Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, November 29, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Commanders

48%

model win prob

Cardinals

52%

model win prob

Model line

Cardinals −0.5

Kalshi (Cardinals)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Cardinals — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Washington Commanders-0.520thAverage

Arizona Cardinals-2.328thBelow Avg

The prediction-market read

In Week 12, the Washington Commanders travel to face the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Cardinals 28th of 32 (Below Avg tier, -2.3) and the Commanders 20th (Average tier, -0.5). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Cardinals by 0.5 — a 52% win probability for the Cardinals.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 52% (Cardinals) / 48% (Commanders) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Commanders vs Cardinals — frequently asked

Who is favored in Commanders vs Cardinals in Week 12?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Cardinals by 0.5 points and gives them a 52% win probability over the Commanders. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Commanders vs Cardinals?

Home win probability 52% (Cardinals), away 48% (Commanders). That comes from a power-rating differential of -1.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Cardinals rate 28th of 32 (Below Avg tier), the Commanders 20th (Average tier).

Can you trade Commanders vs Cardinals on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.