Updated · model ratings
Thursday, October 22, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Quick Answer
Final (Thursday, October 22, 2026): New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 3 (60% to win); the Bears won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Bears at 60c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 3 (60% to win). The Bears won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Bears: +5c — we archived the Bears at 55c on Oct 16; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 60c on Oct 22. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Chicago never trailed on Thursday night, and never led by more than 13. Williams went 22 of 33 for 308 yards, touchdowns to Luther Burden III (24 yards, with 14 seconds left in the half) and Colston Loveland (12), and Burden finished with 130 yards on four catches. Drake Maye answered almost every Chicago score, 24 of 31 for 321 yards with touchdown passes to Rhamondre Stevenson (48, as the half ended) and Eli Raridon (30) and a 7-yard touchdown run, but D’Marco Jackson intercepted him in the end zone late in the second quarter. Santos’ 58-yard field goal with 1:34 left made it a two-score game, Andy Borregales answered from 47, and Chicago recovered the onside kick. DraftKings opened the Bears as 1.5-point home favorites and closed them at 3; they won by six, and 54 points finished over both the opening 47.5 and the closing 50.5.
Patriots 24—Bears 30
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Chicago at 60.5%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 3-point Bears line. Chicago won. The model’s own read had the Bears by 2.4, a 0.6-point lean toward the Patriots, tier NONE, and Chicago won by six: the lean was wrong. The quarterback gate read PASS on both sides. The ledger holds no position: its one Bears game-winner row (MODERATE, YES at 52.5¢) was voided on October 18 when the edge was gone, and it counts in neither direction. The preview on this page put the game on New England’s missing guards against Chicago’s blitz; Maye was sacked twice and still threw for 321 yards at 10.4 a pass, so that thesis did not hold. The final pre-kickoff player run carried no PLAY rows on this game. It carried 25 WATCH rows, graded apart as always and never folded into the record. Twelve are suppressed stats the board never displays (passing yards for both quarterbacks, and four touchdown rows) and they count in neither direction. The 13 visible rows went 8-5. Burden under 4.5 and 5.5 catches (four), Cole Kmet over 1.5 catches (three), Rome Odunze over 2.5 catches (four), Williams under 2.5 touchdown passes (two), Raridon over 1.5 catches (three), TreVeyon Henderson over 0.5 catches (two) and Maye under 29.5 rushing yards (26) were right. Williams and Maye each threw two touchdowns, so both under-1.5 rows lost, along with Maye under 24.5 rushing yards, Roschon Johnson over 19.5 receiving yards (no catches) and Efton Chism III over 1.5 catches (one).
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 3 to 50.5; the game landed on 54.
Q1
New England’s opening drive died on downs in Chicago territory, and Santos made it 3-0 from 43 yards on the Bears’ first possession. After two New England punts and one from Chicago, the Bears went 74 yards in five plays and Swift ran in from the 4 with 1:38 left in the first quarter.
Q2
Maye scored on a 7-yard scramble that New England won on a challenge, and Santos added a 31-yarder. Then Jackson picked off Maye’s deep throw for Raridon in the end zone. Chicago went 80 yards in ten plays, and after a sack set up third-and-17, Burden took a screen 24 yards for the score with 14 seconds left. New England needed two plays: Maye found Stevenson out of the backfield for 48 yards as time expired.
Q3
Chicago took the second-half kickoff 72 yards in nine plays and Williams hit Loveland from 12. New England answered with a nine-play, 80-yard drive capped by Maye’s 30-yard throw to Raridon, and the third quarter ended with Chicago up six.
Q4
A 13-play Chicago drive ended with Santos’ 53-yard try off the right upright at 8:02. The Bears got the ball back at their own 9 and drove 51 yards in 12 plays, and Santos made the 58-yarder with 1:34 left, a career long that matched the franchise record, per the AP. Borregales hit from 47 with 37 seconds to go, and Odunze fielded the onside kick.
AP via ESPN — Caleb Williams throws 2 TD passes as the Bears beat Drake Maye and the Patriots 30-24
Reporting verified 2026-10-27. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Caleb Williams throws 2 TD passes as the Bears beat Drake Maye and the Patriots 30-24
Two 4-2 teams, and the whole game sits on one trench. New England ruled out both starting guards and is down three cornerbacks; Chicago blitzed better than half its dropbacks last week and pressures at a top-five rate. The counterweight is that Chicago has been the league’s worst red-zone finisher and is without running back Kyle Monangai for a third straight week — so the Bears can win the line of scrimmage, move the ball between the twenties, and still kick field goals. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate: Maye is a full participant with no designation, Williams is not on the report at all.
Bears pass rush · Patriots pass protection
This is the game’s leverage point and it is a personnel mismatch rather than a schematic one. New England ruled OUT both starting guards — Alijah Vera-Tucker with a hamstring and Ben Brown with a knee — and right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable with a foot, which projects Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor inside and rookie Caleb Lomu at right tackle if Moses sits. Chicago arrives pressuring at a top-five rate and coming off its season-high blitz rate against Atlanta. The reason this matters beyond sacks is turnovers: New England has given the ball away thirteen times, second-most in the league, split between seven Maye interceptions and six lost fumbles, and interior pressure is the most reliable way to manufacture both. The one honest caveat in Chicago’s favor is also a caveat against it — New England has allowed only eleven sacks all year, tied tenth-fewest, so the protection has held. It has simply never held with this five.
Source: patriots.com — Week 7 injury report, Patriots at Bears (2026-10-21, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Bears run offense · Patriots run defense
Chicago runs the highest-volume offense in football and splits run and pass almost evenly, which in 2026 is a run-heavy profile. It has the most rushing yards in the league. The complication is who carries them: Kyle Monangai is out for a third straight week with a thumb and toe, leaving D’Andre Swift with Roschon Johnson, whose career-high last week was a modest 51 yards on 13 carries. New England’s answer is per-carry rather than volume — it concedes 3.9 a rush and is tenth-fewest in total rushing yards allowed — and with both guards out, the Patriots’ own run game is the unit most likely to disappear. Call this one even: Chicago should get the volume, and the volume should not be worth as much as its ranking implies.
Source: NFL.com — 2026 team offense rushing (retrieved 2026-10-22)
Bears pass offense · Patriots coverage
New England is without Carlton Davis III (neck, a third straight game), Karon Prunty (hamstring) and Channing Canada (hamstring), which leaves Christian Gonzalez plus expanded roles for Charles Woods and Marcus Jones. The Patriots were already permissive through the air, ninth-worst in completion rate allowed. Williams is coming off the most accurate game of his career. And yet this is the section where the game may be decided in New England’s favor, because Chicago has converted red-zone trips into touchdowns at a rate its own worksheet describes as the league low, while New England’s red-zone defense is top-ten. A team that moves the ball well and finishes badly, against a defense that bends in the middle of the field and stiffens inside the twenty, is the recipe for a one-score game decided by a kicker.
Source: chicagobears.com — Injury update: RG Jonah Jackson set to play vs Patriots (2026-10-21, 3:12 p.m.)
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
Both clubs filed their final Week 7 report on Wednesday, so unlike the rest of this slate these are game-status designations and not practice estimates. The quarterback gate passes on both sides. Maye appears on New England’s report with a right shoulder as a full participant carrying no designation; Williams does not appear on Chicago’s report at all, having returned in Week 6 from the three-game hamstring absence that ran through Weeks 3 to 5. Neither club, though, published a sentence naming its starter, so what we have is an official report with no designation rather than a confirmation — a distinction this desk keeps, because a practice-derived read is not an announcement. Elsewhere: New England is OUT at both guard spots and at three cornerbacks, with Moses, Christian Elliss, Kevin Byard III and Craig Woodson questionable. Chicago is OUT at running back (Monangai) and linebacker (Jack Sanborn, concussion), has T.J. Edwards doubtful with a hamstring, Tyrique Stevenson Sr. questionable with a hip, and cleared right guard Jonah Jackson to play with no designation. Chicago replaces Edwards and Sanborn with some combination of Devin Bush, D’Marco Jackson, Noah Sewell and Keyshaun Elliott — which is the room that has to cover tight ends.
Source: A to Z Sports — Bears Week 7 injury report: Jonah Jackson, Kyle Monangai, T.J. Edwards (2026-10-21)
Reporting verified 2026-10-22. Further sources: patriots.com — Week 7 injury report, Patriots at Bears (2026-10-21) · chicagobears.com — Injury update: Jonah Jackson set to play vs Patriots (2026-10-21) · A to Z Sports — Bears Week 7 injury report (2026-10-21) · Yahoo / SB Nation — Week 7 game preview: Chicago (2026-10-21) · chicagobears.com — By the Numbers, Week 6 victory over the Falcons (2026-10-19) · NFL.com — 2026 team offense rushing (retrieved 2026-10-22) · NFL.com — 2026 team defense passing (retrieved 2026-10-22) · Sharp Football Analysis — Week 6 worksheet, Chicago (Rich Hribar, 2026-10-14) · NFL.com — 2026 league standings (records; ESPN returned empty bodies this session) · patriots.com — schedule and results (2026) · chicagobears.com — schedule and results (2026)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
NE
+3.0
CHI
+3.2
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Patriots
40%
fair value (books)
Bears
60%
fair value (books)
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48%
Madden 27
52%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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A.J. Brown
WR
D'Andre Swift
RB
Rome Odunze
WR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
Colston Loveland
TE
Luther Burden III
WR
TreVeyon Henderson
RB
Drake Maye
QB
Caleb Williams
QB
Kyle Monangai
RB
Hunter Henry
TE
Kyle Williams
Efton Chism III
Eli Raridon
DeMario Douglas
Corey Kiner
NE Patriots D/ST
CHI Bears D/ST
Kalif Raymond
Roschon Johnson
Sam Roush
Zavion Thomas
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 — the graded call is above.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears kicks off on Thursday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Bears at +3.2 (2nd of 32, Playoff tier) against the Patriots at +3.0 (4th, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Bears by 2.5 and 57% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.0 (4th of 32) against a Bears defense at +0.2 (7th) — 2.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+2.5, 6th) meets the Patriots defense (-0.3, 12th), a 2.8-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.7 projected wins for the Bears against 10.1 for the Patriots, favored in 14 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 8th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Patriots'.
On the calendar, the Patriots are on a 4-day turnaround and the Bears are on a 4-day turnaround. The Patriots come in off the Jets, the Bears off the Falcons. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
One team has owned this series: the Patriots are 6-1 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Patriots won 19-3 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Bears at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT22NECHI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 60% for the Bears. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bears | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
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| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
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New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 — final, played Thursday, October 22, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 3 (60% to win), and the Bears won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Bears by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Patriots. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT22NECHI market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Patriots offense (+3.0, 4th of 32) against Bears defense (+0.2, 7th) — 2.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT22NECHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bears at 58c or below, or the Patriots at 38c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
New England Patriots visit the Chicago Bears on Thursday, October 22, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 7, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 10.7 wins (favored in 14) and the Patriots at 10.1 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Patriots', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT22NECHI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT22NECHI has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Bears at 57% over the Patriots sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 61% against a market price implying 60%, an edge of +0.5 points. Model 60% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 60% on CHI — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Steelers at SaintsModel: Steelers −2.5
49ers at FalconsModel: 49ers −2
Bengals at RavensModel: Bengals −1.5
Buccaneers at PanthersModel: Panthers −3
Giants at TexansModel: Texans −5
Colts at VikingsModel: Vikings −4
Dolphins at JetsModel: Jets −4.5
Browns at TitansModel: Browns −1
Broncos at CardinalsModel: Broncos −2.5
Packers at LionsModel: Lions −1.5
Rams at RaidersModel: Rams −2.5
Chiefs at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −5
Cowboys at EaglesModel: Cowboys −1The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
