Steelers vs Bengals Prediction β Week 10, Sun Nov 15
Updated Β· model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 Β· Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
- Week 8, before the bye: Steelers play Sun 1:00 PM ET vs Browns β preview
- Last week: Bengals play Sun 9:30 AM ET vs Falcons β preview
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Bengals by 4.5 in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals, NFL Week 10 2026 β 62% to win, and the second AFC North meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15PITCIN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bengals at 57c or below (or Steelers at 33c or below) is where the model would take a position.
PIT
-0.1
CIN
+1.9
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Steelers
38%
our model
Bengals
62%
our model
Run this matchup yourself β Full PWR board for all 32 β Player prop gaps for this game β Whose number this is β
44%
Madden 27
56%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15PITCIN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bengals at 57c or below, or the Steelers at 33c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
The Ladder β Steelers at Bengals How to read the Ladder β
All ladders βOur margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Steelers vs Bengals power ratings (Week 10) What PWR measures β
Steelers and Bengals season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings β real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works β
Steelers vs Bengals β player pages
All players βOne page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Steelers and Bengals already played in Week 3, and now the Steelers make the return trip in Week 10. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.9 against -0.1, plus home field, equals the Bengals by 4.5 (62%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings β a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bengals offense grades +2.2 (7th of 32) against a Steelers defense at -0.4 (14th) β 2.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Steelers offense (-0.2, 19th) meets the Bengals defense (-1.0, 15th), a 0.8-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next β so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 3, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC North race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.6 projected wins for the Bengals against 9.9 for the Steelers, favored in 14 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Bengals' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Steelers'.
One team has owned this series: the Steelers are 34-14 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Steelers won 34-12 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bengals are 2-2. Worth saying plainly β the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 62% on the Bengals here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15PITCIN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Bengals 62%, Steelers 38%. Applying our 5 points floor, that makes Bengals contracts a buy at 57c or below and Steelers contracts a buy at 33c or below β anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks β you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Steelers vs Bengals on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15PITCIN
- Market-implied (Bengals)
- not listed yet
- Our ratings line (Bengals)
- 62%
- Model vs market
- β
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15PITCIN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Bengals at 57c or below, or the Steelers at 33c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Steelers vs Bengals line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Bengals β3.5 (DraftKings). The median across 2 books now is the Bengals β4.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Bengals β3.5 Β· O/U 47.5Sep 13 | Bengals β3.5 Β· O/U 47.5 | |
| Caesars | Bengals β4.5 Β· O/U 46Sep 13 | Bengals β4.5 Β· O/U 46 |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. βEarliest line we archivedβ is our first capture, which is not necessarily the marketβs open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchangeβs own moneyline contract.
Where Steelers vs Bengals trades Why the venues differ β
Each venueβs own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bengals | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet β opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi β |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig β $50 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer β |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game β US exchange | Sign-up offer β |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood β |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase β |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
A price under a venue name is that venueβs own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Watch the breakdown: Steelers vs Bengals
Steelers vs Bengals β frequently asked
Who will win Bengals vs Steelers?
Our model has the Bengals at 62% to beat the Steelers in Week 10.
Who is favored in Steelers vs Bengals in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Bengals by 4.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Steelers. The Bengals rate 8th of 32 (+1.9) and the Steelers 17th (-0.1); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15PITCIN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 3. Our model does not adjust for any of that β it prices the Bengals by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Steelers vs Bengals?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15PITCIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bengals at 57c or below, or the Steelers at 33c or below. There is no point spread β you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bengals host the Steelers?
Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, November 15, 2026 β a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH.
What does the model project for the Bengals and Steelers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bengals at 10.6 wins (favored in 14) and the Steelers at 9.9 (favored in 10). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Bengals' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Steelers', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Steelers vs Bengals?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15PITCIN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game β anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Bengals at 57c or below or the Steelers at 33c or below, off a 4.5-point line.
Can you trade Steelers vs Bengals on Kalshi?
Yes β as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15PITCIN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Bengals?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 β trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input β the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Bengals at 62% over the Steelers sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Steelers vs Bengals ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 3. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. SteelersβBengals, Week 3 β
After this one
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See the in-season NFL tools βPrediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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