Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, Kalshi implies 36% for the Colts in Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 1 2026, while our model has the Colts by 1 (53% to win) — a 17.7pp gap. Value side: the Colts.
BAL
+1.3
IND
-0.1
Ravens
47%
model win prob
Colts
53%
model win prob
Power-rating comparison
Ravens–Colts is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Ravens rate +1.3 (12th of 32) against -0.1 for the Colts (15th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.4-point gap between them, so the model lands at 53% for the Colts anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 6th-closest of the 16 games in Week 1, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.6 projected wins for the Colts against 9.3 for the Ravens, favored in 10 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Ravens'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.2 (11th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.7 (23rd) — 2.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (+0.9, 14th) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 12th), a 1.2-point gap.
One team has owned this series: the Colts are 8-4 in 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 3 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Colts won 22-19 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Colts are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Colts at 53% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13BALIND contract implies 36% for the Colts against our 53% — a 17.7-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Colts as the value side at 36c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Colts in Week 1?
Our power-rating model favors the Colts by 1 points, a 53% win probability over the Ravens. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13BALIND market implies 36% for the Colts — a 17.7pp gap versus the model.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Colts (-0.1, 15th) and Ravens (+1.3, 12th) are only 1.4 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 53%/47%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Colts?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13BALIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Colts YES is quoted around 36c against our 53% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Colts host the Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
What does the model project for the Colts and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 8.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 53% on a team like the Colts?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Colts at 53% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.