Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams
Updated · market price
Monday, October 12, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of October 6, 2026, Kalshi implies 60% for the Rams in Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams, NFL Week 5 2026, while the market line has the Rams by 2.5 (59% to win; score prediction Rams 26, Bills 23) — a 0.7pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Rams by 3.2 against a market line of Rams by 2.5 — a 0.7-point lean toward the Rams, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 5 · 2026-10-06No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
BUF
+3.2
LAR
+3.5
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 5 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Bills
41%
model win prob
Rams
59%
model win prob
Market-anchored fair value: BUF 41% (+0.8pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
40%
Madden 27
60%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Bills at Rams
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi prices Rams −2.5 at 54¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- −20.5Rams——
- −17.5Rams——
- −16.5Rams——
- −14.5Rams—outside band
- −13.5Rams—outside band
- −10.5Rams—outside band
- −9.5Rams—outside band
- −7.5Rams—outside band
- −6.5Rams——
- −5.5Rams——
- −4.5Rams——
- −3.5Rams——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects by 2.9
- −2.5Rams——
- −1.5Rams——
- +1.5Rams——
- +2.5Rams——
- +3.5Rams——
- +4.5Rams—outside band
- +5.5Rams—outside band
- +6.5Rams—outside band
- +7.5Rams—outside band
- +9.5Rams—outside band
- +10.5Rams—outside band
- +13.5Rams—outside band
- +14.5Rams—outside band
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Bills vs Rams power ratings (Week 5)
Bills and Rams season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Monday night's number, and what would make it a position
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams kicks off on Monday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Rams at +3.5 (2nd of 32, Playoff tier) against the Bills at +3.2 (4th, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Rams by 3 and 59% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +2.8 (4th of 32) against a Bills defense at -1.0 (20th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bills offense (+3.8, 2nd) meets the Rams defense (+0.6, 5th), a 3.1-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +2.8 (4th of 32) against a Bills defense at -1.0 (20th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bills offense (+3.8, 2nd) meets the Rams defense (+0.6, 5th), a 3.1-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.0 projected wins for the Rams against 9.9 for the Bills, favored in 14 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 9th-hardest on the Rams' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Bills'. Nothing on the Bills' schedule projects harder than this one.
One team has owned this series: the Bills are 5-2 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Rams won 44-42 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Rams are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Rams at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT12BUFLAR contract implies 60% for the Rams against our 59% — a 0.7-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Rams on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT12BUFLAR
- Market-implied (Rams)
- 60c · 60%
- Our model (Rams)
- 59%
- Model vs market
- -0.7pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT12BUFLAR. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 60c on the Rams is an implied 60% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 59%, a 0.7pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Bills vs Rams trades
4 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Rams | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 60% 60c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 59% 59c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarketinternational book | 60% 60c | Open Polymarket → |
| Polymarket USUS exchange — separate book | 59% 59c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 60% 60c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 60% 60c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Bills vs Rams — frequently asked
Who will win Rams vs Bills?
The market line has the Rams at 59% to beat the Bills in Week 5, with a score prediction of Rams 26, Bills 23.
Who is favored in Bills vs Rams in Week 5?
The market line has the Rams by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Bills (our model's own line: Rams by 3), for a projected score of Rams 26, Bills 23 on a ratings-implied 49.4-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT12BUFLAR market implies 60% for the Rams — a 0.7pp agreement with the market line.
What is the biggest mismatch in Bills vs Rams?
Rams offense (+2.8, 4th of 32) against Bills defense (-1.0, 20th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Rams?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26OCT12BUFLAR on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Rams YES is quoted around 60c against our 59% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Rams host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the Los Angeles Rams on Monday, October 12, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 5, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Rams and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Rams at 10.0 wins (favored in 14) and the Bills at 9.9 (favored in 13). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Rams' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bills vs Rams?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26OCT12BUFLAR. The Rams YES contract sits around 60c, which is an implied 60% — against our model's 59%. That is a 0.7pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Bills vs Rams on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT12BUFLAR. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Rams?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Rams at 59% over the Bills sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Bills moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 41% against a market price implying 41%, an edge of +0.8 points. Model 41% vs market 41% on BUF. We pass — no position.
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