2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL Prediction Market Analytics
DAEPA-powered game edges, team power rankings, and player projections — identifying where Kalshi is wrong on NFL markets.
59.6% accuracy · 3,266 games validated · Walk-forward backtest, no hindsight · Methodology →
This Week's Model Lines vs Market
Week 1 · our DAEPA model line beside the live prediction-market price, every game · free
Model line = PMP Gridiron Edge favorite & spread. Market = Kalshi-implied probability for that side. Edge = model − market, in percentage points (a positive number means the model likes the favorite more than the market does). The market column fills in as Kalshi posts each game — Week 1 markets are live now.
Draft with the model inside your AI assistant
Drafting this month? The same Gridiron Edge model runs a free fantasy draft desk your AI can call on the clock — ranked board, best available at your pick, sleepers and busts vs. consensus ADP. All eight tools answer with no key and no account.
Set up the draft assistant →The model’s top 10
PWR — points per game above an average team on a neutral field, from 27 seasons of opponent-adjusted EPA. Leader in gold.
1
Patriots
+5.5
Contender2
Seahawks
+5.5
Contender3
Rams
+5.1
Contender4
Bills
+3.8
Playoff5
Packers
+3.0
Playoff6
Jaguars
+2.6
Playoff7
Lions
+2.5
Playoff8
Eagles
+2.4
Playoff9
Texans
+2.0
Playoff10
Bears
+1.4
Playoff
Where the model disagrees
Our win probability minus the live prediction-market price, in percentage points. Biggest gaps first.
MIA @ LV
Model backs MIA · 62% vs 37% market
+26pp
MODERATE
BAL @ IND
Model backs IND · 58% vs 38% market
+21pp
MODERATE
WAS @ PHI
Model backs WAS · 38% vs 31% market
+7pp
MODERATE
NO @ DET
Model backs NO · 33% vs 27% market
+6pp
MODERATE
CHI @ CAR
Model backs CAR · 46% vs 41% market
+5pp
MODERATE
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Stat Tiles
Full-season NFL visuals — free to embed
Red zone conversion
Who actually finishes drives — red-zone pass attempts vs. touchdown rate. Bubble size = total passing TDs.
RB opportunity share
Bell cows vs. committee — share of team backfield opportunities (carries + targets), colored by efficiency.
Every team & division
All 32 teams →All NFL Tools
Everything Gridiron Edge publishes on the NFL — free tools, platform hubs, and Pro boards.
NFL Predictions
NEWFree — model win probability vs. market on every game, all 18 weeks
Kalshi NFL Markets
NEWFree — how Kalshi prices every NFL market + live model edges
Polymarket NFL
NEWFree — Polymarket NFL lines, futures + US access
DraftKings Predictions NFL
NEWFree — DraftKings’ CFTC prediction market for NFL
FanDuel Predicts NFL
NEWFree — FanDuel’s CME-listed NFL event contracts
Robinhood NFL
NEWFree — NFL event contracts + combos on Robinhood
Game Edges
FREEFree, always — moneyline + spread + total vs. Kalshi, every game
Player Props
NEWFree top rows — our projection vs the Kalshi prop line
Team Hubs
NEWFree — all 32 teams: win total, schedule, market edge
Division Hubs
NEWFree — all 8 divisions: odds, win totals, standings
Schedule & Matchups
NEWFree — all 18 weeks, every game: model vs. market
Power Rankings
All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
NFL Power Ratings Tool
NEWFree — PWR board for all 32 teams (agent-callable)
NFL Win Probability
NEWFree — spread + total → win probability calculator
Player Projections
FREE — WEEK 1Weekly DAEPA + injury adjusted
Championship Edges
FREE — WEEK 1Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
Win Total Futures
FREE — WEEK 1Season wins vs. Kalshi line
MVP Edges
Live MVP market mispricings
Stat Tiles
NEWFree — RZ conversion, RB opportunity share, passing efficiency
Mispricing Scanner
Cross-platform NFL mispricings — Kalshi vs. DK vs. Poly
Methodology
59.6% accuracy, explained
Fantasy Draft Kit
Free — 2026 sleepers & busts vs. consensus ADP
Best Ball ADP Values
Free — most over- & underdrafted players on Underdog
Gridiron Edge — NFL Analytics FAQ
What is Gridiron Edge?
Gridiron Edge is an NFL analytics system built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), a proprietary metric that adjusts a team's efficiency for the quality of opponents faced. It identifies edges between DAEPA-implied win probabilities and Kalshi prediction market prices.
How does Gridiron Edge find NFL prediction market edges?
Gridiron Edge compares its DAEPA-derived win probability estimate to the current Kalshi contract price. When the model's probability diverges from the market price by 5pp or more, and the DAEPA signal agrees with the opening spread signal, it is flagged as an edge.
How accurate is Gridiron Edge?
In a walk-forward backtest of 3,266 NFL games from 2013–2024, Gridiron Edge achieved 59.6% straight-up win prediction accuracy with a 0.236 Brier score and a 0.664 log loss, using no market line as an input. Accuracy is not flat across its own confidence levels: it runs 51.6% on toss-ups and 71.5% on the games where the model flags an edge above 20%. That gradient, not the headline number, is what makes the model useful next to a market price.
Do I need to be a Pro subscriber to use Gridiron Edge?
Game edges are free — moneyline, spread and total against the Kalshi price on every game, no signup. Player projections, win total futures and championship probabilities are also fully open through Week 1; from September 15, 2026 those three boards show their top rows free and the full board is Pro at $14.99/month or $150/year. Power rankings and the methodology page are free year-round.
The Week 1 card, Thursday morning — our model against the Kalshi board, free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Game edges are free. Always.
Model win probability against the Kalshi price on every game, every week — no signup. Futures, championship and projections are fully open through Week 1 too. Pro is the layer around them: edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, the cross-market arb scanner, Thee Oracle, the commodity and crypto engines, and agent access to the same model over MCP.
More NFL model boards
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale