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Home/NFL/Week 8/Raiders vs Jets
Gridiron EdgeWeek 8 · 2026

Raiders vs Jets Prediction — Week 8, Sun Nov 1

Updated · market price

Week 8 game-week updates

  • · Kalshi: Jets 53¢ to win, −15¢ since the market opened October 20, 2026.

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Quick Answer

As of October 30, 2026, Kalshi implies 53% for the Jets in Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets, NFL Week 8 2026, while the market line has the Jets by 1.5 (55% to win) — a 2.8pp gap. Value side: the Jets. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Jets by 4.0 against a market line of Jets by 1.5 — a 2.4-point lean toward the Jets, graded separately from any position.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 8 · 2026-10-30

1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 2.8pp on Jets moneyline.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Jets moneylineModel 55% vs market 53% on NYJ.Market-anchored fair value: NYJ 55% (+2.2pp)52.5c55%Position1.5%

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Cousins leads the league in touchdown passes, but the Jets’ run game is the one that could finally get healthy

Las Vegas is 3-4 after a 3-0 start and has lost four straight, with a defense that has allowed 6.5 yards per play over the streak. New York is 2-5 after a 28-25 loss to previously winless Miami, with four of its five losses decided by one score or less. Kirk Cousins leads the league with 16 touchdown passes, while Geno Smith is completing 70 percent of his throws. The game turns on Cousins against a Jets pass defense missing edge rushers, and on whether Breece Hall and Dylan Parham return against a run defense that cannot stop anyone. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate.

Injury report · Both teams

Quarterback gate and the Wednesday practice picture

Edge: Raiders

QB gate: PASS. Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith appear on neither Wednesday report. The Jets have the heavier list. Rookie edge David Bailey (groin) did not practice and is being monitored, edge Joseph Ossai (ankle) and defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat (knee) are week-to-week, and offensive lineman Max Mitchell is in the concussion protocol. Running back Breece Hall (quad), running back Braelon Allen (ankle) and guard Dylan Parham (knee) were limited, and Hall and Parham have missed three games. Las Vegas is mostly limited rather than out: tight end Brock Bowers (calf), tackle DJ Glaze (ankle) and linebacker Quay Walker (chest) were limited, with defensive end Patrick Johnson (stinger) the lone non-participant.

Cousins / Smith
Neither on the Wednesday report — Raiders.com, 2026-10-28
Jets did not practice
Bailey (groin), Ossai (ankle), Sweat (knee), Mitchell (concussion) plus Davis and Phillips rest — Raiders.com and Jets.com, 2026-10-28
Jets limited
Hall (quad), Allen (ankle), Parham (knee) — Jets.com, 2026-10-28
Raiders limited
Bowers (calf), Glaze (ankle), Walker (chest), Fatukasi, Thomas, Paye (rest) — Raiders.com, 2026-10-28
Raiders did not practice
Patrick Johnson (stinger); TE Carter Runyon full after IR — Raiders.com, 2026-10-28

Source: Raiders.com — Raiders-Jets Week 8 injury report (2026-10-28)

Raiders passing offense · Jets pass rush and secondary

Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers against a Jets defense that gets home but is thin up front

Close to even

Cousins leads the league with 16 passing touchdowns and is third with 1,877 yards, and the Raiders have scored 56 fourth-quarter points during the four-game skid. The Jets bring the sturdier defense on paper: 4.9 yards per play allowed (fifth), the fifth-fewest passing yards allowed and 19 sacks as a team. David Bailey leads that pressure with 5.5 sacks, nine quarterback hits and three forced fumbles, but he did not practice Wednesday and Ossai and Sweat are week-to-week, so the front could be short. Bowers has 455 yards in five games and is limited with a calf injury. The Jets have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of their last six games, so Cousins will get chances if Bailey is missing.

Kirk Cousins
16 TD (league lead), 1,877 yards (third) through seven games — Sharp Football, 2026-10-28
Jets defense
4.9 yards per play allowed (5th); multiple passing TDs allowed in 4 of last 6 — Sharp Football, 2026-10-28
Jets pass rush
19 sacks; David Bailey 5.5 sacks, 9 QB hits, 3 forced fumbles — BVM Sports, 2026-10-28
Raiders fourth quarters
56 points during the four-game losing streak — amNY, 2026-10-28
Brock Bowers
455 receiving yards in five games — amNY, 2026-10-28

Source: BVM Sports — Raiders vs. Jets Week 8 preview: Geno Smith, David Bailey lead NY (2026-10-28)

Jets rushing offense and Geno Smith · Raiders run defense

A possible Breece Hall return against a Raiders run defense in free fall

Edge: Jets

The Raiders have allowed 140.6 rushing yards a game and 6.5 yards per play during the losing streak, the highest mark in football over that stretch, and rank 30th against the run. That is the opening for a Jets offense that has had Hall and Parham on the sideline for three games. Allen has run well in Hall’s absence, and Smith is completing 70 percent of his passes at 7.8 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns, having thrown for 287 yards and three touchdowns against Miami. The caveat is finishing: the Jets convert just 45 percent of red-zone trips into touchdowns (31st), only a touch behind the Raiders’ 46.4 percent (29th). Jets opponents have also run on 48.3 percent of plays, so New York’s defense is not immune.

Raiders run defense
140.6 rush yards per game and 6.5 yards per play during the four-game skid; 30th vs. the run — amNY and BVM Sports, 2026-10-28
Geno Smith
1,623 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT, 70% completions through seven games — BVM Sports, 2026-10-28
Smith vs. Miami
23 of 30, 287 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT in the 28-25 loss — NBC Sports, 2026-10-25
Red-zone TD rate
Jets 45% (31st), Raiders 46.4% (29th) — Sharp Football, 2026-10-28
Hall and Parham
Limited Wednesday after missing three games — Jets.com, 2026-10-28

Source: amNY — Jets vs. Raiders Week 8 preview: Can Gang Green stop the bleeding? (2026-10-28)

What this read does not know

  • Wednesday designations only. The Raiders and Jets reports showed Wednesday participation with Thursday, Friday and game-status tags blank, and several Jets players (Davis, Phillips) are rest days rather than injuries. (https://www.raiders.com/news/las-vegas-raiders-new-york-jets-week-8-injury-report)
  • Whether Breece Hall and Dylan Parham actually play. Both were limited after three missed games, and one preview said Hall may still be unable to go. Who handles the carries is unconfirmed. (https://www.amny.com/sports/jets-raiders-w8-pre-10-28-26/)
  • David Bailey’s status. The groin injury lingered from Monday and the team says it will monitor him; without him and Ossai, the Jets’ pass rush is largely unmeasured. (https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/jnjury-update-jets-rookie-edge-david-bailey-groin-ailment-10-28-2026)
  • Raiders pass protection and Maxx Crosby’s 2026 production. We could not retrieve a game review from the Raiders’ Week 7 loss and found no sack, pressure or line-grade figures for Las Vegas on either side. (https://bvmsports.com/2026/10/28/raiders-vs-jets-week-8-preview-geno-smith-david-bailey-lead-ny/)
  • The Raiders’ road form. Previews disagree: one says Las Vegas won its first two road games before a loss in New England, another calls it a four-game road losing streak. We did not resolve this. (https://www.amny.com/sports/jets-raiders-w8-pre-10-28-26/)

Reporting verified 2026-10-29. Further sources: Raiders.com — Raiders-Jets Week 8 injury report (2026-10-28) · Jets.com — Rookie edge David Bailey has a groin injury; T’Vondre Sweat week-to-week (2026-10-28) · Just Blog Baby — Raiders can’t be lulled to sleep by the Jets’ loaded initial injury report (2026-10-29) · Sharp Football Analysis — Raiders vs. Jets Week 8 worksheet (2026-10-28) · BVM Sports — Raiders vs. Jets Week 8 preview: Geno Smith, David Bailey lead NY (2026-10-28) · amNY — Jets vs. Raiders Week 8 preview: Can Gang Green stop the bleeding? (2026-10-28) · NBC Sports — Geno throws for 287 and three TDs in Week 7 loss (2026-10-25)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

Raiders vs Jets: where the prop prices are How prop price gaps work →

The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.

No Kalshi strike in this game is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.

Raiders vs Jets: where the prop prices are — Kalshi mid vs sportsbook consensus per strike, widest gap first
PlayerPropKalshiConsensusGapBest price
Brock Bowers7+ rec40.0¢42.9%4bk-2.9¢over · Kalshi 42.7¢under · DK 59.5¢
Adonai Mitchell25+ rec yds50.5¢48.0%2bk+2.5¢over · ESPN Bet 48.8¢under · Kalshi 52.8¢
Adonai Mitchell3+ rec34.5¢36.8%3bk-2.3¢over · Novig 37.5¢under · Novig 67¢
Michael Mayer3+ rec56.5¢58.1%5bk-1.6¢over · Novig 57.1¢under · Novig 44.1¢
Brock Bowers6+ rec56.5¢55.3%3bk+1.2¢over · FD 56.1¢under · Novig 44.1¢
Mike Washington30+ rush yds52.5¢51.4%4bk+1.1¢over · Novig 51.9¢under · Novig 50¢
Ashton Jeanty4+ rec51.0¢51.9%5bk-0.9¢over · Novig 53.1¢under · Novig 49.5¢
Ashton Jeanty50+ rush yds49.5¢50.0%5bk-0.5¢over · Novig 50¢under · Novig 51.9¢

Raiders vs Jets player props — every Kalshi strike vs the books →+ 202 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.

PMP · WK 8 POSITION
Sun, Nov 1
AWAY LV -4.2
vs NYJ -1.5
HOME NYJ -2.7
Fair (books) · NYJ 55% home win prob
Kalshi · NYJ 53¢ yes mid
Edge +2.8pp fair − Kalshi
📍 East Rutherford, NJ BUY NYJ
Fair value (books) says Jets at 53c or better — 2.8pp above the market.Take the position on Kalshi →

Raiders

45%

fair value (books)

Jets

55%

fair value (books)

Market-anchored fair value: NYJ 55% (+2.2pp) Combo Edge Builder →

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

53%

Madden 27

47%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

All tools →
Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

The Ladder — Raiders at Jets How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Raiders at JetsSpreadPRICEDView Jets −1.5 on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices Jets −1.5 at 50¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Headline rung · Jets −6.5
YES 30¢NO 71¢
pays 3.3x · books — · Oracle 🔒

Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Share this Oracle Ladder

Raiders at Jets Kalshi spread ladder for Week 8: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
The Raiders–Jets spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Raiders vs Jets power ratings (Week 8) What PWR measures →

TeamRatingRankTier
Las Vegas Raiders-4.229thBelow Avg
New York Jets-2.727thBelow Avg

Raiders and Jets season outlook

LVNYJ
Average wins6.96.3
Make playoffs12%10%
Win division3%3%
Win Super Bowl0.3%0.5%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

Raiders vs Jets — player pages

All players →

Ashton Jeanty

RB

Brock Bowers

TE

Breece Hall

RB

Garrett Wilson

WR

Kenyon Sadiq

TE

Omar Cooper Jr.

WR

Jalen Nailor

WR

Tre Tucker

WR

Geno Smith

QB

Mike Washington Jr.

RB

Braelon Allen

RB

Adonai Mitchell

Michael Mayer

Kirk Cousins

Cody White

Connor Heyward

Dont'e Thornton Jr.

LV Raiders D/ST

Mason Taylor

NY Jets D/ST

One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

What the model sees in Raiders at Jets

How this read is built →

The Raiders travel to face the Jets in Week 8. Our power ratings put the Jets 27th of 32 at -2.7 (Below Avg tier) and the Raiders 29th at -4.2 (Below Avg tier) — a 1.5-point gap that home field widens to a 4-point line on the Jets, 61% to win. It rates as the 7th-widest of the 14 games in Week 8.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jets offense grades -1.4 (28th of 32) against a Raiders defense at -3.1 (29th) — 1.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-1.3, 27th) meets the Jets defense (-2.0, 25th), a 0.8-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +0.7, 5th in the league, against +0.1 (24th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.3 projected wins for the Jets against 6.9 for the Raiders, favored in 3 and 3 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Raiders'.

The series is dead level: 7-7 across 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 4 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Raiders won 16-12 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.

Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 11 New York home games in November since 2015, the median temperature was 54°F and the median wind 8 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 61% on the Jets here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ contract implies 53% for the Jets against a fair value (books) of 55% — a 2.8-point gap. That clears our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), which flags the Jets as the value side at 53c.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Raiders vs Jets on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ
Market-implied (Jets)
53c · 53%
Fair value — books (Jets)
55%
Fair value vs market
+2.8pp

Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 53c on the Jets is an implied 53% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 55%, a 2.8pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Raiders vs Jets line history

The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Jets −1.5 (DraftKings). The median across 9 books now is the Jets −1.5. On Kalshi the Jets trade at 53¢ to win, a 53% implied chance.

BookEarliest line we archivedNowSpread trend
DraftKingsJets −1.5 · O/U 40.5Sep 13Jets −1.5 · O/U 45.5
FanDuelJets −1.5 · O/U 43.5Oct 20Jets −1.5 · O/U 45.5
BetMGMJets −1 · O/U 44.5Oct 26Jets −1.5 · O/U 45.5
CaesarsJets −1.5 · O/U 41.5Sep 13Jets −1.5 · O/U 45.5
BetRiversJets −1.5 · O/U 43.5Oct 20Jets −1.5 · O/U 45.5
ESPN BETJets −1.5 · O/U 44.5Oct 26Jets −1.5 · O/U 46.5
FanaticsJets −1 · O/U 44.5Oct 26Jets −1.5 · O/U 46
NovigJets −1.5 · O/U 43.5Oct 20Jets −1.5 · O/U 45.5
ProphetXJets −1.5 · O/U 44.5Oct 26Jets −1.5 · O/U 45.5
Kalshia contract, not a spreadJets 53¢ to win

Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.

Where Raiders vs Jets trades Why the venues differ →

3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenueJetsTrade
Kalshi53% 53cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig54% 54cOpen Novig →
Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book53% 53cOpen Polymarket US →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract53% 53cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract53% 53cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Raiders at Jets

Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 1:10 PM ET

Game linesKalshi1:10 PM ETPolymarket USPolymarketPartner2:13 PM ETBest price
Raiders to win47¢48.7¢ after fees47¢48.7¢ after feesEven
Jets to win53¢54.7¢ after fees53.3¢55¢ after feesEven
Jets −1.550¢51.8¢ after fees50.5¢52.2¢ after feesEven
Over 45.551¢52.7¢ after fees51¢52.7¢ after feesEven
Player props on both venues
Garrett Wilson 60+ rec ydsno current price58¢59.7¢ after fees—
Garrett Wilson 6+ receptionsno current price48¢49.7¢ after fees—
Garrett Wilson 50+ rec ydsno current price67¢68.5¢ after fees—
Mike Washington Jr. 30+ rush ydsno current price55¢56.7¢ after fees—
Cody White 2+ TDsno current priceno two-sided book—
Geno Smith 2+ TDsno current priceno two-sided book—
Dont'e Thornton Jr. 2+ TDsno current priceno two-sided book—
Garrett Wilson 5+ receptionsno current price67¢68.5¢ after fees—
This game on Kalshi →This game on Polymarket US →

Sponsored by Polymarket US

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Polymarket US lists 456 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first score, first touchdown, double result, exact margin, race to points).

Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.

Kalshi vs Novig on this game — New York Jets to win: Kalshi 54.7¢ (ask + fee) · Novig 54.0¢ (no fee pregame) · Novig 0.7¢ cheaper (both books as of 1:44 PM ET). Every game → · NFL on Novig · Trade on Novig →

Raiders vs Jets player prop ladders How to read a prop ladder →

All ladders →

Every Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.

Brock BowersReceptionsMARKET READView 6+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 6+ rec at 56¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 6+ rec
YES 57¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 7+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 61¢, the books imply 57¢ — 2.9 points below the book read.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →
Adonai MitchellReceptionsMARKET READView 3+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 3+ rec at 35¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 3+ rec
YES 36¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 3+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 67¢, the books imply 63¢ — 2.3 points below the book read.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →
Michael MayerReceptionsMARKET READView 3+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 3+ rec at 56¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 3+ rec
YES 57¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 3+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 44¢, the books imply 42¢ — 1.6 points below the book read.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →
Ashton JeantyReceptionsMARKET READView 4+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 4+ rec at 51¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 4+ rec
YES 52¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 50¢, the books imply 48¢ — 0.9 points below the book read.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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Watch the breakdown: Raiders vs Jets

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Raiders vs Jets — frequently asked

Who will win Jets vs Raiders?

The market line has the Jets at 55% to beat the Raiders in Week 8.

Who is favored in Raiders vs Jets in Week 8?

The market line has the Jets by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability over the Raiders (our model's own line: Jets by 4). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ market implies 53% for the Jets — a 2.8pp gap versus the market line.

What is the biggest mismatch in Raiders vs Jets?

Jets offense (-1.4, 28th of 32) against Raiders defense (-3.1, 29th) — 1.7 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Jets (+0.7, 5th).

How do you take a position on Raiders vs Jets?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Jets YES is quoted around 53c against a fair value (books) of 55%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Jets host the Raiders?

Las Vegas Raiders visit the New York Jets on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.

What does the model project for the Jets and Raiders this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.3 wins (favored in 3) and the Raiders at 6.9 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Raiders', by win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Jets?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ. The Jets YES contract sits around 53c, which is an implied 53% — against our books-anchored fair value of 55%. That is a 2.8pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Can you trade Raiders vs Jets on Kalshi?

Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

How often does the model win when it is 61% on a team like the Jets?

59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Jets at 61% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

What happens on Kalshi if Raiders vs Jets ends in a tie?

Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.

Is Jets moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 55% against a market price implying 53%, an edge of +2.8 points. Model 55% vs market 53% on NYJ. We rate it a position, sized at 1.5% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.

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After this one

Raiders: Week 9 at 49ersModel line →Jets: Week 9 at ChiefsModel line →

More Week 8 matchups

Panthers at PackersModel: Packers −5Ravens at BillsModel: Bills −3.5Titans at BengalsModel: Bengals −9.5Cardinals at CowboysModel: Cowboys −6.5Vikings at LionsModel: Lions −2.5Colts at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −7Browns at SteelersModel: Steelers −3Falcons at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −3.5Chargers at RamsModel: Rams −8.5Chiefs at BroncosModel: Broncos −4Patriots at DolphinsModel: Patriots −5Eagles at CommandersModel: Commanders −7Bears at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −3.5

Full Week 8 board →Next: NFL Week 9 predictions →

Same model, inside your AI agent

The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

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