New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears
Thursday, October 22, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Patriots
50%
model win prob
Bears
50%
model win prob
Model line
Bears −0
Kalshi (Bears)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Bears — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 7, the New England Patriots travel to face the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bears 10th of 32 (Average tier, +0.9) and the Patriots 2nd (Playoff tier, +3.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bears by 0 — a 50% win probability for the Bears.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 50% (Bears) / 50% (Patriots) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Bears — frequently asked
Who is favored in Patriots vs Bears in Week 7?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bears by 0 points and gives them a 50% win probability over the Patriots. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Patriots vs Bears?
Home win probability 50% (Bears), away 50% (Patriots). That comes from a power-rating differential of -2.4 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bears rate 10th of 32 (Average tier), the Patriots 2nd (Playoff tier).
Can you trade Patriots vs Bears on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Bears host the Patriots?
New England Patriots visit the Chicago Bears on Thursday, October 22, 2026 in NFL Week 7, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.