2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL Prediction Market Analytics
DAEPA-powered game edges, team power rankings, and player projections — identifying where Kalshi is wrong on NFL markets.
66.2% accuracy · 6,218 games validated · Walk-forward backtest, no hindsight · Methodology →
All NFL Tools
NFL Predictions
NEWFree — model win probability vs. market on every game, all 18 weeks
Kalshi NFL Markets
NEWFree — how Kalshi prices every NFL market + live model edges
Polymarket NFL
NEWFree — Polymarket NFL lines, futures + US access
DraftKings Predictions NFL
NEWFree — DraftKings’ CFTC prediction market for NFL
FanDuel Predicts NFL
NEWFree — FanDuel’s CME-listed NFL event contracts
Robinhood NFL
NEWFree — NFL event contracts + combos on Robinhood
Game Edges
NEW SEASONWeek 1 drops Sept — moneyline + spread + total vs. Kalshi
Team Hubs
NEWFree — all 32 teams: win total, schedule, market edge
Division Hubs
NEWFree — all 8 divisions: odds, win totals, standings
Schedule & Matchups
NEWFree — all 18 weeks, every game: model vs. market
Power Rankings
All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
Player Projections
Weekly DAEPA + injury adjusted
Championship Edges
Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
Win Total Futures
Season wins vs. Kalshi line
MVP Edges
Live MVP market mispricings
Stat Tiles
NEWFree — RZ conversion, RB opportunity share, passing efficiency
Mispricing Scanner
Cross-platform NFL mispricings — Kalshi vs. DK vs. Poly
Methodology
66.2% accuracy, explained
Fantasy Draft Kit
Free — 2026 sleepers & busts vs. consensus ADP
Best Ball ADP Values
Free — most over- & underdrafted players on Underdog
Stat Tiles
Full-season NFL visuals — free to embed
Red zone conversion
Who actually finishes drives — red-zone pass attempts vs. touchdown rate. Bubble size = total passing TDs.
RB opportunity share
Bell cows vs. committee — share of team backfield opportunities (carries + targets), colored by efficiency.
This Week's Model Lines vs Market
Week 1 · our DAEPA model line beside the live prediction-market price, every game · free
Model line = PMP Gridiron Edge favorite & spread. Market = Kalshi-implied probability for that side. Edge = model − market, in percentage points (a positive number means the model likes the favorite more than the market does). The market column fills in as Kalshi posts each game — Week 1 markets are live now.
This Week's Top Edges
Edges populate each Wednesday once the season starts
Game edges drop Week 1 — September 2026. Subscribe to be notified →
Power Rankings
Full 32-team table →Every team & division
All 32 teams →Gridiron Edge — NFL Analytics FAQ
What is Gridiron Edge?
Gridiron Edge is an NFL analytics system built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), a proprietary metric that adjusts a team's efficiency for the quality of opponents faced. It identifies edges between DAEPA-implied win probabilities and Kalshi prediction market prices.
How does Gridiron Edge find NFL prediction market edges?
Gridiron Edge compares its DAEPA-derived win probability estimate to the current Kalshi contract price. When the model's probability diverges from the market price by 5pp or more, and the DAEPA signal agrees with the opening spread signal, it is flagged as an edge.
How accurate is Gridiron Edge?
In a walk-forward backtest of 6,218 NFL games from 2003–2025, Gridiron Edge achieved 66.2% win prediction accuracy with a 0.616 log loss — in line with the leading public opponent-adjusted efficiency benchmarks (~66%).
Do I need to be a Pro subscriber to use Gridiron Edge?
Power rankings and the methodology page are free. Weekly game edges, player projections, and win total futures require a Pro subscription at $14.99/month or $150/year.
Unlock full Gridiron Edge access
Game edges (ML/spread/total), championship edges, player projections, and futures — one Pro subscription.