NFL Week 5 2026 Results: Our Predictions Graded
Updated · market prices
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Week 5 is final. The model went 9–5–1 straight up and 1–0 on published positions (Kalshi vs book consensus) — every game below is graded against its final score.
Each game links to its own page with the final score and how our call held up; the full record lives on the track record.
This week: NFL Week 8 predictions.
Week 5 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 15 games, graded below against the final scores. Each row shows the pre-game call.
- Cowboys over Buccaneers · pre-game call79%—
- Jaguars over Eagles · pre-game call76%—
- Bengals over Dolphins · pre-game call73%—
- Patriots over Raiders · pre-game call62%—
- Vikings over Saints · pre-game call59%—
- Jets over Browns · pre-game call59%—
- Steelers over Colts · pre-game call59%—
- Texans over Titans · pre-game call73%—
- Commanders over Giants · pre-game call62%—
- Broncos over Chargers · pre-game call62%—
- Lions over Cardinals · pre-game call69%—
- Bears over Packers · pre-game call55%—
- Seahawks over 49ers · pre-game call60%—
- Falcons over Ravens · pre-game call62%—
- Rams over Bills · pre-game call62%61.5¢
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored — it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play — the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
Week 5 in numbers
- 9–5–1 straight up for the model, every game graded below.
- 5 upsets by closing line among the 15 games recapped, led by the Buccaneers at +380 (+8.5): Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16.
- The line moved toward the winner in 8 of 15, toward the loser in 6, flat in 1; season to date, toward the winner in 49 of 105, toward the loser in 41, flat in 15.
Biggest moves of Week 5
- Eagles at Jaguars: moved 10 toward the Jaguars (Jaguars +2.5 → −7.5); Jaguars won by 2toward winner
- Ravens at Falcons: moved 7.5 toward the Falcons (Falcons +4.5 → −3); Ravens won by 7 anywaytoward loser
- Broncos at Chargers: moved 5.5 toward the Broncos (Chargers −2.5 → +3); Broncos won by 6toward winner
One line source: DraftKings, via ESPN — the opening and closing spread on each game, not a consensus of every platform. Every 2026 upset →
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 15 Week 5 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Buccaneers at Cowboys — Final: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16 · model had Cowboys (79%, pre-game)
- Eagles at Jaguars — Final: Eagles 17, Jaguars 19 · model had Jaguars (76%, pre-game)
- Bengals at Dolphins — Final: Bengals 31, Dolphins 24 · model had Bengals (73%, pre-game)
- Raiders at Patriots — Final: Raiders 17, Patriots 45 · model had Patriots (62%, pre-game)
- Vikings at Saints — Final: Vikings 23, Saints 13 · model had Vikings (59%, pre-game)
- Browns at Jets — Final: Browns 12, Jets 17 · model had Jets (59%, pre-game)
- Colts at Steelers — Final: Colts 22, Steelers 34 · model had Steelers (59%, pre-game)
- Texans at Titans — Final: Texans 26, Titans 3 · model had Texans (73%, pre-game)
- Giants at Commanders — Final: Giants 27, Commanders 27 (OT) · model had Commanders (62%, pre-game)
- Broncos at Chargers — Final: Broncos 23, Chargers 17 · model had Broncos (62%, pre-game)
- Lions at Cardinals — Final: Lions 45, Cardinals 21 · model had Lions (69%, pre-game)
- Bears at Packers — Final: Bears 7, Packers 31 · model had Bears (55%, pre-game)
- 49ers at Seahawks — Final: 49ers 32, Seahawks 29 · model had Seahawks (60%, pre-game)
- Ravens at Falcons — Final: Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT) · model had Falcons (62%, pre-game)
- Bills at Rams — Final: Bills 37, Rams 34 (OT) · model had Rams (62%, pre-game)
All 15 Week 5 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the model’s own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market → — the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week — the defensive injury cluster board.
How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means →
Live: every Week 5 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board →
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Week 5 primetime, live
Run Week 5 yourself
All tools →Rankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)
Week 5 players to watch
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Watch the Week 5 breakdown
NFL Week 5 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 5 2026?
Week 5 is in progress: 15 of 15 games are final and graded on this page, and the model makes no call on the 0 remaining games. The full record lives on the track record.
How are these NFL Week 5 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability — the fair value (books) once a game is priced — minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 5 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 15 Week 5 games, with its win probability (0 still to play; a game that has kicked off is listed as its pre-game call). Cowboys over Buccaneers (79%, pre-game); Jaguars over Eagles (76%, pre-game); Bengals over Dolphins (73%, pre-game); Patriots over Raiders (62%, pre-game); Vikings over Saints (59%, pre-game); Jets over Browns (59%, pre-game); Steelers over Colts (59%, pre-game); Texans over Titans (73%, pre-game); Commanders over Giants (62%, pre-game); Broncos over Chargers (62%, pre-game); Lions over Cardinals (69%, pre-game); Bears over Packers (55%, pre-game); Seahawks over 49ers (60%, pre-game); Falcons over Ravens (62%, pre-game); Rams over Bills (62%, pre-game). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
What are the NFL Week 5 picks straight up?
Week 5 picks straight up: Cowboys over Buccaneers (pre-game call), Jaguars over Eagles (pre-game call), Bengals over Dolphins (pre-game call), Patriots over Raiders (pre-game call), Vikings over Saints (pre-game call), Jets over Browns (pre-game call), Steelers over Colts (pre-game call), Texans over Titans (pre-game call), Commanders over Giants (pre-game call), Broncos over Chargers (pre-game call), Lions over Cardinals (pre-game call), Bears over Packers (pre-game call), Seahawks over 49ers (pre-game call), Falcons over Ravens (pre-game call), Rams over Bills (pre-game call). Each pick is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced) — the model's straight-up call, not a position. The play on each game is the side where that number and the Kalshi price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread, on its matchup page.
How often are the Week 5 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the model’s own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.