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Home/NFL/Week 2/Colts vs Chiefs
Gridiron EdgeWeek 2 · 2026

Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (OT)

Final. Chiefs' next game: Chiefs vs Broncos, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (OT) — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 6 (70% to win); the Chiefs won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Chiefs at 72c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (OT)Final / OT

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 6 (70% to win). The Chiefs won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Chiefs: -1c — we archived the Chiefs at 73c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 72c on Sep 20. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kansas City 33, Indianapolis 30 (OT): the Colts kicked to tie from fourth-and-8, and Butker’s 40-yarder went through as the overtime clock hit zero

Kansas City gained 523 yards, scored on seven of its ten full possessions, and still needed a walk-off field goal — the second straight year the Chiefs have beaten Indianapolis on a kick in overtime. Mahomes threw for 382 and three touchdowns, Kenneth Walker III ran 24 times for 117 and caught six more for 61, and Travis Kelce went nine for 101 and a score. Indianapolis led 20-17 at the half on Jonathan Taylor’s 24-yard run, tied it at 27 on his second score with 5:37 left, and in overtime had a go-ahead chance in field-goal range after a ruled fumble by Laquon Treadwell was overturned to down by contact; on fourth-and-8, Shane Steichen took a delay-of-game penalty and kicked to tie. Sixty-three combined points cleared a closing total of 46.5 by sixteen and a half, and the Colts, plus six at the close, lost by three.

Colts 30—Chiefs 33

Final / OT✓ Call hit

Two claims live on this page and they get separate sentences. The chip grades the stored pre-game probability, which had Kansas City at 70.2% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 6-point margin that matches the DraftKings close — and Kansas City won, so it reads a hit. Crediting the model for that would be crediting it for agreeing with a price it copied. The model’s own read is the separate figure on the same row: Kansas City by 2.6, a 3.4-point lean toward Indianapolis against the market’s six. That lean graded WATCH, did not clear the floor, and produced no position — there is no nfl_weekly_edges row for 2026_02_IND_KC, so no entry, no close and no CLV. For the record, the lean was the right direction: the Colts covered by three and the game was decided by a kick as time expired. Nobody traded it, and a read that stops short of a position is not a record either way. What was published went two ways. The Play of the Day on Sunday was Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown, YES at 61c on Kalshi (KXNFLTD-26SEP20INDKC-KCKWALKER9-1), a manual usage read that said in its own copy that the board does not price anytime-touchdown markets and that 61c was not a model edge. Walker touched the ball thirty times for 178 scrimmage yards and never scored; Mahomes threw all three Kansas City touchdowns, to Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals from thirteen, one and one yard out, and Butker kicked the rest. The picks-today ledger settled the play as a loss on Monday morning. The Week 2 props article (Sept. 19) carried the other published call — Walker 90+ rushing yards, YES at 41c — the fifth of its five cards, and after the first four went 0-4 on Sunday afternoon this one cashed on the 117: a win at +59c gross at the article’s price. The prop board is the third surface and it is the usage story again. Visible PLAY rows went one and three: Walker over 89.5 rushing yards, priced 38.5c on the Sunday-morning board and closing 43.5c, cleared on 117 against a 109-yard projection; Mahomes under 1.5 passing touchdowns — the NO side of 2+, YES at 50c when captured — lost on three against a 1.4 projection; and Jonathan Taylor under 79.5 and under 89.5 rushing yards — YES at 51c and 41c when captured, the NO side of each — both lost on his 92 against a 59.6-yard projection, a miss of thirty-two yards on a back who had 75 by halftime. Six suppressed passing-yards rows went one and five and count for nothing, but the honest sentence is that our projection had Mahomes at 170 passing yards and he threw for 382; four Mahomes unders from 174.5 to 249.5 all lost, and a Mahomes under 225 card drafted for this page on Thursday was refused before publication because pass_yds is suppressed — it would have lost, and it does not count, in that order. Daniel Jones under 199.5 lost on 210 and under 224.5 cleared, same suppression, same rule. Six surfaceable WATCH rows went four and two and are graded apart: Walker over 14.5 and over 19.5 receiving yards and Kelce over 24.5 all cleared, Taylor under 109.5 rushing cleared, Jones under 9.5 rushing lost on 10 and Taylor under 14.5 receiving lost on 40.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Chiefs −5.5 → Chiefs −6
Total
47.5 → 46.5
Moneyline
IND +205 / KC −250 → IND +215 / KC −265

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 1 to 46.5; the game landed on 63.

How it happened

Q1

An eleven-play opening drive, then Fulton’s interception turned into a Kelce touchdown two plays later

Indianapolis took the opening kickoff 65 yards in eleven plays, Daniel Jones finding Tyler Warren from a yard out. Butker answered from 46, and on the Colts’ second possession Kristian Fulton intercepted Jones on the second play. Kansas City needed two snaps: Mahomes hit Kelce from thirteen for a 10-7 lead with 4:34 left in the quarter. The Colts’ third drive ran eleven plays into the second quarter and produced a 42-yard field goal.

After one
Chiefs 10, Colts 7
Fulton
1 INT — the only turnover of the game
Attendance
73,351 at Arrowhead Stadium

ESPN — box score

Q2

Butker missed from 51, and Taylor’s 24-yard run put Indianapolis ahead at the half

Each of Kansas City’s first four possessions would have produced points but for Butker’s miss from 51 early in the second quarter — the only one of his five attempts that did not go through. Spencer Shrader kicked twice, from 42 and 49, for a 13-10 Colts lead; Mahomes answered with a twelve-play, 70-yard drive that ended in a one-yard throw to Worthy. Indianapolis then went 72 yards in six plays and 1:26, Taylor finishing from 24 with 59 seconds left. Taylor had 75 of his 92 rushing yards by the break.

Halftime
Colts 20, Chiefs 17
Butker
4/5 FG (46, 28, 31, 40; missed 51) · 3/3 XP · 15 pts
Taylor
24 car · 92 yds · 2 TD · 4 rec · 40 yds

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Kansas City held the ball for all but 2:22 of the third quarter

The Chiefs opened the half with a fourteen-play, 80-yard drive that took 6:59 and ended with Mahomes to Jalen Royals from a yard. Indianapolis went four plays and punted. Kansas City then ran thirteen plays over 81 yards, the drive carrying into the fourth quarter before Butker hit from 28 for 27-20. Kansas City finished with 37 minutes of possession to 33 in a game that went to overtime, and 29 first downs to 24.

After three
Chiefs 24, Colts 20
Mahomes
32/47 · 382 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · 2 sacks
Kelce
9 rec · 101 yds · 1 TD on 11 targets

ESPN — box score

Overtime

Taylor tied it with 5:37 left; in overtime a ruled fumble was overturned, the Colts kicked from fourth-and-8, and Walker set up the walk-off

Indianapolis answered Butker’s field goal with a thirteen-play, 64-yard drive that took 8:38 and ended with Taylor from five to tie it at 27; neither side scored in the last 5:37 of regulation. Butker opened overtime from 31 after an eleven-play drive. Jones then went deep to Laquon Treadwell for 48, the ball came loose after the catch and Kansas City recovered, and review ruled Treadwell down by contact. Three plays later the Colts faced fourth-and-8, took a delay of game, and Shrader tied it from 38 with 3:11 left. Walker carried on three straight plays to midfield, then turned a checkdown into 22 yards against a pressure look, and Butker’s 40-yarder went through as the clock expired.

Final
Chiefs 33, Colts 30 (OT)
Walker
24 car · 117 yds · 6 rec · 61 yds · 0 TD
Total offense
KC 523 · IND 329

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game’s props — result, pnl_cents and graded_at were null on every Week 2 prop row when this was written, and no game-level nfl_weekly_edges row exists for 2026_02_IND_KC. Every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong. The Play of the Day is the exception: the picks-today ledger settled it as a loss at 14:00 UTC on 2026-09-21, and that entry is the record.
  • The stored fair-value row carries updated_at 2026-09-21 12:02 UTC, eight hours after this game ended. Its fair_margin of 6 equals the DraftKings closing spread, which is what a pre-kickoff anchor would hold, but this recap cannot prove from the row alone that the 70.2% the chip grades is the number the page served at kickoff. Three other Week 2 rows were re-anchored by the same Monday pass.
  • The Treadwell sequence — ruled a fumble on the field, overturned to down by contact, then a delay-of-game penalty before the tying kick on fourth-and-8 — is the AP’s account. ESPN’s scoring log carries no non-scoring plays, and this recap has not checked the official gamebook for the penalty or the spot.
  • Taylor under 89.5 rushing yards is graded a loss on the box score’s 92. A three-yard scoring correction in the league’s official statistics would flip that call; the 79.5 strike would not move. The AP’s "75 of his rushing yards" by halftime is the AP’s split, not the box score’s.
  • Walker 90+ rushing yards carries two prices and they are not added together: 41c in Friday’s article (cheapest entry named as BetRivers 41.2c, Kalshi 42.7c net of fee) and 38.5c on the Sunday-morning board with a 43.5c close. The article’s call is graded at the article’s price and the board’s at the board’s.
  • Alec Pierce was carted off with a heel injury early in the second quarter, Micheal Clemons left before the half and Charvarius Ward hurt his groin after it, all per the AP; the board carried no row on any of them, so nothing changes, but the injury list is a single outlet’s. ESPN’s summary carried no weather block. Attendance is ESPN’s figure.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price, and the prop grades are resolutions against the box score, not settlements read off the exchange.

Reporting verified 2026-09-21. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Mahomes and Walker shine, Butker hits winning 40-yarder as Chiefs beat Colts 33-30 in OT · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line · PMP — NFL Week 2 Props: Five Plays, and Where the Best Price Actually Is (the Walker 90+ card)

Kenneth Walker's new Kansas City ground game meets a Colts run defense Baltimore just buried.

Indianapolis was outgained 506–251 and gave up 202 rushing yards in a 41–23 home loss to Baltimore; Kansas City held Denver to 176 total yards in a 31–10 Monday-night win while Kenneth Walker III ran for 173. Both quarterbacks are one game removed from major surgeries — Patrick Mahomes from a torn ACL, Daniel Jones from a torn Achilles — and both offensive lines are patching a tackle spot. The sharpest question of the night is whether Lou Anarumo can fix a run fit in six days.

Chiefs run offense · Colts run defense

Kenneth Walker III and Andy Heck's front vs. Lou Anarumo's run fits

Edge: Chiefs

Walker — signed in free agency after winning Super Bowl MVP with Seattle — ran 23 times for 173 yards and a 60-yard fourth-and-1 touchdown in his Chiefs debut, the most rushing yards in any game Mahomes has started ([NFL.com](https://www.nfl.com/news/kenneth-walker-iii-pummels-broncos-in-debut-with-chiefs)). Kansas City ran on 56.7% of snaps and led the league in run-defense-adjacent volume metrics, with 34.8% of its runs on outside zone, the highest rate in Week 1 ([Sharp Football Analysis](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/colts-chiefs-week-2-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2026)). The Colts gave up 202 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to Baltimore, including 112 yards and 3 TDs on 18 outside-zone carries — the exact play family Kansas City leaned on ([NFL.com Week 2 picks](https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-picks-week-2-2026-nfl-season); [Sharp Football Analysis](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/colts-chiefs-week-2-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2026)). Indianapolis has already responded by moving the defensive play-call radio from safety Cam Bynum to linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither, who played for Anarumo in Cincinnati ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/indianapolis-colts-akeem-davis-gaither-794bd2b863a6a2903167b748ca0ab1f7)).

Walker Week 1
23 carries, 173 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 3 catches, 18 yards, 1 TD (191 scrimmage yards)
Colts Week 1 run defense
202 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs allowed; Derrick Henry 24-144-3 (6.0 ypc)
Scheme overlap
34.8% of Chiefs runs outside zone (highest in Week 1); Colts allowed 112 yds/3 TD on 18 outside-zone runs

Source: NFL.com — Walker debut

Colts pass protection · Chiefs pass rush

Indy's top-rated line vs. Steve Spagnuolo's pressure package

Edge: Chiefs

The Colts open with LT Bernhard Raimann, LG Quenton Nelson, C Tanor Bortolini, RG Matt Goncalves and RT Jalen Travis — a group PFF slotted fourth in its 2026 offensive line rankings, with Travis a second-year player taking over for the departed Braden Smith ([IndyStar](https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2026/09/08/colts-sign-luke-tenuta-to-bolster-offensive-line-depth-waive-cb-jaylon-jones/91661340007); [PFF OL rankings](https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-rankings-2026)). That line was not charged with a single sack allowed in Week 1, but Daniel Jones still faced pressure on 52% of dropbacks and was sacked twice on 31 attempts ([Week 2 film preview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnk2kOuXyNY)). Kansas City generated 25 pressures and four sacks on Bo Nix, pressuring him on roughly 46% of dropbacks — fourth-highest in Week 1 — and still hit 36% pressure with a four-man rush ([Chiefs.com](https://www.chiefs.com/news/10-quick-facts-following-the-chiefs-week-1-win-over-denver-upon-further-review); [Yahoo/A to Z](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/numbers-never-lie-3-chiefs-154500295.html)).

Colts Week 1 OL
LT Raimann, LG Nelson, C Bortolini, RG Goncalves, RT Travis; PFF's No. 4 line entering 2026
Jones under duress
pressured on 52% of dropbacks, sacked twice on 31 attempts, no lineman charged with a sack allowed
Chiefs rush
25 pressures, 4 sacks, ~46% pressure rate vs. Denver; 36% pressure when rushing four

Source: IndyStar — Colts OL/roster

Chiefs defensive line · Colts interior offensive line

Chris Jones' calf, Peter Woods' arrival, and a managed snap count

Edge: Chiefs

Chris Jones is confirmed on the Kansas City roster** and remains the centerpiece of the front, but he is on the Week 2 injury report with a calf issue and was limited in both Wednesday's and Thursday's practices ([Chiefs.com injury report](https://www.chiefs.com/news/2026-week-2-injury-report-colts-vs-chiefs); [FootballDB](https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/indianapolis-colts/injuries?gid=2026092014)). He played only 51% of defensive snaps against Denver — described locally as deliberate workload management rather than a down night — while first-round rookie DT Peter Woods took 57% ([KCSN](https://www.kcsn.com/p/10-observations-from-the-chiefs-week)). Jones still logged three pressures and a fumble recovery; George Karlaftis had four pressures, Felix Anudike-Uzomah three and a forced fumble, and second-round rookie edge R Mason Thomas two pressures and a sack ([Chiefs.com](https://www.chiefs.com/news/10-quick-facts-following-the-chiefs-week-1-win-over-denver-upon-further-review)). Note the context for the low outside expectations: Jones and Karlaftis combined for just 13 sacks in 2025 and Jones fell from No. 10 to No. 50 in ESPN's NFL Rank ([ESPN roster projection](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49663269/2026-nfl-season-kansas-city-chiefs-final-roster-projection-depth-chart); [ESPN NFL Rank](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49706895/2026-nfl-season-rankings-top-100-players-predictions-stats)).

Chris Jones status
Calf; Limited Wed. 9/16 and Thu. 9/17. Friday designation not yet published as of 9/18
Week 1 workload
Jones 51% of defensive snaps; rookie DT Peter Woods 57%
Week 1 pressures
Karlaftis 4, Anudike-Uzomah 3, Bolton 3, Jones 3, R Mason Thomas 2 (plus his first career sack)

Source: Chiefs.com — Week 2 Injury Report

Chiefs pass protection · Colts pass rush

An undrafted rookie left tackle vs. a pass rush that ranked 30th

Edge: Chiefs

Kansas City's projected line is LT Josh Simmons, LG Kingsley Suamataia, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Jaylon Moore ([PFF OL rankings](https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-rankings-2026)). Simmons has not practiced Wednesday or Thursday with a back injury and did not play in Week 1; Andy Reid said only that he is "making progress" ([Chiefs.com injury report](https://www.chiefs.com/news/2026-week-2-injury-report-colts-vs-chiefs); [Salina Post — Reid quotes 9/16](https://salinapost.com/posts/29f6fb2b-664f-4521-88bf-2bbd4446e4a6)). Undrafted rookie **Kahlil Benson** started at left tackle and allowed one pressure on 32 pass-blocking snaps — a 3.2% pressure rate, best among all rookie tackles in Week 1 ([Chiefs.com](https://www.chiefs.com/news/10-quick-facts-following-the-chiefs-week-1-win-over-denver-upon-further-review)). The Colts' counter-punch is thin: Indianapolis was 15th in sacks but 30th in pass-rush win rate in 2025, lost Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam, and replaced them with Arden Key and Micheal Clemons around Laiatu Latu ([Pro Football Rumors](https://www.profootballrumors.com/2026/09/offseason-in-review-indianapolis-colts-8)). Anarumo compensated with volume, blitzing Lamar Jackson 41% of the time for two sacks and a forced fumble ([Week 2 film preview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnk2kOuXyNY)).

Simmons
Back; DNP Wed. 9/16 and Thu. 9/17; did not play Week 1. Friday status not yet published
Benson debut
1 pressure allowed on 32 pass-block snaps (3.2%), best of any rookie tackle in Week 1
Colts rush profile
30th in pass-rush win rate in 2025; Paye and Ebukam gone, Key and Clemons added

Source: PFF — 2026 NFL offensive line rankings

Chiefs pass offense · Colts secondary

Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward vs. a three-man Kansas City receiver room

Edge: Colts

Sauce Gardner is confirmed as a Colt and a full-time outside starter.** Indianapolis acquired him from the Jets on Nov. 4, 2025 for its 2026 and 2027 first-round picks plus WR Adonai Mitchell ([Colts.com](https://www.colts.com/news/colts-acquire-cb-sauce-gardner-from-new-york-jets-in-exchange-for-2026-2027-first-round-picks-and-wr-adonai-mitchell)). He played 68 of 68 defensive snaps in Week 1, with Charvarius Ward at 65 (96%) and third-round slot corner Justin Walley at 39 (57%) ([Colts Week 1 snap counts](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/colts-week-1-snap-counts-100334830.html)). Crucially, **Baltimore avoided Gardner**: he was reportedly targeted twice in man coverage and gave up one catch for 12 yards, while the Ravens schemed Zay Flowers onto Walley, who allowed two catches for 67 yards before Flowers left injured with 150 first-half receiving yards ([Stampede Blue](https://www.stampedeblue.com/indianapolis-colts-analysis/127423/horse-power-or-horse-play-reactions-from-colts-week-1-loss-to-ravens-nevermore)). Kansas City ran essentially no receiver rotation: Rashee Rice 83% of snaps, Xavier Worthy 77% (right side, 76.9% outside), Tyquan Thornton 68% — Rice and Worthy combined for 5 catches, 37 yards and a TD ([A to Z Sports snap counts](https://atozsports.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-news/chiefs-week-1-snap-count-observations-khyiris-tonga-cyrus-allen); [NBC Sports](https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/player-news/2026-09-15/breer-cards-will-be-judicious-on-jeremiyah-love)). Indianapolis played a league-high 46.9% man coverage in Week 1, which is the exact look Mahomes has struggled against — 26th in passer rating (78.5) versus man over the past season ([Sharp Football Analysis](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/colts-chiefs-week-2-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2026)).

Gardner Week 1
68 of 68 snaps (100%); reportedly targeted twice in man coverage, 1 catch, 12 yards allowed
Colts CB alignment
Gardner and Ward outside, Justin Walley in the slot (57% of snaps, NFL debut after a 2025 ACL tear)
KC receiver usage
Rice 83% snaps, Worthy 77%, Thornton 68%; only one other WR took a single offensive snap

Source: Colts.com — Gardner trade announcement

Colts pass offense · Chiefs secondary

A rebuilt Kansas City secondary vs. a Colts passing game that managed 166 yards

Edge: Chiefs

Trent McDuffie is no longer a Chief.** Kansas City turned over four defensive backs in one offseason — McDuffie and Jaylen Watson both joined the Rams, with Joshua Williams and Bryan Cook also departing — and replaced them with rookie first-rounder Mansoor Delane and second-year CB Nohl Williams as the primary starters, plus returning veteran L'Jarius Sneed and Kristian Fulton ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49663269/2026-nfl-season-kansas-city-chiefs-final-roster-projection-depth-chart); [Instagram/Chiefs beat](https://www.instagram.com/p/Dbo0hz2Rpee)). Delane, a top-10 pick out of LSU, intercepted a pass on his third NFL snap before leaving with a shoulder injury; he practiced fully Wednesday and Thursday and is on track to play ([Chiefs.com](https://www.chiefs.com/news/10-quick-facts-following-the-chiefs-week-1-win-over-denver-upon-further-review); [A to Z Sports](https://atozsports.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-news/chiefs-thursday-injury-report-week-2-colts-mansoor-delane-on-track-sunday-night)). Safety Chamarri Conner has not practiced (knee) and did not play Week 1; Jaden Hicks took every snap in his place ([KCSN](https://www.kcsn.com/p/10-observations-from-the-chiefs-week)). Against them, Daniel Jones threw for 166 yards on 31 attempts with a TD and an INT, and the Colts averaged under five yards per play and went 3-for-10 on third down ([ESPN recap](https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872659); [Week 2 film preview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnk2kOuXyNY)).

KC starting CBs
Mansoor Delane (rookie, top-10 pick) and Nohl Williams; Sneed and Fulton behind them; McDuffie and Watson now with the Rams
Delane status
Shoulder; Full participant Wed. 9/16 and Thu. 9/17; Reid said he is back
Colts Week 1 passing
Jones 19/31, 166 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 5.4 yards per attempt; team 3-for-10 on third down

Source: ESPN — 2026 Chiefs roster projection/depth chart

Colts run offense · Chiefs run defense

Jonathan Taylor's near-total backfield share vs. the league's best Week 1 run defense

Close to even

Taylor is carrying essentially the entire Indianapolis backfield: 88.7% snap share and a 95.7% backfield touch share in Week 1, with 19 carries for 98 yards and two touchdowns plus three catches for 23 yards, and a lost fumble that led to a Baltimore score ([Sharp Football Analysis](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/colts-chiefs-week-2-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2026); [ESPN recap](https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872659)). Backup DJ Giddens did not practice Thursday with a knee injury, which would concentrate the workload further ([FootballDB](https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/indianapolis-colts/injuries?gid=2026092014)). Taylor accounted for 98 of the Colts' 102 team rushing yards — there was no secondary threat ([Vegas Odds preview](https://www.vegasodds.com/predictions/nfl/nfl-odds-colts-vs-chiefs-week-2-picks-sep-20)). Kansas City led the league in run-defense success rate at 80% and held Denver to 3.7 yards per play and 47 total offensive snaps ([Sharp Football Analysis](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/colts-chiefs-week-2-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2026)). The caveat on both sides is a single game against a Denver offense that produced 176 total yards; and Kansas City held Taylor to 58 rushing yards when the teams met in Week 12 of 2025.

Taylor Week 1
19 carries, 98 yards, 2 TD; 3 catches, 23 yards; 88.7% snap share, 95.7% backfield touch share; 1 lost fumble
Colts team rushing
102 total rushing yards, 98 of them Taylor's
Chiefs run defense
league-leading 80% run-defense success rate; 3.7 defensive yards per play (1st)

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Colts/Chiefs Week 2 Worksheet

Quarterback play · both directions

Mahomes' rebuilt knee vs. Jones' rebuilt Achilles

Edge: Chiefs

Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed: Patrick Mahomes for Kansas City, Daniel Jones for Indianapolis.** Mahomes tore his ACL in Week 15 of 2025 and returned in Week 1 nine months to the day, completing 15 of 27 for 184 yards and two touchdown passes plus a rushing score; he is listed with a knee designation but practiced fully Wednesday and Thursday ([Newsday/AP](https://www.newsday.com/sports/football/kansas-city-chiefs-patrick-mahomes-nfl-i00333); [Chiefs.com injury report](https://www.chiefs.com/news/2026-week-2-injury-report-colts-vs-chiefs)). He was pressured on 34% of dropbacks and sacked twice, but the game plan leaned on Walker rather than the arm — Kansas City passed on only 43.3% of snaps, 29th in the league ([Reddit/NGS compilation](https://www.reddit.com/r/DenverBroncos/comments/1wi9c7m/another_brutal_stat_bo_was_pressured_on_25_of_his); [Sharp Football Analysis](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/colts-chiefs-week-2-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2026)). Jones was playing his first game since tearing his right Achilles in December 2025 and was visibly limited as a runner — one carry for four yards ([ESPN recap](https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872659); [Yahoo/Colts Wire](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/colts-receive-harsh-grade-disastrous-134052085.html)). Backup Anthony Richardson (groin) did not practice Wednesday but was full Thursday ([FootballDB](https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/indianapolis-colts/injuries?gid=2026092014)).

Mahomes Week 1
15/27, 184 yards, 2 passing TD, 1 rushing TD; pressured on ~34% of dropbacks; Full practice Wed./Thu.
Jones Week 1
19/31, 166 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 1 carry for 4 yards in first game since a December 2025 Achilles tear
Pass/run balance
Chiefs passed on 43.3% of snaps (29th); Colts passed on 62.3% (9th)

Source: Newsday/AP — Chiefs 31-10 Broncos

What this read does not know

  • No Friday game-status designations were available. As of the time of research, neither club had published Out/Doubtful/Questionable tags for Sunday; everything above is Wednesday and Thursday practice participation only ([FootballDB](https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/indianapolis-colts/injuries?gid=2026092014)).
  • Whether Josh Simmons plays is unresolved. He has not practiced at all this week and did not play Week 1; one beat writer wrote he does not expect Simmons in Week 2, but the team has only said he is "making progress" ([A to Z Sports](https://atozsports.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-news/chiefs-thursday-injury-report-week-2-colts-mansoor-delane-on-track-sunday-night)). If he returns, it is unconfirmed whether Benson or Jaylon Moore loses the job, since at least one analyst argued Benson should take right tackle ([SI](https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/onsi/why-kahlil-benson-deserves-the-starting-right-tackle-job-when-josh-simmons-returns)).
  • Chris Jones' Week 2 snap count is unknown. He was limited twice this week with a calf issue and played only 51% in Week 1; it is unconfirmed whether that split is injury management, a planned season-long plan, or both ([KCSN](https://www.kcsn.com/p/10-observations-from-the-chiefs-week)).
  • Alec Pierce's status is genuinely unclear. He was a full participant Wednesday and did not practice Thursday with a heel injury, after playing only 64.7% of passing snaps in Week 1 while ramping back from offseason ankle surgery ([FootballDB](https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/indianapolis-colts/injuries?gid=2026092014); [Sharp Football Analysis](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/colts-chiefs-week-2-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2026)).
  • I could not confirm which side of the field Gardner and Ward line up on, or whether Anarumo will travel Gardner with a specific receiver. Baltimore's plan was to avoid him entirely and attack the slot, and there is no reporting on how Indianapolis intends to handle Rice, who moved from a career slot role to 70–75% outside alignment in Week 1 ([Stampede Blue](https://www.stampedeblue.com/indianapolis-colts-analysis/127423/horse-power-or-horse-play-reactions-from-colts-week-1-loss-to-ravens-nevermore); [Sharp Football Analysis](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/colts-chiefs-week-2-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2026)).
  • Delane's draft slot is reported inconsistently — some outlets say Kansas City traded up to No. 6 overall, another lists him at No. 7. I could not resolve this from a primary source ([FOX4](https://www.facebook.com/fox4kc/posts/the-chiefs-said-their-6th-overall-pick-mansoor-delane-is-questionable-to-return-/1731876508294700)).
  • Grover Stewart's Thursday absence is listed as a personal matter, not an injury , and there is no reporting on whether he will be available Sunday ([FootballDB](https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/indianapolis-colts/injuries?gid=2026092014)).
  • DJ Giddens' knee is unquantified. If he is out, the Colts' RB2 behind Taylor is unconfirmed in current reporting ([FootballDB](https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/indianapolis-colts/injuries?gid=2026092014)).
  • Whether Chamarri Conner's absence changes Spagnuolo's three-safety looks is unknown. Jaden Hicks played every snap in Week 1, but the reported preference is for three safeties on the field, and the third option was flagged as an open question before the season ([Arrowhead Pride](https://www.arrowheadpride.com/kansas-city-chiefs-analysis/208753/5-biggest-x-factors-2026-chiefs); [KCSN](https://www.kcsn.com/p/10-observations-from-the-chiefs-week)).
  • All Week 1 rate stats here are one-game samples against two specific opponents — Denver produced 176 total yards, and Baltimore produced 506. Neither profile should be treated as a settled team identity.
  • --

Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: NFL.com — Walker debut · Sharp Football Analysis — Colts/Chiefs Week 2 Worksheet · AP — Colts move play-call radio to Davis-Gaither · IndyStar — Colts OL/roster · Chiefs.com — 10 Quick Facts, Week 1 · Yahoo Sports — Numbers Never Lie: 3 Chiefs stats · Chiefs.com — Week 2 Injury Report · KCSN — 10 Observations from Week 1 · ESPN — 2026 Chiefs roster projection/depth chart · PFF — 2026 NFL offensive line rankings · Pro Football Rumors — Offseason In Review: Colts · Colts.com — Gardner trade announcement

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 2 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 20
AWAY IND -1.6
vs KC -6
HOME KC +0.4
Fair (books) · KC 70% home win prob
Kalshi · KC — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Kansas City, MO PASS — no position

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Colts

30%

fair value (books)

Chiefs

70%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

38%

Madden 27

62%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Colts at Chiefs How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Colts at ChiefsSpreadQB HOLD

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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    Colts at Chiefs Kalshi spread ladder for Week 2: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Colts–Chiefs spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Colts vs Chiefs power ratings (Week 2) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Indianapolis Colts-1.624thAverage
    Kansas City Chiefs+0.416thAverage

    Colts and Chiefs season outlook

    INDKC
    Average wins6.710.6
    Make playoffs14%78%
    Win division10%48%
    Win Super Bowl0.7%4.4%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Colts vs Chiefs — player pages

    All players →

    Jonathan Taylor

    RB

    Rashee Rice

    WR

    Kenneth Walker III

    RB

    Tyler Warren

    TE

    Josh Downs

    WR

    Xavier Worthy

    WR

    Patrick Mahomes

    QB

    Travis Kelce

    TE

    Keenan Allen

    WR

    Emmett Johnson

    RB

    Daniel Jones

    QB

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: What the model sees in Colts at Chiefs

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (OT) — the graded call is above.

    The Colts travel to face the Chiefs in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Chiefs 16th of 32 at +0.4 (Average tier) and the Colts 24th at -1.6 (Average tier) — a 2.0-point gap that home field widens to a 2.5-point line on the Chiefs, 57% to win. It rates as the 7th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Chiefs offense grades +1.3 (12th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.8 (22nd) — 3.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (-0.6, 21st) meets the Chiefs defense (-1.0, 16th), a 0.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Colts grade +0.7, 4th in the league, against +0.2 (22nd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chiefs at 10.6 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Colts at 6.7 (favored in 7) — 3.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Chiefs' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Colts'.

    Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Colts' favour, plus 5 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Chiefs won 23-20 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Chiefs are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Chiefs at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Colts vs Chiefs on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC
    Market-implied (Chiefs)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Chiefs)
    held — QB pending
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 70% for the Chiefs. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Colts vs Chiefs trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueChiefsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig71% 71cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Colts vs Chiefs

    2026 NFL Predictions, Big Brother Updates and More | Kalshi, Polymarket, Markets Advice — video thumbnail36:342026 NFL Predictions, Big Brother Updates and More | Kalshi, Polymarket, Markets AdviceAug 22, 2026NFL Edge: Every 2026 Game Priced Against Kalshi (50% Off) — video thumbnail0:31NFL Edge: Every 2026 Game Priced Against Kalshi (50% Off)Aug 16, 2026

    Colts vs Chiefs — frequently asked

    Who won Colts vs Chiefs in Week 2?

    Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (OT) — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 6 (70% to win), and the Chiefs won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Colts vs Chiefs before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Chiefs by 6 points, a 70% win probability over the Colts. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Colts vs Chiefs?

    Chiefs offense (+1.3, 12th of 32) against Colts defense (-1.8, 22nd) — 3.0 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Colts (+0.7, 4th).

    How do you take a position on Colts vs Chiefs?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chiefs at 68c or below, or the Colts at 28c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Chiefs host the Colts?

    Indianapolis Colts visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.

    What does the model project for the Chiefs and Colts this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Chiefs at 10.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Colts at 6.7 (favored in 7). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Colts', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Chiefs?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Colts vs Chiefs on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20INDKC has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Chiefs?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Chiefs at 57% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Chiefs hub →Colts hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 2 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    Next up for each team

    Colts: Week 3 vs TexansModel line →Chiefs: Week 3 at DolphinsModel line →

    More Week 2 matchups

    Lions at BillsModel: Bills −4Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4Saints at RavensModel: Ravens −5.5Vikings at BearsModel: Bears −6Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7Packers at JetsModel: Packers −2.5Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3Jaguars at BroncosModel: Broncos −0.5Raiders at ChargersModel: Chargers −6.5Seahawks at CardinalsModel: Seahawks −6Commanders at CowboysModel: Cowboys −4.5Dolphins at 49ersModel: 49ers −6.5Giants at RamsModel: Rams −7.5

    Full Week 2 board →Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →

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