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Home/NFL/Week 6/Jets vs Patriots
Gridiron EdgeWeek 6 · 2026AFC East rivalry

New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26

Final. The rematch: Patriots vs Jets, Week 16 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Patriots by 7.5 (75% to win); the Patriots won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Patriots at 76c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Patriots by 7.5 (75% to win). The Patriots won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Patriots: +1c — we archived the Patriots at 75c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 76c on Oct 18. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 6 · 2026-10-19

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Jets to winModel 25% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 24% on NYJ — kept as the pre-game record.24c25%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Patriots 26, Jets 19: Drake Maye threw three touchdown passes and Charles Woods ended Geno Smith’s interception-free start to the season

New England led 17-3 at halftime at Gillette Stadium on Maye’s touchdowns to Romeo Doubs and DeMario Douglas, and held on after the Jets cut it to 17-13 in the third quarter. Hunter Henry’s 7-yard catch made it 23-13 early in the fourth, and four plays later Woods intercepted Smith, his first interception of the season. The Patriots lost three offensive linemen to injury, per the AP, and the Jets went 0 for 3 in the red zone and were stopped on downs on two straight first-half possessions. DraftKings opened New England −9.5 and closed −7.5; the Patriots won by seven, and 45 points finished over a 42.5 total that never moved.

Jets 19—Patriots 26

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit, and on this game it is the market’s call. The stored probability had New England at 74.7%, the market’s own number anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 7.5-point line, and the Patriots won. The model’s own read was New England by 8.7, a 1.2-point lean toward the Patriots, tier NONE, and they won by seven: the lean was wrong, by half a point. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds no live position here. Its two rows were voided before kickoff and count in neither direction: a LOW Patriots game winner voided on 2026-10-07 as never published, and a MODERATE Jets game winner, YES at 24.5¢, voided on 2026-10-14 (no_longer_edge). The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows on this game. Fifteen visible WATCH rows went 9-6 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. The wins: Braelon Allen under 2.5 and under 3.5 catches (two), Allen under 89.5 rushing yards (78), Maye under 24.5 rushing yards (24), Henry over 24.5 receiving yards (48), Mason Taylor over 1.5 catches and over 14.5 receiving yards (four for 33), Corey Kiner over 9.5 rushing yards (57) and Isaiah Davis over 9.5 rushing yards (16). The losses: Maye under 1.5 and under 2.5 touchdown passes (he threw three), Allen under 69.5 rushing yards and under 14.5 receiving yards (78 and 26), Tim Patrick over 1.5 catches (one) and Doubs over 2.5 catches, on one catch before he left in the first quarter. Seven rows on suppressed stats (five passing-yards strikes on Smith and Maye and two touchdown rows) were never displayed and count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Patriots −9.5 → Patriots −7.5
Total
42.5 → 42.5
To win
NYJ +350 / NE −455 → NYJ +275 / NE −345

The spread moved toward the side that lost.

How it happened

Q1

A Jets touchdown wiped out by offensive pass interference, then Maye to Doubs for 42

New York opened with a 13-play drive and Smith hit Omar Cooper Jr. for a 14-yard touchdown, but offensive pass interference on Tim Patrick took it off the board and Jason Sanders kicked a 42-yard field goal. Two Patriots snaps after a Jets three-and-out, Maye found Doubs deep for a 42-yard touchdown. Doubs was hurt on the play and did not return, per the AP. The Jets’ next drive ended on downs.

Jets opening drive
13 plays · 48 yds · 6:43 · FG
Patriots touchdown drive
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:12
After one
Patriots 7, Jets 3

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

Stopped on downs again, Andy Borregales from 32, and Maye to Douglas with 14 seconds left

The Jets’ second straight drive into Patriots territory ended on downs. Borregales made a 32-yarder to finish a 12-play drive, and after a Jets three-and-out New England went 71 yards in 69 seconds, helped by a roughing-the-passer penalty on David Bailey, and Maye hit Douglas for a 9-yard touchdown.

Halftime
Patriots 17, Jets 3
Jets possessions ended on downs (first half)
2
Patriots two-minute drive
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:09 · TD

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Smith to Cooper deep, a Bailey strip, and a 12-play reply ending in Henry’s touchdown

After New England’s first drive of the half ended on downs, the Jets scored in three plays when Smith found Cooper deep down the left side. Bailey then stripped TreVeyon Henderson and Jamien Sherwood recovered at the Patriots’ 36, but a sack by Elijah Ponder, per the AP, left New York with Sanders’ 36-yard field goal. The Patriots answered with 12 plays and 68 yards, and Maye’s 7-yard touchdown to Henry came with 14:10 left in the fourth; Borregales missed the extra point wide left.

After three
Patriots 17, Jets 13
Cooper
6 catches · 103 yds · 1 TD
Patriots reply
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:36 · TD, PAT missed

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Woods’ interception, a Douglas fumble, and three Sanders field goals that were not enough

Smith’s deep throw for Kenyon Sadiq was intercepted by Woods at the New England 24. The Patriots gave it back three plays later when Sherwood forced a Douglas fumble at the end of a 39-yard catch and Minkah Fitzpatrick recovered, and Sanders made it 23-16 from 40 yards. New England then ran 13 plays and 6:08 off the clock before Borregales’ 27-yarder, and Sanders’ 36-yarder with 32 seconds left was the last score.

Final
Patriots 26, Jets 19
Maye
18 of 32 · 235 yds · 3 TD
Smith
20 of 30 · 252 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
Douglas
7 catches · 86 yds · 1 TD
Jets red zone (AP)
0 TD in 3 trips

AP via ESPN — Drake Maye’s 3 TD passes help Patriots stave off late push by Jets in 26-19 win

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it: the MODERATE Jets game winner was voided on 2026-10-14 (no_longer_edge) and the LOW Patriots row on 2026-10-07 (never_published). Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W6_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-18/prop-reconciliation-w06.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The length of Cooper’s third-quarter touchdown is left out: the AP prints 42 yards and the ESPN play-by-play 48.
  • The severity of the injuries to Doubs (shoulder), Morgan Moses (ankle), Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring), Ben Brown (knee) and the Jets’ Kiko Mauigoa (thigh), all per the AP, was not known when this was published. New England plays again on Thursday.
  • DraftKings moved New England from −9.5 to −7.5. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not claim what moved the line. Nothing above is a live Kalshi price.

Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Drake Maye’s 3 TD passes help Patriots stave off late push by Jets in 26-19 win

Drake Maye from a clean pocket against a Jets defense that only works when it gets there

Both quarterbacks are confirmed, so the gate is quiet. The game is a single split. The Jets’ pass defense has been two different units depending on whether it reaches the quarterback — one of the best in the league with pressure, one of the worst without it — and its pressure rate has swung from a quarter of dropbacks to half depending on the opponent. Maye just completed 86% of his throws from a clean pocket and is the best quarterback in football against the two-high coverage the Jets live in. New England will try to give him that pocket behind three limited tackles.

Patriots pass offense · Jets pressure and coverage

Maye against a defense that allows a 39 passer rating with pressure and 108 without it

Close to even

The whole game sits in one table. When the Jets pressure the quarterback, opponents complete 37% at a 39.1 passer rating with no touchdowns and an interception; when they do not, 72% at 108.0, six touchdowns and no picks. How often they get there has depended entirely on the opponent — 49% against Cleveland, 40% against Tennessee, 28% against Detroit and Chicago, 26% against Green Bay — and the two games in which they could not were the two in which they gave up 381 and 492 passing yards. Maye is coming off back-to-back weeks as the top-scoring quarterback in the league, with a 374-yard, four-touchdown game against the Raiders in which half his dropbacks were clean, a season high, and he went 19-of-22 for 287 and three scores from those. The Jets also sit in two-high coverage on 62% of snaps, fifth-most, and Maye against two-high this season is 55-of-76 at 10.0 yards an attempt, second in the league. The pressure is the only variable.

Jets pass defense by pressure
With: 37.2% comp, 39.1 rating, 0 TD / 1 INT · Without: 71.8%, 108.0 rating, 6 TD / 0 INT
Jets pressure rate by opponent
48.9% (CLE) · 40% (TEN) · 27.8% (DET, CHI) · 25.7% (GB) — 381 and 492 passing yards allowed in the two low-pressure games
Maye, Week 5 and vs two-high
26/34, 374, 4 TD vs LV · 19/22, 287, 3 TD without pressure · 55/76, 10.0 Y/A vs two-high (2nd)

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Jets–Patriots Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)

Jets pass rush · Patriots pass protection

Three limited tackles and a replacement right guard against the rush that sacked Watson eight times

Edge: Jets

This is where the Jets get their pressure rate back, if they get it anywhere. Will Campbell left the Raiders game with a knee injury and was limited Wednesday; Morgan Moses was limited with a foot; Marcus Bryant, the swing tackle, was limited with an ankle. Mike Onwenu has been on injured reserve since Week 2, and after Greg Van Roten and Walter Rouse filled in, Ben Brown has started the last two games at right guard. When Campbell went out, Caleb Lomu allowed one pressure on 29 pass-blocking snaps, which is the encouraging data point, but the worksheet’s verdict on the line is that it still is not completely trustworthy. The Jets arrive from a 17-12 win over Cleveland in which they sacked Watson eight times; Joseph Ossai did not practise with an ankle and the Jets’ Wednesday statuses are estimates from a walkthrough. New England’s own answer has been pace of play rather than protection — 3.36 points a drive over the last two weeks, second in the league, after a league-worst 0.97 through three.

Patriots tackles, Wednesday
Campbell (knee) LP · Moses (foot) LP · Bryant (ankle) LP · Onwenu on IR since Week 2
Fill-ins
Lomu: 1 pressure allowed on 29 pass-block snaps after Campbell left · Ben Brown has started two straight at RG
Jets rush, Week 5
8 sacks of Watson in a 17-12 win · Ossai (ankle) DNP on an estimated report

Source: patriots.com — Week 6 injury report, Patriots vs Jets (2026-10-14)

Jets pass offense · Patriots coverage

Geno Smith, sacked sixteen times, against a Patriots secondary that may be without two outside corners

Close to even

Smith has not thrown an interception this season and has one top-twelve week, against Detroit; in the other four he has one or fewer touchdown passes, he completed 53% and 57% the last two weeks, and he has taken sixteen sacks, 29th among starters, with a fifth of his dropbacks losing a full point of expected value. The Jets punt on 47% of their possessions, second only to Tennessee. The reason the Jets can still score is who is across from him: Carlton Davis III did not practise with a neck and Karon Prunty did not practise with a hamstring, and Christian Gonzalez, who has missed the last two games, returned limited with a shoulder. Kevin Byard III (chest) and Marcus Jones (ankle) were limited too — fifteen of the sixteen Patriots listed were defenders or linemen. New England’s pass defense has been middling against that backdrop, 6.9 yards an attempt and a 3.7% touchdown rate, both twelfth, and has given up multiple passing touchdowns in a game without its starters. Breece Hall will likely miss the game — Aaron Glenn called him week-to-week — so the Jets’ passing-down back and the receivers carry it.

Geno Smith
0 INT · 16 sacks (29th) · 53.3% and 56.7% completions the last two weeks · one QB1 week (DET)
Patriots secondary, Wednesday
Davis III (neck) DNP · Prunty (hamstring) DNP · Gonzalez (shoulder) LP after missing two games · Byard, Marcus Jones LP
Patriots pass defense
6.9 Y/A allowed (13th) · 3.7% TD rate (12th) · 12.5 passing pts/gm allowed (12th)

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Jets–Patriots Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)

Jets run offense · Patriots defense

A Jets ground game without Breece Hall against a defense that ends a fifth of drives without a first down

Edge: Patriots

Hall did not practise with the quad that has kept him out since Week 3 and Glenn called him week-to-week on Wednesday, so New York runs without its best back again. The Jets are 22nd in rushing yards and 26th in total offense, and they have scored 18.6 points a game; what keeps them in games is the other side — the fourth-ranked total defense, fifth in points allowed, second in yards per play, and the only defense besides Detroit yet to allow a point off a turnover. New England’s defense is the better drive-killer: 1.74 points a drive allowed, fourth, and 21% of drives ended without a first down, third-best against a league average over 31%. The Jets have lost eighteen of their last twenty in Foxborough, a fact that belongs in the room without being a model input. Omar Cooper Jr. is in his 21-day window and practised limited, and the Patriots’ TreVeyon Henderson was limited with an ankle.

Breece Hall (quad)
DNP · out since Week 3 · Glenn: "week-to-week", likely to miss Week 6
Patriots defense by drive
1.74 pts per drive allowed (4th) · 21.2% of drives end without a first down (3rd; lg avg 31.2%)
Jets offense
18.6 pts/gm (27th) · 94.0 rush yds/gm (22nd) · punts on 47.2% of possessions (2nd-most)

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Jets–Patriots Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)

What this read does not know

  • Every Jets status is an estimate. New York held a walkthrough on Wednesday, so Hall, Ossai, Adonai Mitchell and Dylan Parham as non-participants are the club’s projections, not observed practice. Glenn’s week-to-week on Hall is the only spoken word. Thursday is the first real report.
  • New England’s tackle situation is three "limited" listings and no designation. Campbell, Moses and Bryant could all play, or the line could start Lomu and a reshuffled right side against the best pass rush it has seen. We could not establish the contingency order beyond Lomu at left tackle. The protection read above is conditional on Friday.
  • A.J. Brown’s status on the Patriots is a live question and one preview gets it wrong. The official report has him limited with an ankle; an SI preview lists him on injured reserve, which is stale. If he plays, Maye’s target tree against a secondary that is itself down two corners changes; we do not know his snap share either way.
  • Records here are from ESPN, not Pro Football Reference. PFR returned a Cloudflare challenge to every request this session. ESPN and the clubs agree — New England 3-2 after beating the Raiders 45-17, the Jets 2-3 after beating Cleveland 17-12 — but the standing check against PFR was not possible.

Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: patriots.com — Week 6 injury report, Patriots vs Jets (2026-10-14) · newyorkjets.com — Jets vs Patriots Week 6 injury report, Wednesday (2026-10-14; walkthrough, estimated) · patriots.com — NFL Week 6 game preview: Jets at Patriots (records, Week 5 result, team stat table) · Sharp Football Analysis — Jets–Patriots Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · Patriots On SI — Patriots Week 6 injury report: A.J. Brown returns, tackles banged up · Yahoo Sports — NFL Week 6 live updates (Glenn on Hall, week-to-week) · CBS Sports — Maye "ready to go" after appearing on the report with a shoulder issue · SI — Jets vs Patriots Week 6 preview (records, Week 5 results; injury table partly stale, not used) · ESPN — 2026 NFL standings (used in place of Pro Football Reference, which 403’d this session)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 6 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 18
AWAY NYJ -2.7
vs NE -7.5
HOME NE +3.0
Fair (books) · NE 75% home win prob
Kalshi · NE — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Foxborough, MA PASS — no position

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Jets

25%

fair value (books)

Patriots

75%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

27%

Madden 27

73%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Jets at Patriots How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Jets at PatriotsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Jets at Patriots Kalshi spread ladder for Week 6: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Jets–Patriots spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Jets vs Patriots power ratings (Week 6) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    New York Jets-2.727thBelow Avg
    New England Patriots+3.04thPlayoff

    Jets and Patriots season outlook

    NYJNE
    Average wins6.310.1
    Make playoffs10%74%
    Win division3%41%
    Win Super Bowl0.5%6.9%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Jets vs Patriots — player pages

    All players →

    A.J. Brown

    WR

    Rhamondre Stevenson

    RB

    Breece Hall

    RB

    Garrett Wilson

    WR

    TreVeyon Henderson

    RB

    Drake Maye

    QB

    Kenyon Sadiq

    TE

    Hunter Henry

    TE

    Omar Cooper Jr.

    WR

    Geno Smith

    QB

    Braelon Allen

    RB

    Kyle Williams

    Adonai Mitchell

    Efton Chism III

    Eli Raridon

    DeMario Douglas

    Isaiah Davis

    Mason Taylor

    NY Jets D/ST

    Corey Kiner

    NE Patriots D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Why the model has the Patriots by 8.5

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 — the graded call is above.

    The model does not think this one is close. The Patriots rate 4th of 32 at +3.0, the Jets 27th at -2.7, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Patriots by 8.5 — 73% to win. That is the 2nd-widest gap among the 14 games on the Week 6 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Jets need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.0 (4th of 32) against a Jets defense at -2.0 (25th) — 5.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jets offense (-1.4, 28th) meets the Patriots defense (-0.3, 12th), a 1.1-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +0.7, 5th in the league, against +0.2 (23rd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Patriots at 10.1 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Jets at 6.3 (favored in 3) — 3.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Patriots' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Jets'.

    On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 16, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC East race.

    One team has owned this series: the Patriots are 39-9 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 3 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Patriots won 42-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Patriots are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 73% Patriots number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NYJNE, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the AFC East hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Jets vs Patriots on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NYJNE
    Market-implied (Patriots)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Patriots)
    75%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 75% for the Patriots. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Jets vs Patriots trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenuePatriotsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig76% 76cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Jets vs Patriots

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    Jets vs Patriots — frequently asked

    Who won Jets vs Patriots in Week 6?

    New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Patriots by 7.5 (75% to win), and the Patriots won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Jets vs Patriots before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Patriots by 7.5 points, a 75% win probability over the Jets. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NYJNE market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What would it take for the Jets to win?

    The 8.5-point line comes from a 5.7-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Jets still project at 25% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Jets defense (-2.0, 25th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.

    How do you take a position on Jets vs Patriots?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NYJNE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Patriots at 73c or below, or the Jets at 23c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Patriots host the Jets?

    New York Jets visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.

    What does the model project for the Patriots and Jets this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Patriots at 10.1 wins (favored in 13) and the Jets at 6.3 (favored in 3). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Patriots' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Jets', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Jets vs Patriots?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NYJNE, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Jets vs Patriots on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NYJNE has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 73% on a team like the Patriots?

    71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Patriots at 73% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 8.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Jets to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 25% against a market price implying 24%, an edge of +1.3 points. Model 25% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 24% on NYJ — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Patriots hub →Jets hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 6 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 16. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Jets–Patriots, Week 16 →

    Next up for each team

    Jets: Week 7 vs DolphinsModel line →Patriots: Week 7 at BearsModel line →

    More Week 6 matchups

    Seahawks at BroncosModel: evenTexans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7

    Full Week 6 board →Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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