Cleveland Browns vs New York Giants
Sunday, December 20, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Giants by 3.5 in Cleveland Browns vs New York Giants, NFL Week 15 2026 — 60% to win, and a New York December game that has run a median 39°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20CLENYG yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Giants at 55c or below (or Browns at 35c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CLE
-2.0
NYG
-1.0
Browns
40%
model win prob
Giants
60%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC20CLENYGhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Giants at 55c or below, or the Browns at 35c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Cold-weather math: Browns at Giants in December
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 13 New York home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 39°F with 5 mph of wind, and 62% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 16°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees -1.0 for the Giants, -2.0 for the Browns, and lands on the Giants by 3.5 (60%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Giants grade -2.1 on that side of the ball (26th of 32) against a Browns offense at -3.7 (31st) — 1.6 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Giants offense (+1.0, 12th) meets the Browns defense (+1.9, 3rd), a 0.9-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.7 projected wins for the Giants against 7.9 for the Browns, favored in 6 and 6 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Browns'.
One team has owned this series: the Giants are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Giants won 21-15 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Giants are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 60% on the Giants here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20CLENYG, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Giants 60%, Browns 40%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Giants contracts a buy at 55c or below and Browns contracts a buy at 35c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Browns vs Giants — frequently asked
Who is favored in Browns vs Giants in Week 15?
Our power-rating model favors the Giants by 3.5 points, a 60% win probability over the Browns. The Giants rate 22nd of 32 (-1.0) and the Browns 25th (-2.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20CLENYG yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for New York games in December?
Across 13 New York home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 39°F with 5 mph wind, 62% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 16°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 3.5-point line.
How do you take a position on Browns vs Giants?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC20CLENYG on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Giants at 55c or below, or the Browns at 35c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Giants host the Browns?
Cleveland Browns visit the New York Giants on Sunday, December 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 15, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Giants and Browns this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Giants at 7.7 wins (favored in 6) and the Browns at 7.9 (favored in 6). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Browns', by model win probability.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 15 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 15 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.