FREE

Fed Rate Tracker

Live FOMC hike, hold and cut odds from Kalshi, compared with Polymarket and futures, with every 2026 decision graded.

How each decision is graded

closest = argmax over venues of P(actual outcome)

P = each venue's close on its last day before the decisionvenues = Kalshi · Polymarket · fed funds futuresoutcome = {cut50, cut25, hold, hike25, hike50}A meeting needs two priced venues to be graded

MACRO · FED

What does the market think the Fed will do next?

What is this?

The Federal Reserve controls interest rates, which affects the stock market, mortgages, crypto — basically everything. This tracker shows you the live prediction market odds for what the Fed will do at each upcoming meeting.

If you have a mortgage, a 401k, or any investments, understanding where rates are headed is basic financial literacy. This tool puts those odds in one place in plain English — no economics degree needed.

Real-World Example

→ How to Read It

Say the tracker shows a 70% chance of a hike and a 30% chance of a hold at the next meeting. Every meeting gets its own row, and the numbers move with each data release. This is what real money — billions in positions — says will happen.

If you think the odds are wrong (maybe a hot CPI print or a weak jobs report), you can take the other side directly on Kalshi. If the market says 30% hold and you think it's 50%, that's a trade.

✅Action: Check this before any Fed meeting. Compare to what pundits are saying on TV. The market usually knows more than the anchors.

Bottom line: Prediction markets price Fed decisions better than most Wall Street forecasters. Use this as your reality check.

Full guide →

What is the federal funds rate right now?

The federal funds target range is 3.75%–4.00%, set at the Sep 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting and effective Sept. 17, 2026. The Federal Reserve raised it by a quarter point from 3.50%–3.75%. The vote was 12–0, unanimous — the first increase since 2023, after July’s 9–3 hold in which three members dissented in favor of a hike. The next decision is Oct 27–28, 2026. Live prediction-market odds for that meeting are on this page.

Fed decisions this year — every recorded 2026 FOMC outcome

Jan 27–28, 2026 — Hold · 3.50%–3.75%
Mar 17–18, 2026 — Hold · 3.50%–3.75%
Apr 28–29, 2026 — Hold · 3.50%–3.75%
Jun 16–17, 2026 — Hold · 3.50%–3.75%
Jul 28–29, 2026 — Hold · 3.50%–3.75%
Sep 15–16, 2026 — Hike 25bp · 3.75%–4.00%

Quick Answer

As of October 15, 2026, The market favorite has won 14 of 14 Fed decisions since 2025 — on Kalshi and Polymarket. For the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting, as of October 15, 2026: hold 71.5% Kalshi · 74.5% Polymarket · 72% futures. The prediction market's base case for the Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting (13 days out) is a hold. Kalshi implies a hike at 24% (25bp 23%, 50bp 1%), hold 75%, cut 1%. Current target range: 3.75%–4.00%.

What Is the Fed Rate Tracker?

The Fed Rate Tracker is the CME FedWatch tool rebuilt for prediction market traders. Instead of federal funds futures math, it reads Kalshi contract prices directly — a 62¢ contract means 62% probability. No conversion required.

What makes it different: it puts three markets side by side — Kalshi, Polymarket and a probability derived from fed funds futures — keeps a daily record of all three since Aug. 15, and grades every decision against what each one priced. You can see who called it, not just what the market thinks now.

Live Kalshi market dataTarget range: 3.75%–4.00%

Rate Path

Cut likelyHoldHike

Numbers inside dots = market-implied probability % of that meeting's leading outcome (cut, hold, or hike — the label under each dot says which). Tap a meeting to see details.

Oct 27–28, 2026

13 days out · Market-implied probabilities from Kalshi

Hold75%

Hike 25bp23%

Cut 50bp1%

Hike 50bp1%

Cut 25bp0%

Last updated Oct 15, 8:30 AM UTC

Trade Oct 27–28, 2026 on Kalshi →

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Get the before/after odds the morning of every Fed-moving print — Kalshi, Polymarket and futures, side by side. Free.

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Economic Calendar

Next release

Core PCE

Wed, Oct 28 · 8:30 AM ET

Recent

Effective Federal Funds Rate (Daily)Oct 2026

3.88%

Reverse Repo OperationsOct 2026

0.275k

10Y–2Y Treasury SpreadOct 2026

0.42%

The case for each side

Oct 27–28, 2026

Hike 24%Hold 75%Cut 1%(hike = 25bp + 50bp)

→ Hold case

•Core CPI at or below 0.2% MoM — the last move is working
•Payrolls weak or unemployment rising
•Energy prices roll over and headline inflation cools
•Chair signals patience at the press conference

↑ Hike case

•Core CPI prints 0.3% MoM or hotter again — inflation not cooling
•Energy prices keep feeding headline inflation
•Payrolls solid (NFP 150K+) with unemployment flat
•Chair and dots keep signalling more tightening is needed

The leading outcome is listed first. Odds update as economic data prints.

Historical Accuracy

Full record →

100%

Accuracy

3 of 3

Correct calls

Meetings graded

6 meetings resolved · 3 gradable — the rest have no retained pre-decision snapshot.

Accuracy = market-implied dominant outcome (from Kalshi) matches the Fed's actual decision. Compare to CME FedWatch for cross-validation.

Indicator Deep Dives

+/- 5–8pp impact · Fed target

Rate expectations signal

→

FOMC Meeting Pages

Jan

HOLD

Mar

HOLD

Apr

HOLD

Jun

HOLD

Jul

HOLD

Sep

HIKE 25

Oct

75% hold

Dec

89% hike

Jan

91% hike

Mar

71% hike

Apr

65% hike

Jun

61% hike

Jul

54% hike

Sep

53% hike

Oct

68% hike

Dec

78% hike

Timeline of the 2026 FOMC meetings: 6 decided, hold 75% priced for Oct. 28, target range now 3.75%–4.00%. — Every 2026 FOMC meeting: the decision where settled, the Kalshi-implied leading outcome where not. Source: PredictionMarketsPicks, CC BY 4.0.

Cross-Market Divergence

Oct 27–28, 2026 · 13 days out

The same meeting, priced on 3 venues at once. On the outcome the market considers most likely, they disagree by 3.0pp.

Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC: implied probability of each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket (international book) and CME fed funds futures implied, with the spread between them. A dash means no price.
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Futures	Spread
50bp+ cut	0.5%	0.1%	—	0.4pp
25bp cut	0.5%	0.4%	0.0%	0.5pp
Hold	71.5%	74.5%	72.0%	3.0pp
25bp hike	27.5%	24.5%	28.0%	3.5pp
50bp+ hike	0.5%	0.4%	—	0.1pp

Widest gap: 3.5pp on 25bp hike, between Polymarket and Futures.

Which venue has been right

Jan 28–29, 2025 — actual: Hold · Kalshi 99.5% · Polymarket 98.7% · closest: Kalshi
Mar 18–19, 2025 — actual: Hold · Kalshi 99.5% · Polymarket 99.2% · Futures 100.0% · closest: Futures
May 6–7, 2025 — actual: Hold · Kalshi 96.5% · Polymarket 98.0% · Futures 98.7% · closest: Futures
Jun 17–18, 2025 — actual: Hold · Kalshi 97.5% · Polymarket 98.4% · Futures 100.0% · closest: Futures
Jul 29–30, 2025 — actual: Hold · Kalshi 97.5% · Polymarket 98.0% · closest: Polymarket
Sep 16–17, 2025 — actual: 25bp cut · Kalshi 93.5% · Polymarket 92.5% · Futures 100.0% · closest: Futures
Oct 28–29, 2025 — actual: 25bp cut · Kalshi 98.5% · Polymarket 98.0% · closest: Kalshi
Dec 9–10, 2025 — actual: 25bp cut · Kalshi 96.5% · Polymarket 96.9% · Futures 94.5% · closest: Polymarket
Jan 27–28, 2026 — actual: Hold · Kalshi 98.5% · Polymarket 99.5% · closest: Polymarket
Mar 17–18, 2026 — actual: Hold · Kalshi 99.5% · Polymarket 99.5% · Futures 97.6% · closest: Kalshi
Apr 28–29, 2026 — actual: Hold · Kalshi 99.5% · Polymarket 99.8% · closest: Polymarket
Jun 16–17, 2026 — actual: Hold · Kalshi 99.5% · Polymarket 99.6% · Futures 93.1% · closest: Polymarket
Jul 28–29, 2026 — actual: Hold · Kalshi 74.5% · Polymarket 76.9% · closest: Polymarket
Sep 15–16, 2026 — actual: 25bp hike · Kalshi 86.5% · Polymarket 88.5% · Futures 94.3% · closest: Futures

Polymarket prices are from the international book. Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own order book — verify the price there before taking a position.

CME fed funds futures implied is derived from the CME fed funds futures curve using the published FedWatch methodology, anchored on the daily effective fed funds rate. It yields a single expected rate, so it is mapped onto a cut / hold / hike triple — it cannot express a 50bp outcome at all, and those cells read “—” rather than 0%.

Updated Oct 15, 4:30 AM ET · refreshes every 30 minutes.

Grouped bar chart of Kalshi, Polymarket and futures odds for the Oct 27–28, 2026 Fed meeting: hold 72%, 25bp hike 28%, widest gap 3.5 points. — Kalshi vs Polymarket (international book) vs CME fed funds futures implied, Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC. Source: PredictionMarketsPicks, as of Oct 15, 2026 (ET). Free to use with credit, CC BY 4.0.

Hike Watch

Oct 27–28, 2026 · 14 days out

Hike · 25bp + 50bp · last daily close

24%

Hold

76%

Cut

Aug 15Oct 15

Hike odds for Oct first closed above 50% on Aug 18, and sit at 24% today.

59 daily closes, starting Aug 15 — this series begins there because that is when we started keeping it, and it is not backfillable. Hike is HIKE-25 + HIKE-50 and cut is CUT-25 + CUT-50, each read off the Kalshi strike ladder independently, so the three need not sum to exactly 100%. Oct 27–28, 2026 detail →

Line chart of Kalshi's hike probability for the Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting, 59 daily closes from Aug 15 to Oct 15, now 24%. — Kalshi-implied probability of a hike (25bp + 50bp) at the Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting, one daily close per day since Aug 15, when we started keeping the series. Source: PredictionMarketsPicks, CC BY 4.0.

SEP Dot Plot Watch

Dec 8–9, 2026 · 56 days out

Kalshi’s KXDOTPLOT ladder prices the Fed’s own forecast — the median projected federal funds rate for year-end 2026 in the Summary of Economic Projections. It is a different question from the rate decision itself: this is where the committee says rates are going, not what it does at this meeting.

Market-implied median dot

Too wide to call

The bid side and the ask side of this ladder currently imply different medians, so there is no single number the book actually supports. No estimate is shown rather than one picked from the middle.

> 3.50%

60%–100%no trades

> 3.60%

62%–100%no trades

> 3.70%

0%–100%no trades

> 3.80%

0%–100%no trades

> 3.90%

55%–100%

> 4.00%

47%–99%

> 4.10%

0%–73%

> 4.20%

0%–43%

> 4.30%

16%–50%

> 4.40%

3%–49%

> 4.50%

2%–47%

> 4.60%

2%–56%no trades

Lifetime volume 1,808.8824h volume 0Open interest 1,347.88Widest spread 100¢

Read this ladder carefully. Only 7 of 12 strikes have ever traded and the widest quote is 100¢ wide, so treat each strike as a band rather than a price. And the ladder is not exhaustive: per the contract’s own clarification, if the Fed publishes no SEP at this meeting — or an SEP with no median year-end-2026 projection — every strike resolves No, not void. That risk sits inside all twelve prices at once, which is why they do not add to 100%. How KXDOTPLOT settles →

Kalshi · as of Oct 15, 4:30 AM ET

How is this different from fed funds futures odds?

Futures-based Fed odds read fed funds futures only. This tracker shows the futures-implied odds next to live Kalshi and Polymarket prices for the same meeting (Oct 27–28, 2026, hold: Kalshi 71.5%, futures 72% as of October 15, 2026), and grades every 2026 decision against what each venue priced.

Who called it: every Fed decision since January 2025 vs. the prediction markets

The market favorite won 14 of 14. Kalshi averaged 95.5% on the outcome that happened, Polymarket 95.95%.

Each venue's final price on the outcome that happened, from its last day before the announcement. Highest is closest; within 1 point is a tie.

14 FOMC decisions, Jan 28–29, 2025 to Sep 15–16, 2026, with each venue's last pre-decision price on the outcome that happened; the highest is closest.
Meeting	Decision	Kalshi	Polymarket	Futures	Closest
Jan 28–29, 2025	HOLD	99.5%^†	98.7%^†	—	Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)
Mar 18–19, 2025	HOLD	99.5%^†	99.2%^†	100.0%^†	Tie (all three)
May 6–7, 2025	HOLD	96.5%^†	98.1%^†	98.7%^†	Tie (Polymarket/Futures)
Jun 17–18, 2025	HOLD	97.5%^†	98.4%^†	100.0%^†	Futures
Jul 29–30, 2025	HOLD	97.5%^†	98.0%^†	—	Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)
Sep 16–17, 2025	CUT 25	93.5%^†	92.5%^†	≥99%^†	Futures
Oct 28–29, 2025	CUT 25	98.5%^†	98.1%^†	—	Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)
Dec 9–10, 2025	CUT 25	96.5%^†	96.9%^†	94.5%^†	Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)
Jan 27–28, 2026	HOLD	98.5%^†	99.5%^†	—	Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)
Mar 17–18, 2026	HOLD	99.5%^†	99.5%^†	97.6%^†	Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)
Apr 28–29, 2026	HOLD	99.5%^†	99.8%^†	—	Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)
Jun 16–17, 2026	HOLD	99.5%^†	99.6%^†	93.1%^†	Tie (Kalshi/Polymarket)
Jul 28–29, 2026	HOLD	74.5%^†	76.9%^†	—	Polymarket
Sep 15–16, 2026	HIKE 25	86.5%	88.5%	94.3%	Futures

† Reconstructed from each venue’s own public price archive (last close before the decision day). Sept 2026 onward is our live capture. A futures “—” is a late-month meeting the futures leg can't be rebuilt for. Polymarket prices are the international book. Oct 27–28, 2026 is next — the daily three-venue series is building now.

Full record →Download the graded record (CSV)Kalshi vs Polymarket Fed odds →

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<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/fed-record" width="640" height="520" style="max-width:100%;border:0" loading="lazy" title="Fed scoreboard: every FOMC decision vs. Kalshi, Polymarket and futures"></iframe>

Kalshi Polymarket Fed odds scoreboard: 14 Fed decisions. The market favorite won all 14. — The Fed scoreboard: every FOMC decision since January 2025, each venue's last price the day before, on the outcome that happened. Earlier decisions reconstructed from each venue's public price archive. Source: PredictionMarketsPicks, CC BY 4.0.

Scorecard of every 2026 Fed decision graded against Kalshi, Polymarket and CME futures; futures were closest on the 25bp hike of Sept. 16 at 94.3%. — Who called it: each venue's last close before the decision, on the outcome that happened. Source: PredictionMarketsPicks, CC BY 4.0.

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How to Read the Fed Rate Tracker

The Rate Path Timeline at the top shows all 8 FOMC meetings in 2026. The number inside each dot is the market-implied probability of that meeting's leading outcome — cut, hold or hike, as the label under the dot says. Green = cut leads, gray = hold leads, orange = hike leads. Tap any meeting to see the full probability breakdown: cut 50bp, cut 25bp, hold, hike 25bp and hike 50bp.

Hike Watch and the daily record

Every major release — CPI, the jobs report, PCE — moves the next meeting's odds, and every move is kept. Hike Watch draws the daily closes for the next meeting, so you can see exactly what each print did, and the history page holds the same record for every meeting since Aug. 15 alongside the graded finals.

The Sensitivity Table

Each indicator has a calibrated sensitivity coefficient — how many percentage points the next-meeting odds shift toward a hike (hot print) or a cut (soft print) per standard deviation of surprise. Core CPI: ±8pp per σ. NFP: ±6pp per σ. Core PCE: ±6.5pp per σ. These coefficients are calibrated from historical Kalshi market reactions to each release going back to 2022 (when Kalshi launched Fed rate markets) and cross-validated against CME FedWatch data going back to 2015.

Every Indicator We Track

Each release has its own page — the calibrated sensitivity, the release calendar, and how Kalshi has historically repriced against it:

How to Use This for Trading

The tool is a lens, not an oracle. Three use cases: (1) pre-release positioning — knowing which direction a surprise would push the market and whether current prices reflect consensus. (2) post-release reaction check — did Kalshi move as much as the indicator's sensitivity coefficient says it should? If not, there's residual mispricing. (3) meeting-day positioning — with 24 hours to go, Hike Watch shows how far the odds have travelled since the last meeting, and the three-venue board shows whether Kalshi, Polymarket and futures agree. Where they split is the thesis.

The asymmetry is worth understanding before you size anything: a hike strike trading in the low single digits pays multiples if the committee turns, and the ladder reprices violently once dissent goes public. We walked through that convexity — entry, target, exit and the theta math — in the Kalshi Fed hike convexity breakdown. The mechanics travel to any meeting on the ladder above. For the September meeting the market called, the September 2026 hike piece grades what Kalshi, Polymarket and futures priced side by side, which was closest, and how the contract got there.

Data Sources

Probabilities: Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets and CME fed funds futures, pulled every 30 minutes. Indicator data: FRED API (St. Louis Fed), free and publicly available. Consensus estimates: Trading Economics API. The model, methodology, and historical accuracy are all documented on the Historical Accuracy page.

Put this tracker in your work

Both of these are free and stay live — the numbers update every 30 minutes from the same pipeline this page reads. The only condition is attribution.

Charts are free to use with credit — CC BY 4.0. Every chart on this page is a downloadable PNG with the source line baked in: open “Use this graphic” under any chart to download it or copy the embed snippet.

Embed the tracker

A live, zero-JavaScript card for your own site. Resizes itself to its container, so it works in a sidebar as well as a full-width column.

Get the embed code →

Free JSON API

No key, no account, CORS open to any origin. Cached five minutes at the edge.

GET https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/fed-rate-tracker/public

fetch('https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/fed-rate-tracker/public')
  .then(r => r.json())
  .then(d => console.log(d.nextMeeting.probabilities))

Returns the next meeting, the full 2026 rate path and the current fed funds rate. Attribution required, verbatim: “Data from Kalshi prediction markets. Tool by predictionmarketspicks.com”

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the federal funds rate right now?

Have prediction markets ever gotten a Fed decision wrong?

Not since we started grading. Across 14 FOMC decisions from Jan 28–29, 2025 to Sep 15–16, 2026, the favorite on Kalshi and on Polymarket won every one, judged on each venue's last price the day before the announcement. The closest call was the Jul 28–29, 2026 decision, when Kalshi had it at 74.5% and Polymarket at 76.9% — both still right. Decisions before Aug. 30, 2026 are reconstructed from each venue's own public price archive; later ones are our live capture.

Which is more accurate on Fed decisions: Kalshi, Polymarket or fed funds futures?

On the outcome that happened, Kalshi averaged 95.5% and Polymarket 95.95% across 14 decisions; fed funds futures implied 97.27% on the 8 meetings its method can reconstruct. On routine decisions the venues are interchangeable — usually within a point, which we score as a tie. The difference shows on the hard calls: Jul 28–29, 2026 — Polymarket closest (Kalshi 74.5%, Polymarket 76.9%); Sep 15–16, 2026 — Futures closest (Kalshi 86.5%, Polymarket 88.5%, futures 94.3%).

How is this different from fed funds futures odds?

What are the odds the Fed hikes at the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting?

As of October 15, 2026, a 25bp hike is 27.5% on Kalshi, 24.5% on Polymarket (international book) and 28% implied by fed funds futures. The favorite is a hold, at 71.5% on Kalshi. The live board above updates every 30 minutes.

What is the Fed dot plot, and can you trade it?

The dot plot is the chart inside the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections showing where each FOMC participant thinks the federal funds rate should be at the end of each year. It is a forecast, not a decision — which is exactly why it moves markets separately from the rate announcement itself. Kalshi lists it as KXDOTPLOT, a ladder of “will the median year-end 2026 projection be above X%” contracts. The September 2026 ladder settled on the SEP published with the September 16 hike (median 2026 dot 4.1%: strikes through 4.00% paid Yes, 4.10% and up paid No); the December ladder is live. The SEP Dot Plot Watch panel on this page shows the live ladder and the median it implies. Two things to know before trading it: the book is thin, with wide bid–ask spreads that make each individual strike a band rather than a price; and the ladder is not exhaustive — if the Fed publishes no SEP, or an SEP without a median year-end-2026 projection, every strike resolves No rather than voiding.

Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?

The market prices that question meeting by meeting, and the answer moves with the data. The rate-path timeline above shows the live Kalshi-implied probability of a hike, hold or cut at every remaining 2026 FOMC meeting — including the later-year meetings, where hike pricing has been the more active side. Each print re-prices the whole path, and every move is kept in the daily archive.

Do Kalshi and Polymarket price Fed meetings the same way?

Not quite, and the difference matters more than the prices do. Kalshi’s KXFED contracts ask whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate will be above a given level FOLLOWING a meeting — a cumulative question, so two separate 25bp moves at earlier meetings land in the same bucket as one 50bp move. Polymarket’s per-meeting ladders ask what the Fed does AT that meeting. For the next meeting on the calendar the two coincide exactly, because no decision comes between now and then; for later meetings they do not, and subtracting one from the other produces a gap of tens of points that is pure definition rather than genuine disagreement. The Cross-Market Divergence panel on this page compares the venues only where they are answering the same question, adds a third reference derived from CME fed funds futures, and shows the remaining spread in percentage points. Polymarket figures come from its international book, which is a separate order book from Polymarket US.

What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in October 2026?

The October 27–28 meeting ends with the rate decision at 2 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 28, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30. It has its own page with the full strike ladder, the market-implied hike, hold and cut probabilities, and how they have moved as the data landed. Read it at /tools/fed-rate-tracker/october-2026 — the figures update every 30 minutes from Kalshi, so the page is the number rather than anything quoted here. The September meeting is settled and graded: the Fed raised to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, and the receipt across all three venues is at /tools/fed-rate-tracker/september-2026.

Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?

The Fed Rate Tracker shows the live Kalshi market-implied probability of a cut, hold, or hike at the next FOMC meeting, updated in real time. Read the nearest meeting in the rate-path timeline above for the current odds — the market re-prices after every CPI, NFP and PCE release, and the Hike Watch series shows how far each one moved it.

What are the odds the Fed cuts rates in 2026?

Each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting carries its own market-implied cut, hold and hike probabilities on Kalshi, shown in the timeline above; the six already decided are graded on the history page. After the Fed hiked on Sept. 16 the market leans toward further hikes, not cuts, so any cut odds are small. Rather than a single number, the tracker gives the full rate path, so you can see which way the market expects the next move and how conviction builds across the year.

Will the Fed cut rates in 2026?

Prediction markets on Kalshi price the probability of a Fed rate cut at each FOMC meeting in real time. The Fed Rate Tracker shows these probabilities for every remaining 2026 meeting, and grades the ones already decided. Check the rate path timeline above for the current cut, hold and hike odds at each meeting.

What is the difference between this and CME FedWatch?

CME FedWatch uses federal funds futures prices. This tracker uses Kalshi prediction market contract prices. Both reflect market expectations, but prediction markets are binary contracts with direct probability interpretation — no interest rate math required. We also compare Kalshi with Polymarket and a futures-derived probability side by side, keep a daily archive of all three since Aug. 15, and grade each venue after every decision.

How do you grade the markets?

After each decision, every venue is scored on its closing price from its last trading day before the announcement. The venue that put the highest probability on what the Fed actually did is the closest. The full record — Kalshi, Polymarket and futures, meeting by meeting — is at /tools/fed-rate-tracker/history, and the daily series behind it starts Aug. 15, 2026.

What economic indicators matter most for Fed rate decisions?

Core CPI and Core PCE are the most market-moving indicators — the Fed explicitly targets 2% PCE inflation. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) comes second under the dual mandate. A jobs surprise above 200K typically shifts the odds 4–8 percentage points toward a hike. GDP, unemployment, and ISM manufacturing have medium impact. Consumer sentiment and Treasury yields provide supporting signals.

How often is this data updated?

Kalshi, Polymarket and futures prices are pulled every 30 minutes, around the clock. The page itself refreshes every 15 minutes, and every day closes into the permanent archive.

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Fed Rate Tracker

Fed decisions this year — every recorded 2026 FOMC outcome

What Is the Fed Rate Tracker?

Rate Path

Oct 27–28, 2026

Economic Calendar

The case for each side

Historical Accuracy

Indicator Deep Dives

FOMC Meeting Pages

Cross-Market Divergence

Which venue has been right

Hike Watch

SEP Dot Plot Watch

How is this different from fed funds futures odds?

Who called it: every Fed decision since January 2025 vs. the prediction markets

The Fed board is free. Every other gap is Pro — $150/yr

Related Tools

Related Reads & Boards

Deep Dive

How to Read the Fed Rate Tracker

Hike Watch and the daily record

The Sensitivity Table

Every Indicator We Track

How to Use This for Trading

Data Sources

Put this tracker in your work

Embed the tracker

Free JSON API

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the federal funds rate right now?

Have prediction markets ever gotten a Fed decision wrong?

Which is more accurate on Fed decisions: Kalshi, Polymarket or fed funds futures?

How is this different from fed funds futures odds?

What are the odds the Fed hikes at the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting?

What is the Fed dot plot, and can you trade it?

Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?

Do Kalshi and Polymarket price Fed meetings the same way?

What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in October 2026?

Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?

What are the odds the Fed cuts rates in 2026?

Will the Fed cut rates in 2026?

What is the difference between this and CME FedWatch?

How do you grade the markets?

What economic indicators matter most for Fed rate decisions?

How often is this data updated?