Fed Rate Tracker
Live FOMC cut/hold/hike probabilities from Kalshi prediction markets. Bayesian model updates after every CPI, NFP, and PCE print.
What Is the Fed Rate Tracker?
The Fed Rate Tracker is the CME FedWatch tool rebuilt for prediction market traders. Instead of federal funds futures math, it reads Kalshi contract prices directly — a 62¢ contract means 62% probability. No conversion required.
What makes it different: after every CPI, NFP, and PCE print, the Bayesian model runs automatically. It computes the surprise (how far the actual data deviated from consensus), applies the historical sensitivity coefficient, and publishes an updated posterior probability distribution. You see exactly how much the market should move — and can compare that to how it actually moved.
Phase 1: Data pipeline launching soon. Kalshi market probabilities and FRED indicator data will populate automatically. Meeting structure is live — check back after the next FOMC market opens on Kalshi.
2026 Rate Path
Numbers inside dots = market-implied cut probability %. Tap a meeting to see details.
May 6–7, 2026
No market data yetKalshi Fed rate market data will appear here once trading begins.
Economic Calendar
Next release
Nonfarm Payrolls
Fri, Apr 3 · 8:30 AM ET
In
Bull / Bear Case
May 6–7, 2026- •Core CPI prints below 0.2% MoM — inflation clearly returning to target
- •NFP below 100K — labor market cooling, unemployment ticking up
- •GDP disappoints — growth slowing faster than Fed projected
- •Fed chair signals concern about employment in Beige Book/speeches
- •Core PCE remains above 2.5% — inflation re-acceleration risk
- •NFP above 200K — labor market too strong to justify easing
- •GDP beats — economy growing above potential, no slack
- •Dollar weakens or oil spikes — secondary inflation pressures mount
Cases update automatically as economic data prints. Bayesian model adjusts probabilities in real time.
Historical Accuracy
Full record →Tracking starts with the next FOMC meeting.
Once Kalshi markets resolve, this scorecard builds automatically. The Bayesian model's predictive accuracy vs. final outcomes will be tracked here.
Accuracy = market-implied dominant outcome (from Kalshi) matches the Fed's actual decision. Compare to CME FedWatch for cross-validation.
Indicator Deep Dives
Related Tools
How to Read the Fed Rate Tracker
The Rate Path Timeline at the top shows all 8 FOMC meetings in 2026. The number inside each dot is the market-implied probability of a cut (any size). Green = cut likely, gray = hold likely, orange = hike likely. Tap any meeting to see the full probability breakdown: cut 50bp, cut 25bp, hold, and hike.
The Bayesian Shift Panel
Every time a major indicator releases — CPI on the 12th, NFP on the first Friday, PCE near month-end — the panel shows you two bars: where probabilities stood before the print (prior), and where they should stand after applying the Bayesian update (posterior). The gap between bars is the information content of that release. When Kalshi doesn't move as much as the model says it should, that's the trade.
The Sensitivity Table
Each indicator has a calibrated sensitivity coefficient — how many percentage points the cut probability moves per standard deviation of surprise. Core CPI: ±8pp per σ. NFP: ±6pp per σ. Core PCE: ±6.5pp per σ. These coefficients are calibrated from historical Kalshi market reactions to each release going back to 2022 (when Kalshi launched Fed rate markets) and cross-validated against CME FedWatch data going back to 2015.
How to Use This for Trading
The tool is a lens, not an oracle. Three use cases: (1) pre-release positioning — knowing which direction a surprise would push the market and whether current prices reflect consensus. (2) post-release reaction check — did Kalshi move as much as the Bayesian model says it should? If not, there's residual mispricing. (3) meeting-day positioning — with 24 hours to go, the Bayesian model shows cumulative probability shifts from all indicator releases since the last meeting. That cumulative shift vs. current Kalshi price is the thesis.
Data Sources
Probabilities: Kalshi prediction markets, polled every 5 minutes during market hours. Indicator data: FRED API (St. Louis Fed), free and publicly available. Consensus estimates: Trading Economics API. The model, methodology, and historical accuracy are all documented on the Historical Accuracy page.
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