Texans vs Chargers Prediction — Week 9, Sun Nov 8
Updated · market price
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, Kalshi implies 37% for the Chargers in Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 9 2026, while the market line has the Texans by 3.5 (62% to win) — a 0.8pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Texans by 1.0 against a market line of Texans by 3.5 — a 2.4-point lean toward the Chargers, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →
Week 9 · 2026-10-30No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
HOU
+0.5
LAC
-3.2
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 9 card free, every game priced against the market.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Texans
62%
fair value (books)
Chargers
38%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
43%
Madden 27
57%
Madden 27
Run the numbers yourself
All tools →Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL game priced against the live Kalshi line, every week — $150/yr
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Texans at Chargers How to read the Ladder →
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Share this Oracle Ladder
Texans vs Chargers power ratings (Week 9) What PWR measures →
Texans and Chargers season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Texans vs Chargers — player pages
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Texans–Chargers is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Chargers rate -3.2 (28th of 32), the Texans +0.5 (15th) — 3.7 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 47%/53%, and this rates as the 5th-closest game of the 15 in Week 9. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chargers at 4.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Texans at 7.3 (favored in 10) — 2.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Chargers' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Texans'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade -0.4 on that side of the ball (13th of 32) against a Chargers offense at -3.5 (32nd) — 3.1 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (+0.4, 16th) meets the Chargers defense (+0.2, 8th), a 0.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Texans grade +0.6, 7th in the league, against +0.1 (26th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the calendar, the Texans come off their bye and the Chargers are on 7 days. The Texans come in off the Giants, the Chargers off the Rams. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Chargers' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Texans won 20-16 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Texans at 53% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08HOULAC contract implies 37% for the Chargers against a fair value (books) of 38% — a 0.8-point gap. That is inside our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), so we pass — the market and the fair value are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Chargers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV08HOULAC
- Market-implied (Chargers)
- 37c · 37%
- Fair value — books (Chargers)
- 38%
- Fair value vs market
- +0.8pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV08HOULAC. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 37c on the Chargers is an implied 37% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 38%, a 0.8pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Texans vs Chargers line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Chargers −2.5 (DraftKings). The median across 5 books now is the Texans −3.5. On Kalshi the Texans trade at 63¢ to win, a 63% implied chance.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Chargers −2.5 · O/U 43.5Sep 13 | Texans −3.5 · O/U 42.5 | |
| FanDuel | Texans −3 · O/U 42.5Oct 27 | Texans −3.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| Caesars | Chargers −2.5 · O/U 42.5Sep 13 | Texans −3.5 · O/U 42.5 | |
| BetRivers | Texans −3 · O/U 42.5Oct 27 | Texans −3.5 · O/U 42.5 | |
| Novig | Texans −3.5 · O/U 42.5Oct 28 | Texans −3.5 · O/U 40.5 | |
| Kalshi | a contract, not a spread | Texans 63¢ to win |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.
Where Texans vs Chargers trades Why the venues differ →
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chargers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 37% 37c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 38% 38c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book | 37% 37c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 37% 37c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 37% 37c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Texans at Chargers
Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 9:12 AM ET
| Game lines | Kalshi9:12 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner9:17 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans to win | 65¢66.6¢ after fees | 64.3¢65.8¢ after fees | Even |
| Chargers to win | 39¢40.7¢ after fees | 38¢39.6¢ after fees | Polymarket US1¢ less |
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US lists 396 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first score, first touchdown, double result, exact margin, race to points).
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Embed this game on your site
A live tile locked to Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×320
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026/hero" width="560" height="320" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×340
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="340" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
MPU · ad slot · 300×250
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026/mpu" width="300" height="250" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026/leaderboard" width="728" height="90" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Embed this game’s spread ladder
A live card locked to Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×300
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026/hero" width="560" height="300" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×280
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="280" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/texans-vs-chargers-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Watch the breakdown: Texans vs Chargers
Texans vs Chargers — frequently asked
Who will win Chargers vs Texans?
The market line has the Texans at 62% to beat the Chargers in Week 9.
Who is favored in Texans vs Chargers in Week 9?
The market line has the Texans by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Chargers (our model's own line: Texans by 1). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08HOULAC market implies 37% for the Chargers — a 0.8pp agreement with the market line.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Chargers (-3.2, 28th) and Texans (+0.5, 15th) are only 3.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 38%/62%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Texans vs Chargers?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08HOULAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Chargers YES is quoted around 37c against a fair value (books) of 38%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chargers host the Texans?
Houston Texans visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, November 8, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 9, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Chargers and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 4.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Texans at 7.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Texans', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Texans vs Chargers?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV08HOULAC. The Chargers YES contract sits around 37c, which is an implied 37% — against our books-anchored fair value of 38%. That is a 0.8pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Texans vs Chargers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 9 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08HOULAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 53% on a team like the Texans?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Texans at 53% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Texans vs Chargers ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
Is Chargers moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 37%, an edge of +0.8 points. Model 38% vs market 37% on LAC. We pass — no position.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 9 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
After this one
More Week 9 matchups
Jaguars at RavensModel: Ravens −1
Bengals at FalconsModel: Bengals −2.5
Broncos at PanthersModel: Broncos −1
Cowboys at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5
Jets at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5
Lions at DolphinsModel: Lions −2.5
Browns at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5
Giants at EaglesModel: Giants −2.5
Rams at CommandersModel: Rams −2.5
Raiders at 49ersModel: 49ers −9
Packers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −3
Cardinals at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −11
Buccaneers at BearsModel: Bears −5
Bills at VikingsModel: Vikings −1Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- NFL Week 8 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 9 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 7 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket US → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Game-winner, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or game-winner price into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale