Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the 49ers by 2.5 in Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers, NFL Week 4 2026 — 57% to win, and 49ers 14th of 32, Broncos 12th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, 49ers at 52c or below (or Broncos at 38c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DEN
+1.2
SF
+1.0
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Broncos
43%
model win prob
49ers
57%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
33%
Madden 27
67%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the 49ers at 52c or below, or the Broncos at 38c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Broncos at 49ers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| 49ers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| 49ers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| 49ers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| 49ers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| 49ers −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| 49ers −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| 49ers −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungs49ers −10.5 → 49ers −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Broncos at 49ers
The Broncos travel to face the 49ers in Week 4. Our power ratings put the 49ers 14th of 32 at +1.0 (Playoff tier) and the Broncos 12th at +1.2 (Playoff tier) — a 0.2-point gap that home field widens to a 2.5-point line on the 49ers, 57% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 4.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Broncos offense grades +0.6 (16th of 32) against a 49ers defense at -3.0 (31st) — 3.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the 49ers offense (+3.1, 6th) meets the Broncos defense (+0.4, 8th), a 2.8-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.9, 4th in the league, against +0.2 (25th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.9 projected wins for the 49ers against 9.1 for the Broncos, favored in 8 and 9 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Broncos'.
On the calendar, the Broncos are on 7 days and the 49ers are on 7 days. The 49ers are 3 games into a home stand. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2022: Broncos won 11-10 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The 49ers at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 57% / 43% — the tradable window is narrow: 49ers at 52c or below, Broncos at 38c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Broncos vs 49ers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF
- Market-implied (49ers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (49ers)
- 57%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the 49ers at 52c or below, or the Broncos at 38c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Broncos vs 49ers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | 49ers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Broncos vs 49ers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Broncos vs 49ers in Week 4?
Our power-rating model picks the 49ers by 2.5 points, a 57% win probability over the Broncos, for a projected score of 49ers 26, Broncos 24 on a ratings-implied 50.4-point total. The 49ers rate 14th of 32 (+1.0) and the Broncos 12th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Broncos vs 49ers?
Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th of 32) against 49ers defense (-3.0, 31st) — 3.6 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the 49ers (+0.9, 4th).
How do you take a position on Broncos vs 49ers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the 49ers at 52c or below, or the Broncos at 38c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the 49ers host the Broncos?
Denver Broncos visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA.
What does the model project for the 49ers and Broncos this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the 49ers at 8.9 wins (favored in 8) and the Broncos at 9.1 (favored in 9). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Broncos', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Broncos vs 49ers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the 49ers at 52c or below or the Broncos at 38c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Broncos vs 49ers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 4 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DENSF. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the 49ers?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The 49ers at 57% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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