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Home/NFL/Week 3/Falcons vs Packers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 3 · 2026

Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14

Final. Packers' next game: Packers vs Patriots, Week 9 →Upset: Falcons closed +195 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Thursday, September 24, 2026 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Quick Answer

Final (Thursday, September 24, 2026): Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14 — NFL Week 3, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 4.5 (65% to win); the Falcons won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Packers at 70c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 4.5 (65% to win). The Falcons won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Packers: -2c — we archived the Packers at 72c on Sep 18; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 70c on Sep 24. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 3 · 2026-09-28

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Falcons to winModel 35% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 30% on ATL — kept as the pre-game record.30c35%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Atlanta 35, Green Bay 14: Michael Penix Jr. came back from a torn ACL and the Falcons ran for 242 yards at Lambeau

An Atlanta offense that had scored 16 points in two games under Cooper Rush put up 35 in Penix’s first start since last November. Bijan Robinson ran for 194 on 29 carries, Drake London caught nine for a career-high 194, and the Falcons held the ball for 37:05 while Green Bay managed 17 rushing yards on nine carries. The Falcons led 17-7 at the half and 24-7 after three, Green Bay went 0 for 1 on fourth down inside the Atlanta 10, and the 49 combined points cleared a closing DraftKings total of 43.5.

Falcons 35—Packers 14

Final✗ Call missed

Three separate claims sit on this page, they point at different teams, and the honest version keeps them apart. First, the chip. It grades our stored pre-game probability, which had Green Bay at 65.5%, and Green Bay lost by 21 — a miss. That row is v2.3 market-anchored with the anchoring weight at zero, so the 4.5-point fair margin and the 65.5% built from it are the market’s own numbers restated, which is why the page reads "Packers by 4.5". The model’s independent read is the separate figure on the same row: Green Bay by 5.9, a lean of 1.4 points further toward the Packers than the market. The QB gate had this game ADJUSTED — Atlanta’s rating was built on Tua Tagovailoa, Penix started — so the lean could never have published above WATCH, and at 1.4 points it tiered NONE and did not publish at all. It missed by 27 points of margin. The model was wrong about this game in both of its own numbers and we are not going to soften that. Second, the position. The ledger holds one game-line row: HIGH tier, the Atlanta game-winner contract, entered at 30.5c on the 12:00 UTC pass with Kalshi at 69.5c on Green Bay, an edge of 4.0 points against a fair price of 34.5%, archived at 31.5c just before kickoff for +1c of closing-line value. Atlanta won, so that contract settles at $1. Read what that edge actually was before giving the model credit for it: at a weight of zero the fair price is the posted market line, so the 4.0 points is Kalshi pricing Atlanta below the rest of the market — not our model preferring Atlanta. Our model preferred Green Bay. The position won on a gap between two markets while the house read lost. Thursday’s preview also said the ADJUSTED gate should keep any game-line position off the board on this game; the edges board carries no QB-gate filter and this row cleared every check it does apply, so it most likely rendered, but nobody on our side saw it rendered before kickoff. Until that is established it is reported here and not counted as a win on the record. Third, the closing-line row further down this page says the market moved against our side, Packers from 72c on Sep 18 to 70c before kickoff. That row measures the directional read, Green Bay, off the price tape; it is not the Atlanta position and the two CLV numbers answer different questions. On the player board there was nothing to grade. The final pre-kickoff run published no PLAY row on either team. One Green Bay UNDER — Chris Brooks under 14.5 rushing yards, HIGH — exists only on a run the board superseded at 18:06 UTC; Brooks did not record a carry, so it resolved our way, and it still does not count, because a call nobody could see is not a record in either direction. Ten WATCH rows on the served board all resolved their way — Kaleb Johnson under 29.5, 39.5 and 49.5 rushing against 6 yards, Jordan Love under 9.5, 14.5 and 19.5 rushing against 0, and receptions overs on Austin Hooper, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jonnu Smith and MarShawn Lloyd — and they are graded apart, as always, never folded in. Six of those ten are two ladders, so it is closer to six views than ten.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Packers −7.5 → Packers −4.5
Total
46.5 → 43.5
To win
ATL +285 / GB −360 → ATL +195 / GB −238

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 3 to 43.5; the game landed on 49.

How it happened

Q1

Penix threw a pick on his third pass, then Bijan ended a 27-drive red-zone drought

Xavier McKinney intercepted Penix at the Green Bay 40 on the Falcons’ opening series. After an exchange of punts the Packers went 87 yards in nine plays — a 45-yard Matthew Golden catch on third-and-11 from their own 12 — to lead 7-0 on a four-yard Christian Watson touchdown. Atlanta answered with a 55-yard Robinson run to the 5 and a three-yard Robinson score. That drive gave Atlanta its first red-zone snap of the season after 27 straight drives without one, per ESPN Research tied for the second-longest such streak to open a season in 45 years.

After one
Falcons 7, Packers 7
Robinson on the drive
55-yd run, 3-yd TD
Red-zone drought ended
27 drives to open the season

ESPN — Falcons upset Packers in Michael Penix Jr.’s return from ACL

Q2

A blocked 47-yarder, then Hooper with 59 seconds left for a 17-7 half

Nick Folk put Atlanta ahead from 44 yards. Green Bay drove to the Atlanta 28 behind a 34-yard pass-interference flag and sent Trey Smack out for 47, and Zach Harrison blocked it. The Falcons went 63 yards in eight plays and Penix found Austin Hooper from five with 59 seconds left. The Packers were booed off at halftime, per ESPN.

Halftime
Falcons 17, Packers 7
Penix, Q2–Q3
13 of 15 · 5 of 5 on third down (ESPN)
Robinson, first half
111 rushing yards (ESPN)

ESPN — box score

Q3

Green Bay failed on fourth-and-1 at the 7, and Atlanta went 92 yards the other way

The Packers opened the half with a ten-play drive to the Atlanta 7 and threw incomplete to Watson on fourth-and-1. Atlanta took over at its own 8 and went 92 yards in ten plays and 6:18, with a 31-yard Robinson run on second-and-4, and Brian Robinson Jr. scored from seven. That made it three scores, and Green Bay never got closer than two.

After three
Falcons 24, Packers 7
Atlanta rushing
41 carries · 242 yds · 5.9 per carry
Green Bay rushing
9 carries · 17 yds

ESPN — box score

Q4

London for 68 and 40, Robinson’s second score, and a pick at the 3 to finish it

Drake London caught a 68-yarder on third-and-2 from the Atlanta 16 to set up a 31-yard Folk field goal. Golden’s 15-yard touchdown cut it to 27-14 with 8:18 left, and London’s 40-yard catch set up Robinson’s two-yard run and a Penix two-point pass to Chris Blair for 35-14. Green Bay’s last drive reached second-and-goal at the 10 before Xavier Watts intercepted Love at the 3.

London
9 rec · 194 yds on 10 targets · long 68
Robinson
29 car · 194 yds · 2 TD
Love
28 of 53 · 312 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. result, pnl_cents and graded_at were null on the Week 3 rows when this was written — grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • Whether the HIGH Atlanta game-winner row was visible to readers before kickoff was not seen directly. The edges board has no QB-gate filter and the row cleared every check it does apply, so it most likely rendered; Thursday’s preview said an ADJUSTED game should publish no game-line position. If it did not render, it is not a record and the second half of the call review is wrong.
  • The page carries two closing-line numbers on purpose. The row that says the market moved against our side (Packers 72c to 70c) measures the directional read on the price tape. The +1c on the Atlanta contract is the ledger position’s entry-to-close. Neither is DraftKings’ line.
  • DraftKings moved from Packers −7.5 to −4.5 and from −360 to −238 between open and close. ESPN’s core-odds record gives the two numbers, not when they moved. Atlanta confirmed Penix as its starter earlier in the week and the move points the same way, but this recap does not claim that caused it.
  • The ESPN game story has Love 28 of 52 and Atlanta at 244 rushing yards and 6.3 per carry; the ESPN box score has 28 of 53 and 242 on 41 carries. Every number above is the box score. No grade changes on either.
  • A second-quarter sack of Love was first ruled a fumble recovered by Atlanta and then reviewed. The play-by-play text is cut off, Green Bay punted on the next snap and the box score shows no Packers fumble lost, so the ruling appears to have been reversed; it is left out of the moments.
  • total_centre is NULL on the stored fair-value row, so the house holds no model total for this game and graded nothing on the 49 points against DraftKings’ 43.5.
  • Every moment above comes from one outlet — ESPN’s box score and two ESPN stories (Demovsky and Raimondi; Raimondi). The streak and halftime-split figures are ESPN Research’s and are not independently confirmed. ESPN’s summary carried no weather block; attendance, 76,955, is ESPN’s figure.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price, and the prop outcomes are resolutions against the box score, not settlements read off the exchange.

Reporting verified 2026-09-25. Further sources: ESPN — Falcons upset Packers in Michael Penix Jr.’s return from ACL (Rob Demovsky and Marc Raimondi) · ESPN — Penix’s return revives Falcons’ attack in rout of Packers (Marc Raimondi) · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

QB-adjusted: Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start in ten months, at Lambeau, on three days of preparation

Atlanta confirmed Penix as its Thursday starter on Monday, which makes this a QB-adjusted game on our board — the Falcons’ rating was built on a different quarterback, so the model line here carries a correction rather than a clean read, and we publish no position on it. The football question underneath is narrower than the quarterback headline suggests: Green Bay is missing two offensive line starters and its lead running back, and Atlanta has not reached the red zone once this season.

Falcons pass offense · Packers secondary

Michael Penix Jr., ten months after the ACL tear, against a short week

Close to even

Atlanta named Penix its starter on Monday and he practised in full on Wednesday, carrying a knee designation on the report without a game status ([atlantafalcons.com](https://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/michael-penix-jr-starting-qb-thursday-night-football-vs-packers)). This is his first start since tearing an ACL against Carolina, and it arrives on a Thursday, which means the install he is running is a short-week install. The case for him is real and it is about ball security rather than explosiveness: he threw nine touchdowns against three interceptions across nine starts last season and led the league in interception rate. The case against is that the offense around him has been the worst in football for two weeks, and a quarterback change does not by itself fix a unit that has not once crossed an opponent’s twenty.

Penix 2025 starts
9 starts, 9 TD, 3 INT — lowest INT rate in the NFL
Atlanta offense, Weeks 1–2
worst EPA/play in the league
Atlanta red-zone trips, 2026
none — the only team yet to reach one

Source: Yahoo Sports — Falcons vs Packers Week 3 preview

Falcons pass rush · Packers pass protection

Atlanta’s front, minus Samson Ebukam, against a Packers line missing two starters

Edge: Falcons

This is the matchup that most plausibly decides the game, and both sides of it are short-handed. Green Bay ruled out guard Aaron Banks (knee/toe) and offensive lineman Zach Bako-Bewele (knee) on Wednesday, which reshuffles the interior in front of Jordan Love on a short week ([packers.com](https://www.packers.com/news/packers-rule-out-four-list-two-questionable-vs-falcons-week-3-injury-report-2026)). Atlanta cannot send its full complement at it either: edge rusher Samson Ebukam is out with a hamstring, the only Falcon ruled out. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor practised in full through a rib issue. What is left is a reshuffled Green Bay interior against an Atlanta rotation that is a man light on the edge, which is closer to even than the injury headlines on either side read in isolation.

Packers ruled OUT
Jayden Reed (neck), Aaron Banks (knee/toe), Zach Bako-Bewele (knee), Warren Brinson (calf)
Packers questionable
Javon Hargrave (knee/concussion), Anthony Campbell (ankle)
Falcons ruled OUT
Samson Ebukam (hamstring) — the only one

Source: packers.com — Week 3 injury report vs Atlanta

Packers run offense · Falcons run defense

Green Bay’s backfield is a committee, and it has not settled

Edge: Packers

Josh Jacobs has been on the commissioner’s exempt list since 30 August and has no return date; his next court appearance is in November ([Yahoo Sports](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/packers-running-back-josh-jacobs-183502056.html)). Green Bay acquired Kaleb Johnson from Pittsburgh to work alongside MarShawn Lloyd, and through two weeks the snaps have moved around — Chris Brooks led the room in Week 1, Johnson took sixteen offensive snaps in Week 2 and Matt LaFleur said on 20 September that he is "getting more comfortable with our offense, with our terminology, with protection schemes. So he’ll probably earn more opportunities" ([Heavy](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/green-bay-packers/kaleb-johnson-more-opportunity/)). A home opener against the league’s least productive offense is the game script that lets a coach hand the ball to whoever he has decided he trusts. Which of the three that is has not been said out loud, and that is exactly why we are not publishing a position on any of them.

Josh Jacobs
Commissioner’s exempt list since 2026-08-30, no return date
Kaleb Johnson, Week 2
16 offensive snaps, 10 on running plays
LaFleur, 2026-09-20
"He’ll probably earn more opportunities"

Source: Heavy — LaFleur teases more opportunity for Kaleb Johnson

What this read does not know

  • This game is QB-adjusted, and that is a weaker read than a normal one. Penix is confirmed, but he is not the quarterback Atlanta’s power rating was built on, so the model line on this page carries a flat league-average correction rather than a Penix-specific one. A flat correction will overcharge some quarterback changes and undercharge others. We publish no game-line position on a QB-adjusted game, and the model lean on this page is never described as stronger than a watch.
  • How much of the offense Penix actually runs. He was a full participant on Wednesday with a knee designation and has not started a game in ten months ([atlantafalcons.com](https://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/michael-penix-jr-starting-qb-thursday-night-football-vs-packers)). Nothing in the reporting establishes a snap count, a designed-run allowance, or whether the mobility that was part of his game before the ACL tear is back. Every projection of Atlanta’s passing volume tonight is an assumption about a player with no 2026 sample.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is active behind him for the first time this season (full participant, oblique). That is a live second quarterback on the sideline rather than an emergency arm, which widens the distribution on every Atlanta passing and pass-catching contract in a way a single projection does not capture.
  • Green Bay’s running back split is unresolved and we are not guessing at it. The reporting establishes that Jacobs is unavailable and that Johnson is earning work; it does not establish a starter or a carry share. We are publishing no position on any Green Bay rushing contract this week for that reason.
  • Two weeks is not a rate. "Worst EPA/play in the league" and "no red-zone trips" are real and they are also a two-game sample against two specific defenses. Neither should be treated as a stable property of this offense, particularly with a different quarterback now running it.
  • No game-day weather read was taken for this write-up. Lambeau in late September can matter to a game that both teams may want to play on the ground; nothing here is conditioned on a forecast.

Reporting verified 2026-09-24. Further sources: atlantafalcons.com — Michael Penix Jr. named starting QB for Thursday Night Football · packers.com — Packers rule out four, list two questionable vs. Falcons · Yahoo Sports — Falcons vs Packers: preview, prediction, odds, injuries · Yahoo Sports — Falcons final Week 3 injury report · Yahoo Sports — Packers RB Josh Jacobs to start season on exempt list · Heavy — Matt LaFleur teases more opportunity for Kaleb Johnson · ESPN — Falcons to start QB Michael Penix on Thursday vs. Packers

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 3 MODEL LINE
Thu, Sep 24
AWAY ATL -0.5
vs GB -4.5
HOME GB +1.4
Fair (books) · GB 65% home win prob
Kalshi · GB — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Green Bay, WI PASS — no position

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Falcons

35%

fair value (books)

Packers

65%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

42%

Madden 27

58%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Falcons at Packers How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Falcons at PackersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Falcons at Packers Kalshi spread ladder for Week 3: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Falcons–Packers spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Falcons vs Packers power ratings (Week 3) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Atlanta Falcons-0.518thAverage
    Green Bay Packers+1.410thPlayoff

    Falcons and Packers season outlook

    ATLGB
    Average wins7.99.7
    Make playoffs38%57%
    Win division32%11%
    Win Super Bowl2.7%3.5%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Falcons vs Packers — player pages

    All players →

    Bijan Robinson

    RB

    Tucker Kraft

    TE

    Jordan Love

    QB

    Drake London

    WR

    Josh Jacobs

    RB

    Christian Watson

    WR

    Kyle Pitts

    TE

    Matthew Golden

    WR

    Brian Robinson

    RB

    Zachariah Branch

    WR

    Jahan Dotson

    Michael Penix Jr.

    Austin Hooper

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Thursday night's number, and what would make it a position

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14 — the graded call is above.

    Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers kicks off on Thursday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Packers at +1.4 (10th of 32, Playoff tier) against the Falcons at -0.5 (18th, Average tier), which after home field and the QB-out term comes out Packers by 6 and 66% to win. One input in this line is not a rating: the Falcons are without their usual starting quarterback (Michael Penix Jr. starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 1.5 points toward the Packers — already inside the number above.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +1.6 (11th of 32) against a Falcons defense at -0.1 (9th) — 1.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (-0.3, 20th) meets the Packers defense (-0.2, 10th), a 0.1-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Falcons at 7.9 (favored in 6) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Packers' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Falcons'. Nothing on the Falcons' schedule projects harder than this one.

    On the calendar, the Falcons are on a 4-day turnaround and the Packers are on a 4-day turnaround. The Falcons come in off the Panthers, the Packers off the Jets. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

    Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Packers' favour, plus 4 playoff games. They last met in 2023: Falcons won 25-24 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Packers are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 66% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Falcons vs Packers on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB
    Market-implied (Packers)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Packers)
    65%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 65% for the Packers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Falcons vs Packers trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenuePackersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig69% 69cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Falcons vs Packers

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    Falcons vs Packers — frequently asked

    Who won Falcons vs Packers in Week 3?

    Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14 — final, played Thursday, September 24, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 4.5 (65% to win), and the Falcons won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Falcons vs Packers before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Packers by 4.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Falcons. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Falcons vs Packers?

    Packers offense (+1.6, 11th of 32) against Falcons defense (-0.1, 9th) — 1.7 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.

    How do you take a position on Falcons vs Packers?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Packers at 63c or below, or the Falcons at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Packers host the Falcons?

    Atlanta Falcons visit the Green Bay Packers on Thursday, September 24, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 3, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.

    What does the model project for the Packers and Falcons this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 11) and the Falcons at 7.9 (favored in 6). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Falcons', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Falcons vs Packers?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Falcons vs Packers on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 3 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Packers?

    68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Packers at 66% over the Falcons sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Falcons to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 35% against a market price implying 30%, an edge of +4.5 points. Model 35% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 30% on ATL — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Falcons: Week 4 at SaintsModel line →Packers: Week 4 at BuccaneersModel line →

    More Week 3 matchups

    Chargers at BillsModel: Bills −7.5Panthers at BrownsModel: Browns −1.5Jets at LionsModel: Lions −6Texans at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5Patriots at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −0.5Chiefs at DolphinsModel: Chiefs −1Titans at GiantsModel: evenBengals at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Seahawks at CommandersModel: Seahawks −8Cardinals at 49ersModel: 49ers −7.5Vikings at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −2.5Ravens at CowboysModel: Ravens −0.5Raiders at SaintsModel: Saints −5Rams at BroncosModel: Rams −0.5Eagles at BearsModel: Eagles −2

    Full Week 3 board →Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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