Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Ravens
39%
model win prob
Colts
61%
model win prob
Model line
Colts −3.5
Kalshi (Colts)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Colts — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 1, the Baltimore Ravens travel to face the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Colts 13th of 32 (Average tier, +0.7) and the Ravens 18th (Average tier, -0.5). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Colts by 3.5 — a 61% win probability for the Colts.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 61% (Colts) / 39% (Ravens) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Colts in Week 1?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Colts by 3.5 points and gives them a 61% win probability over the Ravens. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Ravens vs Colts?
Home win probability 61% (Colts), away 39% (Ravens). That comes from a power-rating differential of +1.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Colts rate 13th of 32 (Average tier), the Ravens 18th (Average tier).
Can you trade Ravens vs Colts on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Colts host the Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, September 13, 2026 in NFL Week 1, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.