Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 4, 2026): Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 3 (60% to win); the 49ers won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the 49ers at 61c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 3 (60% to win). The 49ers won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the 49ers: +2c — we archived the 49ers at 59c on Sep 28; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 61c on Oct 4. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
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No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
San Francisco scored three points on its first seven possessions. Marvin Mims Jr. then fumbled a punt, the 49ers scored from 28 yards out, and Brock Purdy led touchdown drives on three straight possessions. Denver lost both starting cornerbacks, Patrick Surtain II among them, during the game. Bo Nix got it to 17-14 with a touchdown and two-point conversion with 4:05 left. George Kittle then took a screen 56 yards with 2:15 left. Purdy took no sacks and committed no turnovers. San Francisco closed as a three-point favorite and won by ten.
Broncos 14—49ers 24
Final✓ Call hitAll three claims pointed at the 49ers, and all three held. The chip grades our stored probability, which had San Francisco at 60.5%, the market’s number anchored at weight zero to a three-point line. The 49ers won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was 49ers by 3.4, less than half a point from the market, tier NONE. The ledger held a MODERATE moneyline on San Francisco at 57.5¢. It closed at 60.5¢, a CLV of plus 3¢, and the ledger graded it a win on 2026-10-06. An earlier ledger row on Denver was voided on 2026-09-28, before kickoff, when the anchored line crossed zero; it is not a grade. The player board carried no PLAY row on this game. Eight WATCH rows that count went 5-3, graded apart from the record. The wins: Nix under 2.5 touchdown passes and under 24.5 and 29.5 rushing yards, and Deebo Samuel over 2.5 and 3.5 catches. The losses: Courtland Sutton over 3.5 catches (he had one), Adam Trautman over 0.5 (none) and Pat Bryant under 2.5 (three). Troy Franklin’s catch row is ungraded because he does not appear in ESPN’s box score. One suppressed row won and counts in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 2 to 48.5; the game landed on 38.
Q2
Denver used a 13-play, 7:48 drive for Wil Lutz’s 52-yarder. San Francisco went for it on fourth down on its next possession and turned it over, and its first points came on Eddy Pineiro’s 24-yarder with 1:36 left in the half. A second Pineiro try at the end of the half was blocked.
Q3
The 49ers took over at the Denver 28 after Mims’ fumble and scored in nine plays, Purdy throwing one yard to Samuel for 10-3 with 4:15 left in the third. Lutz kicked a 40-yarder on fourth-and-2 early in the fourth to make it 10-6, and Purdy answered with a 74-yard drive that Christian McCaffrey finished from the 1.
Q4
Nix drove Denver 70 yards and hit Jaylen Waddle from 13, and Tyler Badie ran in the two-point try for 17-14 with 4:05 left. On the fifth play of San Francisco’s next drive Kittle caught a screen behind the line and outran Talanoa Hufanga 56 yards to the end zone with 2:15 left. Denver’s last drive ended in a missed field goal.
Reporting verified 2026-10-09. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Brock Purdy throws 2 TD passes to lead the undefeated 49ers past the Broncos 24-14 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
San Francisco is 3-0 and leads the league at 7.35 yards a play with a quarterback who has not been sacked all season; Denver is 2-1 with a defense that averages nearly nine quarterback hits a game. That is the whole game, and it is being played in a heat advisory — a forecast high near 94°F at Levi’s Stadium, on pace to be one of the hottest games the Broncos have ever played. The 49ers are without Nick Bosa and two more defensive linemen, which is why Denver’s offense — ten first-half points all season, fifty after halftime — has a chance it has not earned yet.
Injury and practice participation
San Francisco ruled out Nick Bosa (knee/calf), James Thompson Jr. and Mykel Williams — Williams stays on the physically-unable list until Week 5 — and listed receiver Mike Evans (ribs), linebacker Dre Greenlaw, defensive lineman Keion White and linebacker Jaden Dugger as questionable; Shanahan called Evans a game-time decision. Trent Williams practised in full Friday after a stinger. The receiver room behind Deebo Samuel is thin enough that Brandin Cooks was signed off the practice squad on Thursday. Denver ruled out only outside linebacker Dondrea Tillman; Zach Allen, J.K. Dobbins, Marvin Mims and Jaylen Waddle all practised in full, and Jonathon Cooper remains on the exempt list.
Source: 49ers.com — Three players ruled out vs. Broncos, Mike Evans questionable (2026-10-02)
Broncos pressure · 49ers protection
Purdy has been sacked zero times through three games, the first quarterback to say that since the 2023 Packers, and the offense around him converts third downs at the best rate in the league and has scored touchdowns on nine of ten red-zone trips. Denver brings 2.7 sacks and 8.9 quarterback hits a game, with Allen leading at three sacks — but without Tillman and Cooper the rotation opposite Nik Bonitto is unsettled, and the pass rush will be doing it in heat the league is treating as a safety matter. Trent Williams playing after the stinger is the single most important body on the field for this unit; if the 49ers’ left side holds, Purdy’s 133 passer rating has nowhere to go but up.
Source: Denver Sports — Broncos’ pass rush vs. a 49ers line that has not allowed a sack (2026-10-01)
Broncos offense · 49ers front
Denver has scored ten points in first halves this season and fifty after the break, and Sean Payton said out loud that his team has not run the ball in the first half of any game; Dobbins averages 3.5 a carry with no touchdowns and RJ Harvey has five carries. Against a front without Bosa, Williams, Thompson and Alfred Collins, that is the week to change it — San Francisco’s defense sits 15th in EPA per play and has managed two sacks against Arizona and four against Miami with a rotation that is now Okoronkwo, Romello Height playing through a hand injury, and Keion White if he goes. Nix has 605 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions; his receiving options narrow to Waddle, who had 138 yards in Week 2 and twelve in the other two games combined, and Evan Engram, who was shut out against the Rams.
Reporting verified 2026-10-03. Further sources: 49ers.com — Three players ruled out vs. Broncos, Mike Evans questionable (2026-10-02) · denverbroncos.com — Injury report: OLB Dondrea Tillman lone player ruled out (2026-10-02) · denverbroncos.com — Game preview, Week 4 at the 49ers (2026-10-02) · Denver Sports — Broncos’ pass rush vs. a 49ers line that has not allowed a sack (2026-10-01) · Denver Sports — Sean Payton prepares for the heat in Santa Clara (2026-10-02) · National Weather Service — Santa Clara forecast, heat advisory (read 2026-10-01) · Heavy — J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey and Sean Payton’s first-half run game (2026-09-30) · Yahoo Sports — Six truths about the Broncos heading into Week 4 (2026-09-30) · SI — Five matchups that decide the 49ers’ Week 4 game against the Broncos (2026-10-01) · NBC Sports — 49ers sign WR Brandin Cooks to the active roster (2026-10-01) · NBC Sports Bay Area — Kittle on the heat at Levi’s Stadium: “no excuse” (2026-10-01) · Covers — Broncos vs. 49ers Week 4 early leans (2026-09-28)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
DEN
+1.8
SF
+2.7
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Broncos
40%
fair value (books)
49ers
60%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
33%
Madden 27
67%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 — the graded call is above.
The Broncos travel to face the 49ers in Week 4. Our power ratings put the 49ers 6th of 32 at +2.7 (Playoff tier) and the Broncos 9th at +1.8 (Playoff tier) — a 0.9-point gap that home field widens to a 3.5-point line on the 49ers, 59% to win. It rates as the 7th-widest of the 16 games in Week 4.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +3.8 (2nd of 32) against a Broncos defense at +1.2 (5th) — 2.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.4, 17th) meets the 49ers defense (-1.7, 21st), a 2.1-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 11.9 projected wins for the 49ers against 10.9 for the Broncos, favored in 14 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 11th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Broncos'.
On the calendar, the Broncos are on 7 days and the 49ers are on 7 days. The 49ers are 3 games into a home stand. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2022: Broncos won 11-10 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The 49ers at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 60% for the 49ers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | 49ers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 59% 59c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 — final, played Sunday, October 4, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 3 (60% to win), and the 49ers won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the 49ers by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Broncos. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
49ers offense (+3.8, 2nd of 32) against Broncos defense (+1.2, 5th) — 2.7 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the 49ers at 58c or below, or the Broncos at 38c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Denver Broncos visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the 49ers at 11.9 wins (favored in 14) and the Broncos at 10.9 (favored in 13). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Broncos', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The 49ers at 59% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 40% against a market price implying 39%, an edge of +0.5 points. Model 40% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 39% on DEN — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Steelers at BrownsModel: Browns −2
Colts at CommandersModel: Colts −5
Titans at RavensModel: Ravens −7.5
Patriots at BillsModel: Bills −2.5
Jets at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Jaguars at BengalsModel: Jaguars −0.5
Cowboys at TexansModel: Texans −2.5
Cardinals at GiantsModel: Cardinals −0.5
Rams at EaglesModel: Rams −0.5
Packers at BuccaneersModel: Packers −3.5
Dolphins at VikingsModel: Vikings −5
Chiefs at RaidersModel: Chiefs −0.5
Chargers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −8
Lions at PanthersModel: even
Falcons at SaintsModel: Saints −2The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
