2026 NFL Win Totals: Model vs Kalshi Markets
Projected wins for every 2026 NFL team — 272 regular-season games played out one matchup at a time through our power-rating + home-field win-probability model — compared head-to-head with the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 17-rung strike ladder. Edges flagged when the gap between our projection and the market-implied expected wins is at least 0.75 of a win.
How We Project Season Wins
We use the same 2026 power ratings that drive our Week 1 slate and power rankings. For each of a team's 17 regular-season games we compute a single-game win probability — power-rating differential plus a 2.5-point home-field bump, converted to a probability through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5 — and then sum those 17 probabilities to get expected wins. Variance follows from Poisson-binomial summation (Σ p × (1−p)), not a Normal approximation, because the per-game probabilities are independent but not identically distributed.
On the market side, Kalshi's KXNFLWINS-27series is a 17-rung survival ladder — separate YES contracts for “≥1 wins,” “≥2 wins,” through “17 wins.” For any non-negative integer random variable, expected value equals the sum of survival probabilities, so the market's implied expected wins is simply the sum of the 17 mid prices. No de-vigging needed — Kalshi is binary YES/NO.
Compare the two numbers. If our projection is at least 0.75 wins above the market, the market is collectively underpricing the team — we recommend OVER. 0.75 wins below, we recommend UNDER. The recommended strike is whichever rung trades closest to 50¢ — the most informationally efficient point on the ladder and the spot where a 1% probability move buys the most cents per contract.
All 32 Teams — Projected vs Market
Tap any column to sort. Default: largest absolute edge first.
| Team | PR | Projected Wins | Market E[W] | Edge (|Δ|≥0.75) ↓ | Verdict | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SeahawksPlayoff | +3.49 | 10.30±1.98 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 PatriotsPlayoff | +3.34 | 10.13±1.98 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 RamsPlayoff | +2.99 | 10.03±1.99 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 JaguarsPlayoff | +2.71 | 9.86±2.00 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 BillsPlayoff | +2.24 | 9.59±2.00 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 LionsPlayoff | +1.17 | 9.31±2.02 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 49ersPlayoff | +1.01 | 9.14±2.01 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 ColtsAverage | +0.74 | 9.12±2.02 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 TexansPlayoff | +1.28 | 9.12±2.02 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 BroncosAverage | +0.87 | 9.11±2.02 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 PackersPlayoff | +1.41 | 9.07±2.02 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 CowboysAverage | +0.92 | 8.92±2.01 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 EaglesAverage | +0.74 | 8.89±2.03 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 ChargersAverage | +0.42 | 8.87±2.01 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 BearsAverage | +0.95 | 8.77±2.03 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 BengalsAverage | -0.48 | 8.69±2.02 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 FalconsAverage | -0.63 | 8.55±2.04 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 BuccaneersAverage | -0.25 | 8.52±2.03 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 SaintsAverage | -1.01 | 8.45±2.02 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 RavensAverage | -0.46 | 8.40±2.02 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 VikingsAverage | -0.18 | 8.33±2.03 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 SteelersAverage | -0.90 | 8.13±2.03 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 PanthersAverage | -1.08 | 8.04±2.04 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 GiantsAverage | -1.12 | 7.92±2.00 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 CommandersAverage | -1.08 | 7.89±2.03 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 BrownsBelow Avg | -2.75 | 7.49±2.02 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 DolphinsAverage | -1.97 | 7.38±2.00 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 JetsBelow Avg | -3.01 | 7.14±2.00 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 CardinalsBelow Avg | -2.73 | 7.11±1.99 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 RaidersBelow Avg | -3.99 | 6.73±1.98 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 ChiefsBelow Avg | -4.02 | 6.52±1.96 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
 TitansBelow Avg | -4.11 | 6.49±1.97 | — | — | Quiet | View → |
Methodology Notes & Outliers
Kansas City sits at PR −4.02 with an explicit −4.0 offensive overridefor Patrick Mahomes' health flag. That pulls KC's projection well below their 2024–25 baseline and produces a large UNDER signal. If the override clears before camp, the projection moves substantially and the verdict can flip.
Baltimore at PR −0.46 will surprise. The 2026 preseason prior shrinks heavily toward league mean for teams coming off volatile late-season runs. The early-season prior is the starting point — by Week 4 in-season DAEPA blends in and ratings re-stratify quickly.
Seattle and New England at PR +3.49 / +3.34 top the board — both teams the market currently has well outside the projected-wins leaderboard. Treat the magnitude with appropriate skepticism: power-rating priors compress to the mean, but the relative ranking is more reliable than the absolute number.
Poisson-binomial vs Normal: A 17-game schedule with heterogeneous win probabilities is exactly the Poisson-binomial case. We sum p × (1−p) for variance directly rather than fitting a Normal — at season totals around 8–10 wins with mixed-strength opponents the difference is small but the math is honest.
Want the full methodology? See our Gridiron Edge model documentation — empirical per-component shrinkage, 27-year YoY stability fit, 66.5% backtested game accuracy.
More NFL Coverage
- 2026 Week 1 Slate — model vs Kalshi for all 16 opening games
- 2026 Power Rankings — all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Methodology — DAEPA, priors, win-probability conversion
- NFL Hub — power rankings & weekly edge preview
- Kalshi Markets Hub — live prediction-market movers
- Sports Markets — NFL, NBA, soccer, World Cup 2026