Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos
Updated · model ratings
Friday, December 25, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 0.5 in Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 16 2026 — 50% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.6 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Broncos at 45c or below (or Bills at 45c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+3.8
DEN
+1.2
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Bills
50%
model win prob
Broncos
50%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
50%
Madden 27
50%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Broncos at 45c or below, or the Bills at 45c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bills at Broncos
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −6.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 more rungsBroncos −7.5 → Broncos −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Bills–Broncos is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Broncos rate +1.2 (12th of 32), the Bills +3.8 (4th) — 2.6 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 50%/50%, and this rates as the 1st-closest game of the 16 in Week 16. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.1 projected wins for the Broncos against 10.1 for the Bills, favored in 9 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 8th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Bills'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.1 (2nd of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.4 (8th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Bills defense (-0.7, 16th), a 1.3-point gap.
On the calendar, the Bills are on 6 days and the Broncos are on a 5-day turnaround. The Bills come in off the Bears, the Broncos off the Raiders. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Scheduling note: this is a Friday game — one of 3 that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Bills at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 50% / 50% — the tradable window is narrow: Broncos at 45c or below, Bills at 45c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Broncos on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN
- Market-implied (Broncos)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Broncos)
- 50%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Broncos at 45c or below, or the Bills at 45c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bills vs Broncos trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Broncos | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bills vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bills vs Broncos in Week 16?
Our power-rating model picks the Bills by 0.5 points, a 50% win probability over the Broncos, for a projected score of Bills 25, Broncos 24 on a ratings-implied 49.0-point total. The Broncos rate 12th of 32 (+1.2) and the Bills 4th (+3.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Broncos (+1.2, 12th) and Bills (+3.8, 4th) are only 2.6 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 50%/50%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Broncos?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 45c or below, or the Bills at 45c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the Denver Broncos on Friday, December 25, 2026 — a Friday game in NFL Week 16, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9) and the Bills at 10.1 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bills vs Broncos?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Broncos at 45c or below or the Bills at 45c or below, off a 0.5-point line.
Can you trade Bills vs Broncos on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 16 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 50% on a team like the Bills?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Bills at 50% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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