NFL Week 5 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated Β· market prices
Quick Answer
As of October 6, 2026, our Week 5 calls: the model sides with the market favorite in all 13 called games straight up. The model disagrees with the Kalshi price on 4 of 15 games; the widest gap is Jets at 57% to win versus Kalshi's 55Β’. 2 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed.
Next widest: Dolphins at 27% to win versus Kalshi's 25Β’; Steelers at 59% to win versus Kalshi's 57Β’.
Every game below carries the model's win probability, the Kalshi price, and the gap between them β plus the straight-up winner and a projected score.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles Β· DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 15 Week 5 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Buccaneers at Cowboys β Model winner: Cowboys (77%)
- Eagles at Jaguars β Model winner: Jaguars (72%)
- Bengals at Dolphins β Model winner: Bengals (73%) Β· The play: Dolphins β€ 25Β’
- Raiders at Patriots β Model winner: Patriots (62%)
- Vikings at Saints β Model winner: Vikings (55%)
- Browns at Jets β Model winner: Jets (57%) Β· The play: Jets β€ 55Β’
- Colts at Steelers β Model winner: Steelers (59%) Β· The play: Steelers β€ 57Β’
- Texans at Titans β Model winner: Texans (73%)
- Giants at Commanders β Model winner: Commanders (62%)
- Broncos at Chargers β Model winner: Broncos (62%)
- Lions at Cardinals β Model winner: Lions (65%) Β· The play: Cardinals β€ 33Β’
- Bears at Packers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- 49ers at Seahawks β Model winner: Seahawks (60%)
- Ravens at Falcons β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bills at Rams β Model winner: Rams (59%)
All 15 Week 5 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market β β the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week β the defensive injury cluster board.
This week's Oracle Forks
A starting quarterback isn't confirmed, so we publish both lines. They collapse to one when the team names its starter.
- Ravens at Falcons β Lamar Jackson unconfirmed βWith Lamar JacksonPick'emWithout Lamar JacksonFalcons by 4.5MarketRavens by 2.5
Live: every Week 5 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board β
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All tools βWeek 5 straight-up picks
Kalshi has priced 13 of these 15 games and our published probability is anchored to the market on each, so the straight-up pick matches the market favorite by construction β that agreement is the method, not a finding. Widest disagreement this week: our own line is Titans by 5.7 against the market's, a read we grade separately and never publish as an edge. 2 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so they carry no call yet.
- Cowboys over Buccaneers77%80.5Β’
- Jaguars over Eagles72%73.5Β’
- Bengals over Dolphins73%75.5Β’
- Patriots over Raiders62%63.5Β’
- Vikings over Saints55%56.5Β’
- Jets over Browns57%54.5Β’
- Steelers over Colts59%56.5Β’
- Texans over Titans73%74.5Β’
- Commanders over Giants62%62.5Β’
- Broncos over Chargers62%63Β’
- Lions over Cardinals65%68.5Β’
- Bears at Packers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedβ58Β’
- Seahawks over 49ers60%58.5Β’
- Ravens at Falcons Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedβ54.5Β’
- Rams over Bills59%59.5Β’
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored β it is the marketβs number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the modelβs own read. The modelβs separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge; the projected scores below are built from that same raw margin, so they can disagree with the percentage above. Kalshi = the mid price of the winnerβs contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play β the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
NFL Week 5 Score Predictions
- BuccaneersatCowboys20.6β29.149.7
- EaglesatJaguars18.4β24.943.4
- BengalsatDolphins27.2β20.247.5
- RaidersatPatriots19.4β22.942.3
- VikingsatSaints20.8β19.340.0
- BrownsatJets18.2β20.238.4
- ColtsatSteelers20.8β23.344.2
- TexansatTitans23.3β16.339.6
- GiantsatCommanders22.3β25.848.1
- BroncosatChargers22.5β19.041.5
- LionsatCardinals26.2β21.748.0
- BearsatPackersQB pending
- 49ersatSeahawks23.1β26.149.3
- RavensatFalconsQB pending
- BillsatRams23.5β26.049.4
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 42.58 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). β οΈ This margin is the modelβs OWN, not the market-anchored number the win probability above uses once a game is priced β so a 1-point projected margin can sit beside an 85% win probability, and neither is wrong. The gap between them is the lean. The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
BAL
+1.5
ATL
-1.3
TB
-1.2
DAL
+0.4
CHI
+2.3
GB
+0.7
What moved on Kalshi since yesterday
Change in the Kalshi contract price for that side to win, in cents of probability, between the two most recent daily captures (as of October 6, 2026). A move is a price change, not a call.
NFL Week 5 predictions β frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 5 2026?
Our DAEPA model disagrees with the Kalshi price by 5 points or more on 4 of 15 Week 5 games. The biggest gap is Browns at Jets, where the pick is the Jets at a 57% model win probability against a Kalshi price of 55Β’. Every game's pick, model line and edge is in the board above.
How are these NFL Week 5 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54Β’. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 5 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 15 Week 5 games, with its win probability. Cowboys over Buccaneers (77%); Jaguars over Eagles (72%); Bengals over Dolphins (73%); Patriots over Raiders (62%); Vikings over Saints (55%); Jets over Browns (57%); Steelers over Colts (59%); Texans over Titans (73%); Commanders over Giants (62%); Broncos over Chargers (62%); Lions over Cardinals (65%); Bears at Packers (QB pending); Seahawks over 49ers (60%); Ravens at Falcons (QB pending); Rams over Bills (59%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50Β’ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls β the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 5?
Projected scores, winner first: Cowboys 29.1, Buccaneers 20.6; Jaguars 24.9, Eagles 18.4; Bengals 27.2, Dolphins 20.2; Patriots 22.9, Raiders 19.4; Vikings 20.8, Saints 19.3; Jets 20.2, Browns 18.2; Steelers 23.3, Colts 20.8; Texans 23.3, Titans 16.3; Commanders 25.8, Giants 22.3; Broncos 22.5, Chargers 19.0; Lions 26.2, Cardinals 21.7; Bears at Packers: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Seahawks 26.1, 49ers 23.1; Ravens at Falcons: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Rams 26.0, Bills 23.5. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 42.58 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) β the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 5 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β trade responsibly.