Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Friday, December 25, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

Bills

47%

model win prob

Broncos

53%

model win prob

Model line

Broncos −1

Kalshi (Broncos)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Broncos — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Buffalo Bills+2.25thPlayoff

Denver Broncos+0.912thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 16, the Buffalo Bills travel to face the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Broncos 12th of 32 (Average tier, +0.9) and the Bills 5th (Playoff tier, +2.2). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Broncos by 1 — a 53% win probability for the Broncos.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 53% (Broncos) / 47% (Bills) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bills vs Broncos — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bills vs Broncos in Week 16?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Broncos by 1 points and gives them a 53% win probability over the Bills. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bills vs Broncos?

Home win probability 53% (Broncos), away 47% (Bills). That comes from a power-rating differential of -1.4 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Broncos rate 12th of 32 (Average tier), the Bills 5th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Bills vs Broncos on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.