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Home/NFL/Week 5/Bears vs Packers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 5 · 2026NFC North rivalry

Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31

Final. The rematch: Packers vs Bears, Week 16 →Upset: Packers closed +110 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Held Tue–Fri on the Keenum/Bagent label; Bears confirmed Bagent Fri 3:43 PM ET.

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 1.5 (55% to win); the Packers won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Bears at 52c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

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Settled

Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 1.5 (55% to win). The Packers won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Bears: +2c — we archived the Bears at 50c on Oct 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 52c on Oct 11. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Bears moneylineModel 55% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 52% on CHI — kept as the pre-game record.52c55%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Packers 31, Bears 7: Christian Watson caught touchdowns of 42 and 53 yards, and Green Bay took the ball away five times

Green Bay beat Chicago 31-7 at Lambeau Field, and both teams are now 3-2. With Caleb Williams out for a third straight game (hamstring), Tyson Bagent started and threw two interceptions to Xavier McKinney, Case Keenum took over early in the fourth, and the Bears turned it over on four straight second-half possessions. Jordan Love went 25 of 31 for 367 yards; Watson caught six for 143 and Matthew Golden six for 123, and MarShawn Lloyd ran for two touchdowns. DraftKings opened Green Bay −3 and closed with Chicago a 1.5-point favorite, a 4.5-point move toward the team that lost by 24; the 38 points finished under both the opening 49.5 and the closing 46.5.

Bears 7—Packers 31

Final✗ Call missed

The chip reads a miss, and it is the market’s miss. Our stored probability had Chicago at 55.3% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero from a line with the Bears favored by 1.5 — and Chicago lost by 24. This was a quarterback-adjusted game on our board (Bagent for Williams), so the lean was capped and no game-line position could publish; the ledger holds no row on this game at all. The model’s own read was past the review threshold, so the page printed no lean before kickoff; a call nobody could see is not a record, and it is not graded here in either direction. The player board carried no PLAY row. Four visible WATCH rows went 1-3, graded apart from the record: Rome Odunze over 2.5 catches won (he caught three); Cole Kmet over 1.5 catches and over 14.5 receiving yards lost (one catch, eight yards), and Skyy Moore over 1.5 catches lost (one catch, no yards). One suppressed row counts in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Packers −3 → Bears −1.5
Total
49.5 → 46.5
Moneyline
CHI +140 / GB −166 → CHI −130 / GB +110

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 3 to 46.5; the game landed on 38.

How it happened

Q1

Green Bay went 91 yards on its first drive, and McKinney intercepted Bagent two plays later

After a Chicago punt, the Packers went 91 yards in ten plays and Love found Watson for 42. On the Bears’ second snap of the next drive McKinney picked off Bagent and gave Green Bay the ball at the Chicago 45. The Packers outgained the Bears 130 yards to 9 in the quarter and held the ball for 11:45.

After one
Packers 7, Bears 0
Opening touchdown drive
10 plays · 91 yds · 6:13

AP via ESPN — Love-Watson connection helps Packers take some revenge on Bears with a 31-7 rout

Q2

Lloyd scored on the first play of the second quarter; Swift answered on fourth-and-goal

Lloyd finished the drive off the interception by running over Jaylon Johnson from seven yards, his first career rushing touchdown. Chicago’s answer took 16 plays and 9:10, and D’Andre Swift scored from the 1 on fourth down with 1:53 left in the half. It was the Bears’ only score.

Halftime
Packers 14, Bears 7
Chicago’s touchdown drive
16 plays · 78 yds · 9:10

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Watson’s 53-yarder over Thieneman opened the half, and Chicago’s giveaways began

Green Bay went 72 yards in four plays to start the third quarter, and Watson caught Love’s 53-yard throw reaching over safety Dillon Thieneman; Trey Smack missed the extra point. Cairo Santos missed a field goal at the end of Chicago’s next drive. Smack kicked a 35-yarder with 1:58 left, and the Bears’ next possession ended in an interception, the first of four straight turnovers.

After three
Packers 23, Bears 7
Watson
6 catches · 143 yds · 2 TD (42, 53)

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Lloyd’s second touchdown and a two-point throw to Golden, then three more Chicago giveaways

The Packers turned that interception into points in three plays, Lloyd scoring from the 4 five seconds into the fourth quarter and Love throwing to Golden for two. Chicago’s next three drives ended in an interception and two lost fumbles, with Keenum taking over from Bagent early in the quarter. Smack missed two field goals in the quarter, and the Bears’ last drive ended on downs.

Final
Packers 31, Bears 7
Love
25 of 31 · 367 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
Bagent / Keenum
12 of 21 · 87 yds · 2 INT / 11 of 19 · 108 yds · 1 INT
Golden
6 catches · 123 yds
Total yards / turnovers
GB 428 · 0 — CHI 246 · 5

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game, and there is no nfl_weekly_edges row for it in any status: the quarterback gate read ADJUSTED, and a game-line position stands only on PASS. Every nfl_prop_edges row on the final pre-kickoff board had result and pnl_cents null when this was written — grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W5_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-12/prop-reconciliation-w05-sunday.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The first-quarter yardage (130 to 9) and the 11:45 of possession are the AP’s figures. Chicago’s nine yards and Green Bay’s 11:45 reconcile with ESPN’s drive chart; Green Bay’s 130 was not checked play by play.
  • The AP credits McKinney with both of Bagent’s interceptions; the box score gives the third to Ty’Ron Hopper. Which quarterback was on the field for the first fourth-quarter interception, and who lost the two fourth-quarter fumbles (the box score charges one each to Keenum and Odunze), was not confirmed against the play text, so the turnovers are not attributed above beyond that.
  • The distances of Santos’ miss and Smack’s two missed field goals are not in ESPN’s scoring summary and are left out.
  • Ben Johnson said after the game that Williams is nearing a return (AP). Skyy Moore, listed questionable with an ankle injury, played and caught one pass. No in-game injury severity was confirmed when this was published.
  • DraftKings moved from Green Bay −3 to Chicago −1.5, a 4.5-point swing, and the total from 49.5 to 46.5. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so no cause is claimed for either move.

Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Love-Watson connection helps Packers take some revenge on Bears with a 31-7 rout

PMP · WK 5 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 11
AWAY CHI +3.2
vs CHI -1.5
HOME GB +1.4
Fair (books) · GB 45% home win prob
Kalshi · GB — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Green Bay, WI PASS — no position

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Bears

55%

fair value (books)

Packers

45%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

46%

Madden 27

54%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Bears at Packers How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Bears at PackersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Bears at Packers Kalshi spread ladder for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Bears–Packers spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Bears vs Packers power ratings (Week 5) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Chicago Bears+3.22ndPlayoff
    Green Bay Packers+1.410thPlayoff

    Bears and Packers season outlook

    CHIGB
    Average wins10.79.4
    Make playoffs74%50%
    Win division26%9%
    Win Super Bowl6.8%3.1%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Bears vs Packers — player pages

    All players →

    D'Andre Swift

    RB

    Rome Odunze

    WR

    Colston Loveland

    TE

    Tucker Kraft

    TE

    Jordan Love

    QB

    Josh Jacobs

    RB

    Luther Burden III

    WR

    Christian Watson

    WR

    Caleb Williams

    QB

    Kyle Monangai

    RB

    Matthew Golden

    WR

    Savion Williams

    MarShawn Lloyd

    Mark Redman

    Pierre Strong Jr.

    Bo Melton

    GB Packers D/ST

    Jonnu Smith

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: NFC North math: Bears at Packers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 — the graded call is above.

    Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 16. The model has the Packers by 4.5 (62%) off a +1.4 to +3.2 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows. One input in this line is not a rating: the Bears are without their usual starting quarterback (Tyson Bagent starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 3.6 points toward the Packers — already inside the number above.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +2.5 (6th of 32) against a Packers defense at -0.2 (10th) — 2.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Packers offense (+1.6, 11th) meets the Bears defense (+0.2, 7th), a 1.4-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Bears +0.5 (13th of 32) to +0.0 (28th).

    On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 16, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Packers at 9.4 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Bears at 10.7 (favored in 14) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 7th-hardest game on the Packers' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Bears'.

    One team has owned this series: the Packers are 35-13 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Bears won 22-16 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Packers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 62% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the NFC North hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Bears vs Packers on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB
    Market-implied (Packers)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Packers)
    45%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 45% for the Packers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Bears vs Packers trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenuePackersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig47% 47cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Bears vs Packers

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    Bears vs Packers — frequently asked

    Who won Bears vs Packers in Week 5?

    Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 1.5 (55% to win), and the Packers won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Bears vs Packers before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Bears by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability over the Packers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    How much does a NFC North result matter here?

    Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 16. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Packers by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.

    How do you take a position on Bears vs Packers?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Packers at 43c or below, or the Bears at 53c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Packers host the Bears?

    Chicago Bears visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.

    What does the model project for the Packers and Bears this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Packers at 9.4 wins (favored in 11) and the Bears at 10.7 (favored in 14). This game ranks 7th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bears', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Bears vs Packers?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Bears vs Packers on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    Is Bears moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 55% against a market price implying 52%, an edge of +3.3 points. Model 55% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 52% on CHI — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Packers hub →Bears hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 5 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 16. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bears–Packers, Week 16 →

    Next up for each team

    Bears: Week 6 at FalconsModel line →Packers: Week 6 vs CowboysModel line →

    More Week 5 matchups

    Buccaneers at CowboysModel: Cowboys −9Eagles at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −3Bengals at DolphinsModel: Bengals −2Raiders at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8Vikings at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5Browns at JetsModel: Jets −1Colts at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Texans at TitansModel: Texans −1.5Giants at CommandersModel: Commanders −6.5Broncos at ChargersModel: Broncos −0.5Lions at CardinalsModel: Lions −1.549ers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −4.5Ravens at FalconsModel: Falcons −4.5Bills at RamsModel: Rams −3

    Full Week 5 board →Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

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