Kalshi Commodity Markets: Gold, Silver, Oil and Bitcoin
Kalshi now lists the same metals, energy and crypto three ways: daily strike ladders, 15-minute up-or-down markets and perpetual futures. Here is every tool we publish for them, and a server that puts those tools inside your AI assistant.
Daily ladders
Where each daily strike sits against an independent model.
15-minute markets
One up-or-down contract per quarter hour β fair value against the fee band.
The Fed
The rate decision behind metals and oil, priced meeting by meeting on Kalshi.
Perps
Leverage with no expiry: funding, leverage caps and the liquidation price.
Put these in Claude or ChatGPT
The commodities MCP server gives an AI assistant the live numbers instead of a guess. Add it as a custom connector (Claude) or under connectors (ChatGPT); in Cursor or Copilot add it to your MCP settings with a streamable-HTTP transport. No key for the free tools.
Transcript
A trader asks their AI app: "Show me the 15-minute gold and Bitcoin boards." The PredictionMarketsPicks connector runs fifteen_min_board for each and returns whether a window is open, the YES bid and ask, the price to beat, what the contract settles on and the share of the last 96 windows that settled up. Gold trades weekdays until the Friday 5 PM ET close; Bitcoin runs 24/7. The follow-up, "What's Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual doing?", runs perps_board and returns the perp price, 24-hour volume, open interest, maximum leverage long and short, and what funding has cost longs since launch. Perps carry leverage and can lose the whole margin quickly. One URL, no API key. Works in Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini and Cursor.
claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks-commodities https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=site-commodities
Registry name com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities. Want everything we publish, sports and politics included? Use the full server at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-commodities β setup for every client.
What your agent can call
Kalshi's 15-minute gold, silver, oil, natural gas, copper and crypto markets live β the open window, the YES price, what settles it, and how the last 96 windows settled. Free.
Every Kalshi perp on gold, silver, platinum, palladium and crypto β price, leverage, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Free.
Where a leveraged gold, silver or bitcoin perp position liquidates β an estimate from Kalshi's published risk parameters β with fees and funding over the hold. Free.
The model ticket on the daily gold, silver and WTI ladders (and hourly bitcoin): side, price, edge, tier and ΒΌ-Kelly. Pro; a keyless call returns the free teaser.
The US macro regime behind metals and oil: a 0β100 composite with rates, inflation and growth scores. The composite is free.
Kalshi odds of a Fed cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, the rate decision that moves metals and oil. Free.
Test a Kalshi price against the historical base rate for the same kind of outcome. Free.
Turn a Kalshi commodity contract price into an implied probability (and back).
Expected value on a gold, silver or oil contract from its price and your probability, fees included.
Size the position once the edge is real β full / half / quarter / eighth Kelly against your bankroll.
The bookHedge Your StackChapter 8 walks through this server: ask an AI assistant for todayβs gold and silver numbers instead of reading them off a page.Kindle, $2.99 Β· with a live companion page βKalshi commodity markets β frequently asked
What commodity markets does Kalshi list?
Three kinds, on the same assets. Daily strike ladders ask where gold, silver or WTI oil closes (gold and silver on a 1-minute candle close at 5 PM ET, oil on the front-month futures settlement). 15-minute markets ask whether the price is up over each quarter hour, on gold, silver, oil, natural gas, copper, platinum and palladium. And perpetual futures give leveraged exposure to gold, silver, platinum and palladium with no expiry.
Which PredictionMarketsPicks tools cover Kalshi commodities?
Gold Edge, Silver Edge and Oil Edge compare each daily strike with an independent model; Bitcoin Edge does the same for the hourly bitcoin ladder. Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Edge 15-Min show the fair value of the open 15-minute window. The perps board and calculator show funding, leverage and where a position liquidates.
Is there an MCP server for commodity prediction markets?
Yes. Connect com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=site-commodities (Streamable HTTP) and your agent gets 10 tools: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge, market_pulse, fed_rate_odds, base_rate_gap, convert_probability, calculate_ev, kelly_size. No API key is needed for the free tools. The full server at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-commodities carries the same tools alongside everything else we publish.
What does a keyless caller get on the commodities server?
Real answers everywhere, never a hard refusal. The 15-minute board, the perps board, the liquidation estimate, the Fed odds, the base-rate check and the three calculators are free and uncapped. market_pulse returns the macro composite free with part of the detail. commodity_edge is Pro: a keyless call returns a free teaser (whether a ticket is live, its edge and tier) and a one-line offer.
Are the liquidation prices exact?
No. They are estimates from Kalshi's published risk parameters, calibrated against the liquidation prices Kalshi's own app showed on Sept. 26, 2026 so they err toward liquidating sooner, before slippage. Kalshi's app shows the exact liquidation price once a position is open. Perps carry leverage and can lose the whole margin quickly.
Prices are Kalshiβs public market data; edges are model-versus-market disagreements, not guarantees. Perps carry leverage and can lose the whole margin quickly. PredictionMarketsPicks is independent of Kalshi. Trade responsibly.
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