Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Chiefs by 2 in Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs, NFL Week 2 2026 — 56% to win, and Chiefs 20th of 32, Colts 15th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Chiefs at 51c or below (or Colts at 39c or below) is where the model would take a position.
IND
-0.1
KC
-0.5
Colts
44%
model win prob
Chiefs
56%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKChasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Chiefs at 51c or below, or the Colts at 39c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Colts at Chiefs
The Colts travel to face the Chiefs in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Chiefs 20th of 32 at -0.5 (Average tier) and the Colts 15th at -0.1 (Average tier) — a 0.4-point gap that home field widens to a 2-point line on the Chiefs, 56% to win. It rates as the 15th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +0.9 (14th of 32) against a Chiefs defense at -0.8 (18th) — 1.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (-0.1, 20th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 1.6-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.2 projected wins for the Chiefs against 8.6 for the Colts, favored in 8 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Colts'.
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Colts' favour, plus 5 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Chiefs won 23-20 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Chiefs are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Chiefs at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 56% / 44% — the tradable window is narrow: Chiefs at 51c or below, Colts at 39c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Colts vs Chiefs — frequently asked
Who is favored in Colts vs Chiefs in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Chiefs by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Colts. The Chiefs rate 20th of 32 (-0.5) and the Colts 15th (-0.1); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Colts vs Chiefs?
Colts offense (+0.9, 14th of 32) against Chiefs defense (-0.8, 18th) — 1.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Colts vs Chiefs?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chiefs at 51c or below, or the Colts at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chiefs host the Colts?
Indianapolis Colts visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
What does the model project for the Chiefs and Colts this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chiefs at 8.2 wins (favored in 8) and the Colts at 8.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Colts', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Chiefs?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Chiefs at 56% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.