Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Packers by 4 in Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers, NFL Week 5 2026 — 63% to win, and a NFC North game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Packers at 58c or below (or Bears at 32c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CHI
+1.4
GB
+3.0
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Bears
37%
model win prob
Packers
63%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
46%
Madden 27
54%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Packers at 58c or below, or the Bears at 32c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bears at Packers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Packers −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
NFC North math: Bears at Packers
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 16. The model has the Packers by 4 (63%) off a +3.0 to +1.4 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.3 (5th of 32) against a Bears defense at -1.1 (19th) — 4.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+2.0, 8th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 14th), a 2.5-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 16, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.7 projected wins for the Packers against 8.8 for the Bears, favored in 13 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 11th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bears'.
One team has owned this series: the Packers are 35-13 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Bears won 22-16 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Packers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Packers 63%, Bears 37%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Packers contracts a buy at 58c or below and Bears contracts a buy at 32c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bears vs Packers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB
- Market-implied (Packers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Packers)
- 63%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Packers at 58c or below, or the Bears at 32c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bears vs Packers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Packers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bears vs Packers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bears vs Packers in Week 5?
Our power-rating model picks the Packers by 4 points, a 63% win probability over the Bears, for a projected score of Packers 28, Bears 23 on a ratings-implied 50.9-point total. The Packers rate 5th of 32 (+3.0) and the Bears 10th (+1.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 16. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Packers by 4 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Bears vs Packers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Packers at 58c or below, or the Bears at 32c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Packers host the Bears?
Chicago Bears visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.
What does the model project for the Packers and Bears this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 13) and the Bears at 8.8 (favored in 11). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bears', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bears vs Packers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Packers at 58c or below or the Bears at 32c or below, off a 4-point line.
Can you trade Bears vs Packers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11CHIGB. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Packers?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Packers at 63% over the Bears sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 16. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bears–Packers, Week 16 →
More Week 5 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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