ — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Jets hub →Browns hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 5 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    Next up for each team

    Browns: Week 6 vs RavensModel line →Jets: Week 6 at PatriotsModel line →

    More Week 5 matchups

    Buccaneers at CowboysCowboys −9Eagles at JaguarsJaguars −3Bengals at DolphinsBengals −2Raiders at PatriotsPatriots −8Vikings at SaintsSaints −0.5Colts at SteelersSteelers −2Texans at TitansTexans −1.5Giants at CommandersCommanders −6.5Broncos at ChargersBroncos −0.5Lions at CardinalsLions −1.5Bears at PackersPackers −4.549ers at SeahawksSeahawks −4.5Ravens at FalconsFalcons −4.5Bills at RamsRams −3

    Full Week 5 board →Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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