Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Chargers by 3 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 14 2026 — 60% to win, and the second AFC West meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LACLV yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Raiders at 35c or below (or Chargers at 55c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LAC
-0.6
LV
-6.0
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Chargers
60%
model win prob
Raiders
40%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
48%
Madden 27
52%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LACLV hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Raiders at 35c or below, or the Chargers at 55c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Chargers at Raiders
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raiders −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raiders −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raiders −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raiders −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsRaiders −6.5 → Raiders −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Chargers and Raiders already played in Week 2, and now the Chargers make the return trip in Week 14. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: -6.0 against -0.6, plus home field, equals the Chargers by 3 (60%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Chargers grade -0.1 on that side of the ball (10th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.2 (32nd) — 4.1 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-0.9, 24th) meets the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th), a 1.1-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 2, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 5.7 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Chargers at 8.1 (favored in 8) — 2.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 14th-hardest on the Chargers'.
One team has owned this series: the Chargers are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Chargers won 31-14 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Chargers at 60% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LACLV, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Raiders 40%, Chargers 60%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Raiders contracts a buy at 35c or below and Chargers contracts a buy at 55c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chargers vs Raiders on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LACLV
- Market-implied (Raiders)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Raiders)
- 40%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LACLV yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Raiders at 35c or below, or the Chargers at 55c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Chargers vs Raiders trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Raiders | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarketinternational book | 27% 27c | Open Polymarket → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Chargers vs Raiders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Chargers vs Raiders in Week 14?
Our power-rating model picks the Chargers by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Raiders, for a projected score of Chargers 22, Raiders 19 on a ratings-implied 41.0-point total. The Raiders rate 32nd of 32 (-6.0) and the Chargers 19th (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LACLV yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 2. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Chargers by 3 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Chargers vs Raiders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LACLV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Raiders at 35c or below, or the Chargers at 55c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Raiders host the Chargers?
Los Angeles Chargers visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, December 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 14, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
What does the model project for the Raiders and Chargers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 5.7 wins (favored in 1) and the Chargers at 8.1 (favored in 8). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 14th-hardest on the Chargers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Chargers vs Raiders?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LACLV yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Raiders at 35c or below or the Chargers at 55c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Chargers vs Raiders on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 14 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC13LACLV. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the Chargers?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Chargers at 60% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 2. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Chargers–Raiders, Week 2 →
More Week 14 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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