Open Data Catalog

Market-implied probability that the NBER declares a US recession, read from live Kalshi binary contract prices. One row per listed contract, each carrying the implied probability, 24-hour volume and the snapshot time it was read.

Market-implied probability distribution for US CPI year-over-year prints, derived from Kalshi threshold contracts. Reading the price across every listed threshold gives a full implied CDF, and from it an implied median.

Market-implied probability distribution of the S&P 500 year-end closing level, derived from Kalshi bracket contracts. Exactly one bracket resolves, so the prices across brackets read directly as a probability distribution.

Market-implied probability of a US federal government shutdown at each funding deadline Kalshi lists a contract for. Active in the weeks around a deadline; between deadlines the series is intentionally sparse rather than back-filled.

A single 0–100 score for US macroeconomic health, recomputed daily from eleven public FRED series across six categories — growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity and sentiment — together with the regime band the score falls in and each category sub-score.

A daily series of implied probabilities for each outcome of a named FOMC meeting on three venues: Kalshi, the Polymarket international order book, and an inversion of CME fed funds futures. Only same-basis rows are ever subtracted — Kalshi asks a cumulative question about the target range following a meeting while the other two price the move at that meeting, so the questions coincide for the next meeting and diverge by pure basis after it.

The settled, graded record for every PMP predictive tool published with public visibility. Each signal is written down before resolution and graded against the actual settlement, so the losing engines appear alongside the winning ones. Scored on the all-time window.

Live implied probability for the 2026 US midterm races and chamber-control questions we track, read from contract prices. Every row names the venue it came from; any Polymarket row is the international order book, the only Polymarket venue we ingest.

Live implied probability for 2028 US presidential nomination and general-election outcomes, read from contract prices across both platforms we cover. Every row names the venue it came from; Polymarket rows are the international order book, the only Polymarket venue we ingest.

Champion probability for all 48 teams from The 7 Oracles 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo tournament simulation, with the probability of reaching the quarter-final, semi-final and final, plus each team’s group. Model output, not market prices — the source field reads "simulation" on every row.

Contract-level implied probabilities for the sports markets our cross-venue scanner tracks, each row labelled with the venue it was read from and carrying 24-hour volume. This is the board the Kalshi-versus-Polymarket comparison is computed from, published as rows rather than as a derived gap.

Implied probabilities for the Premier League fixtures listed as event contracts, one row per fixture with the venue it was read from and 24-hour volume. Fixture-level, not aggregated to a season table.