2028 PRESIDENTLive · 5-min refresh74 tradeable contracts

2028 Presidential Prediction Markets

Real-money positioning across the 2028 race — Democratic nominee, Republican nominee, general-election winner, plus the Trump-term contracts (impeachment-by-deadline, leaves-office binaries, 25th Amendment). Side-by-side Kalshi + Polymarket prices so you can spot cross-platform spreads.

Updated Sep 23, 3:17 PM UTC

Who Wins the Presidency in 2028?

Top binary across both venues — compare prices to find spread alpha.

Each contract pays $1 if that candidate wins the November 2028 general election. The price is the market’s implied probability — a 22¢ contract is a 22% chance. Polymarket leads on liquidity ($400K-plus per day on the top markets); Kalshi mirrors the same race for US-regulated traders. When the two diverge by 3¢ or more on the same name, that’s a cross-platform spread worth investigating.

POLYMARKETTop 12 of 20 contenders

2028 General Election Winner — Polymarket

Top contenders by Polymarket implied probability. Lifetime $ traded shown on the right.

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KALSHITop 12 of 23 contenders

2028 General Election Winner — Kalshi

KXPRESPERSON-28 candidate ladder. CFTC-regulated; legal in all 50 states.

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Nomination Markets

Conditional pay-out: wins primary only.

Nomination contracts pay $1 if that candidate wins the party primary — full stop, regardless of November. The implied conditional “wins general given nomination” is the general-election price divided by the nomination price. Big numbers there flag a candidate the market thinks would clean up if they got the ticket.

POLYMARKETTop 15 of 17 contenders

Democratic 2028 Nominee — Polymarket

Who wins the Democratic Party nomination? Newsom, Whitmer, AOC and the long-tail.

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POLYMARKET

Republican 2028 Nominee — Polymarket

Who wins the Republican Party nomination? Vance, DeSantis, Rubio and the rest.

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Does Trump Finish His Term?

2 markets live

Kalshi runs a ladder of impeachment-by-deadline binaries (KXIMPEACH-{YY}-{MMM01}) plus a single resignation binary (KXTRUMPRESIGN). Each one resolves YES if the trigger event happens before its deadline. Read the resolution criteria carefully — some impeachment contracts require Senate conviction, others trigger on a House vote alone. These markets stay quiet most of the year and spike around news cycles, which is exactly when the spreads get interesting.

Impeach by

Will the President be impeached before ?

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Before Jan 1, 202866¢Before Mar 1, 202722¢Before Jan 1, 20273¢

3004k contracts traded · 1063k open

Trump Resigns

Will Trump resign before his term ends?

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Before his term ends24¢

437k contracts traded · 149k open

How to Read These Markets

Price = ProbabilityA 22¢ Yes contract is a 22% implied chance. If the event hits, it pays $1 — a 4.5x return at that entry.

Cross-Platform SpreadsWhen Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 3¢ or more on the same name, that’s a real market signal — often arb-eligible if you trade both venues.

Lifetime > 24h VolumeThe 2028 cycle is far out. 24h flow is thin; lifetime volume + open interest is where conviction lives. Read the long memory, not the day’s noise.

2028 Presidential Markets — FAQ

Who is favored to win the 2028 US presidential election?

Polymarket is the most liquid market on the 2028 general election with $400K-plus per day in volume. Vance and Newsom typically lead the general-election ladder, with each priced in the high teens to low twenties. Kalshi runs a parallel KXPRESPERSON-28 contract that you can compare side-by-side. Treat the price as the market's implied probability — a 22¢ contract is a 22% chance of winning.

How do nomination odds differ from general election odds?

Nomination markets pay $1 if the candidate wins their party primary. General-election markets pay $1 only if they win the primary AND the general. The general-election number is always lower than the nomination number for the same candidate — you're clearing two hurdles instead of one. The implied conditional probability of winning the general given the nomination is general / nomination.

What are the odds Trump finishes his second term?

Kalshi runs a series of impeachment-by-deadline binaries (KXIMPEACH-26-*, KXIMPEACH-27-*, plus the term-end roll KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20) and a single resignation binary (KXTRUMPRESIGN — pays $1 if Trump resigns before his term ends). Each contract resolves on a clear trigger event by a specific date. Volume tends to spike around news cycles. Always read the contract's resolution criteria — some impeachment markets require Senate conviction, others trigger on a House vote alone.

Are 2028 election prediction markets legal in the US?

Yes — Kalshi carries the deepest CFTC-regulated slate of 2028 presidential contracts for US traders, with access in all 50 states. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-designated venue, open to US traders since December 2025 with a narrower slate that varies by state. The Polymarket prices quoted as a cross-platform reference come from its international book, which is closed to US persons and is a different order book.

How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?

Both Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before. Polymarket had Trump at 61¢ on election eve while RealClearPolitics polling showed effectively a coin flip. The full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 audit linked from the politics hub.

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