Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 16. The model has the Packers by 4 (61%) off a +2.9 to +1.5 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.2 (5th of 32) against a Bears defense at -0.9 (19th) — 4.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+1.9, 8th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 15th), a 2.5-point gap.

On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 16, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.7 projected wins for the Packers against 8.9 for the Bears, favored in 13 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 11th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bears'.

One team has owned this series: the Packers are 35-13 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Bears won 22-16 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Packers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Packers 61%, Bears 39%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Packers contracts a buy at 56c or below and Bears contracts a buy at 34c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Full division picture on the NFC North hub.

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