Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers
Thursday, September 24, 2026 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Packers by 5.5 in Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers, NFL Week 3 2026 — 66% to win, and Packers 5th of 32, Falcons 16th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Packers at 61c or below (or Falcons at 29c or below) is where the model would take a position.
ATL
-0.3
GB
+2.9
Falcons
34%
model win prob
Packers
66%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGBhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Packers at 61c or below, or the Falcons at 29c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Thursday night's number, and what would make it a position
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers kicks off on Thursday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Packers at +2.9 (5th of 32, Playoff tier) against the Falcons at -0.3 (16th, Average tier), which after home field comes out Packers by 5.5 and 66% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.2 (5th of 32) against a Falcons defense at -0.6 (17th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (+0.2, 19th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 15th), a 0.7-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.2 (5th of 32) against a Falcons defense at -0.6 (17th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (+0.2, 19th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 15th), a 0.7-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Falcons at 8.6 (favored in 8) — 1.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Packers' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Falcons'. Nothing on the Falcons' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the calendar, the Falcons are on a 4-day turnaround and the Packers are on a 4-day turnaround. The Falcons come in off the Panthers, the Packers off the Jets. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Packers 66%, Falcons 34%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Packers contracts a buy at 61c or below and Falcons contracts a buy at 29c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Falcons vs Packers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Falcons vs Packers in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Packers by 5.5 points, a 66% win probability over the Falcons. The Packers rate 5th of 32 (+2.9) and the Falcons 16th (-0.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Falcons vs Packers?
Packers offense (+3.2, 5th of 32) against Falcons defense (-0.6, 17th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Falcons vs Packers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP24ATLGB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Packers at 61c or below, or the Falcons at 29c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Packers host the Falcons?
Atlanta Falcons visit the Green Bay Packers on Thursday, September 24, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 3, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.
What does the model project for the Packers and Falcons this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 13) and the Falcons at 8.6 (favored in 8). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Falcons', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Packers?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Packers at 66% over the Falcons sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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