TX Senate
Texas Senate winner? (2026)
8482k contracts traded · 5713k open
SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyUpdated Aug 15, 4:19 AM UTC
2026 Senate Races — Every Seat, Every Market
The full 35-seat board with a coverage flag on each one: live, thin, or no market at all. 34 seats carry a tradeable Kalshi contract. One does not, and we name it.
Quick Answer
34 of the 35 U.S. Senate seats on the 2026 ballot have a tradeable Kalshi contract, and 13 of those 34 are returning live prices on this refresh. Louisiana is the lone seat with no market at all — listed as an empty shell with nothing priced.
The ballot: 33 regular Class 2 seats plus two Class 3 specials — Ohio (the Vance seat, now held by appointee Jon Husted) and Florida (the Rubio seat, now held by appointee Ashley Moody). Fifteen states have no 2026 Senate race.
A seat with no live card below is not a seat we dropped. Every defined race renders whether or not the venue answered, so the board can never quietly shrink to whatever came back.
- Seats on the ballot
- 35
- With a Kalshi market
- 34
- Live on this refresh
- 13
- No market at all
- 1
33 Class 2 + 2 specials
tradeable contract exists
of 34 market-backed
Louisiana
The Board — Sorted by Competitiveness
13 of 34 with live pricesTightest races first — a leading price near 50¢ is the market saying it genuinely does not know. Cards without prices are seats whose contracts returned nothing on the last refresh; they stay on the board with an honest badge rather than disappearing.
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AK Senate
Alaska Senate winner? (2026)
535k contracts traded · 376k open
FL Senate (Special)
Florida Senate winner? (2026 Special)
149k contracts traded · 91k open
MN Senate
Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)
214k contracts traded · 164k open
MS Senate
Mississippi Senate winner? (2026)
80k contracts traded · 68k open
NC Senate
North Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
1419k contracts traded · 1237k open
CO Senate
Colorado Senate winner? (2026)
15k contracts traded · 11k open
SD Senate
South Dakota Senate winner? (2026)
31k contracts traded · 20k open
NM Senate
New Mexico Senate winner? (2026)
24k contracts traded · 11k open
AL Senate
Alabama Senate winner? (2026)
8.7k contracts traded · 5.7k open
IL Senate
Illinois Senate winner? (2026)
9.8k contracts traded · 7.3k open
OR Senate
Oregon Senate winner? (2026)
6.3k contracts traded · 4.9k open
MA Senate
Massachusetts Senate winner? (2026)
3.6k contracts traded · 3.0k open
AR SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
DE SenateThin market
Rating: Safe D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
GA SenateThin market
Rating: Likely D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
IA SenateThin market
Rating: Likely R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
ID SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
KS SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
KY SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
ME SenateThin market
Rating: Lean D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
MI SenateThin market
Rating: Lean D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
MT SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NE SenateThin market
Rating: Lean R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NH SenateThin market
Rating: Lean D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NJ SenateThin market
Rating: Safe D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
OH Senate (Special)Thin market
Rating: Toss-up
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
OK SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
RI SenateThin market
Rating: Safe D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
SC SenateThin market
Rating: Likely R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
TN SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
VA SenateThin market
Rating: Safe D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
WV SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
WY SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
LA SenateNo market yet
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
Senate Control & Seat Count
Kalshi seat-count laddersRather than a binary, these let you position on the exact seat count each party holds after January 2027. The shape of the ladder tells you where the market sees the realistic ceiling and floor — divergence from the seat-by-seat board above is the signal.
D Senate Seats
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 Midterms?
60k contracts traded · 49k open
Seat-by-Seat Inventory — All 35
alphabetical · 34 market-backedThe audit itself: every seat on the 2026 ballot, its holder going in, the published rating, and whether a market exists to price it. Seats with a dedicated breakdown link through to it.
| State | Seat holder | Status | Rating | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama → | Tommy TubervilleR | Open seat | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Alaska → | Dan SullivanR | Incumbent running | Toss-up | Tradeable |
| Arkansas → | Tom CottonR | Incumbent running | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Colorado → | John HickenlooperD | Incumbent running | Safe D | Tradeable |
| Delaware → | Chris CoonsD | Incumbent running | Safe D | Tradeable |
| Florida →special | Ashley Moody (appointed 2025)R | Incumbent running | Likely R | Tradeable |
| Georgia → | Jon OssoffD | Incumbent running | Likely D | Tradeable |
| Idaho → | Jim RischR | Incumbent running | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Illinois → | Dick DurbinD | Open seat | Safe D | Tradeable |
| Iowa → | Joni ErnstR | Open seat | Likely R | Tradeable |
| Kansas → | Roger MarshallR | Incumbent running | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Kentucky → | Mitch McConnellR | Open seat | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Louisiana | Bill CassidyR | Incumbent running | Safe R | No market yet |
| Maine → | Susan CollinsR | Incumbent running | Lean D | Tradeable |
| Massachusetts → | Ed MarkeyD | Incumbent running | Safe D | Tradeable |
| Michigan → | Gary PetersD | Open seat | Lean D | Tradeable |
| Minnesota → | Tina SmithD | Open seat | Safe D | Tradeable |
| Mississippi → | Cindy Hyde-SmithR | Incumbent running | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Montana → | Steve DainesR | Open seat | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Nebraska → | Pete RickettsR | Incumbent running | Lean R | Tradeable |
| New Hampshire → | Jeanne ShaheenD | Open seat | Lean D | Tradeable |
| New Jersey → | Cory BookerD | Incumbent running | Safe D | Tradeable |
| New Mexico → | Ben Ray LujanD | Incumbent running | Safe D | Tradeable |
| North Carolina → | Thom TillisR | Open seat | Likely D | Tradeable |
| Ohio →special | Jon Husted (appointed 2025)R | Incumbent running | Toss-up | Tradeable |
| Oklahoma → | Alan ArmstrongR | Appointed | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Oregon → | Jeff MerkleyD | Incumbent running | Safe D | Tradeable |
| Rhode Island → | Jack ReedD | Incumbent running | Safe D | Tradeable |
| South Carolina → | Darline Graham Nordone (appointed 2026)R | Open seat | Likely R | Tradeable |
| South Dakota → | Mike RoundsR | Incumbent running | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Tennessee → | Bill HagertyR | Incumbent running | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Texas → | John CornynR | lost renomination — Ken Paxton (R) is the nominee | Toss-up | Tradeable |
| Virginia → | Mark WarnerD | Incumbent running | Safe D | Tradeable |
| West Virginia → | Shelley Moore CapitoR | Incumbent running | Safe R | Tradeable |
| Wyoming → | Cynthia LummisR | Open seat | Safe R | Tradeable |
2026 Senate markets — frequently asked
Which 2026 Senate races have prediction markets?
34 of the 35 Senate seats on the 2026 ballot have a tradeable Kalshi contract, including the two Class 3 specials — Ohio, for the seat JD Vance vacated, and Florida, for Marco Rubio's. The full seat-by-seat table on this page names every one, with the coverage flag we read off the live book rather than off a press release.
Which 2026 Senate seats have no market at all?
One seat: Louisiana (Bill Cassidy). The listing exists as an empty shell with no priced contracts, so there is nothing to trade and nothing to read. We re-probe it on a schedule and it flips to a live card here the moment real quotes appear. This is the sort of gap a venue never advertises about itself, which is exactly why it is worth publishing.
How many Senate seats are up in 2026?
35 — the 33 regular Class 2 seats plus two Class 3 special elections in Ohio and Florida, each filling a seat vacated mid-term and now held by an appointee. 15 states have no 2026 Senate race at all: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin. Their Class 1 and Class 3 seats are not on this ballot.
What does a "thin market" flag mean here?
That a contract is listed and quoted but is not carrying real two-way interest — no recent 24-hour volume, or open interest under our floor. A thin price is still a price, but it reflects whoever last posted a quote rather than a crowd, so we label it instead of letting it sit next to a heavily traded race as though the two carry the same weight. Safe seats are thin for the honest reason that there is nothing left to argue about.
Are Senate contract prices the same as a poll?
No, and the difference is the point. A contract at 60 cents is real money assigning a 60 percent chance, repriced continuously by traders who lose if they are wrong; a poll is a sample of stated intention at one moment. They disagree often, and where they do we show the gap rather than picking a winner — the Markets vs Pundits board puts each live Senate price next to the most recent published rating from a named forecaster.
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