Soccer Prediction Markets
The permanent home for soccer on prediction markets — live Kalshi and Polymarket prices, model-vs-market reads, and graded plays. Premier League and MLS are trading now; the 2026 World Cup archive stays up year-round. New to three-way markets? Start with how the draw contract works on Kalshi.
Premier League — Kalshi vs Polymarket US
Full board →Every fixture priced on both US exchanges, leg by leg, with the cheaper venue marked after fees and what a complete set costs all-in.
Ipswich Town vs FulhamPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Aston Villa vs BrentfordPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Sunderland vs BrightonPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Chelsea vs BournemouthPremier League · match result · best ask per legUpdated 4m ago · 10 fixtures priced on both venues · see all 10 →
Live on Kalshi — Soccer
All Kalshi markets →Updated every 5 min. Soccer contracts on the CFTC-regulated exchange.
Competitions & Reads
Premier League
LIVEEvery fixture on two US exchanges — home, draw, away, and the complete-set cost.
Premier League Season Board
LIVETitle, top 4, relegation, Golden Boot — every club on both venues, all season, plus what each complete set costs.
World Cup 2026
48 team profiles, Monte Carlo sim, every knockout tie modeled. Tournament complete.
Knockout Bracket
Round of 32 → Final — win/draw/loss model lines per tie, as they were called.
Model vs. Kalshi
Where our sim and the market board disagree right now.
Soccer Prediction Markets — The Guide
The pillar read: how soccer contracts price, and how to trade them.
Price any fixture yourself
Probability Converter, EV Calculator, and the Combo Edge Builder — the same math behind our reads, free to run.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Can you trade the Premier League on Kalshi and Polymarket US?
Yes, on both. Kalshi lists every Premier League fixture as a three-way match-result event — home, draw, away — where each contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢ and the price is the market-implied probability. Polymarket US lists the same three outcomes as separate contracts. Both are CFTC-regulated US exchanges with separate order books, so the same fixture can be priced differently on each; the Premier League board on this page shows both venues leg by leg, after each venue’s real fee.
How does the draw contract work on Kalshi?
Every Kalshi Premier League fixture carries a third contract, Tie, beside the two team contracts. Kalshi’s rules for it state that the market resolves to Yes if the fixture is tied after 90 minutes plus stoppage time — extra time and penalties do not count, which only matters in cup rounds anyway. If the fixture is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours away, the market resolves to a fair price under Kalshi’s rules rather than settling on a result. Because Kalshi charges no vig, the home, tie and away contracts on one fixture should sum to about 100¢, so any gap between the three is a genuine disagreement between traders, not a house margin. The full mechanics — pricing a draw, settlement, postponements and the complete-set idea — are at predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/how-the-draw-contract-works-kalshi-premier-league.
What soccer markets do prediction markets offer?
Match winner (win/draw/lose), advancement and qualification markets, league and tournament outrights, and player markets like Golden Boot leaders during major tournaments. Right now the deepest US-listed coverage is the Premier League — Kalshi and Polymarket US both quote every fixture as three mutually exclusive contracts — alongside MLS and a rotating slate of La Liga markets. Listings rotate with the calendar, and the same fixture can trade at different prices on each venue because they are separate exchanges with separate order books.
How do you find an edge in soccer prediction markets?
Compare an independent probability estimate to the market price. We run a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation for tournament soccer (Poisson-based goal models with market-anchored team ratings) and publish where our number and the market price disagree by enough to matter. The same math is available in our free tools: the Probability Converter for moving between odds formats, the EV Calculator for expected value per contract, and the Combo Edge Builder for pricing multi-leg positions.
Is trading soccer prediction markets legal in the US?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market, and its event contracts — including soccer — are legal to trade in all 50 states. That regulatory status is what separates prediction market contracts from sports betting, which is licensed state-by-state. Polymarket has served US traders since December 2025 through Polymarket US, a separate CFTC-regulated exchange that requires identity verification and varies by state; we still treat Kalshi as the primary US venue for its all-50-states availability and deeper US-listed slate.
Where can I see the record on soccer calls?
Graded plays live on the Play of the Day archive, with cumulative profit-and-loss shown as a net total in cents — wins and losses both stay on the board, and nothing is removed after the fact. The 2026 World Cup run is archived in full: every knockout fixture was published with win/draw/loss probabilities and a best-value read before kickoff, and settled against the final score on the bracket and match pages. The Premier League board is a price-comparison surface rather than a graded model, so it carries no record of its own.