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SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyUpdated Sep 29, 7:00 PM UTC

2026 Senate Races — Every Seat, Every Market

The full 35-seat board with a coverage flag on each one: live, thin, or no market at all. 35 seats carry a tradeable Kalshi contract. That is every seat on the ballot.

Quick Answer

35 of the 35 U.S. Senate seats on the 2026 ballot have a tradeable Kalshi contract, and 35 of those 35 are returning live prices on this refresh. Every seat on the ballot carries a market.

The ballot: 33 regular Class 2 seats plus two Class 3 specials — Ohio (the Vance seat, now held by appointee Jon Husted) and Florida (the Rubio seat, now held by appointee Ashley Moody). Fifteen states have no 2026 Senate race.

A seat with no live card below is not a seat we dropped. Every defined race renders whether or not the venue answered, so the board can never quietly shrink to whatever came back.

See the House board and the maps moving it →
Seats on the ballot
35

33 Class 2 + 2 specials

With a Kalshi market
35

tradeable contract exists

Live on this refresh
35

of 35 market-backed

No market at all
0

none

The Board — Sorted by Competitiveness

35 of 35 with live prices

Tightest races first — a leading price near 50¢ is the market saying it genuinely does not know. Cards without prices are seats whose contracts returned nothing on the last refresh; they stay on the board with an honest badge rather than disappearing.

Senate Control & Seat Count

Kalshi seat-count ladders

Rather than a binary, these let you position on the exact seat count each party holds after January 2027. The shape of the ladder tells you where the market sees the realistic ceiling and floor — divergence from the seat-by-seat board above is the signal.

Seat-by-Seat Inventory — All 35

alphabetical · 35 market-backed

The audit itself: every seat on the 2026 ballot, its holder going in, the published rating, and whether a market exists to price it. Seats with a dedicated breakdown link through to it.

Every U.S. Senate seat on the 2026 ballot with its seat holder, rating, and prediction-market coverage status.
StateSeat holderStatusRatingMarket
Alabama →Tommy TubervilleROpen seatSafe RTradeable
Alaska →Dan SullivanRIncumbent runningToss-upTradeable
Arkansas →Tom CottonRIncumbent runningSafe RTradeable
Colorado →John HickenlooperDIncumbent runningSafe DTradeable
Delaware →Chris CoonsDIncumbent runningSafe DTradeable
Florida →specialAshley Moody (appointed 2025)RIncumbent runningSafe RTradeable
Georgia →Jon OssoffDIncumbent runningLikely DTradeable
Idaho →Jim RischRIncumbent runningSafe RTradeable
Illinois →Dick DurbinDOpen seatSafe DTradeable
Iowa →Joni ErnstROpen seatToss-upTradeable
Kansas →Roger MarshallRIncumbent runningLean RTradeable
Kentucky →Mitch McConnellROpen seatSafe RTradeable
Louisiana →Bill CassidyROpen seatSafe RTradeable
Maine →Susan CollinsRIncumbent runningToss-upTradeable
Massachusetts →Ed MarkeyDIncumbent runningSafe DTradeable
Michigan →Gary PetersDOpen seatToss-upTradeable
Minnesota →Tina SmithDOpen seatLikely DTradeable
Mississippi →Cindy Hyde-SmithRIncumbent runningSafe RTradeable
Montana →Steve DainesROpen seatSafe RTradeable
Nebraska →Pete RickettsRIncumbent runningLikely RTradeable
New Hampshire →Jeanne ShaheenDOpen seatToss-upTradeable
New Jersey →Cory BookerDIncumbent runningSafe DTradeable
New Mexico →Ben Ray LujanDIncumbent runningSafe DTradeable
North Carolina →Thom TillisROpen seatLean DTradeable
Ohio →specialJon Husted (appointed 2025)RIncumbent runningToss-upTradeable
Oklahoma →Alan ArmstrongRAppointedSafe RTradeable
Oregon →Jeff MerkleyDIncumbent runningSafe DTradeable
Rhode Island →Jack ReedDIncumbent runningSafe DTradeable
South Carolina →Darline Graham Nordone (appointed 2026)RIncumbent runningLikely RTradeable
South Dakota →Mike RoundsRIncumbent runningSafe RTradeable
Tennessee →Bill HagertyRIncumbent runningSafe RTradeable
Texas →John CornynRlost renomination — Ken Paxton (R) is the nomineeToss-upTradeable
Virginia →Mark WarnerDIncumbent runningSafe DTradeable
West Virginia →Shelley Moore CapitoRIncumbent runningSafe RTradeable
Wyoming →Cynthia LummisROpen seatSafe RTradeable

2026 Senate markets — frequently asked

Which 2026 Senate races have prediction markets?

35 of the 35 Senate seats on the 2026 ballot have a tradeable Kalshi contract, including the two Class 3 specials — Ohio, for the seat JD Vance vacated, and Florida, for Marco Rubio's. The full seat-by-seat table on this page names every one, with the coverage flag we read off the live book rather than off a press release.

How many Senate seats are up in 2026?

35 — the 33 regular Class 2 seats plus two Class 3 special elections in Ohio and Florida, each filling a seat vacated mid-term and now held by an appointee. 15 states have no 2026 Senate race at all: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin. Their Class 1 and Class 3 seats are not on this ballot.

What does a "thin market" flag mean here?

That a contract is listed and quoted but is not carrying real two-way interest — no recent 24-hour volume, or open interest under our floor. A thin price is still a price, but it reflects whoever last posted a quote rather than a crowd, so we label it instead of letting it sit next to a heavily traded race as though the two carry the same weight. Safe seats are thin for the honest reason that there is nothing left to argue about.

Are Senate contract prices the same as a poll?

No, and the difference is the point. A contract at 60 cents is real money assigning a 60 percent chance, repriced continuously by traders who lose if they are wrong; a poll is a sample of stated intention at one moment. They disagree often, and where they do we show the gap rather than picking a winner — the Markets vs Pundits board puts each live Senate price next to the most recent published rating from a named forecaster.

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