Soccer Prediction Markets
The permanent home for soccer on prediction markets — live Kalshi and Polymarket prices, model-vs-market reads, and graded plays. World Cup now; Champions League, Premier League, and MLS as their markets list.
World Cup 2026 — Top Mispricings
Full bracket →Top sim-vs-market disagreements from the 10,000-run Monte Carlo, refreshed through the knockouts.
Competitions & Reads
World Cup 2026
LIVE48 team profiles, Monte Carlo sim, every knockout tie modeled.
Knockout Bracket
LIVERound of 32 → Final — win/draw/loss model lines per tie.
Model vs. Kalshi
Where our sim and the market board disagree right now.
Soccer Prediction Markets — The Guide
The pillar read: how soccer contracts price, and how to trade them.
Price any fixture yourself
Probability Converter, EV Calculator, and the Combo Edge Builder — the same math behind our reads, free to run.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Can you trade soccer on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi lists soccer event contracts — including FIFA World Cup 2026 match winners, advancement markets, and tournament outrights — as CFTC-regulated contracts that trade between 1¢ and 99¢, where the price is the market-implied probability. It is a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook: you are trading contracts against other traders with no vig, and it is available in all 50 US states.
What soccer markets do prediction markets offer?
Match winner (win/draw/lose), advancement and qualification markets, tournament outrights (e.g., World Cup champion), and player markets like Golden Boot leaders during major tournaments. Coverage is deepest around marquee competitions — the World Cup, Champions League, and Premier League — and listings rotate with the calendar. Polymarket typically carries similar soccer events, though US access routes most traders to Kalshi.
How do you find an edge in soccer prediction markets?
Compare an independent probability estimate to the market price. We run a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation for tournament soccer (Poisson-based goal models with market-anchored team ratings) and publish where our number and the market price disagree by enough to matter. The same math is available in our free tools: the Probability Converter for moving between odds formats, the EV Calculator for expected value per contract, and the Combo Edge Builder for pricing multi-leg positions.
Is trading soccer prediction markets legal in the US?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market, and its event contracts — including soccer — are legal to trade in all 50 states. That regulatory status is what separates prediction market contracts from sports betting, which is licensed state-by-state. Polymarket has historically been geoblocked for US retail traders, which is why we treat Kalshi as the primary US venue.
Where can I see the model’s World Cup record?
Every knockout tie we model is published with win/draw/loss probabilities and a best-value read before kickoff, and results are settled against the final score on the bracket and match pages. The daily plays are graded on the Play of the Day archive, with cumulative profit-and-loss shown in cents per contract — wins and losses both stay on the board.