Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Quick Answer
As of September 7, 2026, Kalshi implies 65% for the Bengals in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals, NFL Week 1 2026, while our model has the Bengals by 2.5 (57% to win) — a 7.0pp gap. Value side: the Buccaneers.
Kickoff board
Week 1 · 2026-09-071 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 7.0pp on Buccaneers moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
TB
-0.6
CIN
-0.6
Buccaneers
43%
model win prob
Bengals
57%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
42%
Madden 27
58%
Madden 27
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Power-rating comparison
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Buccaneers vs Bengals: where the prop prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 4+ rec | 51.5¢ | 49% | +2.6¢ | over · ProphetX 51.7¢under · DK 51.7¢ |
| Bucky Irving | 3+ rec | 37.0¢ | 38% | -1.4¢ | over · DK 40.2¢under · Novig 65¢ |
| Baker Mayfield | 2+ pass TDs | 49.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Baker Mayfield | 3+ pass TDs | 20.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Baker Mayfield | 4+ pass TDs | 7.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Baker Mayfield | 250+ pass yds | 34.0¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 42.7¢ |
| Baker Mayfield | 275+ pass yds | 24.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Baker Mayfield | 300+ pass yds | 15.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 19¢ |
See all 35 priced prop strikes for this game on the board →+ 49 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Reading the Week 1 line on Buccaneers–Bengals
Week 1 is the widest-error week of the season for every model, ours included — nothing about 2026 is on tape yet, and the ratings are priors, not measurements. With that stated plainly: the Bengals rate -0.6 (21st), the Buccaneers -0.6 (18th), and the model opens on the Bengals by 2.5, 57% to win. Every number on this page will move more between now and kickoff than it will in any week that follows.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.6 projected wins for the Bengals against 8.3 for the Buccaneers, favored in 8 and 7 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Bengals' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Buccaneers'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Buccaneers offense grades +0.4 (18th of 32) against a Bengals defense at -2.1 (25th) — 2.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bengals offense (+0.7, 15th) meets the Buccaneers defense (-1.1, 20th), a 1.8-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Bengals grade +0.8, 5th in the league, against +0.2 (26th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Bengals won 34-23 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Bengals are 3-1. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Bengals at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13TBCIN contract implies 65% for the Bengals against our 57% — a 7.0-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Buccaneers as the value side at 35c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Buccaneers vs Bengals on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP13TBCIN
- Market-implied (Bengals)
- 65c · 65%
- Our model (Bengals)
- 57%
- Model vs market
- -7.0pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP13TBCIN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 65c on the Bengals is an implied 65% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 57%, a 7.0pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Buccaneers vs Bengals trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bengals | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 65% 65c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 65% 65c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 65% 65c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 65% 65c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Buccaneers vs Bengals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Buccaneers vs Bengals in Week 1?
Our power-rating model favors the Bengals by 2.5 points, a 57% win probability over the Buccaneers. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13TBCIN market implies 65% for the Bengals — a 7.0pp gap versus the model.
How reliable is a Week 1 model line?
Less reliable than any other week, and we would rather say so. The -0.6 / -0.6 ratings behind the 2.5-point line are preseason priors built from prior-season performance and roster change — no 2026 snaps are in them. Week 1 is the point of maximum uncertainty for the model and for the market, which is also why prices move most in it.
How do you take a position on Buccaneers vs Bengals?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13TBCIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Bengals YES is quoted around 65c against our 57% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bengals host the Buccaneers?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH.
What does the model project for the Bengals and Buccaneers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bengals at 8.6 wins (favored in 8) and the Buccaneers at 8.3 (favored in 7). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Bengals' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Buccaneers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Buccaneers vs Bengals?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13TBCIN. The Bengals YES contract sits around 65c, which is an implied 65% — against our model's 57%. That is a 7.0pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Buccaneers vs Bengals on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 1 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13TBCIN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Bengals?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Bengals at 57% over the Buccaneers sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Buccaneers moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 43% against a market price implying 36%, an edge of +7.0 points. Model 43% vs market 36% on TB. We rate it lean, sized at 2.7% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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