Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos
Friday, December 25, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 0.5 in Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 16 2026 — 51% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 3.0 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Broncos at 44c or below (or Bills at 46c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+4.2
DEN
+1.2
Bills
51%
model win prob
Broncos
49%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDENhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Broncos at 44c or below, or the Bills at 46c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Bills–Broncos is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Broncos rate +1.2 (13th of 32), the Bills +4.2 (4th) — 3.0 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 49%/51%, and this rates as the 3rd-closest game of the 16 in Week 16. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Bills at 10.3 (favored in 13) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Broncos' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Bills'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.0 (2nd of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.4 (8th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Bills defense (-0.2, 11th), a 0.8-point gap.
On the calendar, the Bills are on 6 days and the Broncos are on a 5-day turnaround. The Bills come in off the Bears, the Broncos off the Raiders. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Scheduling note: this is a Friday game — one of 3 that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Bills at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 49% / 51% — the tradable window is narrow: Broncos at 44c or below, Bills at 46c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bills vs Broncos in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Bills by 0.5 points, a 51% win probability over the Broncos. The Broncos rate 13th of 32 (+1.2) and the Bills 4th (+4.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Broncos (+1.2, 13th) and Bills (+4.2, 4th) are only 3.0 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 49%/51%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Broncos?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC25BUFDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 44c or below, or the Bills at 46c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the Denver Broncos on Friday, December 25, 2026 — a Friday game in NFL Week 16, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 9) and the Bills at 10.3 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Bills?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Bills at 51% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.