Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Bears

41%

model win prob

Packers

59%

model win prob

Model line

Packers −3

Kalshi (Packers)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Packers — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Chicago Bears+0.910thAverage

Green Bay Packers+1.46thPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 5, the Chicago Bears travel to face the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Packers 6th of 32 (Playoff tier, +1.4) and the Bears 10th (Average tier, +0.9). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Packers by 3 — a 59% win probability for the Packers.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 59% (Packers) / 41% (Bears) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a NFC North divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the NFC North race. Track the full division on the NFC North hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bears vs Packers — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bears vs Packers in Week 5?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Packers by 3 points and gives them a 59% win probability over the Bears. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bears vs Packers?

Home win probability 59% (Packers), away 41% (Bears). That comes from a power-rating differential of +0.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Packers rate 6th of 32 (Playoff tier), the Bears 10th (Average tier).

Can you trade Bears vs Packers on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.