Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

The model does not think this one is close. The Seahawks rate 3rd of 32 at +5.2, the Cardinals 30th at -3.6, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Seahawks by 11.5 — 80% to win. That is the 1st-widest gap among the 15 games on the Week 9 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Cardinals need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (29th) — 5.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.8, 4th), a 2.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against -0.1 (30th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Seahawks at 10.8 wins (favored in 16 of 17) and the Cardinals at 6.4 (favored in 3) — 4.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Seahawks' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Cardinals'. It is the softest spot on the Seahawks' entire schedule.

On the calendar, the Cardinals are on 7 days and the Seahawks are on 6 days. The Seahawks are 3 games into a home stand. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.

On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 2, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC West race.

A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 139 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 75-80% range won 74% of those. So a 80% Seahawks number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 26 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.

There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08ARISEA — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Seahawks YES is only worth buying at 75c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 80%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Cardinals at 15c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Full division picture on the NFC West hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.