New York Jets vs New England Patriots
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Jets
26%
model win prob
Patriots
74%
model win prob
Model line
Patriots −8.5
Kalshi (Patriots)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Patriots — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 6, the New York Jets travel to face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Patriots 1st of 32 (Playoff tier, +3.8) and the Jets 29th (Below Avg tier, -2.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Patriots by 8.5 — a 74% win probability for the Patriots.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 74% (Patriots) / 26% (Jets) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
This is a AFC East divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC East race. Track the full division on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jets vs Patriots — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jets vs Patriots in Week 6?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Patriots by 8.5 points and gives them a 74% win probability over the Jets. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Jets vs Patriots?
Home win probability 74% (Patriots), away 26% (Jets). That comes from a power-rating differential of +6.1 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Patriots rate 1st of 32 (Playoff tier), the Jets 29th (Below Avg tier).
Can you trade Jets vs Patriots on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Patriots host the Jets?
New York Jets visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, October 18, 2026 in NFL Week 6, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.