Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 2.5 (59% to win); the Bengals won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Texans at 59c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 2.5 (59% to win). The Bengals won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Texans: 0c — we archived the Texans at 59c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 59c on Sep 20. The market did not move on our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
A week after two catches for twelve yards, Ja’Marr Chase caught seven for 75 and two touchdowns — a 32-yard toe-drag over Derek Stingley and an 18-yarder in front of a diving Reed Blankenship. C.J. Stroud threw 55 times for 353 yards and Houston outgained Cincinnati by more than a hundred; it reached the red zone four times without scoring and failed on all four fourth downs. Schultz caught twelve of fourteen targets for 140 yards, which is the number this page has to answer for.
Bengals 20—Texans 6
Final✗ Call missedThe chip grades the stored probability, which had Houston at 58.8% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 2.5-point margin — and Houston lost, so it reads a miss. The model’s own read was worse: Houston by 4.1, a point and a half further onto the losing side than the market, and no position was published — the lean was on the same side as the price, no weekly-edges ledger row exists for 2026_02_CIN_HOU, and the board published the read in points. That is the game-level record: a market miss and a larger model miss with nothing traded. The player board is the part that has to be owned, because it was published three ways and lost all three. The final board carried five Dalton Schultz unders — under 39.5 and under 49.5 receiving yards at 51.5c and 36c, STRONG, on a 35.1 projection; under 4.5 and 5.5 receptions at 55c and 39.5c, STRONG and HIGH, and under 6.5 at 24c, HIGH, on a 4.11 projection — and Schultz caught twelve for 140. Zero for five, and the five were one opinion. The same call was the featured play on this matchup page, in lib/nfl/game-play.ts: Schultz under 5 receptions, NO at 45c, PLAY, described there as the widest position on the 1 PM card and, in the card’s own words, a model position and not a consensus one — the card said plainly that the three books pricing the strike had the over near 57% and were against us. They were right and the model was wrong, by seven catches. The honest read is not that the market moved toward us on the price (it barely did) or that open interest went from about 970 to 7,700 (it did); it is that a room in which Stroud throws 55 times is a room in which the tight end’s catch count is not a 4.11 event, and the game script that produced 55 attempts — Houston trailing and stalling in the red zone — is exactly the script an under on the checkdown target should have feared. Cincinnati carried no PLAY rows. Fourteen WATCH rows went eight and six and are graded apart; Mike Gesicki’s WATCH row does not appear in the box score at all.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 1 to 45.5; the game landed on 26.
Q1
Neither team scored in the first quarter. Cincinnati’s first drive got Chase fourteen yards, more than he had all of Week 1, and Zac Taylor, Joe Burrow and Dan Pitcher had said during the week that getting him the ball was the priority. Burrow was playing through back tightness that cost him practice time.
Q2
With about three and a half minutes left in the half, Chase dragged a toe in bounds on a 32-yard touchdown over Derek Stingley for 7-0. Burrow said he thought Chase was falling down and was about to argue for interference when he stayed up and got two feet in. Ka’imi Fairbairn cut it to 7-3 from 37 with 1:17 left.
Q3
Evan McPherson hit from 51 with 12:28 left in the third, and with 3:03 to go Burrow found Chase again, an 18-yarder in the end zone in front of a diving Reed Blankenship, for 17-3. Fairbairn answered from 45. Houston would finish the day with 374 yards to Cincinnati’s 267 and twelve fewer points.
Q4
McPherson’s 57-yarder with 12:16 left made it 20-6 and closed the scoring. Stroud finished 30 of 55 for 353 with no touchdowns and no interceptions and was sacked four times; Schultz caught twelve of his fourteen targets for 140. Houston reached the red zone four times and scored on none of them. Chase Brown carried twenty times for 80 for Cincinnati, and Tee Higgins added five catches for 95.
Reporting verified 2026-09-20. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Ja’Marr Chase scores 2 TDs on passes from Joe Burrow to lead the Bengals past the Texans 20-6 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
What a trader actually pays, not the mid — the ask to buy a YES, 100 minus the bid to buy a NO. A disagreement is not a guarantee.
5+ receptions — NO
The widest position on the 1 PM card and the one the market has moved toward us on — open interest went from roughly 970 to 7,700 in a day while the price barely moved. Worth stating plainly: the three books that price this strike put the over near 57%, so they are against us here. This is a model position, not a consensus one.
Where to rest it: Rest the NO at 45. It has been filling all day at that level and the book is two cents wide; there is no reason to cross for it.
No book consensus at this exact strike — this stands on our own number. Price read 2026-09-18 23:00 UTC · KXNFLREC-26SEP20CINHOU-HOUDSCHULTZ86-5
Cincinnati arrives 1-0 after a turnover-fuelled 33-27 home win over Tampa Bay, while Houston opened 0-1 with a 36-31 home loss to Buffalo in which its top-ranked 2025 defense surrendered 7.9 yards per play. Joe Burrow has practiced limited on back-to-back days with back tightness and says he expects to play; Texans No. 1 receiver Nico Collins was limited Wednesday and absent from Thursday's practice. The headline duel is Ja'Marr Chase against former LSU teammate Derek Stingley Jr., but the more decisive question may be whether Houston's rebuilt-then-reshuffled offensive line can hold up against Cincinnati's new interior.
Bengals pass offense · Texans secondary
Chase and Stingley were teammates on LSU's 2019 national championship team alongside Burrow, and Chase says the relationship goes back to high school. Stingley is the only cornerback in Texans history to earn AP first-team All-Pro honors and allowed a 43.3% completion rate when targeted, third-lowest among qualified defenders. But the last time these two met in the NFL — November 2023 in Cincinnati — Chase went for five catches, 124 yards and a touchdown. Chase is coming off a two-catch, 12-yard opener and says his knee feels "great."
Bengals pass protection · Texans edge rush
The Bengals return all five offensive line starters from 2025 — Orlando Brown Jr., Dalton Risner, Ted Karras, Dylan Fairchild and Amarius Mims — and Burrow has called that continuity "a big advantage early in the season." In Week 1 they made him the least-pressured quarterback in the league through the Sunday slate, allowing pressure on 19% of dropbacks despite Tampa Bay blitzing on nearly half of them. Houston's edge pair is the counterweight on paper — PFF ranked the Texans' defensive line No. 2 in the NFL — but Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter combined for half a sack against Buffalo, and Hunter drew one pressure on 25 rushes.
Source: SI/OnSI — Bengals OL dominates trenches vs. Buccaneers
Texans pass protection · Bengals defensive line
Houston spent the offseason attacking a long-running problem — signing Wyatt Teller, Braden Smith and Evan Brown, re-signing Ed Ingram — but the line that actually took the field Week 1 was not the one the money bought. Smith went on IR with a training-camp foot injury, Teller lost the left guard job outright (GM Nick Caserio said he "didn't have a strong camp"), and 33-year-old Trent Brown stayed at right tackle. Albert Breer said he remains "concerned that the position group that the Texans have needed to fix most the past couple of years is still in a wonky spot." Against a Bengals front that added Dexter Lawrence — who led all defensive tackles in pressure rate at 36% in Week 1 — and converted 57.1% of pressures into sacks, that is the game's most exposed seam. Ingram is a new concern with a groin injury.
Source: SI/OnSI — Texans announce surprising starting OL plan (Sept. 1, 2026)
Bengals quarterback situation
Burrow was limited Wednesday and again Thursday with what he calls back tightness, though reporting indicates he practiced noticeably more on Thursday than Wednesday. He has said he expects to play and called the idea of sitting out "ridiculous." The contingency is unusually strong: Joe Flacco re-signed and started 10 games for Cincinnati in 2025 after Burrow's toe injury, throwing for 2,479 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and earning his first Pro Bowl selection. Burrow has missed significant time in three of his six NFL seasons, which is why this is a live question rather than a formality.
Source: NFL.com — Burrow dealing with back soreness, expects to play
Texans run offense · Bengals run defense
Montgomery — acquired from Detroit this offseason and unambiguously a Texan in 2026 — opened with 20 carries for 60 yards plus three catches for 19, and scored three total touchdowns, a franchise record for a season opener. Woody Marks is a real committee partner rather than a handcuff, taking nine carries for 42 yards with five forced missed tackles and out-grading Montgomery at PFF (74.7 to 72.6). Houston ran for 188 yards as a team. Cincinnati's answer is a rebuilt interior: the Bengals held Tampa Bay to 89 rushing yards and got 77.6 from Lawrence, though Jonathan Allen (39.6) and B.J. Hill (33.1) graded poorly and Hill's status is now in question.
Source: Yahoo/SI — Marks and Montgomery PFF grades (Sept. 16, 2026)
Bengals run offense · Texans run defense
Chase Brown is Cincinnati's clear lead back after a 1,019-yard rushing season in 2025 at 4.29 a carry, plus a team-record 69 receptions. He was held to 16 carries for 56 yards in the opener. Houston's run defense is the part of its unit that did not collapse against Buffalo — the damage was almost entirely through the air — and the front is anchored by Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Togiai behind an edge pair that graded far better against the run than as rushers. Cincinnati's depth is thinning: Samaje Perine did not practice Thursday with a knee issue, which would push Tahj Brooks into the rotation.
Source: Bengals.com — Week 1 postgame recap, notes and quotes
Texans pass offense · Bengals pass defense
Stroud opened efficiently — 26 of 38 for 274 yards and two touchdowns, with Bengals.com noting a 75.7% accuracy figure against 59.7% in 2025 — but he fumbled twice, including a Greg Rousseau strip-sack late, and faced pressure on 33.3% of 48 dropbacks. If Collins cannot go, Houston is down to Kayshon Boutte outside, Xavier Hutchinson and Jared Wayne at Z, and rookie Jaylin Noel in the slot, with Jayden Higgins already lost to a torn ACL. Cincinnati's coverage is not airtight either: Jordan Battle graded 39.3 in Week 1, and Sharp Football's worksheet flagged the secondary as the reason to expect points. Tight end Dalton Schultz sat Wednesday for rest.
Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: Bengals.com 2026 opponent preview: Houston Texans · Local 12 — Chase on his quiet opener and the Stingley reunion (Sept. 17, 2026) · Covers game overview — Chase Week 1 line · SI/OnSI — Bengals OL dominates trenches vs. Buccaneers · Bengals.com Week 2 scouting report · SI/OnSI — 10 Texans tidbits, Week 1 demise (Sept. 14, 2026) · PFF 2026 NFL defensive line rankings · SI/OnSI — Texans announce surprising starting OL plan (Sept. 1, 2026) · Sportsnaut — Breer concerned about Texans OL (Sept. 15, 2026) · SI/OnSI — New Bengals stars wow with PFF grades · Sharp Football Analysis Week 2 worksheet · NFL.com — Burrow dealing with back soreness, expects to play
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
CIN
+1.5
HOU
+0.8
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Bengals
41%
fair value (books)
Texans
59%
fair value (books)
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Madden 27
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Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 — the graded call is above.
The Bengals travel to face the Texans in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Texans 13th of 32 at +0.8 (Average tier) and the Bengals 9th at +1.5 (Playoff tier) — a 0.7-point gap that home field widens to a 4-point line on the Texans, 61% to win. It rates as the 14th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Texans grade -0.5 on offense (21st of 32) and +0.8 on defense (6th); the Bengals +1.6 (11th) and -0.9 (17th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Texans at 7.3 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Bengals at 9.9 (favored in 11) — 2.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Texans' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Bengals'.
Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Texans' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2023: Texans won 30-27 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Texans are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Texans here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CINHOU, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Texans 59%, Bengals 41%. Applying our 2 points net of the book's spread floor, that makes Texans contracts a buy at 57c or below and Bengals contracts a buy at 39c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 59% for the Texans. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Texans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 58% 58c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Bengals won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Texans by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Bengals. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CINHOU market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Bengals offense (+1.6, 11th of 32) against Texans defense (+0.8, 6th) — 0.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CINHOU on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Texans at 57c or below, or the Bengals at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Houston Texans on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Texans at 7.3 wins (favored in 11) and the Bengals at 9.9 (favored in 11). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Bengals', by win probability.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CINHOU yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Texans at 57c or below or the Bengals at 39c or below, off a 4-point line.
This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CINHOU has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Texans at 61% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Lions at BillsBills −4
Panthers at FalconsFalcons −4
Saints at RavensRavens −5.5
Vikings at BearsBears −6
Steelers at PatriotsPatriots −7
Packers at JetsPackers −2.5
Browns at BuccaneersBuccaneers −4.5
Eagles at TitansEagles −3
Jaguars at BroncosBroncos −0.5
Raiders at ChargersChargers −6.5
Seahawks at CardinalsSeahawks −6
Commanders at CowboysCowboys −4.5
Dolphins at 49ers49ers −6.5
Colts at ChiefsChiefs −2.5
Giants at RamsRams −7.5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
