Fed Rate Tracker
Live FOMC cut/hold/hike probabilities from Kalshi prediction markets. Bayesian model updates after every CPI, NFP, and PCE print.
MACRO · FED
What does the market think the Fed will do next?
What is this?
The Federal Reserve controls interest rates, which affects the stock market, mortgages, crypto — basically everything. This tracker shows you the live prediction market odds for what the Fed will do at each upcoming meeting.
If you have a mortgage, a 401k, or any investments, understanding where rates are headed is basic financial literacy. This tool puts those odds in one place in plain English — no economics degree needed.
Real-World Example
→ How to Read It
The tracker shows: 67% chance of no cut in May, 33% chance of a 25bps cut. This is what the "smart money" — billions in real bets — says will happen.
If you think the odds are wrong (maybe you saw a surprising jobs report), you can bet directly on Kalshi. If the market says 33% cut and you think it's 55%, that's a bet.
✅Action: Check this before any Fed meeting. Compare to what pundits are saying on TV. The market usually knows more than the anchors.
Bottom line: Prediction markets price Fed decisions better than most Wall Street forecasters. Use this as your reality check.
Full guide →Quick Answer
As of July 4, 2026, the prediction market's base case for the Jul 29–30, 2026 FOMC meeting (26 days out) is a hold. Kalshi implies hold 87%, 25bps cut 1%, 25bps hike 11%, 50bps cut 1%. Current upper bound: 3.63%.
What Is the Fed Rate Tracker?
The Fed Rate Tracker is the CME FedWatch tool rebuilt for prediction market traders. Instead of federal funds futures math, it reads Kalshi contract prices directly — a 62¢ contract means 62% probability. No conversion required.
What makes it different: after every CPI, NFP, and PCE print, the Bayesian model runs automatically. It computes the surprise (how far the actual data deviated from consensus), applies the historical sensitivity coefficient, and publishes an updated posterior probability distribution. You see exactly how much the market should move — and can compare that to how it actually moved.
2026 Rate Path
Numbers inside dots = market-implied cut probability %. Tap a meeting to see details.
Jul 29–30, 2026
26 days out · Market-implied probabilities from Kalshi
Last updated Jul 4, 11:00 PM UTC
Economic Calendar
Next release
CPI
Sun, Jul 12 · 8:30 AM ET
In
Recent
Bull / Bear Case
Jul 29–30, 2026- •Core CPI prints below 0.2% MoM — inflation clearly returning to target
- •NFP below 100K — labor market cooling, unemployment ticking up
- •GDP disappoints — growth slowing faster than Fed projected
- •Fed chair signals concern about employment in Beige Book/speeches
- •Core PCE remains above 2.5% — inflation re-acceleration risk
- •NFP above 200K — labor market too strong to justify easing
- •GDP beats — economy growing above potential, no slack
- •Dollar weakens or oil spikes — secondary inflation pressures mount
Cases update automatically as economic data prints. Bayesian model adjusts probabilities in real time.
Historical Accuracy
Full record →Tracking starts with the next FOMC meeting.
Once Kalshi markets resolve, this scorecard builds automatically. The Bayesian model's predictive accuracy vs. final outcomes will be tracked here.
Accuracy = market-implied dominant outcome (from Kalshi) matches the Fed's actual decision. Compare to CME FedWatch for cross-validation.
Indicator Deep Dives
Related Tools
How to Read the Fed Rate Tracker
The Rate Path Timeline at the top shows all 8 FOMC meetings in 2026. The number inside each dot is the market-implied probability of a cut (any size). Green = cut likely, gray = hold likely, orange = hike likely. Tap any meeting to see the full probability breakdown: cut 50bp, cut 25bp, hold, and hike.
The Bayesian Shift Panel
Every time a major indicator releases — CPI on the 12th, NFP on the first Friday, PCE near month-end — the panel shows you two bars: where probabilities stood before the print (prior), and where they should stand after applying the Bayesian update (posterior). The gap between bars is the information content of that release. When Kalshi doesn't move as much as the model says it should, that's the trade.
The Sensitivity Table
Each indicator has a calibrated sensitivity coefficient — how many percentage points the cut probability moves per standard deviation of surprise. Core CPI: ±8pp per σ. NFP: ±6pp per σ. Core PCE: ±6.5pp per σ. These coefficients are calibrated from historical Kalshi market reactions to each release going back to 2022 (when Kalshi launched Fed rate markets) and cross-validated against CME FedWatch data going back to 2015.
How to Use This for Trading
The tool is a lens, not an oracle. Three use cases: (1) pre-release positioning — knowing which direction a surprise would push the market and whether current prices reflect consensus. (2) post-release reaction check — did Kalshi move as much as the Bayesian model says it should? If not, there's residual mispricing. (3) meeting-day positioning — with 24 hours to go, the Bayesian model shows cumulative probability shifts from all indicator releases since the last meeting. That cumulative shift vs. current Kalshi price is the thesis.
Data Sources
Probabilities: Kalshi prediction markets, polled every 5 minutes during market hours. Indicator data: FRED API (St. Louis Fed), free and publicly available. Consensus estimates: Trading Economics API. The model, methodology, and historical accuracy are all documented on the Historical Accuracy page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?
The Fed Rate Tracker shows the live Kalshi market-implied probability of a cut, hold, or hike at the next FOMC meeting, updated in real time. Read the nearest meeting in the rate-path timeline above for the current odds — the market re-prices after every CPI, NFP, and PCE release, and the Bayesian layer flags how far each print should move them.
What are the odds the Fed cuts rates in 2026?
Each of the 8 FOMC meetings in 2026 carries its own market-implied cut probability on Kalshi, shown in the timeline above. Rather than a single number, the tracker gives the full rate path — the cumulative probability the Fed has cut by a given meeting — so you can see where the market expects the first cut and how conviction builds across the year.
Will the Fed cut rates in 2026?
Prediction markets on Kalshi price the probability of a Fed rate cut at each FOMC meeting in real time. The Fed Rate Tracker shows these probabilities for all 8 meetings in 2026. As of the latest data, check the rate path timeline above for current cut probabilities.
What is the difference between this and CME FedWatch?
CME FedWatch uses federal funds futures prices. This tracker uses Kalshi prediction market contract prices. Both reflect market expectations, but prediction markets are binary contracts with direct probability interpretation — no interest rate math required. We also add a Bayesian layer that quantifies how each economic data release should shift the probabilities based on historical relationships.
How does the Bayesian model work?
Before each CPI, NFP, or PCE release, we snapshot the Kalshi market probabilities as the prior. When the data prints, we compute the surprise (actual minus consensus, normalized by historical standard deviation). We then apply Bayes' theorem: P(outcome | data) ∝ P(data | outcome) × P(outcome). The sensitivity table — calibrated from historical market reactions — provides the likelihood function. The result is a posterior probability distribution that incorporates both the market's prior view and the new information.
What economic indicators matter most for Fed rate decisions?
Core CPI and Core PCE are the most market-moving indicators — the Fed explicitly targets 2% PCE inflation. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) comes second under the dual mandate. A jobs surprise above 200K typically shifts cut probability down 4–8 percentage points. GDP, unemployment, and ISM manufacturing have medium impact. Consumer sentiment and Treasury yields provide supporting signals.
How often is this data updated?
Kalshi market probabilities are polled every 5 minutes during market hours and every 30 minutes off-hours. The Bayesian model updates automatically within 1 hour of each major economic data release. The page itself refreshes every 5 minutes via ISR (incremental static regeneration).
Get The 7 Oracles' daily edge — subscribe free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.