New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears
Thursday, October 22, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 1.5 in New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears, NFL Week 7 2026 — 54% to win, and Bears 10th of 32, Patriots 2nd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT22NECHI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bears at 41c or below (or Patriots at 49c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NE
+5.4
CHI
+1.5
Patriots
54%
model win prob
Bears
46%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT22NECHIhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bears at 41c or below, or the Patriots at 49c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Thursday night's number, and what would make it a position
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears kicks off on Thursday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Bears at +1.5 (10th of 32, Average tier) against the Patriots at +5.4 (2nd, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Patriots by 1.5 and 54% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.9 (4th of 32) against a Bears defense at -0.9 (19th) — 4.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+1.9, 8th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 6th), a 0.6-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.9 (4th of 32) against a Bears defense at -0.9 (19th) — 4.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+1.9, 8th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 6th), a 0.6-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bears at 8.9 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Patriots at 11.0 (favored in 15) — 2.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the Bears' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Patriots'.
On the calendar, the Patriots are on a 4-day turnaround and the Bears are on a 4-day turnaround. The Patriots come in off the Jets, the Bears off the Falcons. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Patriots at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT22NECHI is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 46% / 54% — the tradable window is narrow: Bears at 41c or below, Patriots at 49c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Bears — frequently asked
Who is favored in Patriots vs Bears in Week 7?
Our power-rating model favors the Patriots by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Bears. The Bears rate 10th of 32 (+1.5) and the Patriots 2nd (+5.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT22NECHI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Patriots vs Bears?
Patriots offense (+3.9, 4th of 32) against Bears defense (-0.9, 19th) — 4.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Patriots vs Bears?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT22NECHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bears at 41c or below, or the Patriots at 49c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bears host the Patriots?
New England Patriots visit the Chicago Bears on Thursday, October 22, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 7, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.
What does the model project for the Bears and Patriots this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 8.9 wins (favored in 11) and the Patriots at 11.0 (favored in 15). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Patriots', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Patriots?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Patriots at 54% over the Bears sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Get the daily NFL prediction-market read — free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 7 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.