Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

This is the second meeting. The Seahawks and 49ers already played in Week 5, and now the Seahawks make the return trip in Week 12. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +0.8 against +5.2, plus home field, equals the Seahawks by 2 (55%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a 49ers defense at -2.9 (31st) — 5.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the 49ers offense (+2.9, 6th) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.8, 4th), a 1.2-point gap.

On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 5, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC West race.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the 49ers at 8.8 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.8 (favored in 16) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the 49ers' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Seahawks'.

Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 29-19 in the Seahawks' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 13-3 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Seahawks at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV29SEASF is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 45% / 55% — the tradable window is narrow: 49ers at 40c or below, Seahawks at 50c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Full division picture on the NFC West hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.