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Home/NFL/Week 2/Colts vs Chiefs
Gridiron EdgeWeek 2 · 2026

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Updated · market price

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Quick Answer

As of September 13, 2026, Kalshi implies 72% for the Chiefs in Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs, NFL Week 2 2026, while our model has the Chiefs by 2 (56% to win) — a 15.4pp gap. Value side: the Colts.

Every NFL edge on the board →

Kickoff board

Week 2 · 2026-09-13

1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 15.4pp on Colts moneyline.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Colts moneylineModel 44% vs market 29% on IND.28.5c44%Attack5.4%

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Two repaired legs and a rebuilt secondary: what actually decides Colts–Chiefs

The market treats Arrowhead on a Sunday night as settled business, and our power ratings do not — they have Kansas City 20th and Indianapolis 15th, which is close to nothing. The reason sits in three places: a Chiefs offense that was already stuck before Patrick Mahomes tore his knee, a Kansas City cornerback room that was taken apart and rebuilt in one offseason, and a Colts team whose 2025 record is really two seasons stapled together.

Quarterback · Chiefs offense

Patrick Mahomes' knee, and the offense that was already stuck

Close to even

Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his knee in December and is trying to open a season roughly nine months later, which is aggressive on its own. The more durable point is that the Kansas City offense had already gone flat before the knee. Mahomes played from shotgun on more than four snaps in five, third-most in the league, and the play-action game that used to be the whole operation produced almost nothing — seventh in the NFL in play-action snaps, 20th in the yards that came back, and nine sacks taken on those plays. The reason is simple and Andy Reid says it out loud: nobody had to respect the run. Kansas City brought back Eric Bieniemy to call it and signed Kenneth Walker III to be the threat that makes the fake work.

Mahomes shotgun rate, 2025
80.6% — 3rd-most in NFL
Play-action snaps → yards, 2025
178 (7th) → 977 (20th)
Chiefs RB carries of 20+ yards, 2025
1 — last in NFL

Source: ESPN — how the Chiefs offense is trying to solve its biggest 2025 issue

Quarterback · availability

Daniel Jones, on a repaired Achilles, is the entire Colts season

Edge: Colts

Jones was having the best season of his career until his right Achilles gave out in a Week 14 loss at Jacksonville. Indianapolis was 8-3 and did not win another game, finishing 8-9 — the same swing that turned the two first-round picks they spent on Sauce Gardner into a much more expensive trade than they planned. Shane Steichen has settled the depth chart behind him: Anthony Richardson is the No. 2 after asking out in the offseason and staying, with Riley Leonard third. Everything the Colts are on Sunday night runs through whether Jones moves the way he did in October.

Jones 2025 completion rate
68.0% — career best
Jones 2025 passer rating
100.2 — career best
Season ended
Week 14, torn right Achilles

Source: Colts — Daniel Jones placed on injured reserve

Trenches

Chris Jones vs Quenton Nelson

Close to even

This is the best individual matchup on the field and it is genuinely even. Nelson is coming off his strongest season since 2020, on a line rated among the best in football — and he plays next to Bernhard Raimann, so the left side Kansas City has to win through is the strongest part of the Colts. Jones is 32, entering his eleventh season, and still the player who sets the ceiling for this pass rush. Kansas City spent the offseason trying to buy him easier reps: Khyiris Tonga on a three-year deal to eat blocks next to him, and first-rounder Peter Woods to rotate. Watch how often Jones is single-blocked on second-and-medium — that is the tell for whether those signings worked.

Run game · Chiefs front seven

Jonathan Taylor vs Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill

Close to even

Taylor played all 17 games last season, led the NFL in carries and in total touchdowns, and is the one thing about Indianapolis that does not depend on a surgery healing correctly. Kansas City is a bad place to run: the Chiefs held opposing backs to four yards a carry and ranked seventh in explosive runs allowed to the position, and Bolton and Tranquill are one of the better starting linebacker pairs in the league. The soft spot is not stopping the run, it is finishing plays — 10th in pressure rate but 22nd in sacks, and Chris Jones' own run-defense grade fell to 108th among interior linemen. Indianapolis winning on the ground on first down is what lets Jones throw on his terms rather than on Steve Spagnuolo's.

Chiefs yards per carry allowed to RBs, 2025
4.0 — 7th in explosive runs allowed
Chiefs sacks, 2025
35 — 22nd, despite 10th in pressure rate
Chris Jones run-defense grade, 2025
43.4 — 108th at the position

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Chiefs 2026 defense unit rankings

Coverage

Sauce Gardner vs Rashee Rice

Edge: Colts

Indianapolis gave up two first-round picks and Adonai Mitchell for Gardner at the 2025 deadline and then watched the season collapse around him, so this is close to the first clean look at what they actually bought. He is the only cornerback since 1970 named first-team All-Pro in each of his first two seasons. Rice is Kansas City's best separator and also the one whose availability nobody can bank on — a six-game suspension and a concussion held him to eight appearances last season, and he was eased back into practice this summer after a knee procedure. Charvarius Ward, who won a ring in Kansas City, plays the other side for the Colts, which means both boundary corners are legitimate and Mahomes' quick game gets tested inside.

What the Colts paid for Gardner
2026 + 2027 first-rounders, plus Adonai Mitchell
Gardner through 55 career games
46 passes defensed
Rice 2025 games played
8 — six-game suspension, then a concussion

Source: Colts — acquire CB Sauce Gardner from the Jets

Coverage · deep shots

Alec Pierce vs Mansoor Delane and L'Jarius Sneed

Edge: Colts

Pierce has led the NFL in yards per reception two years running, and the historical company is thin — nobody had averaged 20-plus on 35-plus catches in back-to-back seasons since Flipper Anderson in 1989 and 1990. Indianapolis re-signed him rather than Michael Pittman Jr., who went to Pittsburgh. What he runs at is a Kansas City cornerback room built from scratch this offseason: Trent McDuffie traded to the Rams, Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook gone in free agency, Mansoor Delane drafted sixth overall, and L'Jarius Sneed brought home on a one-year deal after two injury-shortened years in Tennessee. A rookie first-rounder and a returning veteran with two lost seasons is a lot of talent and very little shared tape.

Pierce yards per reception, 2025
21.3 — NFL-best, second straight year
Pierce 2025 receiving yards
1,003 — first 1,000-yard season
Last to do it in back-to-back years
Flipper Anderson, 1989–90

Source: Colts — Alec Pierce ends 2025 with 1,000 yards and an NFL-best average

Tight ends

Travis Kelce vs Tyler Warren

Close to even

They caught exactly the same number of passes last season — 76 apiece, one of them 36 years old and in his fourteenth year, the other a rookie setting the Colts' franchise record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end. Kelce led Kansas City in targets, which says as much about the receivers around him as it does about him. Warren was used everywhere: nearly 900 offensive snaps, more than a third of them lined up as a receiver, some in the backfield. Neither defense has an obvious answer, and the read to watch is who Indianapolis leaves on Kelce on third down, given the linebacker room turned over completely with Zaire Franklin traded and Akeem Davis-Gaither signed to replace him.

Kelce 2025
76 catches on a team-leading 103 targets, 5 TD
Kenneth Walker 2025 with Seattle
1,340 rushing yards, 9 TD
All-time series
Colts lead 18–11; KC won the last meeting in OT

Source: Yahoo Sports — early preview of the Colts Week 2 matchup at Kansas City

Model provenance

Why our ratings have Kansas City 20th when the market does not

Close to even

This is the most interesting disagreement on the page, and it is worth being explicit about where it comes from. Our power ratings are efficiency-based, not reputation-based, and they price Kansas City as a below-average team on both sides — 20th on offense, 18th on defense — which is a fair description of what the 2025 tape actually showed. Indianapolis grades better on offense (11th) and much worse on defense (23rd), and the third component nobody talks about, special teams, is where the Colts quietly pick up ground. Two honest counterweights: Kansas City went 1-9 in one-score games last season, the worst mark in the league, and that kind of record regresses hard; and the Colts' defensive number is priced off a unit that spent most of 2025 without DeForest Buckner, Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner on the field together. The ratings are a starting point here, not a verdict.

Chiefs PWR
−0.60, 20th — off 20th, def 18th, ST 19th
Colts PWR
+0.02, 15th — off 11th, def 23rd, ST 9th
Gap between them on the points scale
about six tenths of a point

Source: PredictionMarketsPicks — 2026 NFL power ratings, all 32 teams

What this read does not know

  • Nothing in this read reflects 2026 football, because none has been played yet. Every club opens on September 13 or 14 — Kansas City on Monday night against Denver — so at the time of writing neither of these teams has taken a regular-season snap this year. Every number here is 2025 or offseason reporting.
  • There is no Week 2 injury report yet. The first one lands Wednesday, September 16, and until then availability for this game is guesswork, not information.
  • Patrick Mahomes has cleared every medical checkpoint and has not missed a practice since July, but "cleared to play" and "moving like the player who tore an ACL and LCL nine months ago" are different claims, and only the first one has evidence behind it.
  • Alec Pierce had a cleanup procedure on his left ankle and heel in March and did not return to practice until the week before the opener. He is expected to play, but he and Daniel Jones have barely worked together since both had surgery, and the deep-shot connection that made Indianapolis dangerous may take time to come back.
  • Kansas City's cornerback room has never played a competitive down together. Mansoor Delane is a rookie taken sixth overall, L'Jarius Sneed is coming off two injury-shortened seasons, and the depth behind them was still being sorted at cutdown. That is upside and downside in the same sentence.
  • The 2025 Colts defense graded far better against the run (seventh in rushing yards allowed per game, second in yards per carry) than its overall reputation, and far worse in the games where Buckner, Ward and Gardner were unavailable. Which of those two units shows up in 2026 is the single biggest open question in our rating of Indianapolis.
  • Our own prop model is under a publication block for pass-yards and receiving-yards legs this week — the passing and receiving sides of the same run do not reconcile. No projection-based passing or receiving call appears anywhere in this read for that reason. Rushing, receptions and team-level observations above are sourced reporting, not model output.
  • Josh Simmons, Kansas City's left tackle, played eight games as a rookie before a fractured wrist ended his season, and Jalen Travis takes over at right tackle for Indianapolis after four career starts. Both tackle jobs are graded on very little evidence.

Reporting verified 2026-09-10. Further sources: Colts — first unofficial 2026 regular-season depth chart · Chiefs — official 2026 depth chart · ESPN — Chiefs training camp 2026: Mahomes, Chris Jones and a 1-9 record in one-score games · ESPN — how the Chiefs offense is trying to solve its biggest 2025 issue · Sharp Football Analysis — Chiefs 2026 defense unit rankings · Colts — Daniel Jones placed on injured reserve · Colts — acquire CB Sauce Gardner from the Jets · Colts — Alec Pierce ends 2025 with 1,000 yards and an NFL-best average · Colts — Alec Pierce is expected to play Week 1, but is he ready? · Colts — 2025 rookie review: Tyler Warren · Colts — Lou Anarumo coaching bio, 2025 defensive ranks · Colts — Week 12 2025 recap: 11-point fourth-quarter lead lost in overtime at Kansas City · Chiefs — Eric Bieniemy named offensive coordinator · Sports Illustrated — did the Chiefs do enough to rejuvenate their defensive line for 2026? · Yahoo Sports — early preview of the Colts Week 2 matchup at Kansas City · PredictionMarketsPicks — 2026 NFL power ratings, all 32 teams

PMP · WK 2 TOP EDGE
Sun, Sep 20
AWAY IND +0.0
vs KC -2
HOME KC -0.6
Model · KC 56% home win prob
Kalshi · KC 72¢ yes mid
Edge -15.4pp model − market
📍 Kansas City, MO BUY IND
Model says Colts at 30c or better — 15.4pp above the market.Take the position on Kalshi →

Colts

44%

model win prob

Chiefs

56%

model win prob

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

38%

Madden 27

62%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Colts at Chiefs

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Colts at ChiefsSpreadONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%Chiefs −0.5Chiefs −3.5Chiefs −6.5Chiefs −9.5Chiefs −14.5KALSHIPMP MODEL
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
—
Kalshi · P(YES)
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

RungMarketModelGap
Chiefs −0.5—🔒—not listed
Chiefs −1.5—🔒—not listed
Chiefs −2.5—🔒—not listed
Chiefs −3.5—🔒—not listed
Chiefs −4.5—🔒—not listed
Chiefs −6.5—🔒—not listed
Chiefs −7.5—🔒—not listed
Chiefs −9.5—outside range—not listed
3 more rungsChiefs −10.5 → Chiefs −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
Chiefs −10.5—outside range—not listed
Chiefs −13.5—outside range—not listed
Chiefs −14.5—outside range—not listed

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier
Indianapolis Colts+0.015thAverage
Kansas City Chiefs-0.620thAverage

Season outlook

INDKC
Average wins8.78.2
Make playoffs46%43%
Win division24%27%
Win Super Bowl2.8%2.3%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

What the model sees in Colts at Chiefs

The Colts travel to face the Chiefs in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Chiefs 20th of 32 at -0.6 (Average tier) and the Colts 15th at +0.0 (Average tier) — a 0.6-point gap that home field widens to a 2-point line on the Chiefs, 56% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +1.1 (11th of 32) against a Chiefs defense at -0.8 (18th) — 1.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (-0.2, 20th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 1.6-point gap.

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.2 projected wins for the Chiefs against 8.7 for the Colts, favored in 9 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Colts'.

Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Colts' favour, plus 5 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Chiefs won 23-20 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Chiefs are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Chiefs at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC contract implies 72% for the Chiefs against our 56% — a 15.4-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Colts as the value side at 30c.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Colts vs Chiefs on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC
Market-implied (Chiefs)
72c · 72%
Our model (Chiefs)
56%
Model vs market
-15.4pp

Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 72c on the Chiefs is an implied 72% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 56%, a 15.4pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Where Colts vs Chiefs trades

2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenueChiefsTrade
Kalshi72% 72cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig70% 70cOpen Novig →
Polymarketno captured price for this game — international bookSign-up offer →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract72% 72cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract72% 72cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Colts vs Chiefs — frequently asked

Who is favored in Colts vs Chiefs in Week 2?

Our power-rating model picks the Chiefs by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Colts, for a projected score of Chiefs 25, Colts 23 on a ratings-implied 47.5-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC market implies 72% for the Chiefs — a 15.4pp gap versus the model.

What is the biggest mismatch in Colts vs Chiefs?

Colts offense (+1.1, 11th of 32) against Chiefs defense (-0.8, 18th) — 1.9 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.

How do you take a position on Colts vs Chiefs?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Chiefs YES is quoted around 72c against our 56% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Chiefs host the Colts?

Indianapolis Colts visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.

What does the model project for the Chiefs and Colts this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Chiefs at 8.2 wins (favored in 9) and the Colts at 8.7 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Colts', by model win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Chiefs?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC. The Chiefs YES contract sits around 72c, which is an implied 72% — against our model's 56%. That is a 15.4pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Can you trade Colts vs Chiefs on Kalshi?

Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Chiefs?

57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Chiefs at 56% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Is Colts moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 44% against a market price implying 29%, an edge of +15.4 points. Model 44% vs market 29% on IND. We rate it attack, sized at 5.4% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.

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More Week 2 matchups

Lions at BillsBills −4
Panthers at FalconsFalcons −3.5
Saints at RavensRavens −6
Vikings at BearsBears −6.5
Bengals at TexansTexans −5
Steelers at PatriotsPatriots −8.5
Packers at JetsPackers −5
Browns at BuccaneersBuccaneers −4
Eagles at TitansEagles −3
Jaguars at BroncosBroncos −1
Raiders at ChargersChargers −8
Seahawks at CardinalsSeahawks −7
Commanders at CowboysCowboys −5.5
Dolphins at 49ers49ers −7
Giants at RamsRams −9

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