Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Raiders

43%

model win prob

Chiefs

57%

model win prob

Model line

Chiefs −2.5

Kalshi (Chiefs)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Chiefs — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Las Vegas Raiders-4.030thBelow Avg

Kansas City Chiefs-4.031stBelow Avg

The prediction-market read

In Week 18, the Las Vegas Raiders travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Chiefs 31st of 32 (Below Avg tier, -4.0) and the Raiders 30th (Below Avg tier, -4.0). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Chiefs by 2.5 — a 57% win probability for the Chiefs.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 57% (Chiefs) / 43% (Raiders) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC West divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC West race. Track the full division on the AFC West hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Raiders vs Chiefs — frequently asked

Who is favored in Raiders vs Chiefs in Week 18?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Chiefs by 2.5 points and gives them a 57% win probability over the Raiders. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Raiders vs Chiefs?

Home win probability 57% (Chiefs), away 43% (Raiders). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.0 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Chiefs rate 31st of 32 (Below Avg tier), the Raiders 30th (Below Avg tier).

Can you trade Raiders vs Chiefs on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.