Cardinals vs Seahawks Prediction — Week 9, Sun Nov 8
Updated · market price
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, Kalshi implies 86% for the Seahawks in Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 9 2026, while the market line has the Seahawks by 11.5 (84% to win) — a 1.5pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Seahawks by 11.0 against a market line of Seahawks by 11.5 — a 0.5-point lean toward the Cardinals, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →
Week 9 · 2026-10-30No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
ARI
-4.4
SEA
+4.1
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 9 card free, every game priced against the market.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Cardinals
16%
fair value (books)
Seahawks
84%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
36%
Madden 27
64%
Madden 27
Run the numbers yourself
All tools →Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL game priced against the live Kalshi line, every week — $150/yr
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Cardinals at Seahawks How to read the Ladder →
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Share this Oracle Ladder
Cardinals vs Seahawks power ratings (Week 9) What PWR measures →
Cardinals and Seahawks season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Cardinals vs Seahawks — player pages
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Why the model has the Seahawks by 11
The model does not think this one is close. The Seahawks rate 1st of 32 at +4.1, the Cardinals 31st at -4.4, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Seahawks by 11 — 77% to win. That is the widest gap among the 15 games on the Week 9 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Cardinals need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +0.6 (14th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -3.8 (30th) — 4.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.6, 22nd) meets the Seahawks defense (+2.3, 2nd), a 2.9-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.1, 1st in the league, against -0.0 (29th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Seahawks at 10.1 wins (favored in 14 of 17) and the Cardinals at 6.0 (favored in 2) — 4.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Seahawks' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Cardinals'. Nothing on the Cardinals' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the calendar, the Cardinals are on 7 days and the Seahawks are on 6 days. The Seahawks are 3 games into a home stand. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 2, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC West race.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 139 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 75-80% range won 74% of those. So a 77% Seahawks number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 26 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08ARISEA contract implies 86% for the Seahawks against a fair value (books) of 84% — a 1.5-point gap. That is inside our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), so we pass — the market and the fair value are telling the same story.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Cardinals vs Seahawks on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV08ARISEA
- Market-implied (Seahawks)
- 86c · 86%
- Fair value — books (Seahawks)
- 84%
- Fair value vs market
- -1.5pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV08ARISEA. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 86c on the Seahawks is an implied 86% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 84%, a 1.5pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Cardinals vs Seahawks line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 9, had the Seahawks −13.5 (DraftKings). The median across 4 books now is the Seahawks −11. On Kalshi the Seahawks trade at 86¢ to win, a 86% implied chance.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Seahawks −13.5 · O/U 45.5Sep 9 | Seahawks −10.5 · O/U 44.5 | |
| FanDuel | Seahawks −11.5 · O/U 44.5Oct 27 | Seahawks −11.5 · O/U 44.5 | |
| Caesars | Seahawks −13 · O/U 44.5Sep 9 | Seahawks −11 · O/U 44.5 | |
| BetRivers | Seahawks −11.5 · O/U 44.5Oct 27 | Seahawks −11.5 · O/U 44.5 | |
| Novig | Seahawks −11.5 · O/U 44.5Oct 29 | not posted now | |
| Kalshi | a contract, not a spread | Seahawks 86¢ to win |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.
Where Cardinals vs Seahawks trades Why the venues differ →
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Seahawks | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 86% 86c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 84% 84c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book | 86% 86c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 86% 86c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 86% 86c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Cardinals at Seahawks
Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 10:39 AM ET
| Game lines | Kalshi10:44 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner10:39 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals to win | 16¢16.9¢ after fees | 15.3¢16.1¢ after fees | Even |
| Seahawks to win | 86¢86.8¢ after fees | 86.3¢87.1¢ after fees | Even |
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US lists 396 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first score, first touchdown, double result, exact margin, race to points).
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Embed this game on your site
A live tile locked to Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×320
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026/hero" width="560" height="320" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×340
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="340" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
MPU · ad slot · 300×250
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026/mpu" width="300" height="250" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026/leaderboard" width="728" height="90" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Embed this game’s spread ladder
A live card locked to Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×300
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026/hero" width="560" height="300" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×280
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="280" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cardinals vs Seahawks, Week 9 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cardinals-vs-seahawks-week-09-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Watch the breakdown: Cardinals vs Seahawks
4:12Why Jadarian Price will win NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year award (and why you should buy NOW)Sep 9, 2026
ShortCardinals vs Raiders Preseason: Why We Took the Over 42.5 on KalshiAug 13, 2026
45:52NFL Win Totals 2026: Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns & Raiders | Fade the Field Ep. 14Jul 28, 2026Cardinals vs Seahawks — frequently asked
Who will win Seahawks vs Cardinals?
The market line has the Seahawks at 84% to beat the Cardinals in Week 9.
Who is favored in Cardinals vs Seahawks in Week 9?
The market line has the Seahawks by 11.5 points, a 84% win probability over the Cardinals (our model's own line: Seahawks by 11). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08ARISEA market implies 86% for the Seahawks — a 1.5pp agreement with the market line.
What would it take for the Cardinals to win?
The 11-point line comes from a 8.5-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Cardinals still project at 16% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Cardinals defense (-3.8, 30th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Cardinals vs Seahawks?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08ARISEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Seahawks YES is quoted around 86c against a fair value (books) of 84%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Seahawks host the Cardinals?
Arizona Cardinals visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, November 8, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 9, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
What does the model project for the Seahawks and Cardinals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.1 wins (favored in 14) and the Cardinals at 6.0 (favored in 2). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Cardinals', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Cardinals vs Seahawks?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV08ARISEA. The Seahawks YES contract sits around 86c, which is an implied 86% — against our books-anchored fair value of 84%. That is a 1.5pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Cardinals vs Seahawks on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 9 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08ARISEA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 77% on a team like the Seahawks?
74% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 75-80% range 139 times, and those teams won 74% of them. The Seahawks at 77% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 11-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Cardinals vs Seahawks ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
Is Cardinals moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 16% against a market price implying 15%, an edge of +1.5 points. Model 16% vs market 15% on ARI. We pass — no position.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 9 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 2. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Cardinals–Seahawks, Week 2 →
After this one
More Week 9 matchups
Jaguars at RavensModel: Ravens −1
Bengals at FalconsModel: Bengals −2.5
Broncos at PanthersModel: Broncos −1
Cowboys at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5
Jets at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5
Lions at DolphinsModel: Lions −2.5
Browns at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5
Giants at EaglesModel: Giants −2.5
Rams at CommandersModel: Rams −2.5
Texans at ChargersModel: Texans −1
Raiders at 49ersModel: 49ers −9
Packers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −3
Buccaneers at BearsModel: Bears −5
Bills at VikingsModel: Vikings −1Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- NFL Week 8 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 9 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 7 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket US → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Game-winner, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or game-winner price into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale