Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers
Updated · model ratings
Thursday, September 24, 2026 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Packers by 6 in Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers, NFL Week 3 2026 — 66% to win, and Packers 5th of 32, Falcons 16th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Packers at 61c or below (or Falcons at 29c or below) is where the model would take a position.
ATL
-0.4
GB
+3.0
Kalshi hasn't priced this game yet. Get the full Week 3 card free and you'll have our number in hand the morning it opens.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Falcons
34%
model win prob
Packers
66%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
42%
Madden 27
58%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Packers at 61c or below, or the Falcons at 29c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Preseason offer
Gridiron Edge Pro — 50% off your first payment
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$75 for the first year, or $7.50 for the first month. Code applies automatically. Ends Sep 10.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. How it works →
Thursday night's number, and what would make it a position
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers kicks off on Thursday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Packers at +3.0 (5th of 32, Playoff tier) against the Falcons at -0.4 (16th, Average tier), which after home field comes out Packers by 6 and 66% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.3 (5th of 32) against a Falcons defense at -0.7 (17th) — 4.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (+0.2, 19th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 14th), a 0.7-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.3 (5th of 32) against a Falcons defense at -0.7 (17th) — 4.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (+0.2, 19th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 14th), a 0.7-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Falcons at 8.6 (favored in 8) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Packers' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Falcons'. Nothing on the Falcons' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the calendar, the Falcons are on a 4-day turnaround and the Packers are on a 4-day turnaround. The Falcons come in off the Panthers, the Packers off the Jets. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Packers 66%, Falcons 34%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Packers contracts a buy at 61c or below and Falcons contracts a buy at 29c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Falcons vs Packers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB
- Market-implied (Packers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Packers)
- 66%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Packers at 61c or below, or the Falcons at 29c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Falcons vs Packers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Packers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Falcons vs Packers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Falcons vs Packers in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Packers by 6 points, a 66% win probability over the Falcons. The Packers rate 5th of 32 (+3.0) and the Falcons 16th (-0.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Falcons vs Packers?
Packers offense (+3.3, 5th of 32) against Falcons defense (-0.7, 17th) — 4.0 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Falcons vs Packers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Packers at 61c or below, or the Falcons at 29c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Packers host the Falcons?
Atlanta Falcons visit the Green Bay Packers on Thursday, September 24, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 3, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.
What does the model project for the Packers and Falcons this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 13) and the Falcons at 8.6 (favored in 8). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Falcons', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Falcons vs Packers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Packers at 61c or below or the Falcons at 29c or below, off a 6-point line.
Can you trade Falcons vs Packers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Packers?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Packers at 66% over the Falcons sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Week 1 model card — all 16 games, our number vs the market. Sent Wednesday Sept 9. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 3 matchups
Drafting this month? Same model, fantasy side.
The 2026 projection engine behind these numbers also runs a free fantasy draft desk inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor — the ranked board, the best available at your pick, sleepers and busts vs consensus ADP, and a who-do-I-draft call mid-draft. 8 tools, no account.
Open the fantasy draft assistant →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale