Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Colts by 1.5 (54% to win); the Ravens won, so that call missed. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game model had the Colts by 1.5 (54% to win). The Ravens won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Colts: +3c — we archived the Colts at 37c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 40c on Sep 12. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
This was our loudest call of the Sunday slate — a STRONG tier and a 14.9-point disagreement with Kalshi, published on Indianapolis. Baltimore ran for 202 yards, Derrick Henry scored three times, Lamar Jackson averaged thirteen yards an attempt and the Colts were down 28-6 before the second quarter was half over.
Ravens 41—Colts 23
Final✗ Call missedOwn this one plainly, because it was the largest edge we published on the slate and it was wrong in both directions. Our stored pre-game probability had Indianapolis at 54.4% at home against a Kalshi price of 39.5c — a 14.9-point gap, our STRONG tier, published at an entry of 36.5c. Baltimore won by eighteen. The one thing that went our way is the part nobody can spend: the contract closed at 40.5c, four cents of positive closing-line value, meaning the market drifted toward our number right up until the game refuted both of us. The DraftKings line told the same story in miniature — Baltimore opened -3.5 and closed -3, half a point toward Indianapolis, and Baltimore won by eighteen. So this is one of only two games on the slate where the closing line moved toward the eventual loser, and we were leaning on that same door. A 14.9-point disagreement with a liquid market is not an edge you inspect after the fact; it is a number that should have triggered a review before publication. The handoff proposes exactly that gate.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 1 to 48.5; the game landed on 64.
Q2
Jonathan Taylor scored from a yard out on the opening possession and the extra point was blocked, 6-0. Baltimore then scored on four straight drives — Jackson from five, Henry from four, a fifty-four-yard throw to Zay Flowers, Henry from thirty-two — and led 28-6 with five minutes left in the half.
Q4
Henry averaged six yards a carry with a long of thirty-two and scored from four, thirty-two and three. Baltimore finished with 202 rushing yards on a Colts front that had been the pre-season case for the home number. The third score, twelve minutes into the fourth, made it 38-16 and ended the game as a contest.
Q2
Jackson threw twenty-five times and averaged thirteen yards per attempt for a 124.2 rating. Flowers caught five for 150, Chris Moore caught one for fifty-three. Baltimore gained 506 yards to Indianapolis’s 251 and still lost the penalty count ten to four.
Q4
Jones went nineteen of thirty-one for 166 with a touchdown and an interception to Roquan Smith, and took two sacks. Indianapolis held the ball for 24:40. Taylor ran for ninety-eight and two scores and lost a fumble, and Spencer Shrader missed the extra point that made the opening drive worth six instead of seven.
Reporting verified 2026-09-13. Further sources: ESPN box score — Ravens at Colts · ESPN game page — Ravens at Colts · ESPN — Week 1 highlights: best plays, moments, touchdowns
Baltimore fired John Harbaugh and hired Jesse Minter; Indianapolis brings Daniel Jones back from an Achilles tear with zero preseason snaps. Both offensive lines are breaking in new pieces at the same time, and the page above already names the Colts as its value side — at 40 cents on Kalshi, the widest moneyline gap of any game in this batch. The trenches explain some of why.
Ravens interior protection · Colts interior rush
Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum left for Las Vegas in free agency, so Jovaughn Gwyn starts at center and rookie Vega Ioane at right guard — both making their first NFL start, on the road, against DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. The complication is on the Colts' side: Buckner did not practice Friday with a hamstring issue and carries no designation, because Indianapolis ruled nobody out. If he plays, this is the clearest mismatch on the field. If he sits, it softens a lot.
Colts protection · Ravens pass rush
Indianapolis returns a line PFF ranks fourth in the league, with Quenton Nelson coming off his best grade since 2020. Baltimore's answer up front was signing Trey Hendrickson for four years and $112 million — but Nnamdi Madubuike is out with the neck injury, and the Ravens say he is close rather than back. A pass rush built to work off an interior push loses the push for a week.
Ravens left tackle · Colts edge
This is the swing matchup on the Baltimore side of the ball. If Stanley holds up one-on-one, the Ravens can keep a back or tight end in the route and the offense finds a rhythm early. If Latu is winning, Baltimore has to slide protection toward him all afternoon, which is exactly what a rookie right guard does not need. Nobody covering the game has committed to a side, and neither do we.
Colts boundary · Ravens receivers
Indianapolis paid two first-round picks plus Adonai Mitchell to take Gardner from the Jets, and this is the first time the investment lines up. The draft version of this read assumed a shorthanded Ravens room; that changed Friday. Zay Flowers was removed from the injury report entirely, so the target share Gardner is defending is intact — only Devontez Walker is questionable. No outlet has reported a shadow assignment, so treat this as a side-of-the-field matchup, not a man-to-man one.
Colts run offense · Ravens run defense
Taylor is coming off a 1,600-yard, 18-touchdown season, and the number that matters here is the one from the Colts' losses: in all seven of them last season he was held under 87 yards. Baltimore allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game in the league, and new coordinator Anthony Weaver's stated plan is gang tackling rather than a single-player answer. This is the closest individual battle on the field.
Colts quarterback
Jones is the confirmed starter over Anthony Richardson, returning from a torn Achilles with no preseason snaps. He says he expects to be 100 percent, and there is no way to test that claim against a real pass rush until it happens. The Ravens have three healthy edge rushers and one plan: find out early.
Source: NFL.com — Jones "absolutely" expects to be ready for Week 1
Ravens quarterback · Colts pass rush
The Ringer's preseason defense rankings put Indianapolis 16th, with a strong secondary in Gardner, Ward and Bynum and one stated ceiling: pass-rush depth. Jackson faced the highest blitz rate in the league last season and still turned pressure into sacks less often than almost any quarterback in the league. If Buckner sits, the Colts have to manufacture pressure with numbers, which is the thing Jackson punishes most.
Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: Colts — first unofficial depth chart of 2026 · Colts — no players ruled out for Week 1 · Ravens — Madubuike out, "really, really close" · Russell Street Report — Friday game-status report · PFF — 2026 offensive line rankings · The Ringer — ranking all 32 defenses, 2026 · NFL.com — Sauce Gardner traded to the Colts
BAL
+1.2
IND
+0.0
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Ravens
46%
model win prob
Colts
54%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
54%
Madden 27
46%
Madden 27
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Colts −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Colts −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Colts −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Colts −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Colts −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Colts −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Colts −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsColts −10.5 → Colts −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Every Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justice Hill | 3+ rec | 2.5¢ | 38% | -36.0¢ ? | over · Kalshi 3.2¢under · ProphetX 64¢ |
| Daniel Jones | 175+ pass yds | 3.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 4.3¢ |
| Josh Downs | 6+ rec | 2.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 3.2¢under · Novig 78.5¢ |
See all 3 priced prop strikes for this game on the board →+ 231 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Week 1 is the widest-error week of the season for every model, ours included — nothing about 2026 is on tape yet, and the ratings are priors, not measurements. With that stated plainly: the Colts rate +0.0 (15th), the Ravens +1.2 (13th), and the model opens on the Colts by 1.5, 54% to win. Every number on this page will move more between now and kickoff than it will in any week that follows.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.7 projected wins for the Colts against 9.2 for the Ravens, favored in 10 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Ravens'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.0 (12th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.7 (23rd) — 2.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (+1.1, 11th) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 11th), a 1.4-point gap.
One team has owned this series: the Colts are 8-4 in 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 3 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Colts won 22-19 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Colts are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Colts at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13BALIND contract implies 50% for the Colts against our 54% — a 4.4-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Colts as the value side.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 54% for the Colts. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Colts | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% 50c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 40% 40c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had the Colts by 1.5 (54% to win), and the Ravens won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Colts by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Ravens. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13BALIND market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Less reliable than any other week, and we would rather say so. The +0.0 / +1.2 ratings behind the 1.5-point line are preseason priors built from prior-season performance and roster change — no 2026 snaps are in them. Week 1 is the point of maximum uncertainty for the model and for the market, which is also why prices move most in it.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13BALIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Colts YES is quoted around 50c against our 54% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Baltimore Ravens visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 8.7 wins (favored in 10) and the Ravens at 9.2 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13BALIND. The Colts YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 54%. That is a 4.4pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13BALIND has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Colts at 54% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 54% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +4.4 points. Model 54% vs market 50% on IND. We pass — no position.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 1 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
