2026 NFL Win Totals: Model vs Kalshi Markets
Projected wins for every 2026 NFL team — 272 regular-season games played out one matchup at a time through our power-rating + home-field win-probability model — compared head-to-head with the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 17-rung strike ladder. Edges flagged when the gap between our projection and the market-implied expected wins is at least 0.75 of a win.
Sharpest Disagreements
Seahawks
Model 10.9 · Market 4.8
OVER (+6.09)
Ravens
Model 8.3 · Market 10.4
UNDER (-2.10)
Cardinals
Model 6.3 · Market 4.3
OVER (+2.04)
Dolphins
Model 6.3 · Market 4.4
OVER (+1.83)
Chiefs
Model 7.9 · Market 9.7
UNDER (-1.77)
Jets
Model 6.7 · Market 5.1
OVER (+1.65)
Browns
Model 7.5 · Market 5.9
OVER (+1.55)
Jaguars
Model 10.1 · Market 8.8
OVER (+1.33)
How We Project Season Wins
We use the same 2026 power ratings that drive our Week 1 slate and power rankings. For each of a team's 17 regular-season games we compute a single-game win probability — power-rating differential plus a 2.5-point home-field bump, converted to a probability through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5 — and then sum those 17 probabilities to get expected wins. Variance follows from Poisson-binomial summation (Σ p × (1−p)), not a Normal approximation, because the per-game probabilities are independent but not identically distributed.
On the market side, Kalshi's KXNFLWINS-27series is a 17-rung survival ladder — separate YES contracts for “≥1 wins,” “≥2 wins,” through “17 wins.” For any non-negative integer random variable, expected value equals the sum of survival probabilities, so the market's implied expected wins is simply the sum of the 17 mid prices. No de-vigging needed — Kalshi is binary YES/NO.
Compare the two numbers. If our projection is at least 0.75 wins above the market, the market is collectively underpricing the team — we recommend OVER. 0.75 wins below, we recommend UNDER. The recommended strike is whichever rung trades closest to 50¢ — the most informationally efficient point on the ladder and the spot where a 1% probability move buys the most cents per contract.
All 32 Teams — Projected vs Market
Tap any column to sort. Default: largest absolute edge first.
| Team | PR | Projected Wins | Market E[W] | Edge (|Δ|≥0.75) ↓ | Verdict | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SeahawksPlayoff | +4.98 | 10.87±1.94 | 4.78 | +6.09 | OVER YES 10+ @ 26¢ | Trade |
 RavensAverage | -0.97 | 8.28±2.01 | 10.38 | -2.10 | UNDER NO 11+ @ 60¢ | Trade |
 CardinalsBelow Avg | -4.12 | 6.30±1.94 | 4.25 | +2.04 | OVER YES 5+ @ 41¢ | Trade |
 DolphinsBelow Avg | -4.02 | 6.27±1.95 | 4.44 | +1.83 | OVER YES 5+ @ 41¢ | Trade |
 ChiefsAverage | -1.26 | 7.89±1.99 | 9.66 | -1.77 | UNDER NO 10+ @ 56¢ | Trade |
 JetsBelow Avg | -3.90 | 6.72±1.95 | 5.07 | +1.65 | OVER YES 4+ @ 51¢ | Trade |
 BrownsBelow Avg | -3.31 | 7.50±2.01 | 5.95 | +1.55 | OVER YES 6+ @ 51¢ | Trade |
 JaguarsPlayoff | +3.15 | 10.13±1.98 | 8.81 | +1.33 | OVER YES 10+ @ 46¢ | Trade |
 RamsPlayoff | +4.42 | 10.59±1.96 | 11.82 | -1.23 | UNDER NO 12+ @ 54¢ | Trade |
 BengalsAverage | -0.05 | 9.13±2.02 | 10.30 | -1.18 | UNDER NO 11+ @ 46¢ | Trade |
 VikingsAverage | -1.27 | 7.83±2.01 | 8.88 | -1.05 | UNDER NO 9+ @ 54¢ | Trade |
 ColtsAverage | -0.11 | 8.79±2.02 | 7.74 | +1.05 | OVER YES 8+ @ 55¢ | Trade |
 ChargersAverage | +0.41 | 8.74±1.99 | 9.74 | -1.00 | UNDER NO 10+ @ 55¢ | Trade |
 BroncosAverage | +0.79 | 8.96±2.01 | 9.86 | -0.90 | UNDER NO 10+ @ 56¢ | Trade |
 PatriotsPlayoff | +5.58 | 11.15±1.90 | 10.32 | +0.83 | OVER YES 10+ @ 56¢ | Trade |
 FalconsAverage | -1.13 | 8.37±2.04 | 7.61 | +0.76 | OVER YES 8+ @ 46¢ | Trade |
 RaidersBelow Avg | -5.52 | 5.89±1.92 | 6.59 | -0.70 | Pass | View → |
 BuccaneersAverage | -0.47 | 8.51±2.02 | 7.91 | +0.60 | Pass | View → |
 LionsAverage | +1.50 | 9.64±2.00 | 10.17 | -0.53 | Pass | View → |
 BearsAverage | +1.12 | 8.81±2.02 | 9.29 | -0.49 | Pass | View → |
 TexansAverage | +1.35 | 9.23±2.01 | 9.71 | -0.48 | Pass | View → |
 49ersAverage | +1.29 | 9.23±1.99 | 9.66 | -0.43 | Pass | View → |
 SaintsAverage | -1.62 | 8.40±2.01 | 8.00 | +0.40 | Pass | View → |
 GiantsAverage | -2.42 | 7.24±1.97 | 6.90 | +0.34 | Pass | View → |
 PanthersAverage | -1.53 | 7.87±2.03 | 7.55 | +0.32 | Pass | View → |
 CowboysAverage | +1.32 | 9.12±1.99 | 9.40 | -0.28 | Pass | View → |
 CommandersAverage | -1.60 | 7.62±2.02 | 7.90 | -0.28 | Pass | View → |
 SteelersAverage | -2.18 | 7.54±2.00 | 7.81 | -0.27 | Pass | View → |
 PackersPlayoff | +1.68 | 9.21±2.01 | 9.37 | -0.15 | Pass | View → |
 EaglesPlayoff | +2.34 | 9.77±2.00 | 9.92 | -0.15 | Pass | View → |
 TitansBelow Avg | -5.10 | 6.17±1.94 | 6.31 | -0.14 | Pass | View → |
 BillsPlayoff | +3.59 | 10.21±1.96 | 10.11 | +0.10 | Pass | View → |
Methodology Notes & Outliers
Kansas City sits at PR −4.02 with an explicit −4.0 offensive overridefor Patrick Mahomes' health flag. That pulls KC's projection well below their 2024–25 baseline and produces a large UNDER signal. If the override clears before camp, the projection moves substantially and the verdict can flip.
Baltimore at PR −0.46 will surprise. The 2026 preseason prior shrinks heavily toward league mean for teams coming off volatile late-season runs. The early-season prior is the starting point — by Week 4 in-season DAEPA blends in and ratings re-stratify quickly.
Seattle and New England at PR +3.49 / +3.34 top the board — both teams the market currently has well outside the projected-wins leaderboard. Treat the magnitude with appropriate skepticism: power-rating priors compress to the mean, but the relative ranking is more reliable than the absolute number.
Poisson-binomial vs Normal: A 17-game schedule with heterogeneous win probabilities is exactly the Poisson-binomial case. We sum p × (1−p) for variance directly rather than fitting a Normal — at season totals around 8–10 wins with mixed-strength opponents the difference is small but the math is honest.
Want the full methodology? See our Gridiron Edge model documentation — empirical per-component shrinkage, 27-year YoY stability fit, 66.2% backtested game accuracy.
More NFL Coverage
- 2026 Week 1 Slate — model vs Kalshi for all 16 opening games
- 2026 Power Rankings — all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Methodology — DAEPA, priors, win-probability conversion
- NFL Hub — power rankings & weekly edge preview
- Kalshi Markets Hub — live prediction-market movers
- Sports Markets — NFL, NBA, soccer, World Cup 2026
NFL win totals as prediction markets — FAQ
How are NFL win totals priced as prediction markets?
Kalshi’s KXNFLWINS series lists a ladder of yes/no contracts for each team — "wins ≥ 8.5", "wins ≥ 9.5", and so on. Each rung’s price is the market-implied probability the team clears that win threshold. Reading the ladder gives an expected-wins number, which is what we compare against our model.
What does the model do that the win-total market does not?
Our DAEPA power-rating model projects every team’s 17-game schedule, turning each matchup into a win probability and summing them to an expected-wins total. We then set that against the Kalshi ladder and flag any team where the two disagree by more than 0.75 wins — the threshold where the gap is worth a position rather than noise.
Can you trade NFL win totals on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team clearing a win threshold and it settles at $1 or $0 at season’s end — a contract, not a wager against a sportsbook line.
When do 2026 NFL win totals settle?
Each team’s win-total contracts settle once their 2026 regular season is complete — after Week 18. The ladder prices drift all season as results come in; an over rung that looked like a coin flip in September can settle early if a team clinches the number with games to spare.