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2028 PRESIDENTLive · 5-min refresh140 tradeable contracts

2028 Presidential Prediction Markets

Real-money positioning across the 2028 race — Democratic nominee, Republican nominee, general-election winner, plus the Trump-term contracts (impeachment-by-deadline, leaves-office binaries, 25th Amendment). Side-by-side Kalshi + Polymarket prices so you can spot cross-platform spreads.

Updated May 7, 8:04 AM UTC

Who Wins the Presidency in 2028?

Top binary across both venues — compare prices to find spread alpha.

Each contract pays $1 if that candidate wins the November 2028 general election. The price is the market’s implied probability — a 22¢ contract is a 22% chance. Polymarket leads on liquidity ($400K-plus per day on the top markets); Kalshi mirrors the same race for US-regulated traders. When the two diverge by 3¢ or more on the same name, that’s a cross-platform spread worth investigating.

POLYMARKETTop 12 of 36 contenders

2028 General Election Winner — Polymarket

Top contenders by Polymarket implied probability. Lifetime $ traded shown on the right.

All markets →
  1. 1JD Vance20¢
  2. 2Gavin Newsom17¢
  3. 3Marco Rubio12¢
  4. 4Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez6¢
  5. 5Kamala Harris6¢
  6. 6Jon Ossoff4¢
  7. 7Josh Shapiro3¢
  8. 8Tucker Carlson3¢
  9. 9Donald Trump3¢
  10. 10Pete Buttigieg2¢
  11. 11Ron DeSantis2¢
  12. 12Andy Beshear2¢
KALSHITop 12 of 20 contenders

2028 General Election Winner — Kalshi

KXPRESPERSON-28 candidate ladder. CFTC-regulated; legal in all 50 states.

All markets →
  1. 1Marco Rubio20¢
  2. 2J.D. Vance18¢
  3. 3Gavin Newsom17¢
  4. 4Jon Ossoff6¢
  5. 5Kamala Harris5¢
  6. 6Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez5¢
  7. 7Donald J. Trump3¢
  8. 8Andy Beshear3¢
  9. 9Pete Buttigieg3¢
  10. 10Josh Shapiro3¢
  11. 11Tucker Carlson2¢
  12. 12Mark Kelly2¢

Nomination Markets

Conditional pay-out: wins primary only.

Nomination contracts pay $1 if that candidate wins the party primary — full stop, regardless of November. The implied conditional “wins general given nomination” is the general-election price divided by the nomination price. Big numbers there flag a candidate the market thinks would clean up if they got the ticket.

POLYMARKETTop 15 of 44 contenders

Democratic 2028 Nominee — Polymarket

Who wins the Democratic Party nomination? Newsom, Whitmer, AOC and the long-tail.

All markets →
  1. 1Gavin Newsom24¢
  2. 2Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez8¢
  3. 3Kamala Harris8¢
  4. 4Jon Ossoff7¢
  5. 5Pete Buttigieg5¢
  6. 6Josh Shapiro5¢
  7. 7Andy Beshear3¢
  8. 8Mark Kelly3¢
  9. 9Rahm Emanuel3¢
  10. 10James Talarico2¢
  11. 11Jon Stewart2¢
  12. 12J.B. Pritzker2¢
  13. 13Ro Khanna2¢
  14. 14Stephen A. Smith1¢
  15. 15Gretchen Whitmer1¢
POLYMARKETTop 15 of 35 contenders

Republican 2028 Nominee — Polymarket

Who wins the Republican Party nomination? Vance, DeSantis, Rubio and the rest.

All markets →
  1. 1J.D. Vance39¢
  2. 2Marco Rubio23¢
  3. 3Tucker Carlson6¢
  4. 4Donald Trump Jr.3¢
  5. 5Donald Trump2¢
  6. 6Glenn Youngkin2¢
  7. 7Ron DeSantis2¢
  8. 8Rand Paul1¢
  9. 9Tulsi Gabbard1¢
  10. 10Kim Kardashian1¢
  11. 11Matt Gaetz1¢
  12. 12Marjorie Taylor Greene1¢
  13. 13Nikki Haley1¢
  14. 14Vivek Ramaswamy1¢
  15. 15Eric Trump1¢

Does Trump Finish His Term?

2 markets live

Kalshi runs a ladder of impeachment-by-deadline binaries (KXIMPEACH-{YY}-{MMM01}) plus a single resignation binary (KXTRUMPRESIGN). Each one resolves YES if the trigger event happens before its deadline. Read the resolution criteria carefully — some impeachment contracts require Senate conviction, others trigger on a House vote alone. These markets stay quiet most of the year and spike around news cycles, which is exactly when the spreads get interesting.

How to Read These Markets

Price = ProbabilityA 22¢ Yes contract is a 22% implied chance. If the event hits, it pays $1 — a 4.5x return at that entry.
Cross-Platform SpreadsWhen Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 3¢ or more on the same name, that’s a real market signal — often arb-eligible if you trade both venues.
Lifetime > 24h VolumeThe 2028 cycle is far out. 24h flow is thin; lifetime volume + open interest is where conviction lives. Read the long memory, not the day’s noise.

2028 Presidential Markets — FAQ

Who is favored to win the 2028 US presidential election?

Polymarket is the most liquid market on the 2028 general election with $400K-plus per day in volume. Vance and Newsom typically lead the general-election ladder, with each priced in the high teens to low twenties. Kalshi runs a parallel KXPRESPERSON-28 contract that you can compare side-by-side. Treat the price as the market's implied probability — a 22¢ contract is a 22% chance of winning.

How do nomination odds differ from general election odds?

Nomination markets pay $1 if the candidate wins their party primary. General-election markets pay $1 only if they win the primary AND the general. The general-election number is always lower than the nomination number for the same candidate — you're clearing two hurdles instead of one. The implied conditional probability of winning the general given the nomination is general / nomination.

What are the odds Trump finishes his second term?

Kalshi runs a series of impeachment-by-deadline binaries (KXIMPEACH-26-*, KXIMPEACH-27-*, plus the term-end roll KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20) and a single resignation binary (KXTRUMPRESIGN — pays $1 if Trump resigns before his term ends). Each contract resolves on a clear trigger event by a specific date. Volume tends to spike around news cycles. Always read the contract's resolution criteria — some impeachment markets require Senate conviction, others trigger on a House vote alone.

Are 2028 election prediction markets legal in the US?

Yes — Kalshi is the only fully CFTC-regulated venue for US traders to take positions on 2028 presidential contracts. All 50 states have access. Polymarket prices are useful as a cross-platform reference but Polymarket itself remains restricted for US traders due to a CFTC settlement.

How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?

Both Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before. Polymarket had Trump at 61¢ on election eve while RealClearPolitics polling showed effectively a coin flip. The full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 audit linked from the politics hub.

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