2026 NFL Win Totals: Model vs Kalshi Markets
Model as of · prices live
Projected wins for every 2026 NFL team — the mean of our 10,000-season simulation (run Oct 7) on our power ratings, the same number every team page and the futures board carry — compared head-to-head with the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 17-rung strike ladder. Beneath each headline is the model: the same ratings run over the games left to play, plus the wins already banked, so the two are never confused. The Edge column is the disagreement in wins — projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line — tiered STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0, and we flag OVER / UNDER at the STRONG rung, a gap of at least 2.0 wins. One ladder, in one unit, on every season-wins surface.
Want the reasoning behind the numbers rather than just the board? Coach Gene Clemons and Chris James walk five of the widest gaps on this table — the Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns and Raiders — with the Raiders the only fade of the five. For a completely independent read on the same 32 teams, the Madden 27 ratings board simulates a win total for every club from EA's launch ratings alone.
How We Project Season Wins
We use the same 2026 power ratings that drive our this week's slate and power rankings. For each of a team's 17 regular-season games we compute a single-game win probability — power-rating differential plus a 2.5-point home-field bump, converted to a probability through a Normal margin distribution with σ=14.4 — and then sum those 17 probabilities to get expected wins. Variance follows from Poisson-binomial summation (Σ p × (1−p)), not a Normal approximation, because the per-game probabilities are independent but not identically distributed.
On the market side, Kalshi's KXNFLWINS-27 series is a 17-rung survival ladder — separate YES contracts for “≥1 wins,” “≥2 wins,” through “17 wins.” For any non-negative integer random variable, expected value equals the sum of survival probabilities, so the market's implied expected wins is simply the sum of the 17 mid prices. No de-vigging needed — Kalshi is binary YES/NO.
The headline projection is the mean of our 10,000-season simulation, which plays every schedule out with the real NFL tiebreakers and — unlike the model beneath it — treats each team’s rating as uncertain (σ fitted on 480 team-seasons). That uncertainty pulls the contenders in by a few tenths of a win, which is why the sim mean sits just under the model for the top of the board. The model beneath it is the same ratings run over the games left to play, plus the wins already banked. It is the season outlook of record: the same number appears on every team page, the futures board and our playoff odds. That model is printed beneath it, never blended with the market — a blend of ours and theirs labelled as ours is exactly the kind of mixed signal this board exists to remove. The Edge is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins; we recommend OVER when it is at least 2.0 wins above the market and UNDER when it is 2.0 below — the STRONG rung of the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on. The recommended contract is whichever rung trades closest to 50¢ — the most informationally efficient point on the ladder — and, because the ladder is skewed, that rung can sit a win or more from the market’s expected wins; the gap we grade is mean against mean.
All 32 Teams — Projected vs Market
Tap any column to sort. Default: largest absolute edge first.
| Team | PR | Proj. Wins | Market E[W] | Edge = proj−mkt (wins) ↓ | Tier | Verdict (|Δ|≥2.0) | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TexansAverage | -0.13 | 6.54 sim · model 6.48±1.78 | 8.15 | -1.61 | HIGH | Pass | View → |
 BrownsAverage | -0.98 | 9.42 sim · model 9.35±1.78 | 7.81 | +1.61 | HIGH | Pass | View → |
 GiantsAverage | -0.72 | 9.03 sim · model 9.09±1.77 | 7.46 | +1.57 | HIGH | Pass | View → |
 DolphinsBelow Avg | -3.82 | 4.72 sim · model 5.00±1.73 | 3.18 | +1.54 | HIGH | Pass | View → |
 BillsPlayoff | +2.47 | 10.40 sim · model 10.20±1.76 | 11.57 | -1.17 | MODERATE | Pass | View → |
 LionsAverage | +0.35 | 8.77 sim · model 8.74±1.77 | 9.92 | -1.15 | MODERATE | Pass | View → |
 ChiefsAverage | +0.50 | 10.53 sim · model 10.49±1.75 | 11.67 | -1.14 | MODERATE | Pass | View → |
 CowboysAverage | +0.12 | 8.54 sim · model 8.55±1.76 | 9.61 | -1.07 | MODERATE | Pass | View → |
 RamsPlayoff | +3.26 | 9.89 sim · model 9.70±1.74 | 10.87 | -0.98 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 CardinalsBelow Avg | -3.51 | 6.03 sim · model 6.31±1.74 | 5.14 | +0.89 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 BengalsAverage | +0.45 | 9.09 sim · model 8.99±1.77 | 9.96 | -0.87 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 RavensPlayoff | +1.95 | 10.34 sim · model 10.18±1.77 | 11.12 | -0.78 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 PackersAverage | +0.55 | 8.62 sim · model 8.67±1.76 | 7.86 | +0.76 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 SaintsBelow Avg | -2.60 | 6.63 sim · model 6.79±1.76 | 7.34 | -0.71 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 JetsBelow Avg | -2.70 | 6.54 sim · model 6.73±1.76 | 5.87 | +0.67 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 TitansBelow Avg | -3.96 | 4.79 sim · model 5.06±1.73 | 4.20 | +0.59 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 PatriotsPlayoff | +3.21 | 10.24 sim · model 10.00±1.73 | 9.68 | +0.56 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 SteelersAverage | -1.01 | 8.08 sim · model 8.19±1.78 | 7.61 | +0.47 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 BuccaneersAverage | -1.62 | 5.84 sim · model 5.91±1.76 | 5.38 | +0.46 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 PanthersAverage | -0.60 | 8.32 sim · model 8.40±1.79 | 7.97 | +0.35 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 ChargersBelow Avg | -2.08 | 5.43 sim · model 5.60±1.76 | 5.75 | -0.32 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 BroncosPlayoff | +1.20 | 9.28 sim · model 9.11±1.77 | 9.53 | -0.25 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 BearsPlayoff | +3.27 | 10.64 sim · model 10.42±1.76 | 10.39 | +0.25 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 VikingsAverage | -0.55 | 10.26 sim · model 10.34±1.78 | 10.47 | -0.21 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 FalconsAverage | -0.49 | 8.39 sim · model 8.48±1.79 | 8.19 | +0.20 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 49ersPlayoff | +2.34 | 11.36 sim · model 11.14±1.77 | 11.53 | -0.17 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 ColtsAverage | -0.69 | 8.42 sim · model 8.41±1.77 | 8.27 | +0.15 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 JaguarsPlayoff | +3.09 | 10.86 sim · model 10.56±1.75 | 10.99 | -0.13 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 SeahawksContender | +4.24 | 10.98 sim · model 10.78±1.74 | 10.87 | +0.11 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 RaidersBelow Avg | -2.12 | 8.36 sim · model 8.55±1.75 | 8.27 | +0.09 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 CommandersAverage | -1.53 | 6.97 sim · model 7.05±1.78 | 6.90 | +0.07 | LOW | Pass | View → |
 EaglesAverage | +0.29 | 8.71 sim · model 8.71±1.78 | 8.75 | -0.04 | LOW | Pass | View → |
Proj. Wins — 10,000-season simulation mean (the season outlook of record); beneath it, the model: the same ratings run over the games left to play, plus the wins already banked. Tier — on the wins gap: STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0. The same ladder grades the futures board and every team page.
Methodology Notes & Outliers
Kansas City is 4-0 and sits at PR +0.50 (rank 11), +1.10 since the preseason.
Baltimore at PR +1.95 will surprise. After 4 games each rating is roughly 54% preseason prior and 46% this season's play-by-play; the prior's share falls every week. Projected wins lock in every game already played.
Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears at PR +4.24 / +3.27 top the board. Treat the magnitude with appropriate skepticism: power-rating priors compress to the mean, but the relative ranking is more reliable than the absolute number. The defending champs sit at 11.0 projected wins against a 10.9 market line today (+0.11 wins, LOW). For the full Seattle case, see Coach Gene's Seahawks win-total deep-dive (July 13, 2026 — the numbers in it are that day's; the row above is live).
Poisson-binomial vs Normal: A 17-game schedule with heterogeneous win probabilities is exactly the Poisson-binomial case. We sum p × (1−p) for variance directly rather than fitting a Normal — at season totals around 8–10 wins with mixed-strength opponents the difference is small but the math is honest.
Want the full methodology? See our Gridiron Edge model documentation — empirical per-component shrinkage, 27-year YoY stability fit, and a 2.32-game season win-total MAE out of sample.
More NFL Coverage
- Full standings → — projected record, PWR and playoff odds, all 8 divisions
- This Week's Slate — model vs Kalshi on every game this week
- 2026 Power Rankings — all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Methodology — DAEPA, priors, win-probability conversion
- NFL Hub — power rankings & weekly edge preview
- Kalshi Markets Hub — live prediction-market movers
- Sports Markets — NFL, NBA, soccer, World Cup 2026
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →NFL win totals as prediction markets — FAQ
How are NFL win totals priced as prediction markets?
Kalshi’s KXNFLWINS series lists a ladder of yes/no contracts for each team — "wins ≥ 8.5", "wins ≥ 9.5", and so on. Each rung’s price is the market-implied probability the team clears that win threshold. Reading the ladder gives an expected-wins number, which is what we compare against our model.
What does the model do that the win-total market does not?
Our DAEPA power ratings feed a 10,000-season simulation that plays every team’s 17-game schedule out with rating uncertainty and the real NFL tiebreakers; the mean of those seasons is the projected-wins figure. We then set it against the Kalshi ladder’s implied expected wins and grade the gap in wins on one ladder — STRONG at 2.0 or more, HIGH at 1.5, MODERATE at 1.0 — flagging OVER or UNDER at the STRONG rung, the point where the gap is worth a position rather than noise. The same ladder grades the futures board and every team page.
Can you trade NFL win totals on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team clearing a win threshold and it settles at $1 or $0 at season’s end — a contract, not a wager against a sportsbook line.
When do 2026 NFL win totals settle?
Each team’s win-total contracts settle once their 2026 regular season is complete — after Week 18. The ladder prices drift all season as results come in; an over rung that looked like a coin flip in September can settle early if a team clinches the number with games to spare.
What is an NFL win total?
A win total is the number of regular-season games a team is projected to win across its 17-game schedule. On a sportsbook it’s a single over/under line with vig baked into both sides. On a prediction market like Kalshi it’s a ladder of yes/no contracts — "wins ≥ 8", "wins ≥ 9", and so on — where each rung’s price is the market-implied probability of clearing that threshold, no vig.
How do I read the Kalshi KXNFLWINS ladder to get an expected win total?
For any non-negative whole-number outcome, expected value equals the sum of the survival probabilities — so a team’s market-implied expected wins is simply the sum of its rung prices across the KXNFLWINS-27 ladder. Add up the "≥1", "≥2", … "≥17" mid prices and you have the market’s expected-wins number, which is exactly what our model’s projected wins is compared against on this page.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 5 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 4 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale