Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH

Buccaneers

42%

model win prob

Bengals

58%

model win prob

Model line

Bengals −3

Kalshi (Bengals)

65%

Edge

-6.3pp

Edge: the market underprices the Buccaneers

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-0.417thAverage

Cincinnati Bengals-0.115thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 1, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bengals 15th of 32 (Average tier, -0.1) and the Buccaneers 17th (Average tier, -0.4). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bengals by 3 — a 58% win probability for the Bengals.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME contract currently implies 65% for the Bengals. That's a 6.3-point gap against our 58% model number — enough to flag the Buccaneers as the value side.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Buccaneers vs Bengals — frequently asked

Who is favored in Buccaneers vs Bengals in Week 1?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bengals by 3 points and gives them a 58% win probability over the Buccaneers. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME market currently implies 65% for the Bengals — a 6.3pp gap vs our model.

What does the model project for Buccaneers vs Bengals?

Home win probability 58% (Bengals), away 42% (Buccaneers). That comes from a power-rating differential of +0.3 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bengals rate 15th of 32 (Average tier), the Buccaneers 17th (Average tier).

Can you trade Buccaneers vs Bengals on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.