Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, January 10, 2027 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Chiefs by 8 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs, NFL Week 18 2026 — 67% to win, and the 16th-widest model gap in Week 18. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LVKC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Chiefs at 62c or below (or Raiders at 28c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LV
-6.0
KC
-0.6
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Raiders
33%
model win prob
Chiefs
67%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
32%
Madden 27
68%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LVKC hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Chiefs at 62c or below, or the Raiders at 28c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Raiders at Chiefs
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Chiefs by 8
The model does not think this one is close. The Chiefs rate 20th of 32 at -0.6, the Raiders 32nd at -6.0, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Chiefs by 8 — 67% to win. That is the 16th-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 18 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Raiders need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Chiefs grade -0.8 on that side of the ball (18th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.2 (32nd) — 3.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (-0.2, 20th) meets the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th), a 1.8-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chiefs at 8.2 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1) — 2.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Chiefs' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Chiefs' entire schedule.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 4, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC West race.
One team has owned this series: the Chiefs are 34-14 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 3 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Raiders won 14-12 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Chiefs are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Chiefs here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LVKC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Chiefs 67%, Raiders 33%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Chiefs contracts a buy at 62c or below and Raiders contracts a buy at 28c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Chiefs on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LVKC
- Market-implied (Chiefs)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Chiefs)
- 67%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LVKC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Chiefs at 62c or below, or the Raiders at 28c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Raiders vs Chiefs trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chiefs | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Raiders vs Chiefs — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Chiefs in Week 18?
Our power-rating model picks the Chiefs by 8 points, a 67% win probability over the Raiders, for a projected score of Chiefs 25, Raiders 17 on a ratings-implied 42.5-point total. The Chiefs rate 20th of 32 (-0.6) and the Raiders 32nd (-6.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LVKC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Raiders to win?
The 8-point line comes from a 5.4-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Raiders still project at 33% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Chiefs?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LVKC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chiefs at 62c or below, or the Raiders at 28c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chiefs host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, January 10, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 18, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
What does the model project for the Chiefs and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chiefs at 8.2 wins (favored in 9) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Chiefs?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LVKC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Chiefs at 62c or below or the Raiders at 28c or below, off a 8-point line.
Can you trade Raiders vs Chiefs on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 18 game market is KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LVKC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Chiefs?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Chiefs at 67% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 8-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 4. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Raiders–Chiefs, Week 4 →
More Week 18 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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