Green Bay Packers: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of · prices live
The prediction-market read on the Packers: our 10,000-season simulation projects 9.9 wins in 2026 (10th of 32, Playoff tier; model 9.9), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and NFC North standing below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Entering Week 7: experts 14 · market-implied 16 · PMP 10. Experts vs. market on the Packers →
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Green Bay Packers
± 1.6 · 10th of 32
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — LOW on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 9.9. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
📊 Deep-dive: Packers win total: the only model-above-market read in the division, and it still says wait
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The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
Our sim and the Madden simulation land on opposite sides of the 9.54 market line. They disagree with each other, so this is a market to watch rather than one to build a position in.
Madden is a bit lower on the Packers than our model, 6 places apart — a real but modest difference of opinion.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
of clearing 9.54
+8.7pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 9.94 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 9.91 ± 1.62). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The Ladder — Packers
All ladders →The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Kalshi prices 10+ wins at 52¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 16+winsthin—outside band
- 15+winsthin—outside band
- 14+wins—outside band
- 13+wins—outside band
- 12+wins—outside band
- 11+wins——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 10–11
- 10+wins——
- 9+wins—outside band
- 8+wins—outside band
- 7+wins—outside band
- 6+winsthin—outside band
- 5+winsthin—outside band
- 4+winsthin—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 5+ rec at 51¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 6+rec——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 4–5
- 5+rec50¢—
- 4+rec——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 5+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 51¢, the books imply 50¢ — 0.5 points above the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 43¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 1–2
- 2+rec43¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 2+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 44¢, the books imply 43¢ — 0.3 points above the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins over 9.54
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 9.94 (model 9.91), the Madden 27 simulation 8.66, against 9.54 market-implied wins — a +0.40-win gap. LOW on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Week 7 at Lions
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 46%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall +1.8 ranks 8th of 32 (Playoff tier). How Packers rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 4-2 already banked sum to the model's 9.9 wins; the 9.9-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
Packers player props vs the Kalshi line
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre StrongRB | 10+ rush ydsover 9.5 | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
| MarShawn LloydRB | 15+ rush ydsover 14.5 | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
All 29 player-prop edges for Week 7 →Locked numbers are Pro.
Packers props: where the market prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this slice is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker KraftGB v DET | 50+ rec yds | 52.5¢ | 50.2%5bk | +2.3¢ | over · FD 53.3¢under · Novig 49.5¢ |
| Tucker KraftGB v DET | 5+ rec | 50.5¢ | 50.0%7bk | +0.5¢ | over · ProphetX 49.8¢under · ESPN Bet 51.2¢ |
| Pierre StrongGB v DET | 2+ rec | 43.0¢ | 42.7%4bk | +0.3¢ | over · ProphetX 41.7¢under · DK 56.5¢ |
| Jordan LoveGB v DET | 275+ pass yds | 56.0¢ | 55.9%exch | +0.1¢ | over · Kalshi 58.7¢under · Kalshi 46.7¢ |
| Bo MeltonGB v DET | anytime TD | 7.0¢ | — | one-sided | over · BetRivers 6.3¢under · Kalshi 94.4¢ |
| Christian WatsonGB v DET | anytime TD | 42.5¢ | — | one-sided | over · Novig 42.9¢under · Kalshi 59.7¢ |
| Christian WatsonGB v DET | 2+ TDs | 9.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only |
| Christian WatsonGB v DET | 50+ rec yds | 74.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 76.3¢under · Kalshi 28.4¢ |
See all 66 priced prop strikes on the board →+ 69 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Packers player pages
All players →MarShawn Lloyd
RB — Rush Yds
Tucker Kraft
TE
Jordan Love
QB
Josh Jacobs
RB
Christian Watson
WR
Matthew Golden
WR
Pierre Strong Jr.
Bo Melton
GB Packers D/ST
Jonnu Smith
Josh Whyle
Mark Redman
Savion Williams
Brenden Rice
Bronson Kaufusi
Chris Brooks
Damien Martinez
Drake Dabney
Isaiah Neyor
Jayden Reed
Kerrith Whyte
Kyle McCord
Luke Lachey
Luke Musgrave
Pierre Strong
Skyy Moore
Tyrod Taylor
One page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
NFC North ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.
Vikings
10.9
+0.1
Bears
10.9
+3.4
Packers
9.9
+1.8
Lions
9.3
+0.9
Model has the Packers 3rd in the NFC North. Division hub →
Division odds: Packers 14¢ to win the NFC North on Kalshi.
10,000-season simulation
How it works →Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
9.9
10,000 seasons · 59% reach 10+
Make playoffs
63%
5% win 6 or fewer
Win division
19%
5% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
4.5%
9th of 32 · 9% reach it
The Packers draw a 0.510 opponent win rate — the 11th-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board →A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
14
81.3 composite · QB 86
Simulated wins
8.7
39% reach 10+
Playoffs
41%
17% win division
Super Bowl
2.3%
SoS 0.508 (9th hardest)
Madden is a bit lower on the Packers than our model, 6 places apart — a real but modest difference of opinion.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
Watch: the Packers' Week 1 opener in Minnesota — our model at 60% against a Kalshi price near 49%, and the gap behind the 11-point edge.
What the clip covers
- The model made Green Bay a 60% favorite on the road in Minneapolis; Kalshi was pricing the Packers near 49% when the clip published on July 29, 2026 — a gap of roughly 11 points.
- The gap is the position, not the side. A market favorite is only worth holding when the model number sits meaningfully above the traded price — picking the winner and finding an edge are two different jobs.
- Week 1 lines price off how last season ended, which is where our power ratings and the market diverge most — openers are the widest part of the season for model-vs-market disagreement.
- The clip quotes a July 29 snapshot. The win-total and schedule modules on this page recompute against live Kalshi, so treat the 11-point number as where the read started, not where it stands today.
Packers 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Green Bay Packers win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 9.5 wins for the Packers in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 9.9 wins — a 0.4-win agreement with the market (LOW on our wins ladder).
Where do the Packers rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Packers sit at a +1.8-point power rating — 8th of 32 — in the Playoff tier. That rating (offense +1.7, defense -0.1, special teams +0.2) is the input behind every Packers prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Green Bay Packers games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Packers season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Packers in for 2026?
The Packers play in the NFC North, alongside Bears, Lions, Vikings. Our model has them projected 3rd in the NFC North on 9.9 expected wins.
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Every NFL team
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More Packers markets
- NFL Week 7 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
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- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
This team in the first-quarter report
Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report →