Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams

Monday, October 12, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Bills

42%

model win prob

Rams

58%

model win prob

Model line

Rams −3

Kalshi (Rams)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Rams — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Buffalo Bills+2.54thPlayoff

Los Angeles Rams+2.92ndPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 5, the Buffalo Bills travel to face the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Rams 2nd of 32 (Playoff tier, +2.9) and the Bills 4th (Playoff tier, +2.5). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Rams by 3 — a 58% win probability for the Rams.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 58% (Rams) / 42% (Bills) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bills vs Rams — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bills vs Rams in Week 5?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Rams by 3 points and gives them a 58% win probability over the Bills. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bills vs Rams?

Home win probability 58% (Rams), away 42% (Bills). That comes from a power-rating differential of +0.4 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Rams rate 2nd of 32 (Playoff tier), the Bills 4th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Bills vs Rams on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.