Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Bears

46%

model win prob

Panthers

54%

model win prob

Model line

Panthers −1.5

Kalshi (Panthers)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Panthers — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Chicago Bears+0.711thAverage

Carolina Panthers-0.518thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 1, the Chicago Bears travel to face the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Panthers 18th of 32 (Average tier, -0.5) and the Bears 11th (Average tier, +0.7). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Panthers by 1.5 — a 54% win probability for the Panthers.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 54% (Panthers) / 46% (Bears) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bears vs Panthers — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bears vs Panthers in Week 1?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Panthers by 1.5 points and gives them a 54% win probability over the Bears. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bears vs Panthers?

Home win probability 54% (Panthers), away 46% (Bears). That comes from a power-rating differential of -1.1 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Panthers rate 18th of 32 (Average tier), the Bears 11th (Average tier).

Can you trade Bears vs Panthers on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.