Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers

Thursday, September 24, 2026 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Falcons

38%

model win prob

Packers

62%

model win prob

Model line

Packers −4.5

Kalshi (Packers)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Packers — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Atlanta Falcons-1.122ndAverage

Green Bay Packers+0.712thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 3, the Atlanta Falcons travel to face the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Packers 12th of 32 (Average tier, +0.7) and the Falcons 22nd (Average tier, -1.1). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Packers by 4.5 — a 62% win probability for the Packers.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 62% (Packers) / 38% (Falcons) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Falcons vs Packers — frequently asked

Who is favored in Falcons vs Packers in Week 3?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Packers by 4.5 points and gives them a 62% win probability over the Falcons. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Falcons vs Packers?

Home win probability 62% (Packers), away 38% (Falcons). That comes from a power-rating differential of +1.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Packers rate 12th of 32 (Average tier), the Falcons 22nd (Average tier).

Can you trade Falcons vs Packers on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.