Fed Rate Tracker
Live FOMC hike, hold and cut odds from Kalshi, compared with Polymarket and futures, with every 2026 decision graded.
MACRO Β· FED
What does the market think the Fed will do next?
What is this?
The Federal Reserve controls interest rates, which affects the stock market, mortgages, crypto β basically everything. This tracker shows you the live prediction market odds for what the Fed will do at each upcoming meeting.
If you have a mortgage, a 401k, or any investments, understanding where rates are headed is basic financial literacy. This tool puts those odds in one place in plain English β no economics degree needed.
Real-World Example
β How to Read It
Say the tracker shows a 70% chance of a hike and a 30% chance of a hold at the next meeting. Every meeting gets its own row, and the numbers move with each data release. This is what real money β billions in positions β says will happen.
If you think the odds are wrong (maybe a hot CPI print or a weak jobs report), you can take the other side directly on Kalshi. If the market says 30% hold and you think it's 50%, that's a trade.
β Action: Check this before any Fed meeting. Compare to what pundits are saying on TV. The market usually knows more than the anchors.
Bottom line: Prediction markets price Fed decisions better than most Wall Street forecasters. Use this as your reality check.
Full guide βWhat is the federal funds rate right now?
The federal funds target range is 3.75%β4.00%, set at the Sep 15β16, 2026 FOMC meeting and effective Sept. 17, 2026. The Federal Reserve raised it by a quarter point from 3.50%β3.75%. The vote was 12β0, unanimous β the first increase since 2023, after Julyβs 9β3 hold in which three members dissented in favor of a hike. The next decision is Oct 27β28, 2026. Live prediction-market odds for that meeting are on this page.
Quick Answer
As of October 3, 2026, the prediction market's base case for the Oct 27β28, 2026 FOMC meeting (25 days out) is a hold. Kalshi implies a hike at 20% (25bp 19%, 50bp 1%), hold 79%, cut 1%. Current target range: 3.75%β4.00%.
What Is the Fed Rate Tracker?
The Fed Rate Tracker is the CME FedWatch tool rebuilt for prediction market traders. Instead of federal funds futures math, it reads Kalshi contract prices directly β a 62Β’ contract means 62% probability. No conversion required.
What makes it different: it puts three markets side by side β Kalshi, Polymarket and a probability derived from fed funds futures β keeps a daily record of all three since Aug. 15, and grades every decision against what each one priced. You can see who called it, not just what the market thinks now.
Rate Path
Numbers inside dots = market-implied probability % of that meeting's leading outcome (cut, hold, or hike β the label under each dot says which). Tap a meeting to see details.
Oct 27β28, 2026
25 days out Β· Market-implied probabilities from Kalshi
Last updated Oct 3, 4:00 AM UTC
Get the before/after odds the morning of every Fed-moving print β Kalshi, Polymarket and futures, side by side. Free.
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Economic Calendar
Next release
CPI
Mon, Oct 12 Β· 8:30 AM ET
In
Recent
The case for each side
Oct 27β28, 2026- β’Core CPI at or below 0.2% MoM β the last move is working
- β’Payrolls weak or unemployment rising
- β’Energy prices roll over and headline inflation cools
- β’Chair signals patience at the press conference
- β’Core CPI prints 0.3% MoM or hotter again β inflation not cooling
- β’Energy prices keep feeding headline inflation
- β’Payrolls solid (NFP 150K+) with unemployment flat
- β’Chair and dots keep signalling more tightening is needed
The leading outcome is listed first. Odds update as economic data prints.
Historical Accuracy
Full record β100%
Accuracy
3 of 3
Correct calls
3
Meetings graded
6 meetings resolved Β· 3 gradable β the rest have no retained pre-decision snapshot.
Accuracy = market-implied dominant outcome (from Kalshi) matches the Fed's actual decision. Compare to CME FedWatch for cross-validation.
Indicator Deep Dives
Cross-Market Divergence
Oct 27β28, 2026 Β· 25 days outThe same meeting, priced on 2 venues at once. On the outcome the market considers most likely, they disagree by 2.5pp.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Futures | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50bp+ cut | 0.3% | β | β |
| 25bp cut | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5pp |
| Hold | 82.5% | 80.0% | 2.5pp |
| 25bp hike | 17.5% | 20.0% | 2.5pp |
| 50bp+ hike | 0.4% | β | β |
Widest gap: 2.5pp on hold, between Futures and Polymarket.
Not compared: Kalshi prices this meeting as a cumulative rate level relative to today, not as the decision taken at the meeting itself β two 25bp moves at earlier meetings land in the same bucket. Those are different questions, so the number is shown on the timeline above rather than subtracted here.
Which venue has been right
- Sep 15β16, 2026 β actual: 25bp hike Β· Kalshi 86.5% Β· Polymarket 88.5% Β· Futures 94.3% Β· closest: Futures
Polymarket prices are from the international book. Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own order book β verify the price there before taking a position.
CME fed funds futures implied is derived from the CME fed funds futures curve using the published FedWatch methodology, anchored on the daily effective fed funds rate. It yields a single expected rate, so it is mapped onto a cut / hold / hike triple β it cannot express a 50bp outcome at all, and those cells read βββ rather than 0%.
Updated Oct 3, 12:00 AM ET Β· refreshes every 30 minutes.
Hike Watch
Oct 27β28, 2026 Β· 26 days outHike odds for Oct first closed above 50% on Aug 18, and sit at 20% today.
47 daily closes, starting Aug 15 β this series begins there because that is when we started keeping it, and it is not backfillable. Hike is HIKE-25 + HIKE-50 and cut is CUT-25 + CUT-50, each read off the Kalshi strike ladder independently, so the three need not sum to exactly 100%. Oct 27β28, 2026 detail β
SEP Dot Plot Watch
Dec 8β9, 2026 Β· 68 days outKalshiβs KXDOTPLOT ladder prices the Fedβs own forecast β the median projected federal funds rate for year-end 2026 in the Summary of Economic Projections. It is a different question from the rate decision itself: this is where the committee says rates are going, not what it does at this meeting.
Read this ladder carefully. Only 7 of 12 strikes have ever traded and the widest quote is 9Β’ wide, so treat each strike as a band rather than a price. And the ladder is not exhaustive: per the contractβs own clarification, if the Fed publishes no SEP at this meeting β or an SEP with no median year-end-2026 projection β every strike resolves No, not void. That risk sits inside all twelve prices at once, which is why they do not add to 100%. How KXDOTPLOT settles β
Kalshi Β· as of Oct 3, 12:00 AM ET
Who called it: every 2026 Fed decision vs. the prediction markets
Each venue's final price on the outcome that happened, from its last day before the announcement. Highest is closest.
| Meeting | Decision | Kalshi | Polymarket | Futures | Closest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27β28, 2026 | HOLD | not archived | not archived | not archived | β |
| Mar 17β18, 2026 | HOLD | not archived | not archived | not archived | β |
| Apr 28β29, 2026 | HOLD | not archived | not archived | not archived | β |
| Jun 16β17, 2026 | HOLD | 98% | not archived | not archived | β |
| Jul 28β29, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | not archived | not archived | β |
| Sep 15β16, 2026 | HIKE 25 | 87% | 89% | 94% | Futures |
The three-venue archive starts Aug. 15, 2026; earlier meetings carry Kalshi's final only where a pre-decision snapshot was kept. Oct 27β28, 2026 is next β the daily three-venue series is building now.
Get the before/after odds the morning of every Fed-moving print β free.
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Related Tools
Related Reads & Boards
How to Read the Fed Rate Tracker
The Rate Path Timeline at the top shows all 8 FOMC meetings in 2026. The number inside each dot is the market-implied probability of that meeting's leading outcome β cut, hold or hike, as the label under the dot says. Green = cut leads, gray = hold leads, orange = hike leads. Tap any meeting to see the full probability breakdown: cut 50bp, cut 25bp, hold, hike 25bp and hike 50bp.
Hike Watch and the daily record
Every major release β CPI, the jobs report, PCE β moves the next meeting's odds, and every move is kept. Hike Watch draws the daily closes for the next meeting, so you can see exactly what each print did, and the history page holds the same record for every meeting since Aug. 15 alongside the graded finals.
The Sensitivity Table
Each indicator has a calibrated sensitivity coefficient β how many percentage points the next-meeting odds shift toward a hike (hot print) or a cut (soft print) per standard deviation of surprise. Core CPI: Β±8pp per Ο. NFP: Β±6pp per Ο. Core PCE: Β±6.5pp per Ο. These coefficients are calibrated from historical Kalshi market reactions to each release going back to 2022 (when Kalshi launched Fed rate markets) and cross-validated against CME FedWatch data going back to 2015.
Every Indicator We Track
Each release has its own page β the calibrated sensitivity, the release calendar, and how Kalshi has historically repriced against it:
- Core CPI (ex Food & Energy)
- CPI (All Items)
- Core PCE Price Index
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
- Real GDP (Advance)
- Manufacturing Employment
- Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
- 10-Year Treasury Yield
- 2-Year Treasury Yield
How to Use This for Trading
The tool is a lens, not an oracle. Three use cases: (1) pre-release positioning β knowing which direction a surprise would push the market and whether current prices reflect consensus. (2) post-release reaction check β did Kalshi move as much as the indicator's sensitivity coefficient says it should? If not, there's residual mispricing. (3) meeting-day positioning β with 24 hours to go, Hike Watch shows how far the odds have travelled since the last meeting, and the three-venue board shows whether Kalshi, Polymarket and futures agree. Where they split is the thesis.
The asymmetry is worth understanding before you size anything: a hike strike trading in the low single digits pays multiples if the committee turns, and the ladder reprices violently once dissent goes public. We walked through that convexity β entry, target, exit and the theta math β in the Kalshi Fed hike convexity breakdown. The mechanics travel to any meeting on the ladder above. For the September meeting the market called, the September 2026 hike piece grades what Kalshi, Polymarket and futures priced side by side, which was closest, and how the contract got there.
Data Sources
Probabilities: Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets and CME fed funds futures, pulled every 30 minutes. Indicator data: FRED API (St. Louis Fed), free and publicly available. Consensus estimates: Trading Economics API. The model, methodology, and historical accuracy are all documented on the Historical Accuracy page.
Put this tracker in your work
Both of these are free and stay live β the numbers update every 30 minutes from the same pipeline this page reads. The only condition is attribution.
Embed the tracker
A live, zero-JavaScript card for your own site. Resizes itself to its container, so it works in a sidebar as well as a full-width column.
Get the embed code βFree JSON API
No key, no account, CORS open to any origin. Cached five minutes at the edge.
GET https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/fed-rate-tracker/public
fetch('https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/fed-rate-tracker/public')
.then(r => r.json())
.then(d => console.log(d.nextMeeting.probabilities))Returns the next meeting, the full 2026 rate path and the current fed funds rate. Attribution required, verbatim: βData from Kalshi prediction markets. Tool by predictionmarketspicks.comβ
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the federal funds rate right now?
The federal funds target range is 3.75%β4.00%, set at the Sep 15β16, 2026 FOMC meeting and effective Sept. 17, 2026. The Federal Reserve raised it by a quarter point from 3.50%β3.75%. The vote was 12β0, unanimous β the first increase since 2023, after Julyβs 9β3 hold in which three members dissented in favor of a hike. The next decision is Oct 27β28, 2026. Live prediction-market odds for that meeting are on this page.
What is the Fed dot plot, and can you trade it?
The dot plot is the chart inside the Fedβs quarterly Summary of Economic Projections showing where each FOMC participant thinks the federal funds rate should be at the end of each year. It is a forecast, not a decision β which is exactly why it moves markets separately from the rate announcement itself. Kalshi lists it as KXDOTPLOT, a ladder of βwill the median year-end 2026 projection be above X%β contracts. The September 2026 ladder settled on the SEP published with the September 16 hike (median 2026 dot 4.1%: strikes through 4.00% paid Yes, 4.10% and up paid No); the December ladder is live. The SEP Dot Plot Watch panel on this page shows the live ladder and the median it implies. Two things to know before trading it: the book is thin, with wide bidβask spreads that make each individual strike a band rather than a price; and the ladder is not exhaustive β if the Fed publishes no SEP, or an SEP without a median year-end-2026 projection, every strike resolves No rather than voiding.
Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?
The market prices that question meeting by meeting, and the answer moves with the data. The rate-path timeline above shows the live Kalshi-implied probability of a hike, hold or cut at every remaining 2026 FOMC meeting β including the later-year meetings, where hike pricing has been the more active side. Each print re-prices the whole path, and every move is kept in the daily archive.
Do Kalshi and Polymarket price Fed meetings the same way?
Not quite, and the difference matters more than the prices do. Kalshiβs KXFED contracts ask whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate will be above a given level FOLLOWING a meeting β a cumulative question, so two separate 25bp moves at earlier meetings land in the same bucket as one 50bp move. Polymarketβs per-meeting ladders ask what the Fed does AT that meeting. For the next meeting on the calendar the two coincide exactly, because no decision comes between now and then; for later meetings they do not, and subtracting one from the other produces a gap of tens of points that is pure definition rather than genuine disagreement. The Cross-Market Divergence panel on this page compares the venues only where they are answering the same question, adds a third reference derived from CME fed funds futures, and shows the remaining spread in percentage points. Polymarket figures come from its international book, which is a separate order book from Polymarket US.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in October 2026?
The October 27β28 meeting ends with the rate decision at 2 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 28, followed by Chair Kevin Warshβs press conference at 2:30. It has its own page with the full strike ladder, the market-implied hike, hold and cut probabilities, and how they have moved as the data landed. Read it at /tools/fed-rate-tracker/october-2026 β the figures update every 30 minutes from Kalshi, so the page is the number rather than anything quoted here. The September meeting is settled and graded: the Fed raised to 3.75%β4.00% on Sept. 16, and the receipt across all three venues is at /tools/fed-rate-tracker/september-2026.
Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?
The Fed Rate Tracker shows the live Kalshi market-implied probability of a cut, hold, or hike at the next FOMC meeting, updated in real time. Read the nearest meeting in the rate-path timeline above for the current odds β the market re-prices after every CPI, NFP and PCE release, and the Hike Watch series shows how far each one moved it.
What are the odds the Fed cuts rates in 2026?
Each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting carries its own market-implied cut, hold and hike probabilities on Kalshi, shown in the timeline above; the six already decided are graded on the history page. After the Fed hiked on Sept. 16 the market leans toward further hikes, not cuts, so any cut odds are small. Rather than a single number, the tracker gives the full rate path, so you can see which way the market expects the next move and how conviction builds across the year.
Will the Fed cut rates in 2026?
Prediction markets on Kalshi price the probability of a Fed rate cut at each FOMC meeting in real time. The Fed Rate Tracker shows these probabilities for every remaining 2026 meeting, and grades the ones already decided. Check the rate path timeline above for the current cut, hold and hike odds at each meeting.
What is the difference between this and CME FedWatch?
CME FedWatch uses federal funds futures prices. This tracker uses Kalshi prediction market contract prices. Both reflect market expectations, but prediction markets are binary contracts with direct probability interpretation β no interest rate math required. We also compare Kalshi with Polymarket and a futures-derived probability side by side, keep a daily archive of all three since Aug. 15, and grade each venue after every decision.
How do you grade the markets?
After each decision, every venue is scored on its closing price from its last trading day before the announcement. The venue that put the highest probability on what the Fed actually did is the closest. The full record β Kalshi, Polymarket and futures, meeting by meeting β is at /tools/fed-rate-tracker/history, and the daily series behind it starts Aug. 15, 2026.
What economic indicators matter most for Fed rate decisions?
Core CPI and Core PCE are the most market-moving indicators β the Fed explicitly targets 2% PCE inflation. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) comes second under the dual mandate. A jobs surprise above 200K typically shifts the odds 4β8 percentage points toward a hike. GDP, unemployment, and ISM manufacturing have medium impact. Consumer sentiment and Treasury yields provide supporting signals.
How often is this data updated?
Kalshi, Polymarket and futures prices are pulled every 30 minutes, around the clock. The page itself refreshes every 15 minutes, and every day closes into the permanent archive.
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