Gridiron EdgeWeek 8 · 2026

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets

Updated October 14, 2026 · model ratings

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Quick Answer

As of October 14, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Jets by 3.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets, NFL Week 8 2026 — 59% to win, and Jets 26th of 32, Raiders 29th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 54c or below (or Raiders at 36c or below) is where the model would take a position.

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PMP · WK 8 MARKET PENDING

Sun, Nov 1

AWAY

LV -3.2

vs NYJ -3.5

HOME

NYJ -2.3

Model · NYJ 59% home win prob

Kalshi · NYJ — yes mid

Edge — model − market

📍 East Rutherford, NJ MARKET PENDING

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Raiders

41%

our model

Jets

59%

our model

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

53%

Madden 27

47%

Madden 27

KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 54c or below, or the Raiders at 36c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.

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The Ladder — Raiders at Jets

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Raiders at JetsSpreadMARKET READ

Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.

StrikeKalshi YES · 0–100¢Take itBooksGap

Market

—

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Legend

Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.

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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Raiders at Jets Kalshi spread ladder for Week 8: the Kalshi price at every spread strike — The Raiders–Jets spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Raiders vs Jets power ratings (Week 8)

TeamRatingRankTier

Las Vegas Raiders-3.229thBelow Avg

New York Jets-2.326thBelow Avg

Raiders and Jets season outlook

LVNYJ

Average wins7.87.4

Make playoffs26%25%

Win division11%8%

Win Super Bowl0.7%1.0%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

What the model sees in Raiders at Jets

The Raiders travel to face the Jets in Week 8. Our power ratings put the Jets 26th of 32 at -2.3 (Below Avg tier) and the Raiders 29th at -3.2 (Below Avg tier) — a 0.9-point gap that home field widens to a 3.5-point line on the Jets, 59% to win. It rates as the 9th-widest of the 14 games in Week 8.

No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Jets grade -2.1 on offense (28th of 32) and -1.0 on defense (19th); the Raiders -1.3 (25th) and -2.0 (26th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field, though special teams does tilt to the Jets (+0.8, 3rd).

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.4 projected wins for the Jets against 7.8 for the Raiders, favored in 5 and 3 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Raiders'.

The series is dead level: 7-7 across 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 4 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Raiders won 16-12 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.

Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 11 New York home games in November since 2015, the median temperature was 54°F and the median wind 8 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Jets at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jets 59%, Raiders 41%. Applying our 5 points floor, that makes Jets contracts a buy at 54c or below and Raiders contracts a buy at 36c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Raiders vs Jets on Kalshi

Kalshi event: KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ
Market-implied (Jets): not listed yet
Our ratings line (Jets): 59%
Model vs market: —

Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Jets at 54c or below, or the Raiders at 36c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Where Raiders vs Jets trades

Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

Venue	Jets	Trade
Kalshi	not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game	Trade on Kalshi →
Novig	not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link	Sign-up offer →
Polymarket	no captured price for this game — international book	Sign-up offer →
Polymarket US	no captured price for this game — US exchange	Sign-up offer →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract	same Kalshi contract, not listed yet	Open Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract	same Kalshi contract, not listed yet	Open Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictions	price not available — sign-up offer →	Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predicts	price not available — sign-up offer →	Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Markets	price not available — sign-up offer →	Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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Raiders vs Jets — frequently asked

Who will win Jets vs Raiders?

Our model has the Jets at 59% to beat the Raiders in Week 8.

Who is favored in Raiders vs Jets in Week 8?

Our power-rating model picks the Jets by 3.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Raiders. The Jets rate 26th of 32 (-2.3) and the Raiders 29th (-3.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.

What is the biggest mismatch in Raiders vs Jets?

Raiders offense (-1.3, 25th of 32) against Jets defense (-1.0, 19th) — 0.3 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Jets (+0.8, 3rd).

How do you take a position on Raiders vs Jets?

The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 54c or below, or the Raiders at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Jets host the Raiders?

Las Vegas Raiders visit the New York Jets on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.

What does the model project for the Jets and Raiders this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 7.4 wins (favored in 5) and the Raiders at 7.8 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Raiders', by win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Jets?

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Jets at 54c or below or the Raiders at 36c or below, off a 3.5-point line.

Can you trade Raiders vs Jets on Kalshi?

Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Jets?

57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Jets at 59% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

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After this one

Raiders: Week 9 at 49ersModel line →Jets: Week 9 at ChiefsModel line →

More Week 8 matchups

Panthers at PackersPackers −4.5

Ravens at BillsBills −8

Titans at BengalsBengals −9

Cardinals at CowboysCowboys −6

Vikings at LionsLions −3.5

Colts at JaguarsJaguars −6.5

Browns at SteelersSteelers −3

Falcons at BuccaneersFalcons −2.5

Chargers at RamsRams −7.5

Chiefs at BroncosBroncos −3.5

Patriots at DolphinsPatriots −6

Eagles at CommandersCommanders −1

Bears at SeahawksSeahawks −9

Full Week 8 board →Next: NFL Week 9 predictions →

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