Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

This is the second meeting. The Chargers and Raiders already played in Week 2, and now the Chargers make the return trip in Week 14. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: -5.8 against -0.4, plus home field, equals the Chargers by 3 (59%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.

The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Chargers grade -0.1 on that side of the ball (10th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.1 (32nd) — 4.1 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th), a 1.2-point gap.

On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 2, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC West race.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Chargers at 8.2 (favored in 9) — 2.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 14th-hardest on the Chargers'.

One team has owned this series: the Chargers are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Chargers won 31-14 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Chargers at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LACLV, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Raiders 41%, Chargers 59%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Raiders contracts a buy at 36c or below and Chargers contracts a buy at 54c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Full division picture on the AFC West hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.