NFL Week 5 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 5 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 15 games is the Patriots at 81% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 15 Week 5 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
- Buccaneers at Cowboys — Model winner: Cowboys (64%)
- Eagles at Jaguars — Model winner: Jaguars (61%)
- Bengals at Dolphins — Model winner: Dolphins (50%)
- Raiders at Patriots — Model winner: Patriots (81%)
- Vikings at Saints — Model winner: Saints (58%)
- Browns at Jets — Model winner: Jets (52%)
- Colts at Steelers — Model winner: Steelers (56%)
- Texans at Titans — Model winner: Texans (60%)
- Giants at Commanders — Model winner: Commanders (57%)
- Broncos at Chargers — Model winner: Chargers (53%)
- Lions at Cardinals — Model winner: Lions (62%)
- Bears at Packers — Model winner: Packers (63%)
- 49ers at Seahawks — Model winner: Seahawks (64%)
- Ravens at Falcons — Model winner: Falcons (53%)
- Bills at Rams — Model winner: Rams (61%)
All 15 Week 5 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Week 5 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 15 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Cowboys over Buccaneers64%—
- Jaguars over Eagles61%—
- Dolphins over Bengals50%—
- Patriots over Raiders81%—
- Saints over Vikings58%—
- Jets over Browns52%—
- Steelers over Colts56%—
- Texans over Titans60%—
- Commanders over Giants57%—
- Chargers over Broncos53%—
- Lions over Cardinals62%—
- Packers over Bears63%—
- Seahawks over 49ers64%—
- Falcons over Ravens53%—
- Rams over Bills61%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 5 projected scores
- BuccaneersatCowboys24.1–29.053.2
- EaglesatJaguars20.6–23.844.4
- BengalsatDolphins23.9–24.148.0
- RaidersatPatriots15.3–29.244.5
- VikingsatSaints19.1–21.841.0
- BrownsatJets18.3–18.837.2
- ColtsatSteelers22.3–24.446.7
- TexansatTitans20.9–17.938.8
- GiantsatCommanders24.2–26.650.8
- BroncosatChargers21.4–22.043.4
- LionsatCardinals25.3–21.446.8
- BearsatPackers23.4–27.550.9
- 49ersatSeahawks21.8–28.850.6
- RavensatFalcons22.7–23.546.3
- BillsatRams24.5–27.952.4
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 5 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 5 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 5 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 15 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 5 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 5 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 15 Week 5 games, with its win probability. Cowboys over Buccaneers (64%); Jaguars over Eagles (61%); Dolphins over Bengals (50%); Patriots over Raiders (81%); Saints over Vikings (58%); Jets over Browns (52%); Steelers over Colts (56%); Texans over Titans (60%); Commanders over Giants (57%); Chargers over Broncos (53%); Lions over Cardinals (62%); Packers over Bears (63%); Seahawks over 49ers (64%); Falcons over Ravens (53%); Rams over Bills (61%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 5?
Projected scores, winner first: Cowboys 29.0, Buccaneers 24.1; Jaguars 23.8, Eagles 20.6; Dolphins 24.1, Bengals 23.9; Patriots 29.2, Raiders 15.3; Saints 21.8, Vikings 19.1; Jets 18.8, Browns 18.3; Steelers 24.4, Colts 22.3; Texans 20.9, Titans 17.9; Commanders 26.6, Giants 24.2; Chargers 22.0, Broncos 21.4; Lions 25.3, Cardinals 21.4; Packers 27.5, Bears 23.4; Seahawks 28.8, 49ers 21.8; Falcons 23.5, Ravens 22.7; Rams 27.9, Bills 24.5. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 5 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.