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Home/NFL/Week 1/Bears vs Panthers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 1 · 2026

Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37

Updated · market price

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Bears by 0.5 (51% to win); the Bears won, so that call hit. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

Settled

Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game model had the Bears by 0.5 (51% to win). The Bears won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Bears: 0c — we archived the Bears at 60c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 60c on Sep 12. The market did not move on our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board

Week 1 · 2026-09-15

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Bears moneylineModel 51% vs market 50% on CHI.50c51%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Chicago 59, Carolina 37: ninety-six points, and a closing total of 47.5

The highest-scoring game of the Week 1 Sunday slate, and nobody priced it. Chicago ran for 291 yards on a defense that had no answer for anything, Caleb Williams scored twice with his legs before halftime, and the two teams combined to go 8-for-8 in the red zone. The number that ages worst is not the spread. It is the total.

Bears 59—Panthers 37

Final✓ Call hit

Two different calls resolved two different ways here and the page shows both, so they should not be blurred. The derived grade above runs our stored pre-game probability against the final score: the model had Carolina at 49.2% — a hair on Chicago — and Chicago won, so the directional read held. The published position did not. Our edge engine had Carolina at 49.2% against a Kalshi price of 39.5c, called that a 9.7-point gap, tiered it HIGH, and published Carolina at 40.5c. Carolina lost by twenty-two. It closed at 39.5c, so the market never came to us either: minus one cent of closing-line value on a position that was wrong on the field. That is the honest shape of it — the model pointed at the right team and the position pointed at the other one, because a position is a disagreement with a price and not a prediction of a winner. The deeper miss is the total. The line opened 44.5 and closed 47.5, three full points of movement toward scoring, and the game still cleared it by more than forty-eight. We published no total on this game. There is nothing to grade and nothing to defend, which is its own kind of finding: the single largest pricing error on the slate happened in a market we were not in.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Bears −2.5 → Bears −3
Total
44.5 → 47.5
Moneyline
CHI −135 / CAR +114 → CHI −166 / CAR +140

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 3 to 47.5; the game landed on 96.

How it happened

Q2

Caleb Williams outran the game plan

Williams scored on a nine-yard run in the first quarter and a twenty-nine-yard run with twenty-two seconds left in the half, the second one turning a tie into a 31-24 lead at the break. He finished with ten carries for sixty-five yards and two scores on the ground on top of 269 through the air. The rushing line is the one nobody had: our board carried a MODERATE UNDER on Williams at 19.5 rushing yards.

Williams rushing
10 carries, 65 yards, 2 TD
Williams passing
21/29, 269 yards, 2 TD, 124.1 rating
Halftime
Chicago 31, Carolina 24

ESPN box score — Bears at Panthers

Q3

Two hundred ninety-one rushing yards, and the game broke open in forty seconds

Carolina tied it at 31 early in the third. Chicago answered with a one-yard D’Andre Swift score and then, with forty seconds left in the quarter, a sixty-one-yard run by Kyle Monangai. Two backs cleared a hundred yards in the same game — Swift on eighteen carries, Monangai on ten at ten yards a carry — and Chicago finished at 7.9 yards per play.

Chicago rushing
291 yards
Swift
18 carries, 124 yards, 3 TD
Monangai
10 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD (61 long)

ESPN box score — Bears at Panthers

Q4

Eight red-zone trips, eight touchdowns

Neither defense stopped anything inside the twenty. Chicago went four-for-four, Carolina went four-for-four, and the two teams scored fifteen times between them. Bryce Young threw for 361 yards and three touchdowns in a loss by twenty-two, which is the sort of line that only happens when the game has stopped being a contest and started being a track meet.

Red zone
Chicago 4-4, Carolina 4-4
Young
23/37, 361 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
Combined points
96 on a 47.5 closing total

ESPN box score — Bears at Panthers

Q4

Carolina turned it over three times and still scored 37

Tetairoa McMillan and Jimmy Horn Jr. each lost a fumble and Malik Muhammad II intercepted Young. Carolina was minus-two on the day and lost time of possession by more than eight minutes. Jalen Coker caught eight for 138 and two scores and it did not matter, because the Panthers never got a stop.

Turnovers
Carolina 3, Chicago 1
Time of possession
Chicago 34:03, Carolina 25:57
Coker
8 receptions, 138 yards, 2 TD

ESPN box score — Bears at Panthers

What this recap does not know

  • The Kalshi position on Carolina (entry 40.5c, close 39.5c, CLV -1c, tier HIGH) is read from nfl_weekly_edges, where result and pnl_cents were still null at publication — grading runs Tue/Wed on a launchd schedule. The loss stated above is derived from the final score, not from the ledger. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • Player-prop calls from run 2026w01-20260912T222210Z-121a58 are not graded in this entry. The surfaceable Chicago and Carolina strikes are named in the handoff; several are pass_yds, a suppressed stat that the board never displayed and that therefore does not count either way.
  • No total or spread position was published on this game, so the three-point total move and the ninety-six points are described, not graded.
  • Every fact in this recap comes from one source, the ESPN box score and scoring summary. A second independent source was not obtained before publication.
  • This recap does not know what Kalshi did in-game. The archived pre-kickoff price is the last one we hold.

Reporting verified 2026-09-13. Further sources: ESPN box score — Bears at Panthers · ESPN game page — Bears at Panthers · ESPN — Bears call 59-point opener amazing as offense makes statement · ESPN — Week 1 highlights: best plays, moments, touchdowns

The trench read: what decides Bears–Panthers in Charlotte

Carolina opens the season without either of its projected starting tackles. Chicago brings back the offensive line that led the league in pass protection, intact. On paper that is lopsided — but Chicago's own pass rush was bottom-three a year ago, Bryce Young has never won a regular-season opener, and the market sits a long way from our number on the moneyline. The board above already says which side; this is why.

Panthers offensive line · Bears pass rush

A patchwork Panthers tackle pair

Edge: Bears

Carolina is missing both projected starting tackles. Right tackle Taylor Moton is on the non-football-injury list after a blood clot was found in his lung in June, and left tackle Ikem Ekwonu is on the physically-unable-to-perform list recovering from a torn patellar tendon. In their place: free-agent signing Rasheed Walker, formerly of Green Bay, at left tackle, and first-round rookie Monroe Freeling — a college left tackle — making his first NFL start on the right side.

Taylor Moton
NFI list — blood clot
Ikem Ekwonu
PUP list — patellar tendon
Monroe Freeling
rookie, first NFL start, at RT

Source: Panthers.com — offseason moves on the offensive line

Bears offensive line · Panthers defensive line

Chicago's line strength meets Carolina's rebuilding front

Edge: Bears

Chicago returns Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson and Darnell Wright on a line that led the NFL in pass-block win rate and graded fifth in run blocking last season. Carolina's front got younger and thinner in one stroke: free-agent tackle Tershawn Wharton went down for neck surgery, and second-round rookie Lee Hunter is now the first-string defensive tackle.

CHI pass-block win rate, 2025
73.6% — 1st
CHI run-block rank, 2025
5th
CAR first-string DT
Lee Hunter, rookie

Source: Bleacher Nation — Bears offensive line

Bears left tackle · Panthers edge

Braxton Jones vs Jaelan Phillips — the swing matchup

Close to even

Jones protects Caleb Williams' blind side while still working back from a December 2024 injury. Carolina answered a bottom-three pass rush with a $120M signing in Phillips, who finished fourth among qualified rushers in pressure rate last season. Beat writers on both sides flag this specific pairing as the one spot that could swing an otherwise lopsided line matchup. It is not a settled read either way.

Phillips contract
$120M
Phillips pressure rate, 2025
4th among qualifiers

Source: SI — four matchups that will make or break the Bears in Week 1

Bears CB1 · Panthers WR1

Jaylon Johnson vs Tetairoa McMillan

Edge: Bears

Johnson is a two-time Pro Bowler reported fully healthy after a 2025 groin issue; McMillan was last season's Offensive Rookie of the Year. If Johnson travels with McMillan on the boundary, it is Chicago's cleanest individual matchup on the field. When McMillan moves into the slot, the assignment likely shifts to Cam Lewis — a real question that analysts have raised without a confirmed answer.

Johnson
2x Pro Bowl, healthy
McMillan
2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year

Source: SI — four matchups that will make or break the Bears in Week 1

Panthers CB1 · Bears receivers

Jaycee Horn vs Chicago's WR1-by-default

Edge: Panthers

Rome Odunze is questionable with a calf injury, which would make Luther Burden III Chicago's top receiver by default — straight into a two-time Pro Bowl corner. Horn has allowed well under seven yards per target and a sub-80 passer rating for his career. This is Carolina's best individual defensive matchup in the game, and not a place Chicago's passing attack should expect an easy afternoon.

Horn yards per target allowed, career
6.6
Horn opposing passer rating, career
76.8
Odunze (calf)
questionable — limited all week

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Panthers defense

Bears run offense · Panthers run defense

Chicago's ground game vs Carolina's leaky front

Edge: Bears

Carolina was a bottom-third run defense a year ago and one of the worst in the league at yards allowed before contact, even with Derrick Brown anchoring the interior. D'Andre Swift cramped in Thursday's heat but is off the final injury report, and he runs behind a line that graded third in rushing DVOA last season. This is the single cleanest statistical edge in the game in either direction.

CAR yards per carry allowed, 2025
4.6 — 24th
CAR yards before contact allowed, 2025
31st
CHI run-block rank, 2025
5th

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Panthers defense

Panthers run offense · Bears run defense

Carolina's banged-up backfield vs Chicago's own soft run defense

Close to even

Chuba Hubbard strained a hamstring in camp and did not play in the preseason; Jonathon Brooks, back from a torn ACL, is a full participant and likely to see early work in what looks like a committee. The defense that should benefit is one that gave up the fourth-most yards before contact per carry in the league last season, which makes this a spot that can go either way rather than a clean Bears advantage.

Hubbard
hamstring — no preseason snaps
CHI yards before contact allowed per carry, 2025
4.8 — 30th

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Bears defense

Panthers QB

Bryce Young has never won a regular-season opener

Edge: Bears

Young is winless in three career openers, with a completion rate under fifty percent and far more interceptions than touchdowns across them. This offseason he worked specifically on pre-snap mechanics — motion timing, faster alignment, quicker reads — with head coach Dave Canales, who said that is where Young showed his most visible growth in the preseason. Whether it shows up Sunday is unknowable in advance; it is the single biggest swing variable in the game.

Young in career openers
0–3 · 44.2 rating · 2 TD, 6 INT
Contract
final year of rookie deal, no extension

Source: Panthers.com — for Bryce Young, a faster start begins before the snap

Bears tight end · Panthers linebacker

Colston Loveland vs Devin Lloyd

Edge: Bears

Loveland closed his rookie season with more than four hundred receiving yards over his final six games. Carolina responded with a real linebacker signing in Lloyd, who is coming off a breakout year — but analysts flag this as the spot that can get away from Carolina fast if Lloyd cannot carry Loveland in coverage.

Loveland, final 6 games of 2025
29 rec · 409 yds

Source: SI — four matchups that will make or break the Bears in Week 1

What this read does not know

  • Chicago's final report (Sept 11) lists four players as questionable: Rome Odunze (calf, limited all three days), Tyson Bagent (back, did not practice), Ozzy Trapilo (knee) and Xavier Woods (groin). D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai and Luther Burden III are not on it. Carolina's final designations were not captured; Moton and Ekwonu are on reserve lists, which are not week-to-week calls.
  • Cornerback-to-receiver shadow assignments, especially where McMillan lines up in the slot, are informed projection rather than a coaching-staff statement.
  • Whether Bryce Young's offseason mechanical work translates to live reps cannot be known before the snap. It is flagged as the swing variable, not predicted.
  • Our own prop model is under a publication block for pass-yards and receiving-yards legs this week — the passing and receiving sides of the same run do not reconcile. No projection-based passing or receiving call appears anywhere in this read for that reason.

Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: Chicago Bears — Odunze among four questionable for Sunday · Yahoo Sports — Bears unofficial depth chart · Panthers.com — depth chart · Bleacher Nation — Panthers injury report · SI — Bears vs Panthers odds, injuries and trends · Fox News — Chuba Hubbard hamstring

PMP · WK 1 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 13
AWAY CHI +1.4
vs CHI -0.5
HOME CAR -1.8
Model · CAR 49% home win prob
Kalshi · CAR 50¢ yes mid
Edge -0.8pp model − market
📍 Charlotte, NC PASS — no edge

Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.

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Bears

51%

model win prob

Panthers

49%

model win prob

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

57%

Madden 27

43%

Madden 27

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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

The Ladder — Bears at Panthers

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Bears at PanthersSpreadONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%Panthers −0.5Panthers −4.5Panthers −14.5KALSHIPMP MODEL
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
—
Kalshi · P(YES)
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

RungMarketModelGap
Panthers −0.5—🔒—not listed
Panthers −1.5—🔒—not listed
Panthers −2.5—🔒—not listed
Panthers −3.5—🔒—not listed
Panthers −4.5—🔒—not listed
Panthers −6.5—outside range—not listed
5 more rungsPanthers −7.5 → Panthers −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
Panthers −7.5—outside range—not listed
Panthers −9.5—outside range—not listed
Panthers −10.5—outside range—not listed
Panthers −13.5—outside range—not listed
Panthers −14.5—outside range—not listed

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier
Chicago Bears+1.410thPlayoff
Carolina Panthers-1.824thAverage

Season outlook

CHICAR
Average wins9.37.2
Make playoffs51%28%
Win division27%20%
Win Super Bowl3.8%1.1%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

Bears–Panthers is a coin flip on our numbers

There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Panthers rate -1.8 (24th of 32), the Bears +1.4 (10th) — 3.2 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 49%/51%, and this rates as the 4th-closest game of the 16 in Week 1. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Panthers at 7.6 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Bears at 8.8 (favored in 11) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Panthers' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Bears'.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +2.0 (8th of 32) against a Panthers defense at -1.7 (22nd) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Panthers offense (-0.8, 23rd) meets the Bears defense (-1.1, 19th), a 0.3-point gap.

One team has owned this series: the Bears are 8-3 in 11 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Bears won 36-10 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Panthers are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Carolina home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 83°F and the median wind 4 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Bears at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CHICAR contract implies 50% for the Panthers against our 49% — a 0.8-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Panthers as the value side.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bears vs Panthers on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CHICAR
Market-implied (Panthers)
50c · 50%
Our model (Panthers)
49%
Model vs market
-0.8pp

This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 49% for the Panthers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Where Bears vs Panthers trades

2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenuePanthersTrade
Kalshi50% 50cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig40% 40cOpen Novig →
Polymarketno captured price for this game — international bookSign-up offer →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract50% 50cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract50% 50cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Bears vs Panthers — frequently asked

Who won Bears vs Panthers in Week 1?

Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had the Bears by 0.5 (51% to win), and the Bears won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

Who did the model favor in Bears vs Panthers before kickoff?

Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Bears by 0.5 points, a 51% win probability over the Panthers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CHICAR market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

Why does the model call this a toss-up?

Because the Panthers (-1.8, 24th) and Bears (+1.4, 10th) are only 3.2 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 49%/51%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

How do you take a position on Bears vs Panthers?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CHICAR on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Panthers YES is quoted around 50c against our 49% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Panthers host the Bears?

Chicago Bears visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC.

What does the model project for the Panthers and Bears this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Panthers at 7.6 wins (favored in 4) and the Bears at 8.8 (favored in 11). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Panthers' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Bears', by model win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Bears vs Panthers?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CHICAR. The Panthers YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 49%. That is a 0.8pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Could you trade Bears vs Panthers on Kalshi?

This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CHICAR has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Bears?

52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Bears at 51% over the Panthers sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Is Bears moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 51% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +0.8 points. Model 51% vs market 50% on CHI. We pass — no position.

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More Week 1 matchups

Patriots at SeahawksSeahawks −2.5
49ers at RamsRams −4
Buccaneers at BengalsBengals −2.5
Saints at LionsLions −7.5
Bills at TexansTexans −0.5
Ravens at ColtsColts −1.5
Browns at JaguarsJaguars −7.5
Falcons at SteelersSteelers −2.5
Jets at TitansTitans −3
Cardinals at ChargersChargers −5.5
Dolphins at Raiderseven
Packers at VikingsPackers −3
Commanders at EaglesEagles −6.5
Cowboys at Giantseven
Broncos at ChiefsChiefs −0.5

Full Week 1 board →Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →

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