Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Jets by 4.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets, NFL Week 8 2026 — 64% to win, and Jets 31st of 32, Raiders 32nd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 59c or below (or Raiders at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LV
-6.0
NYJ
-4.0
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Raiders
36%
model win prob
Jets
64%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
53%
Madden 27
47%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 59c or below, or the Raiders at 31c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Raiders at Jets
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jets −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jets −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jets −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jets −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jets −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jets −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jets −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jets −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jets −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Jets −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Raiders at Jets
The Raiders travel to face the Jets in Week 8. Our power ratings put the Jets 31st of 32 at -4.0 (Below Avg tier) and the Raiders 32nd at -6.0 (Rebuild tier) — a 2.0-point gap that home field widens to a 4.5-point line on the Jets, 64% to win. It rates as the 10th-widest of the 14 games in Week 8.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Jets grade -2.1 on that side of the ball (26th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.2 (32nd) — 2.1 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Jets offense (-3.1, 30th) meets the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th), a 1.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.2 (23rd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.7 projected wins for the Jets against 5.7 for the Raiders, favored in 4 and 1 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 17th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 13th-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Jets' entire schedule.
The series is dead level: 7-7 across 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 4 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Raiders won 16-12 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 11 New York home games in November since 2015, the median temperature was 54°F and the median wind 8 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Jets here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jets 64%, Raiders 36%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Jets contracts a buy at 59c or below and Raiders contracts a buy at 31c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Jets on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ
- Market-implied (Jets)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Jets)
- 64%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Jets at 59c or below, or the Raiders at 31c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Raiders vs Jets trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Jets | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Raiders vs Jets — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Jets in Week 8?
Our power-rating model picks the Jets by 4.5 points, a 64% win probability over the Raiders, for a projected score of Jets 23, Raiders 18 on a ratings-implied 40.8-point total. The Jets rate 31st of 32 (-4.0) and the Raiders 32nd (-6.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Raiders vs Jets?
Raiders offense (-4.2, 32nd of 32) against Jets defense (-2.1, 26th) — 2.1 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Jets (+1.3, 1st).
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Jets?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 59c or below, or the Raiders at 31c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the New York Jets on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.7 wins (favored in 4) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 13th-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Jets?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Jets at 59c or below or the Raiders at 31c or below, off a 4.5-point line.
Can you trade Raiders vs Jets on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 64% on a team like the Jets?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Jets at 64% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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