Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles

Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 12 Philadelphia home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 38°F with 8 mph of wind, and 50% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 19°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +2.5 for the Eagles, -0.1 for the Colts, and lands on the Eagles by 5 (65%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.5 (17th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.7 (23rd) — 2.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (+0.9, 14th) meets the Eagles defense (+1.8, 5th), a 0.8-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Colts +0.6 (9th of 32) to +0.2 (24th).

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Eagles at 9.7 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Colts at 8.6 (favored in 10) — 1.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Eagles' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Colts'.

One team has owned this series: the Eagles are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Eagles won 17-16 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Eagles are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 65% on the Eagles here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13INDPHI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Eagles 65%, Colts 35%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Eagles contracts a buy at 60c or below and Colts contracts a buy at 30c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.