Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi implies 75% for the Chiefs in Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs, NFL Week 2 2026, while our model has the Chiefs by 2 (56% to win) — a 18.4pp gap. Value side: the Colts.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-011 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 18.4pp on Colts moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
IND
+0.0
KC
-0.6
Colts
44%
model win prob
Chiefs
56%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
38%
Madden 27
62%
Madden 27
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Power-rating comparison
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What the model sees in Colts at Chiefs
The Colts travel to face the Chiefs in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Chiefs 20th of 32 at -0.6 (Average tier) and the Colts 15th at +0.0 (Average tier) — a 0.6-point gap that home field widens to a 2-point line on the Chiefs, 56% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +1.1 (11th of 32) against a Chiefs defense at -0.8 (18th) — 1.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (-0.2, 20th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 1.6-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.2 projected wins for the Chiefs against 8.7 for the Colts, favored in 9 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Colts'.
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Colts' favour, plus 5 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Chiefs won 23-20 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Chiefs are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Chiefs at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC contract implies 75% for the Chiefs against our 56% — a 18.4-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Colts as the value side at 25c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Colts vs Chiefs on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC
- Market-implied (Chiefs)
- 75c · 75%
- Our model (Chiefs)
- 56%
- Model vs market
- -18.4pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 75c on the Chiefs is an implied 75% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 56%, a 18.4pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Colts vs Chiefs trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chiefs | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 75% 75c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 75% 75c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 75% 75c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Colts vs Chiefs — frequently asked
Who is favored in Colts vs Chiefs in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Chiefs by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Colts. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC market implies 75% for the Chiefs — a 18.4pp gap versus the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Colts vs Chiefs?
Colts offense (+1.1, 11th of 32) against Chiefs defense (-0.8, 18th) — 1.9 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Colts vs Chiefs?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Chiefs YES is quoted around 75c against our 56% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chiefs host the Colts?
Indianapolis Colts visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
What does the model project for the Chiefs and Colts this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chiefs at 8.2 wins (favored in 9) and the Colts at 8.7 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Colts', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Chiefs?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC. The Chiefs YES contract sits around 75c, which is an implied 75% — against our model's 56%. That is a 18.4pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Colts vs Chiefs on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Chiefs?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Chiefs at 56% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Colts moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 44% against a market price implying 26%, an edge of +18.4 points. Model 44% vs market 26% on IND. We rate it attack, sized at 6.2% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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